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2018 Cubs ZiPS Projections

CaliforniaRaisin

By CaliforniaRaisin,
in Chicago Cubs Talk

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Aaron_Kennelly South Bend Cubs

Aaron_Kennelly

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I'm fine with saying 2016 is arguably Lester's best. There's some stuff in his batted ball data that suggests his batted ball luck wasn't all luck. Fantastic numbers for things like xBA and xwOBA. Really low exit velocity, particularly on fly balls, which also had more loft under them than usual. A low % of pitches barreled. Granted, he's been great in these facets every year -- even last year. And we have very few years of data on this stuff, so it's impossible to measure against his early Boston years. But, 2016 stands out as a great year for him in those areas. Also, for the years we have spin rate numbers, his spin rates on all his pitches were the highest in 2016 -- mostly by significant margins. So his stuff might have been a little more nasty and harder to square up.

 

But, mainly I'm OK with saying it because he's basically been the same pitcher every year. 4-5 wins. 200-210 innings. Save for the mid-career hiccup when he lost the feel for his cutter for a couple years, he's mostly been the same guy for a long time. Velocity has been about the same. Movement on his stuff has been about the same. His repertoire and pitch mix have been about the same.

 

It would be difficult for me to say definitively which is his best season when he has like 5 or 6 of them within a win of each other. 2014 seems like the best bet. He had his best periphs in the most innings. And he outpaced his periphs in ERA, too.

 

But there are things in the periphs that might lie to us, too. Pitch framing. Just plain getting screwed with bad calls from umps behind the dish. Some variance in ball/strike order and swing/miss order leading to weird things. A few fluky home runs screwing things up. Within a win or so of difference, it's going to be awfully tough to strip away all luck and randomness, even if we can take away things like defense. So I think it's fine to look beyond the periphs for something else when it's that close.

 

Regardless, UMFan's point stands. Lester is a year removed from being his normal self. Last year was ugly, and his age and injuries certainly aren't harbingers for success. But his main problem last year was with what happened when batters made contact with the ball. High HR/FB. High BABIP. Extremely low LOB%. He had an ERA larger than his FIP, which was larger than his xFIP. And as I said earlier, his batted ball numbers from last year contradict the notion that he was hit hard.

 

Of 99 pitchers with at least 400 batted balls against them, Lester had the 18th lowest average exit velocity. Of pitchers that threw at least 2,500 pitches, his xWOBA was 22nd lowest. He also allowed the lowest Contact% of his career.

 

I think he's a decent bet to bounce back, despite his age and injuries.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Other than the Yankees (just assuming they project for something ridiculous, haven't seen their Zips) does Zips project our bullpen for the most WAR in MLB?
CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

Community Moderator
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Other than the Yankees (just assuming they project for something ridiculous, haven't seen their Zips) does Zips project our bullpen for the most WAR in MLB?

I don't think they have Zips built into the comparisons yet, but we rank 6th behind Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers, Astros & Indians

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

 

Link actually has the Cubs 5th, ahead of Cleveland.

Tim MVP

Tim

Site Manager
Posted
Posted
Other than the Yankees (just assuming they project for something ridiculous, haven't seen their Zips) does Zips project our bullpen for the most WAR in MLB?

I don't think they have Zips built into the comparisons yet, but we rank 6th behind Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers, Astros & Indians

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

 

Link actually has the Cubs 5th, ahead of Cleveland.

Weird. It must have updated

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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PECOTA has the Cubs at 89 right now...they have the Dodgers at 99 (Brewers and Cardinals at 83 and 84, respectively).

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Oher than LA, only the Cubs and Nats in the NL at 89 or better, while the AL has the Astros at 99, Indians at 97, and Yankees (?!) at 96. Seems pretty wonky.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Does PECOTA usually project teams to have 99+ wins? I feel like most of these projections rarely have teams pegged for more than 94-95 wins.
Proven Veteran First Round Pick

Proven Veteran

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
PECOTA has the Cubs at 89 right now...they have the Dodgers at 99 (Brewers and Cardinals at 83 and 84, respectively).

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Oher than LA, only the Cubs and Nats in the NL at 89 or better, while the AL has the Astros at 99, Indians at 97, and Yankees (?!) at 96. Seems pretty wonky.

 

People still read BP?

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
PECOTA has the Cubs at 89 right now...they have the Dodgers at 99 (Brewers and Cardinals at 83 and 84, respectively).

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Oher than LA, only the Cubs and Nats in the NL at 89 or better, while the AL has the Astros at 99, Indians at 97, and Yankees (?!) at 96. Seems pretty wonky.

 

They also have the Cubs defense being pretty bad, which seems...doubtful

 

giphy.gif

Clem Fandango All-Star

Clem Fandango

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They also have the Cubs defense being pretty bad, which seems...doubtful

 

giphy.gif

 

Well yeah, Schwarber is going to be so bad in the least important defensive position that he's going to bring down the above average defense we have at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF. That's just horsefeathering science.

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They also have the Cubs defense being pretty bad, which seems...doubtful

 

giphy.gif

 

Well yeah, Schwarber is going to be so bad in the least important defensive position that he's going to bring down the above average defense we have at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF. That's just horsefeathering science.

 

where is our above average defense in CF coming from? (obviously agree with the gist of the post)

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They also have the Cubs defense being pretty bad, which seems...doubtful

 

giphy.gif

 

Well yeah, Schwarber is going to be so bad in the least important defensive position that he's going to bring down the above average defense we have at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF. That's just horsefeathering science.

 

where is our above average defense in CF coming from? (obviously agree with the gist of the post)

Didn’t Happ actually grade out decently there last year (better than Almora, iirc)?

David GOAT

David

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

Well yeah, Schwarber is going to be so bad in the least important defensive position that he's going to bring down the above average defense we have at C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, CF, and RF. That's just horsefeathering science.

 

where is our above average defense in CF coming from? (obviously agree with the gist of the post)

Didn’t Happ actually grade out decently there last year (better than Almora, iirc)?

 

he did, but i'm not buying into him as a plus CF.

Cubswin11 All-Star

Cubswin11

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

where is our above average defense in CF coming from? (obviously agree with the gist of the post)

Didn’t Happ actually grade out decently there last year (better than Almora, iirc)?

 

he did, but i'm not buying into him as a plus CF.

Fair enough, I’m also not buying Almora being a negative defensive CF. I think between the 2 we will grade positively (even if just nominally).

Clem Fandango All-Star

Clem Fandango

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Didn’t Happ actually grade out decently there last year (better than Almora, iirc)?

 

he did, but i'm not buying into him as a plus CF.

Fair enough, I’m also not buying Almora being a negative defensive CF. I think between the 2 we will grade positively (even if just nominally).

 

That

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Darvish has to bump us to the best team in MLB by ZiPS, right?

 

Astro's are probably still a little higher, and Dodgers are probably still about equal to us.

 

Here's the ZiPS projection for Yu in Chicago

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

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