2018 Actual MLB Draft Day(s) Thread

[jersey cubs fan]

https://twitter.com/carriemuskat/status/1009486146961924096?s=21

[Hrubes20]

But with the bolded, the big thing for everyone is whether or not you got the same vibe when you watched Ryan Kellogg, Kyle Twomey, or any of the other failed pitching prospects you fell in love with?

 

Well no, Kellogg and Twomey were really well known HS recruits that never got better but I thought they would in the pros. That's different. This is more the Cubs have drafted seemingly random college arms before with big holes in their profile somewhere or another and were given the benefit of the doubt on upside potential development ceiling. I don't see why Richan doesn't get the same when his flaws mostly seem aesthetic.

 

There's 2 things here that need to be discussed:

 

1. What are you talking about with the "seemingly random college arms" comment? The only one I can think of is Zastryzny, who was pretty much universally disliked at the time of the draft. Most didn't care too much, because Bryant was an awesome pick, but nobody loved Zastryzny in the 2nd. The guys you pointed out were Stinnett, Skulina, and Pierce Johnson. All 3 went almost exactly where the national scouting lists said they should. I think Johnson and Skulina actually went a little later than they were expected to. This is nowhere similar to the Richan case, who was taken hundreds of spots earlier than anybody thought he should be on the national level. You are trying to paint some scenario that doesn't/didn't exist.

 

2. Are you trying to say that you personally think a guy with "meh" stuff has as good of a chance of developing a plus pitch or two in pro ball, as a guy with plus stuff developing workable command and control? Because that's a topic worth debating on here.

[toonsterwu]

I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.

 

All that said, the 2nd point is an interesting discussion point. Essentially, to break it down to a superbly simplistic question - What's easier - teaching a guy a new pitch (or improving it dramatically) or teaching them command? There are stories of both things happening - Kyle Hendricks wasn't this good coming up the minors, for example. I'm going to take a partial cop out and say that, in terms of draft picks, it would depend on their age/experience. It's not impossible, but I think it's probably easier to teach a college guy with an average-ish arsenal command than teaching a new plus pitch/improving a pitch.

 

But yeah, it's a fascinating baseball development discussion to have.

[Regular Show]

I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.

 

Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus.

 

I hate the pick and think he'll barely register on our Top 30 prospect rankings, if he ever makes it on there. I hated the Zastryzny pick also. I didn't like the Stinnett selection at the time. I liked the Pierce Johnson selection, but he didn't amount to much...

 

Cubs need to do better and they've admitted as much.

[toonsterwu]

I have no clue what's going on in this thread. I didn't love Richan, particularly when it was announced, the thought was he was getting slot. System is, though, geared towards under-slot guys, and knowing he got underslot makes that pick okay.

 

Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus.

 

I hate the pick and think he'll barely register on our Top 30 prospect rankings, if he ever makes it on there. I hated the Zastryzny pick also. I didn't like the Stinnett selection at the time. I liked the Pierce Johnson selection, but he didn't amount to much...

 

Cubs need to do better and they've admitted as much.

 

Well, here's the thing - you likely aren't grabbing a guy as an underslot guy who isn't fairly low compared to where you are picking at the moment. There are some exceptions - for example, a senior sign who rose up his last year might go for a bit below slot because of a lack of leverage (I believe Stinnett was, off the top).

 

I hate that I'm sort of defending Richan here, as I don't really like the talent. But the pick isn't the talent ... the pick is also somewhat a byproduct of the system. If people have a problem with the pick, they should have as much a problem with the Davis/Roederer picks, if not moreso. Put it another way - I don't love the talent, I'm okay with the pick as an extension of what happened in the draft.

 

As for where he ranks, our system isn't that good that a college pitcher with a starter's arsenal and command isn't going to register in the top 30. I haven't really thought it out, but my feeling is that the difference between Richan and Cory Abbott last year isn't nearly that great, so I'm guessing I'd probably put Richan in that 18-26 range. But to each their own.

[craig]

...

Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus. .....

 

This seems like good logic, but pending Roederer's deal, it's fallacious.

*DAvis basically signed for slot. They didn't need Richan to underslot to help there.

*Unless Roederer gets significantly more than Davis did, he could have been covered by the the 5% overage.

*And if they did want to pay Roederer significantly more than Davis, they still have freed up several hundred K more with 8-10 senior signs.

 

Conclusion: Richan pick did NOT need to be sub-slotted in order to sign Davis and Roederer.

[craig]

Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?

[Regular Show]

...

Just cause he agreed to an underslot bonus doesn't make it "okay". The Cubs liked Davis and Roederer and knew they needed some savings from an underslot signing to be able to afford those two players. Richan was listed very low on national rankings lists and I bet the Cubs didn't have him that highly ranked either -- they just needed someone they liked to agree to an underslot bonus. .....

 

This seems like good logic, but pending Roederer's deal, it's fallacious.

*DAvis basically signed for slot. They didn't need Richan to underslot to help there.

*Unless Roederer gets significantly more than Davis did, he could have been covered by the the 5% overage.

*And if they did want to pay Roederer significantly more than Davis, they still have freed up several hundred K more with 8-10 senior signs.

 

Conclusion: Richan pick did NOT need to be sub-slotted in order to sign Davis and Roederer.

 

Well, we won't really know until Roederer signs. I mean I don't understand why the Cubs would take Richan there and get him to sign an underslot deal if they never planned to use those savings or if they had enough to sign the Davis/Roederer duo.

 

Maybe they intended to draft another prep player in a later round and use those savings on him? I don't really understand their strategy...

 

I thought Davis was getting an overslot deal, but it looks like he's only signing slightly above slot value. Still hate the pick, but whatever.

[davell]

Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?

 

 

"One of the players who showed off some of the loudest tools of the day was impressive center fielder Ezequiel Pagan (2018, Guayanilla, Puerto Rico) for TSD Black. Pagan has a lean, high-waisted frame with long limbs and projection remaining throughout. Despite the lankiness of the frame he has present strength and that allows him to pull the barrel of the bat through the zone with impressive bat speed. The facet of Pagan's offensive approach that immediately stood out was his confidence in his ability. He was very relaxed and comfortable at the plate showing even a little bit of swagger as well. The barrel stays in the hitting zone for a long time and he has very quick hands with an inside path to the baseball. Pagan showed an awareness of the strike zone and showed the ability to control the barrel of the bat and to hit the ball hard to all fields. He launched a triple deep down the opposite field line and showed off his good speed as well. He was timed at 4.12 seconds to first base from the left side and has run a 6.6 60-yard dash at Perfect Game showcases in the past. The speed was evident on the base paths where he also showed good base running instincts. Pagan made long strides in the outfield and garnered good reads off fly balls. Pagan has very loud tools and they showed during his two games played on Friday."

 

"Ezequiel Pagan is a 2018 OF/3B with a 6-1 163 lb. frame from Guayanilla, PR who attends Pro Baseball High School Academy. Long and slender athletic build, not strong yet but has lots of physical projection, young Denard Span build. 6.63 runner, moves very easily in the outfield and on the bases, will have plus range in centerfield, has good arm strength with a long and loose arm action, very good defensive tools overall that will keep improving with repetitions and fundamentals. Left handed hitter, simple lower half shift into contact, big barrel wrap creates some length but can create whip when he gets extended, still learning to adjust to inside velocity and get his hands it, has hitting tools that project. Good student, signed with Broward CC."

 

Craig, Wes just sent me this on him.

[Named After Maddux]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Saved about $50k on Herron.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335

2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955

2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

 

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.

[craig]

Do we have any scouting info on the Puero Rican kid in round 13?

 

 

"One of the players who showed off some of the loudest tools of the day was impressive center fielder Ezequiel Pagan ... has present strength ..... confidence in his ability. He was very relaxed and comfortable at the plate showing even a little bit of swagger as well...... He was timed at 4.12 seconds to first base from the left side and has run a 6.6 60-yard dash .... Pagan made long strides in the outfield and garnered good reads off fly balls. Pagan has very loud tools and they showed during his two games played on Friday."

 

"... not strong yet but has lots of physical projection.... Good student...."

 

Craig, Wes just sent me this on him.

 

Thanks for report. Sounds like a writeup that might go for a $1M international signee, or for a 2nd or 3rd rounder. Seems VERY favorable for a 13th rounder, can see why Cubs are excited. Wonder if he's just a kid who loves baseball and wants to get going, so $125K bonus to go chase the dream is all good? Or if some of the underslot savings are going his way?

 

He's still only 17, so lots of time to get stronger and mature.

 

Fun and exciting pick, I'd say!

[craig]

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335

2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955

2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

 

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.

 

Not sure I'm tracking, and apologies for asking because I'm sure this has been discussed before. But, I'll ask anyway! :)

 

Q1: What's the difference between the bottom two lines, and why is the bottom one smaller?

*Are you only including the 5% for guys actually signed in 2nd-last, but last one assumes the full 10-rounds overage will become available because they'll sign? But if the latter, then the remaining overslot would get bigger, not less....

 

Note: I look at this a more simplistic way based off of $7.5M pool, because I assume they'll all sign.

1. $376 overage will become available.

2. $314 under slot for those signed thus far

Sum = $690

 

So, $690 overslot available to to finish off rounds 1-10 and apply to any 3rd-day overslots.

 

That seems like more than plenty to handle Roederer and Franklin, unless they liked those guys a whole lot more than I realize.

[craig]

...Saved about $50k on Herron.

 

Not sure if they've got some formula set up. But it looks to me like other than Hoerner (suppposedly slot), Richan (significant underslot) and Artis (overslot), that the other 4 college picks have all been coming in about 10% underslot, more or less. Wonder if that will be about the same with Roberts and WEber too, or not? Slots are $400's and $300's, so maybe Roberts $40K under and Weber $30K under?

Herron: 520 570 -50

Mort 140 159 -19

Casey 130 145 -15

Reynolds 125 137 -12

 

I admit I was kinda surprised that 8-10 were all coming in with such modest $10-20K sub-slots, that's different from a lot of earlier Cub drafts.

[Named After Maddux]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Whoa! That's pretty surprising. Figured he'd get closer to slot.

[Hrubes20]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Whoa! That's pretty surprising. Figured he'd get closer to slot.

 

Same. Unless Roederer is getting more than anybody could expect, they just may be able to make a solid offer to Mitchell Parker.

 

Edit: Forgot about Franklin. He's also a possibility to require more overslot than we think.

[craig]

Wow, crazy, that's like 10th-round slot, less than Mort got and no more than senior-sign 22-going-on-23 Casey.

 

Really unexpected that low. By my count, that now puts the Cubs with $983K available for overslot signings. If Roederer and Franlin absorb all of that, that will be very surprising as well.

 

I wonder if the Cubs like the Louisville wildman more than we think, or something? And or the LSU wildman as well? Maybe Pagan?

 

IN past 5 years, I think Clifton's the only 3rd-day who's overslotted by >$100k, and Kevonte Mitchell the only other who's gotten as much as $200K total.

 

Hard to understand the strategy until we know where the overslot cash gets applied.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $5,752,700

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,040,335

2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955

2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,439,000

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only): $313,700 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $601,335 Under Budget

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds)Including 5% Overage: $592,155 Under Budget

 

So they have $592,155 more than their pool for Roederer, Roberts, Weber, Franklin and anyone outside the first 10 rounds.

 

Not sure I'm tracking, and apologies for asking because I'm sure this has been discussed before. But, I'll ask anyway! :)

 

Q1: What's the difference between the bottom two lines, and why is the bottom one smaller?

*Are you only including the 5% for guys actually signed in 2nd-last, but last one assumes the full 10-rounds overage will become available because they'll sign? But if the latter, then the remaining overslot would get bigger, not less....

 

Note: I look at this a more simplistic way based off of $7.5M pool, because I assume they'll all sign.

1. $376 overage will become available.

2. $314 under slot for those signed thus far

Sum = $690

 

So, $690 overslot available to to finish off rounds 1-10 and apply to any 3rd-day overslots.

 

That seems like more than plenty to handle Roederer and Franklin, unless they liked those guys a whole lot more than I realize.

 

The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.

 

ETA: I think I made a miscalculation yesterday on this. The next post, updated with Roberts' info included, is accurate.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I deleted some of my lines because I think it's unnecessary and might create confusion. I kept the last line TT asked for because it makes the most sense to include.

 

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only): $6,178,800

2018 Bonus Pool (signed picks only) Including 5% Overage: $6,487,740

2018 Bonus Pool (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $7,892,955

2018 Bonus Pool Spending: $5,569,000

2018 Bonus Pool Remaining (all top 10 rounds) Including 5% Overage: $985,655 Under Budget

 

So the Cubs have $985,655 beyond just their pool slots to sign Roederer, Weber and Franklin (and anyone else over $125k beyond the 10th round).

[craig]

....The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.

 

Not sure I'm tracking, but upon completion of top-10's, that opens up the full $376K in overage, and should make more overage available.

 

So how can the last line, with the full $376 in overage included, show less discretionary $$ than the second last line, which does not assume the full overage yet?

 

My numbers have $607K underslot, counting Roberts + $376 overage = $983 sum discretionary.

 

I'm not sure the website where I got my slot numbers had them exactly right, plus I roundoff a bit, so I don't doubt I'm off by a couple of K.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

....The second to last line is based only on signed top 10 round picks. The last line is if we assume all remaining top 10 picks signed at their slot + 5%.

 

Not sure I'm tracking, but upon completion of top-10's, that opens up the full $376K in overage, and should make more overage available.

 

So how can the last line, with the full $376 in overage included, show less discretionary $$ than the second last line, which does not assume the full overage yet?

 

My numbers have $607K underslot, counting Roberts + $376 overage = $983 sum discretionary.

 

I'm not sure the website where I got my slot numbers had them exactly right, plus I roundoff a bit, so I don't doubt I'm off by a couple of K.

 

Craig, I made a mistake on the post before Roberts signed. Check the one after Roberts signed - I got $985k which matches yours with slight differences in rounding.

[craig]

Yup, thanks. That last bottom line is the one that counts. Mine is roundoff error, but I'm still within $3K.

 

$985K is a non-trivial amount of discretionary dollars to play with. They may have liked your guy Roederer a lot, and perhaps it took more to buy him off that the $1.1 for Davis, will be interesting to see.

 

HRubes mentioned Mitchell Parker. One of his potential schools already said that the Cubs had made him a "decent" offer. I've got to assume that means variably north of 3rd-day slot, so I think he's probably in play.

 

With most of that $985 already available (if Hoerner has already signed off, as opposed to simply having agreed to terms, but not having the contract in the mlb office), I woldn't think they'd need to hold up on completing some or most of their overslots. Last year Estrada had to wait till the end, because his $$ would't be free till Lange signed off.

 

But once Hoerner is official, then they'll have all but like $30K available for wrapping up Roederer and then etc.

[davell]

My guess is Roederer comes in at a mill. Franklin costs 400k or so. Leaves us about 600k to throw towards Thompson, Pagan, Parker, and anyone else we've got to give over 125k to.

[CubsWin]

My guess is Roederer comes in at a mill. Franklin costs 400k or so. Leaves us about 600k to throw towards Thompson, Pagan, Parker, and anyone else we've got to give over 125k to.

That presumes Weber gets slot.

[jersey cubs fan]

https://twitter.com/savermetrics/status/1010555275768619009?s=21