2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

These are all the vague comments Jesse needs to run the KB is being aggressively shopped and likely traded for two months of click bait articles

 

 

It doesn't make much sense, but I have had a growing feeling that KB is going to be traded. I don't buy that he is being aggressively shopped, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if they are very open to moving him.

I think they’d be open to moving him if the right deal came up, I don’t think they’ll spend much time actively doing it either. It just takes a lot of stuff to likely fall in to place to actually move him.

[Rex Buckingham]

If KB is moved, it's because someone came and said "Here's what we will give you" and then Theo convinced them to add another piece or two. They arent calling and asking "What will you give us for our MVP 3rd baseman?"

[d_money]

If KB is moved, it's because someone came and said "Here's what we will give you" and then Theo convinced them to add another piece or two. They arent calling and asking "What will you give us for our MVP 3rd baseman?"

Unless he changes his mind about hitting FA, I believe he will be moved. I have no doubt he’s been approached to sign an extension.

 

If the Cubs take a horsefeathers in the first half of 2020 - he will be moved, as some team will see him as the final piece or whatever.

[Thusly Boned]

I almost expect him to be moved this offseason, especially if the FO feels like he is reticent to sign an extension.

 

Theo said something during the presser on Monday that caught my attention - he seemed to imply that there were players they may have liked to trade last offseason who they didn't because of their relatively poor performance in 2018, but who also enjoyed rebounds in 2019, and how that changes the dynamic this offseason.

 

That brings Contreras, Schwarber, and KB to mind. And if KB really intends to fully explore free agency, now might really be the time. Now I feel like the FO is savvy enough not to "aggressively shop" one of their top young players, but I would not be at all surprised if they intend to make substantive changes and have some expectancy that they will use KB to those ends.

 

Now you could say "if the right deal comes along..." about anyone on the roster, but I would put KB in my top 3 high profile trade candidates on the team. A lot of "gut feeling" for me there, but it isn't as unthinkable to me as it would have been a year or two ago. Trading him now would maximize his remaining trade value.

 

 

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

[Cubswin11]

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

The players aren't as good as we think they are to naturally make adjustments and the coaches and advanced scouting/FO don't prepare them well enough for the day to day stuff (like getting our butts shoved vs Gio, Peter Lambert, Mahle, etc). The FO/Coaching changes on some of this stuff is as important, if not more, than the player turnover we expect.

[Bertz]

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

 

I think it's about how much of our lineup has the same weakness, the high fastball/low curveballs style that's come in vogue with teams like the Astros. And so if you draw a pitcher who is built in a certain mold (e.g. Go Gonzalez to CW11's point), he can run roughshod through the lineup even if he's not particularly good.

 

This is basically what Happ spent his time in Iowa fixing, and IMO dovetails with Theo's repeated statements about development needing to continue at the MLB level.

 

This is also why we should probably expect Castellanos back, because he gives the lineup a different look. It might also be part of why Almora got such a long leash, because back when he could actually hit he was similarly complimentary in this way to the core part of the lineup.

[UK]

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

 

I think it's about how much of our lineup has the same weakness, the high fastball/low curveballs style that's come in vogue with teams like the Astros. And so if you draw a pitcher who is built in a certain mold (e.g. Go Gonzalez to CW11's point), he can run roughshod through the lineup even if he's not particularly good.

 

This is basically what Happ spent his time in Iowa fixing, and IMO dovetails with Theo's repeated statements about development needing to continue at the MLB level.

 

This is also why we should probably expect Castellanos back, because he gives the lineup a different look. It might also be part of why Almora got such a long leash, because back when he could actually hit he was similarly complimentary in this way to the core part of the lineup.

 

The same strengths and gameplans were there in 2016. Health and too much dead weight hurt the offense more than similar styles. The Twins have a one dimensional approach as well.

 

CF was a dead spot, 2B was a dead spot, RF was until the end of July then factor injuries to KB, Javy, Rizzo, Contreras, etc. and the approach didn't lead to lack of production, lack of talent and health did.

 

 

The only approach that was flawed was building a pen that did not having anyone who could strike someone out.

[Backtobanks]

I suppose Bryant is a trade possibility, but a an OBP of .382 seems to be what the Cubs need rather than what they want to get rid of.

[We Got The Whole 9]

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

The players aren't as good as we think they are to naturally make adjustments and the coaches and advanced scouting/FO don't prepare them well enough for the day to day stuff (like getting our butts shoved vs Gio, Peter Lambert, Mahle, etc). The FO/Coaching changes on some of this stuff is as important, if not more, than the player turnover we expect.

 

Agreed. And if a pitcher can tunnel we really fall off the rails. Pretty much every hitter was befuddled by the high fastball/breaking ball in the dirt combo. The numbers against curves and sliders were really bad for an offense that was supposed to be as good as ours was expected to be. A lot of that can be countered with proper preparation. I remember early in Joe's tenure he said something to the effect of not wanting his hitters to get bogged down in the details and wanting them to go up there with a clear mind. He was not a proponent of the percentages and tendencies being fed to hitters and I think that's part of the reason that guys stagnated in their development.

[Thusly Boned]

I know what he meant, I suppose I meant to ask who you guys think he was referring to in particular, or if the issue is more systemic.

 

I think it is an issue that can be fixed (I feel like Schwarber seemed to be prone to a particular approach early in the season and far less so later), but I wonder if they have identified players who they would simply rather move than fix.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One other thing that Theo talked about was Cubs hitters who were too easy for opponents to game plan for. Not necessarily KB related, and a couple of guys immediately come to my mind, but what does everyone make of that?

The players aren't as good as we think they are to naturally make adjustments and the coaches and advanced scouting/FO don't prepare them well enough for the day to day stuff (like getting our butts shoved vs Gio, Peter Lambert, Mahle, etc). The FO/Coaching changes on some of this stuff is as important, if not more, than the player turnover we expect.

 

Agreed. And if a pitcher can tunnel we really fall off the rails. Pretty much every hitter was befuddled by the high fastball/breaking ball in the dirt combo. The numbers against curves and sliders were really bad for an offense that was supposed to be as good as ours was expected to be. A lot of that can be countered with proper preparation. I remember early in Joe's tenure he said something to the effect of not wanting his hitters to get bogged down in the details and wanting them to go up there with a clear mind. He was not a proponent of the percentages and tendencies being fed to hitters and I think that's part of the reason that guys stagnated in their development.

 

Pretty much every hitter is going to be susceptible to tunneling, that’s why it’s so attractive as a concept. And the Cubs had above average pitch values against curves and sliders. I think there’s something to the idea that the Cubs had too many hitters with similar weaknesses, but chalking it up to lack of preparation or going back to the “they can’t hit curves” well is overly simplistic at best.

[Cubswin11]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[ConstableRabbit]

RIP Tom

[Cubswin11]

Hot take: The whole thing about wanting to trade guys last offseason but holding off still sounds like Contreras to me. They weren't trading Bryant at his absolute lowest, and Contreras walked away from last season the least harmed in reputation despite his .647 OPS in the second half plus the usual thing where the SPs hate throwing to him. I believe they held off because he still would have been the *second* best C traded in the offseason and third best player plus he still had a min salary season or two I forget

I don’t think this is a hot take at all. Both were at their lowest last year and both, reasonably or even exceeded, the rebound expectations. Contreras hits ARB1 this year and has 3 years of control, so he’ll still be cheap for 2 more years the third year he’s probably in the $12-16 mil range I’d guess. He probably goes in the $2-4 mil range this year, $5-8 mil range the next year and $10-15 the final year.

[Cubswin11]

Thoughts on Julio Teheran for 2020 5th starter? Braves left him off the NLDS roster. One year deal at 29 if they pick up his option, could maybe probably get him for some full season pitching combo like Tyson Miller and Riley Thompson

Tehran horsefeathering sucks

[Cubswin11]

Thoughts on Julio Teheran for 2020 5th starter? Braves left him off the NLDS roster. One year deal at 29 if they pick up his option, could maybe probably get him for some full season pitching combo like Tyson Miller and Riley Thompson

Tehran horsefeathering sucks

 

Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular

I’d rather roll the dice on Adbert, Mills, Chatwood, cheap 1 year FA than give up assets for Tehran with 1 year left. Velo down, walks a ton of dudes, doesn’t really miss bats. Not worth the time, money, energy and assets to pursue a deal for him. If he’s a throw in, in a Willy or KB deal with them, sure. But I don’t think it’s worth going out of the way to get him.

[Bertz]

Thoughts on Julio Teheran for 2020 5th starter? Braves left him off the NLDS roster. One year deal at 29 if they pick up his option, could maybe probably get him for some full season pitching combo like Tyson Miller and Riley Thompson

Tehran horsefeathering sucks

 

Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular

 

Steamer Projected ERA, right now:

 

Teheran - 5.19

Mills - 4.66

Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair)

[Bertz]

 

Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular

 

Steamer Projected ERA, right now:

 

Teheran - 5.19

Mills - 4.66

Alzolay - 4.22 (as a reliever to be fair)

 

Over 108, 37, and 5 IP? No clue how this works tbh

 

The playing time is probably based on the FG depth charts, which given where we are on the calendar are probably pretty nonsensical. But the rate stats are our best public estimates of guys' current true talent.

[Cubswin11]

 

Don't get me wrong, he's no Adbert Alzolay or Alec Mills, but a healthy 29 YO on a one year deal who can fairly reliably deliver a couple WAR and ~180 innings is pretty practical if unspectacular

 

I’d rather roll the dice on Adbert, Mills, Chatwood, cheap 1 year FA than give up assets for Tehran with 1 year left. Velo down, walks a ton of dudes, doesn’t really miss bats. Not worth the time, money, energy and assets to pursue a deal for him. If he’s a throw in, in a Willy or KB deal with them, sure. But I don’t think it’s worth going out of the way to get him.

 

Sure, also still threw up what would be a strong season for a 5th starter for like the 6th time in his career. If he's injured then yeah, scratch the idea, but not sure how Teheran on a one year in some throwaway pitching trade is any worse than the junk FA options behind Cole. I'm also weirded out by how easy it is to flip between Cubs in-house pitching being trash to them all being assets and guys who need to be garaunteed jobs no matter how little they've done

If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jon Gray and/or Pivetta though.

[Cubswin11]

What about Eaton in the OF if the Nats let hm go? He's got two team options for '20-'21 at $9.5 and 10.5 million

Why would the Nats let him go?

[d_money]

If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jobs Gray and/or Pivetta though.

 

As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please

Let’s face it - don’t we already have enough guys in the rotation who are 4/5 in Q and Lester?

[squally1313]

If we’re spending money/resources on the rotation I’d hope it’s for more than an adequate 5th starter who probably has little upside left and has a $12 million salary. Just run with internal options over him or spend $4 mil or whatever on a FA if we are dumpster diving. Do my idea of trading for Jobs Gray and/or Pivetta though.

 

As a guy who's been suggesting Pivetta since Hammel left, I would much prefer him to Teheran. He's probably similarly attainable, so yes please. I have trouble believing the Rockies are moving Gray anymore but sure yeah, if the Cubs can land him then do it. I'm all about landing a post-hype guy like Gray. OTOH if the choice is between Alzolay/Mills and throwing a couple low minor arms or Tyson Miller for a year of a much more reliable BOR arm still in his 20s then yeah, Teheran please

Let’s face it - don’t we already have enough guys in the rotation who are 4/5 in Q and Lester?

 

Q was worth 3.5 WAR this year, even with his miserable September, which was good for 26th best in baseball. But yes, definitely, he's a 4th or 5th starter. On a related note, good luck to Aaron Nola and Clayton Kershaw, both guys who put up a lower WAR this year (in more innings) in their fight to make the rotation next year.

[BigSlick]

I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you

[Tedward]

I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you

 

Me too. bWAR has him at a 0.7 ... Not sure why there's such a wide disparity... Hendricks for example is pretty consistent between the two WAR models

[Bertz]

On the rotation, something to consider is that we will have a lot more decent options at Iowa than in years past. We're probably looking at an Iowa rotation of:

 

Alzolay

Abbott

Miller

Graveman

Rea

 

None of those look like immediately incredible options, but all except Rea (who probably sucks, but did put up a sub 4 ERA in this year's insane PCL) are legitimately interesting, in addition to Mills who will be in the pen. I'd specifically like to call out Graveman, who was a solid league average starter who many people liked as a breakout pick prior to surgery. With his mid 90's sinker and high spin breaking ball looks a lot like Pirates era Charlie Morton.

 

In previous years, we'd have our 5 starters, Montgomery in the pen, and a guy like Rea at Iowa and that was it. So it was imperative that our worst starter was someone who was still pretty reliably okay like Hammel. Now though, if we're not bringing in someone actually good, I want the 5th starter spot to have flexibility. I'd rather be able to cycle through these guys than lock into someone who's going to guarantee us 1 WAR.