2019-20 Offseason Rumors/General Chit-Chat

[Backtobanks]

 

why do you do this

 

Because if a 22 year-old hit 31 HR in his rookie season for the Cubs, you would be gushing about how great he is.

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in an environment everyone with a pulse and and couple hundred PAs hits in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ head as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

As I posted before, I never said he was a great player and MLB has become a place where one-dimensional players are on every team. The AL has paid them a lot of money and extended their careers by having the DH. At 22 years old, it's kind of hard to predict what he'll do in the future.

[imb]

i feel like im reading posts from 1998

[squally1313]

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in a environment everyone with a pulse and and couple hundred PAs in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ head as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

Just a reminder that this guy hit .311/.359/.569 in the minors over almost 1800 PAs before graduating by 22. The lack of walks, he only topped doubled digit walk rates in 2017 at High A, will hurt him but guys like Nelson Cruz and JD Martinez have put together some really productive careers with similar issues

 

The only time Nelson Cruz topped 3 wins, he either provided positive defensive value (2009 and 2010), or had a wRC of at least 137. I'm assuming you'd agree that we can throw out the possibility of option A. There were 19 guys in 2019 that put up a wRC of 137. Eloy had a K%-BB% of 20.6%. The only hitters with a wRC above 137 and that percentage above 10% were Cruz (4.3 fWAR), Alonso (4.8 fWAR), Austin Meadows (4 fWAR), and Moncada (5.7 fWAR). It's not just the walks, it's the strikeouts too, and it's really hard to improve both without it impacting your productivity on the balls you actually put in play. Yeah, I know he's a rookie, but I don't see how you can look at Austin Meadow's line and think Eloy has a realistic chance to improve upon that.

[squally1313]

The only time Nelson Cruz topped 3 wins, he either provided positive defensive value (2009 and 2010), or had a wRC of at least 137. I'm assuming you'd agree that we can throw out the possibility of option A. There were 19 guys in 2019 that put up a wRC of 137. Eloy had a K%-BB% of 20.6%. The only hitters with a wRC above 137 and that percentage above 10% were Cruz (4.3 fWAR), Alonso (4.8 fWAR), Austin Meadows (4 fWAR), and Moncada (5.7 fWAR). It's not just the walks, it's the strikeouts too, and it's really hard to improve both without it impacting your productivity on the balls you actually put in play. Yeah, I know he's a rookie, but I don't see how you can look at Austin Meadow's line and think Eloy has a realistic chance to improve upon that.

 

I understand where this is coming from since we're not talking an insignificant sample size at the ML level. OTOH we're still talking the rookie year K rate of a 22 YO that owned an 18% K rate in the minors over almost 1800 PAs. It's a tough sell that he's now forever a 25+% K hitter when the vast majority of his pro career says otherwise

 

He was "only" a 26% K guy in 2019, so no, not trying to claim that he's definitely a 25+% K guy forever, though I don't know how minor league rates typically translate to the pros. I'm just saying that it's really hard to put elite offensive numbers with significantly improved K-BB rates (somewhere in the low teens), and you're betting on either a significant improve in one or both of those rates, which you don't really see the potential for in his MILB numbers, or becoming one of the top two or three contact hitters in baseball (by that I mean, damage done when contact is made) just to get to somewhere in the 4 fWAR range.

[Cubswin11]

 

Because if a 22 year-old hit 31 HR in his rookie season for the Cubs, you would be gushing about how great he is.

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in an environment where everyone with a pulse and a couple hundred PAs hits in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ year as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

As I posted before, I never said he was a great player and MLB has become a place where one-dimensional players are on every team. The AL has paid them a lot of money and extended their careers by having the DH. At 22 years old, it's kind of hard to predict what he'll do in the future.

You literally called him a superstar slugger on the last page. Sure it’s hard to be 100% certain what his future brings but seeing his minor league production, injury history, knowing his clear limitations and getting some major league numbers on him now it isn’t too hard to be relatively certain what he becomes looking at what other guys with his profiles typically do. He needs to take leaps he’s probably not capable of (increase BB rate, lower K rate, play good defense and be a good base runner) to turn in to anything that isn’t perennially a slight above average player by WAR.

[Cubswin11]

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in a environment everyone with a pulse and and couple hundred PAs in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ head as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

Just a reminder that this guy hit .311/.359/.569 in the minors over almost 1800 PAs before graduating by 22. The lack of walks, he only topped doubled digit walk rates in 2017 at High A, will hurt him but guys like Nelson Cruz and JD Martinez have put together some really productive careers with similar issues

So a .928 OPS as a minor leaguer with bad COF defense or DH. Soler and Austin Meadows were both at .922 OPS this year and seem like a decent comp to him with their profiles if he’s able to OPS at the major league level he did at MiLB level (which is likely being generous). Soler was at 3.6 WAR and Meadows was at 4. They both walked 3-4% more and Meadows struck out less, Soler was roughly the same. Eloy is also a far worse fielder than Meadows and him and Soler are probably about the same. It’s just a really hard profile to be “superstar” or “elite” valuable also throwing in Eloy has already missed time in multiple seasons with injuries. But that’s not a bad thing either, a 2-4 win player has plenty of use and is a perfectly fine outcome for nearly every prospect.

[Cubswin11]

So a .928 OPS as a minor leaguer with bad COF defense or DH.

 

Cool spin, but a .928 *career* MiL OPS from a guy who did it all from 17-22, including .400+ wOBAs in AA at 20-21, is the good stuff

What am I trying to spin? You threw out his minor league slash line and I gave two pretty close comps to his profile at the major league level who OPS’d his MiLB OPS +/- just this past season and they weren’t super valuable or “elite” players. It seems pretty generous to assume a guy is going to hit at or above his MiLB OPS/slash line at the MLB level (at least over the course of his career, maybe a peak year or two he does). The whole point of this is showing that while he is a plenty good hitter it’s pretty hard for him to ever be super valuable with his profile.

 

Schwarbwer and Bryant (and this is just eyeballing the numbers because I don’t care to do the math) appear to have averaged over a 1.000 OPS for their MiLB careers. Nobody expected them to be at that or exceed it at the major league level. That’s insane. Sure it’s indicative they’re likely a good MLB hitter but their MiLB OPS is not the expected baseline or production level at the MLB level. There’s nearly a 100% certainty there’s going to be a discount.

[Post Count Padder]

Just looking at what teams still need, the Twins have struck out on pitching and have a great team and shaky rotation as it stands. Would something like Chatwood for Jake Cave be something that interests anyone?

 

OR we could go hog wild and do Quintana, Almora and a prospect or two for Buxton.

[Cubswin11]

What am I trying to spin?

 

A .928 OPS into not being impressive before working down from there. Even with no context but league by league stats, that's elite

Never said it wasn’t impressive, it is. The point was to be generous and show that even if he OPS’s in MLB what he did in MiLB the ceiling is still a limited player in MLB assuming he remains a DH/bad OF defender with an all bat type profile (which likely won’t be as good as his MiLB OPS). All indicators point to that being the case, and again this is still a plenty fine player and I’m not saying he’s going to be bad or bust out or anything. All I’m saying is I don’t see a super elite/valuable superstar type player in him, there’s less than like a 5% chance of that happening to me.

 

What’s your argument that he isn’t a 2-3 win player on average with a ~4 win ceiling? Other than “young for his league?” You’ve been given real examples of likely MLB comps showing his path to being a 4+ guy on average/annually likely isn’t happening.

 

Just to pick on one of those comps you're picking out of a hat: if Jorge Soler can pull 4 WAR out of the air at 27 after years of disappointment, minor/nagging injuries, and a less dominant overall pro track record, why are we capping Jimenez as a 2-3 now 2-4 (at least it's creeping up!) at 22? Because minor league numbers don't translate 1 to 1? Not how anyone believes or expects it to work anyway! That's why setting a nice high bar with the bat combined with his outstanding ARLs is such a big deal!

 

Soler and Meadows aren’t “picked out of a hat” they’re pretty darn close major league comps that currently do things better than Eloy (even better at MLB level than his MiLB numbers). I’m capping him at 2-3 with a ~4 win year being his likely ceiling because looking around the league comping his profile (or even better ones) that 2-3 wins with a 4ish ceiling is exactly what you consistently see.

 

 

Very generic knock, being a plenty good hitter or whatever non-elite or dominant words/phrases are OK to use is a great, straightforward, and most sure path to being super valuable

It’s not a generic knock or words, I’ve told you what I see him being value wise. A 2-3 win guy on average most likely with a ~4 win ceiling. That’s “plenty good but not elite” to me. Elite is being consistently at 5+ on average with some 6-8+ win seasons mixed in, to me, it’s hard to see Eloy ever being that.

[Derwood]

Meadows was a 4.0 fWAR player at age 23. Eloy was a 1.9 at age 22

[weis21]

Cubs wouldn’t have the money to pay Eloy this year anyway so unsure why we are even talking about this tbh

[Tim]

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in a environment everyone with a pulse and and couple hundred PAs in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ head as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

Just a reminder that this guy hit .311/.359/.569 in the minors over almost 1800 PAs before graduating by 22. The lack of walks, he only topped doubled digit walk rates in 2017 at High A, will hurt him but guys like Nelson Cruz and JD Martinez have put together some really productive careers with similar issues

Would you term either to be a "superstar"?

[Derwood]

Meadows was a 4.0 fWAR player at age 23. Eloy was a 1.9 at age 22

 

Meadows was 24 in 2019, put up .2 fWAR at 23

 

While shuttling between AAA for two different clubs.

 

How about we compare first full years instead of same age years

[Derwood]

How about we compare first full years instead of same age years

 

You couldn't even get Meadows' age right and that was your whole thing in the previous post, so I assume "we" is me? I will politely pass

 

Would you term either to be a "superstar"?

 

Nah, but in their defense it's basically impossible to market corner or DH bats who break out in their mid-late 20s as superstars unless they're David Ortiz or Edgar Martinez. Would I consider them elite hitters? Heck yeah, they're 9th and 11th/9th and 12th in wOBA/wRC+ among guys who took as many or more PAs this decade

 

So you think every player’s age 22 season is the same? Or comparable? For reasons? Or maybe their first full year in the majors is a better indicator?

 

Oh, wait, I’m arguing with the person who spent a dozen posts trying to convince us of Almora’s value (lololol)

[Derwood]

Oh, you spent all those words talking about Almora as a joke?

 

Sure, ok

[17 Seconds]

 

Because if a 22 year-old hit 31 HR in his rookie season for the Cubs, you would be gushing about how great he is.

If he literally brought nothing else of value to the table to being a good baseball player I doubt it. Especially in an environment everyone with a pulse and and couple hundred PAs hits in the 20s to 30+ HRs. He’s kinda capped as a 2-3 win player with his profile, maybe he has a peak 4+ head as an outlier. For example, JD Martinez hit .304/.383/.557 with 36 HRs with double the walk rate and about 1/3rd fewer Ks than Eloy last year and was only worth 3.2 WAR.

 

As I posted before, I never said he was a great player and MLB has become a place where one-dimensional players are on every team. The AL has paid them a lot of money and extended their careers by having the DH. At 22 years old, it's kind of hard to predict what he'll do in the future.

 

you just said he looks to be a "superstar slugger"

[toonsterwu]

I'm mildly fascinated skimming through this entire discussion, or I'm a little bored up at 3am.

 

My general thoughts on Eloy are:

 

a) His approach always made me wonder if that K rate might bump up a little. I think this year is more a young bat getting tested in the bigs, but I recall reading somewhere that the scouting report on him in the minors was to attack him with high fastballs and soft away stuff. Well, MLB pitchers are going to be a lot more refined.

 

b) I once thought Eloy would be at least a slightly below average RF. It looks like he's stuck in LF. In terms of value, that's not good for him. Supposedly, the arm has regressed so dramatically that he may be more a DH guy than a regular LF. I gotta think they can get him on some sort of program to build some arm strength. With that size, it's hard to see him getting better as he ages.

 

c) Back on offense ... I think the thing that you hope on in regards to Eloy becoming better than say Meadows or Soler, offensively, is that, by most accounts, that bat speed for Eloy is at another level. Don't get me wrong, both those guys have solid bat speed, but most reports seem to suggest that Eloy has maintained that next level bat speed that made him stand out.

 

d) If you are betting on Eloy, the bat speed, plus the fact that he has steadily improved and learned, are positive indicators for him. Keep in mind, when he came over, he really wasn't that polished - he was more an exciting toolsy upside guy (I mean, Gleyber was more polished than him when they entered the system). By most accounts Eloy has worked hard and kept improving.

 

____

 

If I'm betting, I think Eloy will improve offensively, to the point where Eloy probably has a couple monster, elite offensive seasons, and may have some monster offensive seasons that he could be an elite player within that year, but the limitations defensively will likely significantly blunt his value to the point where it's debatable if he's a consistently elite player, if that makes sense (totally different players, but think Bryce Harper's WAR's ... I could see Eloy having such a monster offensive season, like Bryce's 2015, where his defensive value just isn't that big of a concern). Now, if he ever gets Juan Soto discipline, then who knows.

[squally1313]

Bryce’s 2015 was the highest wRC of the entire decade for any player, and its one where he put up a 19% walk rate. In what way is that even close to a realistic offensive season for Eloy, or really anyone not named Trout at this point.

[Cubswin11]

If we have to get below the LT, Willy and Q to the Angels for Brandon Marsh, Griffin Canning and 1-2 other prospects is something I could live with. Canning can go in the rotation this year, Marsh is potentially the CF’er in second half 2020 or some time in 2021. Trading off Willy and Q gets us about $12 million below the LT, fwiw.

[Cubswin11]

If we have to get below the LT, Willy and Q to the Angels for Brandon Marsh, Griffin Canning and 1-2 other prospects is something I could live with. Canning can go in the rotation this year, Marsh is potentially the CF’er in second half 2020 or some time in 2021. Trading off Willy and Q gets us about $12 million below the LT, fwiw.

 

JMO maybe Cubs should throw in another good player. Is that really fair to the Angels? Cubs are getting min 12 years of sweet precious control and giving up just 4

If they want a Zagunis, Giambrone, Underwood, Maples to even that out go nuts. They’re getting far more certainty and the most value right now. Plus Willy is an underpriced asset for at least 2 of the next 3 years.

[Cubswin11]

I don't get the Brandon Marsh hype. He's a good prospect for the Angels but I wouldn't even trade Schwarber or Happ for him let alone the .350 OBP/20+ HR ultra cheap starting catcher

He is a pretty solid athlete by all accounts, CF is so thin across MLB right now that’s a selling point in and of itself. His stat line in AA was pretty solid .300/.383/.428, 11%+ BB rate, manageable K rate, 18 SB, 7 HR, .370+ wOBA, 137 wRC+. I can see a little good season JBJ in him, Odubel Herrera, good versions of Fowler, maybe some Braves year versions of Heyward. Canning is also a major league ready SP that is a 4/5 right now with some middle rotation upside.

[Cubswin11]

He is a pretty solid athlete by all accounts, CF is so thin across MLB right now that’s a selling point in and of itself. His stat line in AA was pretty solid .300/.383/.428, 11%+ BB rate, manageable K rate, 18 SB, 7 HR, .370+ wOBA, 137 wRC+. I can see a little good season JBJ in him, Odubel Herrera, good versions of Fowler, maybe some Braves year versions of Heyward. Canning is also a major league ready SP that is a 4/5 right now with some middle rotation upside.

 

If Derwood is still wondering what the dozen posts defending Almora were spoofing - no doubt he is - look no further! I horsefeathers knew it - team need is as much a factor in selling an actual cheap prime aged All Star talent with the bat to back it up. JMO using your best and most real world valuable stuff to shop for needs *and* that need isn't even fixed immediately is just something that cannot add up in my head

 

Marsh is coming off his best pro season after a very meh year in the Cal, for sure the most friendly non-PCL league in the minors if not outright. He's not an ARL guy so his stats kinda are what they are for the level, and yeah his line in the SL was good this year but again also the best he's ever done and without much power for a guy very close to typical peak years for power. He's nowhere near the prospect or player Heyward or even Bradley Jr. were at the same stage, and is yet another guy we have to push back dates for to accommodate the big potential breakout that has to come because because.

 

And if the next step would be something about the juiced ball giving him a boost...Why not Cubs? How does that only seem to work in the favor for non-Cubs who are also worse than current Cubs? Disregard this part if juiced ball wasn't going to come up, just going on a hunch

I think he’s a pretty solid prospect, I like what I’ve read on him and the year he’s coming off of. He also was a 2 sport guy in HS and had an injury in 2017, there could be more in there as he’s now fully in on baseball. Him and Canning is a nice package for Willy and Q, imo, with another thing or two coming back. Especially if we must get below the LT.

 

If you don’t like him for whatever reasons I get it, I’m not dead set on wanting to do this. Just something I could live with hearing what we’ve heard we may have to do with moving guys and money and the type of prospect trade targets (CF and SP) we’ve heard they’d target. I don’t care to really discuss this more than that.

Edited December 28, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

I think he’s a pretty solid prospect, I like what I’ve read on him and the year he’s coming off of. He also was a 2 sport guy in HS and had an injury in 2017, there could be more in there as he’s now fully in on baseball. Him and Canning is a nice package for Willy and Q, imo, with another thing or two coming back. Especially if we must get below the LT. I don’t care to really discuss this more than that.

 

Just one more question!!! Are things better than assets or the same?

Decide for yourself

[Cubswin11]

2/17 seems like a healthy deal for a 31 year old who’s season ended with a broken foot and was a 1 win player.

[Bertz]

2/17 seems like a healthy deal for a 31 year old who’s season ended with a broken foot and was a 1 win player.

 

I still don't think Schwarber is likely to be dealt but the fact that a Corey Dickerson is getting 2/17 probably implies that his trade value is significantly higher than I've been thinking.