2019 Draft Thread

[Bertz]

Keith Law has us taking Michael Busch in his first mock. Don't usually love bat-only guys, but with Rizzo's contract nearing its end, Schwarber not really progressing, and the DH seemingly being a lock for the next CBA, I think I'm softening on that stance.

[Hrubes20]

Shewmake and Hoese both sound a lot like Cubs picks, I'm not as sure that Wilson does.

 

Shewmake went 31 and Hoese 32 in this mock.

 

Has anyone gotten any looks at this kid? Otherworldy stats, but Kiley said he has a really long swing and feasts against weak competition.

[Regular Show]

From Keith Law's first 2019 MLB mock draft:

 

27. Chicago Cubs: Michael Busch, 1B, UNC

 

Busch could go anywhere from the mid-teens on as one of the more polished college hitters in the draft, but a guy without any place to play other than first base.

 

This is a solid choice and a really good bat. I don't believe he'll fall this far in the first round. Some scouts think he has a small chance to play LF (probably will be below-average defensively there). Keith Law was wrong about Schwarber and his chances of playing LF so I wouldn't take his word as definitive. He's ranked 28th on MLB.com's list and 19th on Fangraphs' draft board.

 

From MLB.com's draft list:

 

While Busch was Minnesota's top high school position prospect in 2016, his bat stood out more than his athleticism and he wasn't a highly regarded recruit or Draft target. That profile remains true today but now he's one of the best pure hitters in college baseball and a likely first-round pick. He has improved in each of his three seasons at North Carolina and also has starred in the Cape Cod League.

 

Busch makes it look easy at the plate. He has a smooth left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed and a patient, balanced approach that allows him to hammer balls to all fields. He should hit for average and power while drawing plenty of walks, and few college players in this Draft have a higher offensive ceiling or floor.

 

Busch's Draft status is compromised somewhat by uncertainty about his future home. He's small for a first baseman and has below-average to fringy speed and arm strength. He's more athletic than his 6-foot, 207-pound frame might indicate -- he starred in football and hockey as well as baseball in high school -- and possibly could handle second base (where he played on the Cape) or left field (where he has seen action this spring).

[Regular Show]

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Pretty nasty curveball from LHP Mason Feole. That delivery makes me think he'll probably end up being a reliever, but potentially a very good one.

[Regular Show]

Michael Busch's swing (slo-mo):

[bbvideo=853,480]https://www.instagram.com/p/BwAHFyAgyzp/[/bbvideo]

 

Braden Shewmake's swing (slo-mo):

[bbvideo=853,480]https://www.instagram.com/p/Bwrf7cOALp9/[/bbvideo]

This is from Fangraphs' official Instagram account. Lots of good video of prospects on there.

 

So definitely different swings for these two players, but they're both productive hitters. Shewmake looks a little bit goofy in his swing, but the dude hits for a good average and rarely strikes out. Busch has the superior swing (and way more power) and you can see the difference.

[Regular Show]

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27. Chicago Cubs | Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy

Perhaps the owner of the most tantalizing stuff in all of the draft, Espino will show a fastball in the high-90s, a plus slider and the makings of two other quality off-speed pitches at his best. Concerns about his mechanical profile and his command (not control) projection push him down the board a bit, but there’s no questioning how good the stuff is at peak.

 

Maybe I should stop posting their mock drafts because I seriously doubt the Cubs (and their scouts) are targeting a HS pitcher with their 1st round pick. It doesn't fit their MO. A bunch of good hitters are still available: Shewmake, Wilson and Hoese (who I don't really like).

 

Espino has incredible stuff, but the track record of young HS pitchers throwing this hard this early in their careers is bad and very troubling. He doesn't have the cleanest pitching mechanics either with a long arm-action before delivering the pitch.

[Regular Show]

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27. Cubs: Braden Shewmake, SS, Texas A&M

 

Theo Epstein and company almost always goes college in the first round, and have grabbed hitters in four of the last five Drafts. With Nico Hoerner tearing it up in the Minors, having them go back up the middle makes some sense.

 

Good choice again. It's the same as Jim Callis in the first one.

[Hrubes20]

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27. Chicago Cubs | Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy

Perhaps the owner of the most tantalizing stuff in all of the draft, Espino will show a fastball in the high-90s, a plus slider and the makings of two other quality off-speed pitches at his best. Concerns about his mechanical profile and his command (not control) projection push him down the board a bit, but there’s no questioning how good the stuff is at peak.

 

Maybe I should stop posting their mock drafts because I seriously doubt the Cubs (and their scouts) are targeting a HS pitcher with their 1st round pick. It doesn't fit their MO. A bunch of good hitters are still available: Shewmake, Wilson and Hoese (who I don't really like).

 

Yeah, I see an extremely small chance of that happening.

 

I can't make up my mind on Hoese. I've seen some video and I don't love the swing, but it's not horrendous. Wilson is my least favorite out of those 3. He doesn't make enough contact.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

27

Kameron Misner Missouri OF

 

Notes:

Misner is a bit of a conundrum after starting the season strong but struggling mightily in conference play (.218/.358/.322 with a 32 percent strikeout rate). He’s been too passive and the strikeouts are concerning, particularly for a player who missed a chunk of last spring and the summer with a foot injury. But his tools stack up with Bishop’s, even if his performance does not. The Cubs should be as equipped as any organization to figure Misner out.

[Regular Show]

New BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

27

Kameron Misner Missouri OF

 

Notes:

Misner is a bit of a conundrum after starting the season strong but struggling mightily in conference play (.218/.358/.322 with a 32 percent strikeout rate). He’s been too passive and the strikeouts are concerning, particularly for a player who missed a chunk of last spring and the summer with a foot injury. But his tools stack up with Bishop’s, even if his performance does not. The Cubs should be as equipped as any organization to figure Misner out.

 

I'd be okay with this selection. The tools are all elite (except the hit tool obviously) and he has a chance to stick in CF. I'd hope the Cubs' coaches and instructors could help improve his swing and unlock his full potential. If he was hitting in conference play there is NO way we have a chance at him.

[Tryptamine]

New BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

27

Kameron Misner Missouri OF

 

Notes:

Misner is a bit of a conundrum after starting the season strong but struggling mightily in conference play (.218/.358/.322 with a 32 percent strikeout rate). He’s been too passive and the strikeouts are concerning, particularly for a player who missed a chunk of last spring and the summer with a foot injury. But his tools stack up with Bishop’s, even if his performance does not. The Cubs should be as equipped as any organization to figure Misner out.

 

I'd be okay with this selection. The tools are all elite (except the hit tool obviously) and he has a chance to stick in CF. I'd hope the Cubs' coaches and instructors could help improve his swing and unlock his full potential. If he was hitting in conference play there is NO way we have a chance at him.

I'm on the other end of the spectrum. For me hit tool is the single most important one and needed to play up the others. Unrelated, but damn Carter's stock is in free fall after going 8th last year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

New BA mock: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/

 

 

I'd be okay with this selection. The tools are all elite (except the hit tool obviously) and he has a chance to stick in CF. I'd hope the Cubs' coaches and instructors could help improve his swing and unlock his full potential. If he was hitting in conference play there is NO way we have a chance at him.

I'm on the other end of the spectrum. For me hit tool is the single most important one and needed to play up the others. Unrelated, but damn Carter's stock is in free fall after going 8th last year.

 

Yeah, a 32% strikeout rate in the SEC is scary. What type of contact is he going to make in pro baseball?

[Edith Cox]

Misner would be a steal at 27 with his power, speed and defense. I feel his bad SEC numbers are due to him being on a island with no help in the Missouri order and having to expand his zone to have any shot to help his team who doesn't have much surrounding him, and being a bit behind after missing so much SEC play in 2018.

 

For us to have any shot to get impact we have to roll the dice on distressed assets like we did last year with guys who slipped due to injury or poor play. And people would be falling all over themselves if they had a shot at Misner a few months ago who opened at 11 on MLB's list before falling to 19th. I doubt he will still be there at 27 as his tools and make up stand out too much, but if he's there I would be way too hard to pass on him.

[Edith Cox]

Yeah, I see alot of holes with the Cubs picking Misner. He’s nothing like the college hitters they have taken up top with the injuries and inconsistency plus no CCL

 

He didn't play in the Cape Cod League but he went to the NECBL in 17 and posted a line of .378/.479/.652/1.131 which was good enough to lead the league in hitting, his 8 HR were tied for 8th so he's had success with wood bats. Here is the write up PG had on him being their top prospect of the league.

 

1. Kameron Misner, of, Newport (Missouri/SO in 2018)

Coming out of Poplar Bluff High School in 2016 Misner was ranked No. 270 by Perfect Game and ultimately heard his name called by the Kansas City Royals in the 33rd round following his senior year. The Tigers coaching staff was glad he turned down the opportunity to play professional baseball out of high school as he hit .282-7-34 with 12 doubles as a freshman before heading to Newport for the summer. With the Gulls Misner put his vast array of tools and overall physicality on display, helping to tab him as the top prospect on this list while also earning the league’s Rookie of the Year award. Hitting out of the leadoff position for most of the summer, the lefthanded swinging, 6-foot-4, 220-pound Misner put together a season to remember and one you don’t typically see from a player just off his first collegiate season. Not only did Misner lead the entire league in hitting with a .378 average over 135 regular season at-bats, but he saw an improvement in his overall approach at the plate as he walked seven more times than he struck out in the NECBL compared to his 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio this past spring in Columbia. His overall swing mechanics are advanced as described by opposing coaches with the type of bat speed that matches his physicality and power at the plate which plays to all fields. He’s a threat on the bases and has the type of speed to beat out a ground ball in the infield, along with an above average arm in the outfield, allowing him to play any of the three positions. It was a banner year for Misner in Newport and Missouri fans are hoping he can replicate the success again this upcoming season.

[Cubswin11]

Law has us taking the 1B, Busch, from UNC in his mock, fwiw. The bat seems solid but unless they think he can play OF I’d rather take someone else.

[Hrubes20]

Yeah, I see alot of holes with the Cubs picking Misner. He’s nothing like the college hitters they have taken up top with the injuries and inconsistency plus no CCL. There’s shades of Brett Jackson in the profile with a little Bobby Brownlie as a pre injured big name faller coming off a down year.

 

That's exactly the vibe I got from Misner as well. His contact has absolutely cratered in SEC play.

[Regular Show]

Misner would be a steal at 27 with his power, speed and defense. I feel his bad SEC numbers are due to him being on a island with no help in the Missouri order and having to expand his zone to have any shot to help his team who doesn't have much surrounding him, and being a bit behind after missing so much SEC play in 2018.

 

For us to have any shot to get impact we have to roll the dice on distressed assets like we did last year with guys who slipped due to injury or poor play. And people would be falling all over themselves if they had a shot at Misner a few months ago who opened at 11 on MLB's list before falling to 19th. I doubt he will still be there at 27 as his tools and make up stand out too much, but if he's there I would be way too hard to pass on him.

 

Welcome to the Board!

 

I'm assuming you've seen a lot of Kameron Misner and wanted to chip in here. If you watch a lot of Mizzou games please contribute on what you see in games. What do you think of LHP TJ Sikkema?

 

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So in regards to Misner, at the beginning of the season I heard and read really good things about him and figured the Cubs had no shot at him. Great tools in a great frame with really good instincts. Makeup was also considered outstanding. It seems like the main problem is the swing-and-miss of late and downturn in performance.

 

Just to be clear, I also consider the Hit tool the most important one for a position player. The Hit tool is also the hardest one to project accurately for most prospects. From watching video and BP, his swing seems fine mechanically and the raw power is obvious. He starts with a slightly open stance before taking a small stride forward and closing it up. I don't see a hitch or any holes in his swing, but I'd have to watch many games to determine if there was a hole(s) in the swing. Pretty well-balanced with good hands. Approach seems fine at the plate.

 

Looking at his stats and the overall line is pretty good, but he was performing at higher level during his sophomore season. The strikeout rate is too high at almost 22%, but he draws a lot of walks as well (52 BBs against 52 SOs). Amazing basestealer and that should translate to the Pros. The strikeouts are alarming and you wonder about how he'll do against upper level pitching. I don't know if he's susceptible to good breaking pitches/changeups, or has problems identifying spin...

 

This is where it's really important to have high level scouts and area crosscheckers come in and try to figure out what is happening. Is he pressing? Is he having problems mechanically with his swing breaking down? Is he injured? Is this a potential long-term problem with upper level pitchers exposing him a la Brett Jackson?

 

I don't know the answer, but I think it's important to take a chance on great athletes with rare tools occasionally. Sometimes you hit on them or they make adjustments and become refined and move quickly. I remember reading an article about how scouts missed on Giancarlo Stanton and how many scouts thought he had no chance to make it to the Pros (too big/too long a swing and a serious problem with SOs). I have other college hitters (and some HS hitters) rated higher now and I'm sure the Cubs do as well, but we don't know how it will unfold on draft day. If Misner is available and the Cubs take a chance on him I wouldn't mind this selection if other advanced hitters are gone.

 

Misner might not hit for a great average/high-OBP, but he should hit for good power with solid defense in CF (there are questions about the defensive fit long-term). We need to remember the Cubs are employing a player with a .245/.286/.349 line right now with a career wRC+ of 92 -- it doesn't take much to be an upgrade in CF.

[Hrubes20]

I really want the high level scouts to be convinced that Greg Jones will hit, so he can be the pick. That speed would be really fun.

[UK]

Mechanically he's inclined to make contact, there's some uppercut but nothing extreme. It's a combo of being a guess hitter, no protection, and pressing.

 

I've been burned by 4 tool Of'ers who swing and miss (Kyle Gaedele) and obviously Jackson leaves a bad taste.

 

I'm not worried about his foot injury but being a 3 outcome hitter (even in the AA level of the SEC) is a serious concern.

 

I love Malone if he's there, Allan is a shoulder injury waiting to happen with that follow-through, I've seen Priester a couple of times this year and I'm impressed, arm isn't as lively as Foltynewicz, isn't as polished as Odorizzi at this stage but a combo of the two. Reminds me more of Kris Honel. Solid frame. Plus FB and curve, mechanically sound, marginal change.

 

I was always hesitant with TCU commits.

[CP_414]

The new Fangraphs mock has Logan Davidson to the Cubs.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

[UK]

The new Fangraphs mock has Logan Davidson to the Cubs.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

 

I think the Cubs would be more likely to draft Strumpf (sp?) from UCLA over Davidson.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Davidson has had a few bad Cape Cods/tough time with the wood bat. I don’t see him being the Cubs pick. I like Strumpf too, UK.

 

Here’s a name I haven’t heard in some time:

 

[Regular Show]

The new Fangraphs mock has Logan Davidson to the Cubs.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

 

Yeah, so when the Cubs are picking in their mock draft they still have Busch, Shewmake, Lugo and Nunez still available. I'd take all those guys over Davidson (who has had problems performing with a wood bat like Raisin said).

[Edith Cox]

Welcome to the Board!

 

I'm assuming you've seen a lot of Kameron Misner and wanted to chip in here. If you watch a lot of Mizzou games please contribute on what you see in games. What do you think of LHP TJ Sikkema?

 

I've been meaning to sign up for a while to talk about the upcoming draft and been lazy, but the idea of getting Misner at 27 did excite me enough to sign up. I honestly don't know what to think of Sikkema since he doesn't always throw as hard as you would expect him to with his build, but gets results with good spin and deception and was excellent up at the Cape. Hard to tell if that would translate to be a LHP starter at the back of a rotation or a good LHP out of pen, but I always want hitters over pitchers as a personal preference for that reason.

[Edith Cox]

The new Fangraphs mock has Logan Davidson to the Cubs.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

 

.202/.304/.266/.570 in 309 PA in the Cape Cod League with the his second year being worse then the first is scary,