The Mock Off Season Thread

[Tim]

btw - how much easier would this offseason be if we had Verlander on staff already?

[jersey cubs fan]

btw - how much easier would this offseason be if we had Verlander on staff already?

I really wish that one had happened.

[toonsterwu]

The guys Rogers mentioned, Archer, Stroman, Fulmer, Manaea, and Nola.....Most seem like long shots to be dealt, but I figure 1 or 2 probably move. Manaea, maybe Archer, being my guesses.

 

Then, you've got the group of guys MLBTR mentioned in the Cubs off season outlook.....

 

Danny Salazar, Collin McHugh, Matt Andriese, Jake Odorizzi, and Kendall Graveman. Again, I'd not expect more than one or two to move, but this opens up the market a bit.

 

With offense on the upswing, I'm not concerned in the least about pitching being TOO valuable. There's plenty of teams out there that'll be looking for cheap hitting.

 

Yeah, I mentioned McHugh in another thread. He seems the most likely one to move - Peacock/Morton are cheaper and both coming off key runs, and Keuchel/Verlander/McCullers Jr. are plugged in.

 

Salazar worries me, but as a flier, sure. That said, doubt they deal him as a flier.

 

I've got zero interest in Odorizzi. Zero. Give me a cheap flier on someone else instead.

 

Andriese/Graveman are nice end of the rotation options, I guess, if the price is right.

 

As for the top guys on that list, not really sure the Rays move anyone right now. Rotation is fairly thin ... Archer/Snell and then they are looking at Andriese/Honeywell/Faria. Mixed feelings on Manaea - sort of feels like he's still carrying his draft hype. All that said, as much as Beane/Forst like to trade ... moving Manaea with this many years left? They'd want an arm and a leg. Same holds for Fulmer, and I'm concerned Fulmer is more a power innings eater than anything else. Someone needs to add ... a splitter? ... something to his repetoire. It's all power stuff - decent power stuff, but at some point, without some variance, he just won't be able to explot hitters. I just don't see Nola getting moved when they are close to starting their window.

 

Of that list, my guess, if anyone gets moved ... I'd go Fulmer (Avila fully acknowledges its a rebuild, and despite the years of control, if he can net an arm and a leg for Fulmer, I think he might) ... and maybe Manaea (perhaps a case of Beane/Forst selling high?).

[davell]

No interest in Salazar for Schwarber. No thanks to pre-injured arms in a deal for one of the young, cheap hitting!

 

Who says no first to:

 

Blue Jays get: Schwarber, Happ, La Stella, de la Cruz, and Alzolay

 

Cubs get: Stroman, Happ, and Osuna

 

?

 

Toronto, because they're still trying to make the playoffs.

[toonsterwu]

Toronto says no because if they wanted to move, they are better off moving the pieces separately. I know the majority of reactions will be I'm off on this, but a cost-controlled Osuna with 3 years of top closing experience is a prime asset in this environment, someone who can likely notch an impact prospect package on his own. Happ, at 1 year and 13 million left, can likely net something decent due to teams wanting to avoid the long term commitments of FA. Stroman should be able to net an elite package by himself. I like all our guys, I still have a fascination with de la Cruz if he could ever get healthy, I can see Alzolay perhaps jumping up next mid-season and pulling a Luis Castillo (if given the opportunity ... performance wise, they aren't that similar as pitchers). I get the arguments on Happ/Schwarber's years of control, but with recent history in mind, I really am not sold that the Blue Jays can't get more impact by moving them separately.

 

That leaves aside that Shapiro and Co. seem to be trying to retool and not rebuild.

 

That does allow for a pivot into what it might take to get JA Happ. It might be one of those "safe" routes to take - I could definitely see Toronto moving him, and Happ's one year might be appealing to the organization if the FA contracts go crazy. Furthermore, maybe instead of a flier as the 5th starter, they could slot Happ in there, if the trade price is right. Sorta tough to figure. Looking at past trades isn't a great guide, as there haven't been many comparable trades to what a Happ trade might cost, leaving aside the fact that all trades exist within a limited environment. I tend to think a couple 2nd tier prospects could probably get it done, but obviously, if that's what it took, the Blue Jays would have a decent market and likely get to pick and choose what they prefer. That said, if they somehow prefer our 2nd tier prospects, an off-season combo of say, Alex Cobb and JA Happ would be an excellent way to fill the rotation.

[Named After Maddux]

Since Cobb has a decent chance of being brought in and Chatwood, Miley, Chacin all available as BOR fliers, I’d be interested in seeing Happ used to bring in late inning pen arms. If possible, JA Happ would be excellent as well, but Osuna is interesting from Toronto.

Does Ian Happ for Roberto Osuna make sense? Blue Jays do need help at 2B and they keep their SP intact. Cubs get a RP with excellent peripherals and a low walk rate. Not sure if the value equals out, but seems to make sense.

 

And off topic, but thank goodness we go Quintana. Imagine if we had to fill three SP slots this offseason.

[raw]

Since Cobb has a decent chance of being brought in and Chatwood, Miley, Chacin all available as BOR fliers, I’d be interested in seeing Happ used to bring in late inning pen arms. If possible, JA Happ would be excellent as well, but Osuna is interesting from Toronto.

Does Ian Happ for Roberto Osuna make sense? Blue Jays do need help at 2B and they keep their SP intact. Cubs get a RP with excellent peripherals and a low walk rate. Not sure if the value equals out, but seems to make sense.

 

And off topic, but thank goodness we go Quintana. Imagine if we had to fill three SP slots this offseason.

 

Yeah, I've been wondering for a couple days now if the Cubs would be looking at another deal similar to last year's Soler/Davis deal. Happ is kinda in a similar situation as Soler in that he could potentially be lost in a numbers game. But unlike Soler, he doesn't have an injury history or as big of an issue with struggles at the ML level. But I think the Cubs could potentially be interested in a Happ for Robertson or Britton type swap for a proven closer, but with injury questions. But Happ being better and younger than Soler at this point now vs. Jorge last year at this time, while also being able to play more important positions (CF, 2B) means maybe the Cubs could get an Osuna or Colome for him.

[davell]

God, I'll be pissed, if Happ gets moved solely for a pen arm.

 

I think I'd be OK, with moving him for Colome AND Odorizzi. Something like that could work. But, even then I wouldn't be thrilled.

 

Happ went into last year as a top 30-60 prospect by basically everyone. His value has gone up from there. I'd say trading him is the equivalent of trading a prospect ranked 15-25 or so, at this point.

 

But, I'm not that concerned with finding a truly proven closer. Add Reed(or Morrow), Neshek, and McGee to what we've got and its a very solid pen.

[toonsterwu]

I don't want to start a thread for this, but I didn't see it being discussed anywhere.

 

Have people read Joel Sherman's mock trades? His focus is on the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins, but one of the trades involves the Cubs, while he muses about another trade that involves someone oft-discussed here and a former Cub.

 

Now, he fully admits that this is an exercise to basically facilitate discussion, but it's interesting to read some nuggets he tosses in there, along with his perspective on value.

 

http://nypost.com/2017/11/11/trades-the-yankees-mets-and-jeter-could-make-this-week/

 

1. Mets send Robert Gsellman and Luis Guillorme to the Indians for Jason Kipnis.

 

He notes that a NL Exec thought the Indians were open to moving Kipnis and might even eat some money.

 

Honestly, if he feels that's appropriate value for Kipnis in this market ... I'd love for the Cubs to find a way in. Let's forget the whole he's a lifelong Cubs fan thing ... when healthy ... he's good.

 

2. Yankees send Starlin Castro, Tyler Austin and Luis Cessa to the Giants for Joe Panik.

 

I don't really care about this mock. His rationale makes sense, but I have my doubts the Giants would do that. What caught my eye was at the very end of this section where he says

 

I also keep wondering if there is a bigger trade between the Yanks and Giants with Jacoby Ellsbury (as a salary counterbalance) and more significant power prospect — Clint Frazier perhaps — going to San Francisco for Jeff Samardzija, especially if the Yanks fail to land Shohei Otani and need to put sure innings into their rotation.

 

Yes, there is Ellsbury in there that somewhat controls things, but I didn't think I would see anyone else, besides me, suggest an elite prospect/top young talent in a Samardzija trade. And Frazier is pretty damn high up there.

 

3. Marlins get Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry from the Giants, and Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist from the Cubs; the Giants get Stanton; and the Cubs get Johnny Cueto.

 

So I get the construct of this deal. I toyed with a mock like this involving Samardzija instead. Getting rid of Zobrist would be nice, though, from a financial and roster spot perspective. I'll be honest - I'm not too enthused with Cueto and would rather build a deal around Samardzija. At his best, sure his top level is better than Samardzija's, but his velocity seems to be declining, and well, there's 4/89 left (5 million buyout for 2022). Sure, getting out of the remaining 2/28 for Zobrist helps, but ... I don't know, I've never been as high on Cueto as his performances probably indicate one should be. Tbh, I have a hard time seeing the Marlins agree to that deal unless that's the only deal they can get. I don't particularly love Arroyo or Corry, though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That is a horrific deal for the Cubs. Take on an extra 2 years and 60 million of post-prime FA contract and give up Happ to boot. I feel like they forgot to type in Heyward's name somewhere.

[Cubswin11]

I don't want to start a thread for this, but I didn't see it being discussed anywhere.

 

Have people read Joel Sherman's mock trades? His focus is on the Yankees, Mets, and Marlins, but one of the trades involves the Cubs, while he muses about another trade that involves someone oft-discussed here and a former Cub.

 

Now, he fully admits that this is an exercise to basically facilitate discussion, but it's interesting to read some nuggets he tosses in there, along with his perspective on value.

 

http://nypost.com/2017/11/11/trades-the-yankees-mets-and-jeter-could-make-this-week/

 

1. Mets send Robert Gsellman and Luis Guillorme to the Indians for Jason Kipnis.

 

He notes that a NL Exec thought the Indians were open to moving Kipnis and might even eat some money.

 

Honestly, if he feels that's appropriate value for Kipnis in this market ... I'd love for the Cubs to find a way in. Let's forget the whole he's a lifelong Cubs fan thing ... when healthy ... he's good.

 

2. Yankees send Starlin Castro, Tyler Austin and Luis Cessa to the Giants for Joe Panik.

 

I don't really care about this mock. His rationale makes sense, but I have my doubts the Giants would do that. What caught my eye was at the very end of this section where he says

 

I also keep wondering if there is a bigger trade between the Yanks and Giants with Jacoby Ellsbury (as a salary counterbalance) and more significant power prospect — Clint Frazier perhaps — going to San Francisco for Jeff Samardzija, especially if the Yanks fail to land Shohei Otani and need to put sure innings into their rotation.

 

Yes, there is Ellsbury in there that somewhat controls things, but I didn't think I would see anyone else, besides me, suggest an elite prospect/top young talent in a Samardzija trade. And Frazier is pretty damn high up there.

 

3. Marlins get Christian Arroyo, Seth Corry from the Giants, and Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist from the Cubs; the Giants get Stanton; and the Cubs get Johnny Cueto.

 

So I get the construct of this deal. I toyed with a mock like this involving Samardzija instead. Getting rid of Zobrist would be nice, though, from a financial and roster spot perspective. I'll be honest - I'm not too enthused with Cueto and would rather build a deal around Samardzija. At his best, sure his top level is better than Samardzija's, but his velocity seems to be declining, and well, there's 4/89 left (5 million buyout for 2022). Sure, getting out of the remaining 2/28 for Zobrist helps, but ... I don't know, I've never been as high on Cueto as his performances probably indicate one should be. Tbh, I have a hard time seeing the Marlins agree to that deal unless that's the only deal they can get. I don't particularly love Arroyo or Corry, though.

[davell]

Zobrist and Happ for Cueto? Holy horsefeathers, thats insane.

 

The Giants are only giving up Christian Arroyo and a total project arm for Stanton?

 

Sherman needs to go to the B2B School of 3 way deals.

Edited November 12, 2017 by davell

[toonsterwu]

Honestly, I keep thinking, if that's all Kipnis costs ... I would desperately want to get in on Kipnis. He'd be so good for us offensively (I guess I am assuming he gets back to form). Baez (or Russell) are more likely to net a big time impact arm, particularly one that is young and cost-controlled, than Happ/Schwarber/Almora.

 

A lineup like

 

L 2nd, Kipnis

R 3rd, Bryant

L 1st, Rizzo

R C, Contreras

L LF, Schwarber/Happ

R SS, Russell

L RF, Heyward

R CF, Almora

 

looks absolutely tantalizing, seems strong defensively, and the rotation would likely be boosted by whatever mega-trade Baez gets shopped in.

 

Dunno, maybe I just have a weird desire for adding Kipnis.

[toonsterwu]

Zobrist and Happ for Cueto? Holy horsefeathers, thats insane.

 

The Giants are only giving up Christian Arroyo and a total project arm for Stanton?

 

Sherman needs to go to the B2B School of 3 way deals.

 

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams.

 

Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough.

 

Cubs - Cueto's deal.

[Cubswin11]

toonsterwu, are you on drugs? These are ridiculous things you are saying

[davell]

Zobrist and Happ for Cueto? Holy horsefeathers, thats insane.

 

The Giants are only giving up Christian Arroyo and a total project arm for Stanton?

 

Sherman needs to go to the B2B School of 3 way deals.

 

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams.

 

Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough.

 

Cubs - Cueto's deal.

 

 

Cueto literally has zero value. They've got us sending Happ for the purpose of getting rid of Zobrist. Its an awful deal for us and the Giants are giving up next to nothing.

[toonsterwu]

toonsterwu, are you on drugs? These are ridiculous things you are saying

 

huh? What's ridiculous?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wow, I did not realize Kipnis was so terrible at the plate this year. Can't even really blame his injury trouble because he was worse in the first half when he was presumably healthy. Not that I think that's his indefinite future, but I had no idea given how good the Indians were overall.

[toonsterwu]

Zobrist and Happ for Cueto? Holy horsefeathers, thats insane.

 

The Giants are only giving up Christian Arroyo and a total project arm for Stanton?

 

Sherman needs to go to the B2B School of 3 way deals.

 

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams.

 

Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough.

 

Cubs - Cueto's deal.

 

Cueto literally has zero value. They've got us sending Happ for the purpose of getting rid of Zobrist. Its an awful deal for us and the Giants are giving up next to nothing.

 

I don't disagree with that. I was just remarking about it because you said they were giving up Arroyo and a project arm (which I assumed was a comment on Corry ... but I guess it could've been a comment on Cueto).

[davell]

 

In his mock, Giants would give up Cueto/Arroyo/Corry for Stanton, with the Cueto return going to finish the Stanton deal. The theory makes sense - Giants lack the top flight talent to likely entice the Marlins to make such a deal, even if they eat the entire deal. Just not sure that mock makes sense for the other two teams.

 

Marlins - Taking on Zobrist, while still having Prado ... that's a lot of money they'd need to shed to reach their goals. Also, not too big on Arroyo/Corry, but that's me and others like them enough.

 

Cubs - Cueto's deal.

 

Cueto literally has zero value. They've got us sending Happ for the purpose of getting rid of Zobrist. Its an awful deal for us and the Giants are giving up next to nothing.

 

I don't disagree with that. I was just remarking about it because you said they were giving up Arroyo and a project arm (which I assumed was a comment on Corry ... but I guess it could've been a comment on Cueto).

 

I was referring to Corry. Cueto's not a positive value, so I didn't bother to list him.

[toonsterwu]

Wow, I did not realize Kipnis was so terrible at the plate this year. Can't even really blame his injury trouble because he was worse in the first half when he was presumably healthy. Not that I think that's his indefinite future, but I had no idea given how good the Indians were overall.

 

Yeah, he was pretty bad, and with their growing payroll, chopping him off makes sense. It's a gamble I'd probably roll on if the trade cost was as low as Sherman seems to think. Maybe I'm just not as high on Gsellman and the other arm - I just don't see much to excite me about Gsellman, but I'm not digging too deeply on non-Cubs guys these days.

 

Granted, I can see the flip side. If Kipnis somehow is "broken", then we have two highly expensive utility options in Kipnis/Zobrist.

[toonsterwu]

Wow, I did not realize Kipnis was so terrible at the plate this year. Can't even really blame his injury trouble because he was worse in the first half when he was presumably healthy. Not that I think that's his indefinite future, but I had no idea given how good the Indians were overall.

 

Should be noted that I think Kipnis was struggling with a shoulder injury at the start of the year, before the hamstring acted up mid-summer. Read it in some Indians season review, and that would definitely explain a slow start. He showed some signs of life in May/June before the hamstring hit. Granted, nothing was close to his previous performance, so it's a concern.

[davell]

I didn't realize Kipnis fell off like that either. He's either got 2/28 or 3/44.5 on his deal. I'd much prefer to just sign Cozart, than to give up anything for him.

[toonsterwu]

I didn't realize Kipnis fell off like that either. He's either got 2/28 or 3/44.5 on his deal. I'd much prefer to just sign Cozart, than to give up anything for him.

 

Yeah, I should've said 2/30.5. If Kipnis had shoulder problems, that could explain his offensive woes early. That said, if his value is that low, I'd much rather take that chance than pay Cozart for his mid-late 30's at a rate likely to be higher than what Kipnis would get over those seasons. I also wouldn't rule out Cozart potentially getting a 5th year of some sort (team option/vesting option/performance based, whatever).

 

I will add if mlbtr's prediction of 3/42 is correct, then okay. I've got a hard time seeing a market with few impact bats and almost no meaningful MI talent have the clearcut top guy getting 3/42. I could see 4/56. 3/42 ... I'd be stunned, even if they are correct that few teams are searching for MI.

 

As a darkhorse Cozart team ... I really wonder about the Diamondbacks. Their MI options were Ketel Marte and uh, Brandon Drury this past year, amongst others. Cozart would upgrade the defense and give them an impact bat to replace the departing JD Martinez, and with a bat in place, they'd have more flexibility on filling the OF spot than having to find an impact OF bat.

[davell]

Arizona is already 8 million over the highest payroll they've ever carried. I don't see them adding a SS, when they've still got to add a bat in the OF, without a system to really trade from.

 

I think Happ or Schwarber for Walker makes some sense for them though. If they can swing that, then adding Cozart becomes a possibility. But, it all depends on when Miller is ready to go.