Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-22-18

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 3-1 Box Score

 

Tennessee lost 7-5 Box Score

 

Myrtle Beach won 7-2 Box Score

 

South Bend lost 5-4 (10 innings) Box Score

 

Eugene in progress Box Score

 

AZL Cubs 1 in progress Box Score

 

AZL Cubs 2 in progress Box Score

 

DSL Cubs 1 and DSL Cubs 2 have the day off

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brailyn Márquez Day up in the PNW

[craig]

Brennan Davis back in the lineup, DH, leads off with K. Cole doubles in the first.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

how much longer do we have to keep up the charade with Roederer in the AZL

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Roederer now 2-2, with the double, a walk, and a stolen base.

[CubsWin]

how much longer do we have to keep up the charade with Roederer in the AZL

I say let him rack up some more numbers for another week and then send him to Eugene.

 

3 PAs, 3 times on base to start the night. Walk, Double, Single. On the single, he steals 2nd (5th in 12 games) and ties the game on a Henderson Perez double.

 

Roederer and Mike Montgomery both went to the same high school about a mile from where I live. I believe Paul Richan went there, too. #HotBed

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Does anyone have some free time to scroll through all his past tweets? It's not too many...

 

If he's legit, we really don't want any Haderesque nasty surprises down the road. Just sayin'.

[CubsWin]

Some questions on Marquez:

 

- Is this considered his breakout season as a prospect?

- If so, what new skills does he have compared to last year?

- What is his perceived ceiling right now?

 

I go:

 

No

Uptick in velocity?

BOR/reliever, more or less where all the pitchers in the system are right now except maybe Alzolay

I go:

 

So far, but it's early.

 

Huge uptick in velocity. 89-92, T93 per AZ Phil to sitting 94-96, T97-99. He's been able to maintain decent control of that FB even with the added velocity.

 

Perceived ceiling? As in what I perceive it to be what he's capable of if he fulfills his potential to the fullest? He's so young and there's not a lot of data to go on, but with that stuff (solid curveball along with mid-90s heater) and his performance to date in the NWL, a TOR starter is his absolute ceiling, I guess. We will know so much more in two years. For me, AA is the proving ground, and we saw what happened to Albertos this year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Does anyone have some free time to scroll through all his past tweets? It's not too many...

 

If he's legit, we really don't want any Haderesque nasty surprises down the road. Just sayin'.

 

 

Oh god it's worse than I could have possibly imagined...

 

[Regular Show]

 

Does anyone have some free time to scroll through all his past tweets? It's not too many...

 

If he's legit, we really don't want any Haderesque nasty surprises down the road. Just sayin'.

 

 

Oh god it's worse than I could have possibly imagined...

 

 

Well, it could be worse. It could have been a MAGA hat (worst possible hat scenario IMO).

 

Why the hell is he wearing a White Sox cap? Like seriously, he's from California and he's not Ice Cube.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Roederer and Mike Montgomery both went to the same high school about a mile from where I live. I believe Paul Richan went there, too. #HotBed

 

Yeah, Richan went to Hart too. Same for Trevor Bauer (they're not all winners).

[Cubswin11]

Some questions on Marquez:

 

- Is this considered his breakout season as a prospect?

- If so, what new skills does he have compared to last year?

- What is his perceived ceiling right now?

 

I go:

 

No

Uptick in velocity?

BOR/reliever, more or less where all the pitchers in the system are right now except maybe Alzolay

I think yes, at least so far. You hope this is only the beginning of breakout seasons coming up. He’s throwing like 6-10 MPH faster this year, that’s pretty huge and he seems to have good to great command at huge velocities. His ceiling has to be a TOR starter, 19 YO lefty throwing mid-upper 90s with what sounds like average-good breaking/offspeed walk rates being perfectly acceptable and K’ing a lot.

[Vinestal]

 

Does anyone have some free time to scroll through all his past tweets? It's not too many...

 

If he's legit, we really don't want any Haderesque nasty surprises down the road. Just sayin'.

 

 

Oh god it's worse than I could have possibly imagined...

 

 

Well, it could be worse. It could have been a MAGA hat (worst possible hat scenario IMO).

 

Why the hell is he wearing a White Sox cap? Like seriously, he's from California and he's not Ice Cube.

A MAGA hat is best case scenario. You don't want America to be great? Strange times... Why do you guys have to shove your political opinions into every post you make?

[cl smooth]

A MAGA hat is best case scenario. You don't want America to be great? Strange times... Why do you guys have to shove your political opinions into every post you make?

 

the horsefeathers is this garbage?

[CubsWin]

A MAGA hat is best case scenario. You don't want America to be great? Strange times... Why do you guys have to shove your political opinions into every post you make?

Dude, you don't want to double down on a pair of 6s, much less 3 of them...

[Bobson Dugnutt]

 

 

Oh god it's worse than I could have possibly imagined...

 

 

Well, it could be worse. It could have been a MAGA hat (worst possible hat scenario IMO).

 

Why the hell is he wearing a White Sox cap? Like seriously, he's from California and he's not Ice Cube.

A MAGA hat is best case scenario. You don't want America to be great? Strange times... Why do you guys have to shove your political opinions into every post you make?

 

[craig]

Some questions on Marquez:

- Is this considered his breakout season as a prospect?

- If so, what new skills does he have compared to last year?

- What is his perceived ceiling right now?

..No

Uptick in velocity?

BOR/reliever, more or less where all the pitchers in the system are right now except maybe Alzolay

 

I'd say no, although I don't care and view the "breakout" question and "new skills" as irrelevant. Uncommon for any player to turn up with "NEW" skills. Usually some kind of continuum. Reduce your errors; get somewhat stronger with somewhat more power; mature some and get somewhat faster; get your release point somewhat more consistent and add some velocity consistency with breaking ball. Sometimes there is a "new skill", I guess; a pitcher tinkers and suddenly finds a new grip, so suddenly adds a splitter or a cutter or a sharper slider, and it changes everything abruptly. But for most guys, it's a developmental continuum, and that appears to be Marquez too.

 

Or, perhaps as Cubswin notes, the fastball velocity is a "new skill" and a breakout. Lefties who throw 89-93, those are abundant, and only occasionally good. But lefties who consistently throw mid-90's and touch upper 90's, those are uncommon. Is that a "new skill"? One could say yes; or one could argue that's natural development for a tall maturing teenager.

 

Still, the reported velocity jump is pretty dramatic. Every year the Cubs have dozens of young pitchers; every year baseball signs batches of internationals, every year the draft selects hundreds of tall HS pitchers. For every teenager we add, we hope a bunch more velocity will come with time and development. But very few guys actually do end up adding 5mph or end up throwing mid-to-upper 90's.

 

He's in short-season with only 26 innings, 3 HR (not good), and a fair number of hits allowed. Good number on a healthy developmental trajectory. But want to see him continue to develop and excel in full-season, over more extended 70+ innings. If he does, we'll maybe say "Nothing breakout, I've been talking about him for several years, this is just an extension of what I've seen coming all along."

 

"Perceived CEILING" is pretty high, higher than BOR. Mid-upper 90's, decent control. There are years to go to sharpen his breaking ball, develop his change, develop his cutter, and improve his location and command. The perceived "ceiling" is that he could hypothetically do all of those things, and perhaps end up being faster version of prime Quintana. Why not, that's "ceiling". Is it likely, of course not; but at age 19, which of us can know the future? The ceiling is excellent, *IF* the developmental continuum keeps rolling over the next handful of years. One can always look smart by saying "BOR", because very few 19-year-olds ever develop beyond that. But some do, and it can change the trajectory of a franchise. Odds are slim with Brailyn, because having the command and movement and offspeed stuff is just rare. But it's possible, and I'm going to hope for a while until/unless there is evidence to the contrary.

[Hrubes20]

It's just a semantics game with the "breakout" talk. Is a player's breakout season the one where they go from relative obscurity to being known by most people who follow prospects? Is it the season they put themselves on the map as a top 100 prospect for some publication? Is it something else? For me, it's tough to call 2018 a breakout season because he's only going to get what, 60 innings in at Eugene this year? He certainly won't be on any top 100 lists. But he definitely has caught the attention of the prospectphiles, so he won't be obscure anymore.

 

Huge uptick in velocity (while simultaneously still being able to throw strikes with it) is absolutely a newfound skill. It's essentially the addition of a whole new pitch to a pitcher's arsenal.

 

Perceived ceiling is huge, just like craig and Cubswin11 said. He's got the fastball, command, and control. He has the makings of a curve and a change. He has a frame that can hold up to a starter's workload. Easily the highest pitching ceiling in the system for me, and it's not particularly close.

[Hrubes20]

how much longer do we have to keep up the charade with Roederer in the AZL

 

We have essentially nothing to go on, as we all know this FO has gone heavy on college draftees since taking over.

 

Almora got 18 games (80 PA) in the AZL before going to the NWL, and he hit well but not outstanding (119 wRC+).

 

D.J. Wilson played all 22 games (89 PA) of his debut year in the AZL, although he didn't hit particularly well (100 wRC+)

 

Nelson Velazquez played all 32 games (126 PA) last year in the AZL, and while he did end up with solid prodution (127 wRC+), he was sitting at 97wRC+ and a K rate north of 30% after his first 20 games and 81 PAs.

 

That's 100% of the prep hitters taken in the top 5 picks since 2012. Obviously Roederer is lapping all of them offensively so far, but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets the Almora treatment and gets bumped to Eugene after a handful or so more games. Fernando Kelli is not wowing anyone in CF there, and I believe they only have 3 OFers at the moment.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Some questions on Marquez:

 

- Is this considered his breakout season as a prospect?

- If so, what new skills does he have compared to last year?

- What is his perceived ceiling right now?

 

I go:

 

No

Uptick in velocity?

BOR/reliever, more or less where all the pitchers in the system are right now except maybe Alzolay

 

Brailyn’s ceiling as a guy who hits 99, gets starter innings, has decent command and offspeed offerings that are projectable as a 19-year old is a TOR starter. The likelihood of reaching that is obviously rather slim and we’ll need more years of health and improvement in his other pitches before we can legitimately discuss that ceiling for a pitcher currently at short season. He definitely has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the system.