Chicago Bears offseason

[Brian]

I have to assume they are valuing all first rounders as the same. The first 1st rounder the Raiders are getting is much worse than they thought it was going to be and there is a chance that the 2nd 1st rounder is going to be pretty close to the 2nd rounder they sent the Bears.

[David]

it comes down to the fact that analytics naturally (and logically) favor a process driven approach. they value those draft picks extremely highly, even with the inherent risk of missing on them built in to that value. whatever process they used to come to that conclusion obviously saw the two picks as more valuable than mack and the opportunity cost lost when tying up the salary cap space. the trade, in this case, is being judged by what was known at the time it was made and what the range of likely outcomes were. the outcome (and all that we already know about it) isn't relevant in their evaluation.

 

in the real world, due to a ton of external variables that aren't necessarily properly accounted for, though, it's not always as simple as saying do what the math says. the real world isn't a poker game with easily defined probabilities on everything.

 

and, either way, knowing what we know now, an entire season and several months later, who cares? both things can be true.

[Bertz]

So MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston has an award for best transaction of the year. It went to the Khalil Mack trade... for the Raiders.

 

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For those that dont subscribe can you describe why?

 

Guessing maybe they undervalue the impact of defensive lineman and maybe peg a certain amount of production to the draft picks the Raiders will use and that will be more value than Mack?

 

Even if thats true

 

1) You still have to make the picks

2) The Bears 1st round pick the next 2 years wouldnt have helped them win the division for the Bears.

 

So even if you believe the Raiders "won" the trade, at the very least the Bears did too.

 

They don't go into much detail in the article. It was mostly just "draft picks are good."

 

That being said. without having read the actual study I would be very skeptical of:

 

A) The authors' ability to evaluate Mack's value on the field (because it's still super hard to evaluate non QBs in an objective way)

B) Whether the authors considered the Bears place on the win curve

C) To Brian's point the relative range of the Bears and Raiders picks. I.e. In next year's draft it's likely that the the difference the between the 1st rounder we sent out and the second rounder we're getting back is less than 15 spots

 

Also, I believe like you alluded to the current NFL SABR community seems to be moving more towards "you can scheme a pass rush so actually the secondary is way more important."

[David]

hmmm

 

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[minnesotacubsfan]

hmmm

 

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Hes the first guy in the slide show, I doubt it means anything. How could they afford him anyway?

[UMFan83]

 

I know he shanked that punt in the playoff game and certainly isn’t the best punter in the league but I think you could do worse at punter so it’s fine

[Brian]

Bears/Packers officially will open the season

 

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[Chocolate Milk]

Howard traded to Eagles.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Howard traded to Eagles.

 

6th rounder that can become a 5th

[We Got The Whole 9]

Feels like a pretty shitty trade. Isn't it likely that a comp pick would have been significantly better? I don't see us having much cap room next FA so I imagine we would actually be in line to receive one.

[UMFan83]

Holy horsefeathers. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to hold onto him and see if we can get more for him at the deadline? I know NFL deadlines aren’t as big as other sports but you certainly aren’t going to get anything worse than a 6th by holding onto him

[WrigleyField 22]

Holy horsefeathers. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to hold onto him and see if we can get more for him at the deadline? I know NFL deadlines aren’t as big as other sports but you certainly aren’t going to get anything worse than a 6th by holding onto him

I'm okay going all meatbally on this and say that a mid-season trade for a draft pick is a locker room killer. If you held onto him it was to keep him all season and maybe get the 2021 draft comp.

 

Wish it would have been for more, but that probably wasn't realistic.

[PackLandVA]

It’s not a RB’s league anymore. They just don’t have the value right now that they used to.

[UMFan83]

Holy horsefeathers. Wouldn’t it have made more sense to hold onto him and see if we can get more for him at the deadline? I know NFL deadlines aren’t as big as other sports but you certainly aren’t going to get anything worse than a 6th by holding onto him

I'm okay going all meatbally on this and say that a mid-season trade for a draft pick is a locker room killer. If you held onto him it was to keep him all season and maybe get the 2021 draft comp.

 

Wish it would have been for more, but that probably wasn't realistic.

 

Well then in my opinion you keep him then. But what do I know?

[Chocolate Milk]

I’m somewhat surprised by what they got back but not really. He was one of the worst starting running backs in the league last year. He had the lowest yards per carry of any running back with more than 175 carries. He had the 6th most carries in the league and couldn’t crack 1,000 yards. He’s gotten worse every year. I know we have fond memories about his rookie season but the reality is he’s just a guy.

 

I’m also extremely skeptical they turned down a 3rd for him last year.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I’m somewhat surprised by what they got back but not really. He was one of the worst starting running backs in the league last year. He had the lowest yards per carry of any running back with more than 175 carries. He had the 6th most carries in the league and couldn’t crack 1,000 yards. He’s gotten worse every year. I know we have fond memories about his rookie season but the reality is he’s just a guy.

 

I’m also extremely skeptical they turned down a 3rd for him last year.

 

 

Yea, i looooove Howard, but....

[Derwood]

Let him turn into a pumpkin in Philly

[jersey cubs fan]

It’s not a RB’s league anymore. They just don’t have the value right now that they used to.

Impactful ones do. But they don’t pay for competence

[We Got The Whole 9]

Let him turn into a pumpkin in Philly

I'd rather he play well enough to get us a 5th

[David]

Let him turn into a pumpkin in Philly

He's such a pumpkin already that they made him a jack o lantern at Halloween

[Burtonbell]

Here is an article by Hoge that pretty much sums up my feeling. If the Bears draft a RB in the 4th or 5th this year they should be able to replace Howard's (declining) production.

 

https://wgnradio.com/2019/03/28/hoge-even-at-a-lower-price-trading-jordan-howard-made-sense/

[WrigleyField 22]

Every Bears player will have a triple digit number this year, in celebration of their 100th anniversary. This does not sound like a one game thing, all 16 games.

 

This is gonna be weird.

 

Edit-nevermind I'm an idiot, happy April Fools (in my defense I had seen something about a major uniform announcement coming up like a week ago, so these losers set up their April Folls joke by like a week.)

[UMFan83]

Every Bears player will have a triple digit number this year, in celebration of their 100th anniversary. This does not sound like a one game thing, all 16 games.

 

This is gonna be weird.

 

Edit-nevermind I'm an idiot, happy April Fools (in my defense I had seen something about a major uniform announcement coming up like a week ago, so these losers set up their April Folls joke by like a week.)

 

Good on you for keeping this up instead of just deleting the post in shame

[WrigleyField 22]

Every Bears player will have a triple digit number this year, in celebration of their 100th anniversary. This does not sound like a one game thing, all 16 games.

 

This is gonna be weird.

 

Edit-nevermind I'm an idiot, happy April Fools (in my defense I had seen something about a major uniform announcement coming up like a week ago, so these losers set up their April Folls joke by like a week.)

 

Good on you for keeping this up instead of just deleting the post in shame

I have little shame.

[jersey cubs fan]

Every Bears player will have a triple digit number this year, in celebration of their 100th anniversary. This does not sound like a one game thing, all 16 games.

 

This is gonna be weird.

 

Edit-nevermind I'm an idiot, happy April Fools (in my defense I had seen something about a major uniform announcement coming up like a week ago, so these losers set up their April Folls joke by like a week.)

 

Good on you for keeping this up instead of just deleting the post in shame

I have little shame.