Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 7-23-17

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa lost 9-3 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 0/3

RF M. Zagunis 0/4

3B-1B J. Candelario 1/4, 2B (26), K

SP A. Brooks 6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 6-3 GO-FO, 88-60 pitches-strikes

RP P. Johnson 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 WP, 0-1 GO-FO

RP D. Maples 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, 1-0 GO-FO

RP J. Leathersich 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K

 

Tennessee won game one 2-0 (9 innings) Box Score

 

LF C. Burks 0/3, BB

3B J. Vosler 1/4

2B D. Bote 2/4, R, 2B (21), K

SS A. Ely 1/2, R, 3B (2), RBI, 2 BB, K

SP A. Alzolay 6 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HBP, 3-8 GO-FO, 90-59 pitches-strikes

RP C. Brooks 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 2 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Tennessee lost game two 3-1 (7 innings) Box Score

 

LF C. Burks 0/1, 2 BB

3B J. Vosler 1/3

2B D. Bote 1/3, K

SS C. Penalver 0/3, E (16, fielding)

PH I. Rice 1/1, R, HR (14), RBI

SP Z. Hedges 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 6-4 GO-FO, 92-61 pitches-strikes

RP R. McNeil 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach lost 3-2 (13 innings) Box Score

 

SS Z. Shot 1/6, 2B (5), 3 K

2B V. Machin 0/5, BB, K, HBP

LF T. Giambrone 1/5, 2B (13), BB, K

DH E. Martinez 0/5, BB, 3 K

1B T. Alamo 2/5, R, BB, K, HBP

SP D. Robinson 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 5-2 GO-FO, 64-38 pitches-strikes, E (2, pickoff)

RP J. Norwood 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO

RP D. Mekkes 2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 1 K, 0-4 GO-FO

RP P. Araujo 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 2-3 GO-FO

 

South Bend lost 6-0 Box Score

 

2B A. Monasterio 1/4, 2B (3)

3B J. Pereda 0/3, K, E (5, fielding)

DH Y. Peguero 0/3, K

LF K. Mitchell 0/3, K

SS I. Paredes 0/3

CF DJ Wilson 0/3, K

1B J. Martarano 0/3, 2 K, 2 E (3, pickoff, throw)

RF L. Ayala 0/2, K

SP M. Rondon 4.2 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 3 HR, 4-3 GO-FO, 93-55 pitches-strikes, pickoff at first base

 

Eugene lost 4-0 Box Score

 

2B J. Bethencourt 0/4, K

SS A. Ademan 0/3, K, HBP

C M. Amaya 1/4, 2B (7), K, E (6, throw)

RF B. Hughes 1/4, 3 K, outfield assist at third base

DH A. Filiere 0/4, 2 K

1B G. Polanco 0/4, 2 K

3B R. Narea 1/4, E (5, fielding)

CF Z. Davis 0/3, 2 K

SP J. Assad 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 9-2 GO-FO, 67-49 pitches-strikes

RP E. Uelmen 1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2-0 GO-FO - pro debut

 

AZL Cubs, DSL Cubs 1 and DSL Cubs 2 had the day off

[UK]

Looking forward to seeing Rondon today in Beloit and how good his secondary stuff is.

[CubsWin]

Are Rucker and Alzolay the Cubs top two pitching prospects right now? Discuss.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have nothing else to do so let's spell it out.

 

AAA

 

Tseng - solid results at AA, good command with decent stuff, at AAA at 22 and off to a similar start

Williams - promising as next-gen Hendricks before his injury last year, now is mostly dead

Mills - partially dead

Butler/Brooks/Kelly - not enough missed bats or barrels

 

AA

 

Clifton - very strong start but fading hard, still at AA at 22 though and has the stuff/body to be a SP

Alzolay - solid results at A+ with increasingly strong stuff at 22

Hedges - his AAA experience illustrates he found his level at AA

Underwood - not even once

Morrison - speaking of finding his level

 

A+

 

Hatch - really hitting his stride after a slow start, good stuff, about to turn 23

Steele - decent results, just turned 22, needs to miss more bats or barrels(both would be great)

Rucker - great results, good stuff even after rotation conversion, 23 years old

De la Cruz - decent results, great stuff, injuries, 22

Kellogg - speaking of finding his level

Robinson - excellent control, 23, probably more Morrison/Bloomquist than Rucker

 

A-

 

Rondon - mediocre results, at 22 stuff isn't enough to look past it

Hudson - mediocre results, only 20 but stuff hasn't been good enough to be optimistic

Paulino - good stuff, mediocre results at 22, probably on a bullpen trajectory by AA

Miller - mediocre results, at 21 stuff isn't enough to look past it

Moreno - middling results, only 20 but injuries too

Sands - [ducks out of the way of flying baseball]

 

Short Season

 

Assad - only 19 but outright bad results

Camargo - 21 and FB/CH profile is probably a big cause, but great results

Clark - 22 and bad results, cannon fodder

Swarmer - good results but 23, was a reliever in South Bend prior

De Los rios - velocity, but 22 and only decent results

Garcia - 19 and decent results in early action

Albertos - great stuff and 18, but little to go on and injuries

 

Draftees

 

Little - good/very good stuff, lower level competition

Lange - good stuff, high level competition, some miles on the arm

Abbott - decent stuff, great results against low level competition

Thompson - TJS, good results against high level competition, good stuff still coming back

Uelmen - solid stuff against decent competition

Estrada - HS with stuff

 

 

Let's strip out the guys who shouldn't have much shot at a Top 10 SP list, we're left with:

 

AAA: Tseng

AA: Clifton, Alzolay

A+: Rucker, Hatch, De La Cruz, Steele

A-: yikes

Short Season: Albertos, Camargo

Draftees: Lange, Little, Abbott, Thompson, Estrada

 

From there it's easier to get a Top 5, in no particular order:

 

Rucker, Hatch, Alzolay, Lange, Little

 

I give the guys playing a bump for actually showing stuff in pro ball, and I don't see a compelling reason to put Hatch in front of the other two. So yeah, Alzolay and Rucker are the top 2 for me.

[davell]

Won't nitpick much from TT, but I think Steele has had a very solid year and raised his profile a good bit. Crawford actually said he's still got mid rotation upside.

 

Robinson has a Ryan Williams feel to me. And if Williams had stayed healthy, he'd likely be logging big league innings currently for someone.

 

Its still early enough in the year for Assad to turn things around and I suspect he will. He's got very solid stuff and has 7 walks, 31 K's in 29 innings. I like him a lot.

 

But currently? Yeah, Alzolay and Rucker are 1-2, Hatch is 3rd, Steele is 4th and Clifton is 5. I'm not including the draft picks or injured guys, and I guess I'm assuming Albertos is injured again. He'd be 4th otherwise.

[CubsWin]

BTW, in Rucker's start yesterday he was sitting 94 may touched higher and lower but that 94 was consistently on the black. If you can locate 94, you're going to get a lot of High-A guys out very easily. He also showed a change up with very good movement down and running back in to right-handers. He only threw it a couple times. Missed high with it once and it was muscled out into LF for a hit. He has a pretty good breaking ball that got swings and misses. I never got a velo reading on it but it looks like a slurve to me. In that I mean it's not a big breaker like most curves. It's has a shallower, sharper break but it has a little hump to it coming out of his hand. Most really good sliders look like fastballs until they suddenly break. This wasn't that, but it was effective at least against Carolina League hitters.

 

His wind up is so unassuming. He doesn't seem to load up. There's very little effort (which explains his excellent control) and yet he's throwing 93-96. I usually don't get too excited about guys until they dominate AA, but the fact that he's doing what he's doing as an 11th round draft pick adds a level of excitement for me.

 

Pro career: 85.1 IP, 60 H, 4 HR, 14 BB, 106 K, 1.58 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 2.62 FIP, 3.17 xFIP.

 

I'll take that start from any prospect, but I think next year in AA will be far more telling. If he can get more consistent with his change up, the Cubs may have something they can use.

 

And speaking of change ups, Jesus Camargo has a really good one. He doesn't really seem to wow you with anything else, but so far he's flat out dominating the NWL with it. He was pretty good in June, but since the calendar flipped to July...

 

2-0, 0.86 ERA, 21 IP, 11 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 24 K. With his stuff (or lack thereof) he's a prove it at every level guy, but he's proving in Eugene right now. Another find from Mexico.

[craig]

Thanks, win. For Rucker report especially, comfortable 94 with location, that sets up a lot of good counts and would be a fastball you can throw for a lot of strikes, and sometimes outs. A lot of breaking balls and changes are also a lot better when guys expect fastball, or when you've used fastball to get them into defensive 2-strike chase counts. Sounds like a guy. Seems to me also that sometimes stats can tell you something about stuff. If a guy is consistently getting outs, that maybe says it's not luck and that there's a stuff-based reason?

 

So, Camargo has no fastball, is that what you're saying? Basically living on the change? Or is the fastball average with control, even if you don't see much curve?

 

Just to be a wildly optimistic guy, I'm often a believe that a guy who can command a fastball, sometimes those guys have a capacity to develop breaking pitches over time and as need arrises. Guys who start out wild with the fastball, tougher fight, I think.

[craig]

....Let's strip out the guys who shouldn't have much shot at a Top 10 SP list, we're left with:

 

AAA: Tseng

AA: Clifton, Alzolay

A+: Rucker, Hatch, De La Cruz, Steele

A-: yikes

Short Season: Albertos, Camargo

Draftees: Lange, Little, Abbott, Thompson, Estrada....

 

I don't much care about ranking top 2 or top 5. That seems very much the collection of guys who are rotation candidates overall, other than rookie-league and DSL Latins.

 

That's not a great pool, but there is some volume of interesting guys. And I'm optimistic that we've got a development group that can handle them well. Those are 14 names, and health permitting there's a chance that 13 of them, all but Estrada, will be in full-season next year. You've got some guys to draw from for injury-replacement; roster-yo-yo; and potential back-of-rotation guy.

 

I think it's fun, and hope we get lucky with that pool. Very optimistic.

[craig]

From friend on other board:

 

McCloud was on the Score. When questioned about the pitching in the lower minors, he singled out Tseng as a guy at AAA. He mentioned that Tseng was 90-93 with a cutter and excellent change up. At AA he mentioned Alzozay and that he threw harder than Tseng. McLoud when he got to lower minors mentioned Rucker.

 

Things I found interesting:

1. May be that Cubs like Tseng better than the board does, and take him seriously. Not sure whether Jason would bother to detail Tseng's stuff if he's perceived as just an AAAA no-stuff guy who's not going to fit into our pitching top-ten. I didn't know he was a cutter guy, myself. Obviously 90-93 fastball isn't very fast, and he's a soft-toss finesse guy. But the ability to locate/command a 90-93 fastball as needed, and use that as a change-up relative to cutter/change/curve, that's an arsenal of different speeds and movements that a guy can perhaps pitch with. Think we've tended to write Tseng off as a no-stuff guy; but maybe his recent and season-composite success is telling us that his stuff is enough and diverse enough to work?

 

2. Thought it interesting that he mentioned Rucker from Myrtle, rather than Hatch or Steele.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I almost had Tseng in my top 5, FWIW. In fact he was there but then I realized I had forgotten Alzolay and he was bumped off. Guys who can limit hits, homers, and walks like he can will be able to get away with a bit less swing and miss, especially since no one is going to count on him spearheading an MLB rotation.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, I think Tseng is undervalued on this board. He has the ability to be a league average starter due to a wide arsenal and great command. It's not incredibly sexy (and I don't think he'll be as good as Kyle so don't think of this as a comparison) but how sexy is Hendricks?

[craig]

Think most successful pitchers have one excellent pitch. Not sure is Tseng has any. Maybe his change is.

 

But I think if you can locate/spot your fastball when needed, and then mix that in with three other pitches (change/curve/cutter), that gives a diversity of pitches to work with and mix up. If you can control, you can win a lot of starts with that. Having something like that as your 6th starter in Iowa next year could be useful. Or, using a guy like that as 5th starter to replace Lackey's $32/2 contract, while focusing your Lackey/Arrieta/Montero/Koji/Anderson money on one one above-average starter, might make some value too.

[UMFan83]

 

#hottake

[We Got The Whole 9]

Alzolay had a very nice start again 6 IP 5H 0ER 5:1

[CubsWin]

Great discussion, y'all. Thanks!

 

Javier Assad matched Adrian Morejon pitch for pitch giving up 1 hit in 6 innings with no walks and 4 K on 67 pitches thus far. Morejon was brilliant again. I fear he's the one who got away.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

After 6 scoreless from Assad in a 0-0 game, Erlich Bachman made his pro debut and has let the first 4 on.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

[UK]

From Beloit:

 

M. Rondon, the best way to describe him is that he is good without being good. 90-94FB, decent but not great arm side run. Flashed a solid change and below avg slider. With 2 ml pitches and very clean mechanic, you'd expect more. But, there is no deception whatsoever, it's coming to the hitter like a beach ball.

 

The only others of note are Wilson and Parades, who I would give marginal grades to with Parades getting a high marginal and Wilson a low marginal.

 

Please send the LB back to Boise St. I know there's rust but that spot should go to someone deserving.

[cincycub31]

Love the starting pitching prospect analysis. Given how he is often mentioned as possibly our best prospect, I still think Jose Albertos needs to find his way into the top 5. I understand his injury history and lack of track record, but I view him much as we did Cease before this year. Is it safe to say neither Rucker or Alzolay were on anybody's top 30 prospects when the season began?

[craig]

From friend on other board:

 

McCloud was on the Score. When questioned about the pitching in the lower minors, he singled out Tseng as a guy at AAA. He mentioned that Tseng was 90-93 with a cutter and excellent change up. At AA he mentioned Alzozay and that he threw harder than Tseng. McLoud when he got to lower minors mentioned Rucker.

...

2. Thought it interesting that he mentioned Rucker from Myrtle, rather than Hatch or Steele.

 

Two things:

 

1. My point 2 was wrong. He mentioned Rucker, yes. But he ALSO mentioned Hatch, as a sinker/slider guy.

 

2. Cubswin: You watched Tseng pitch a couple of starts ago, when he had a good outing. Does MacLeod's reference to Tseng with a 90-93 fastball seem representative from what you saw/recall? Or is that a little scouting-director exaggeration/hype? Or maybe "90-93" is really more what he tops at most starts, as opposed to where he typically throws his fastball most starts? Or does that 90-93 seem in line with what you saw?

 

Or is it just not even hardly relevant? If he's throwing 90 pitches, and 35 are curveballs, 25 are cutters, 15 are changes, and only 15 are regular fastballs, do you even notice them and does it matter much if they are coming in at 90 versus 92 or 93? Or if there are 25 cutters, 10 2-seamers, and five 4-seam fastballs, how can you even notice or remember?

[ddwyer]

From Beloit:

 

M. Rondon, the best way to describe him is that he is good without being good. 90-94FB, decent but not great arm side run. Flashed a solid change and below avg slider. With 2 ml pitches and very clean mechanic, you'd expect more. But, there is no deception whatsoever, it's coming to the hitter like a beach ball.

 

The only others of note are Wilson and Parades, who I would give marginal grades to with Parades getting a high marginal and Wilson a low marginal.

 

Please send the LB back to Boise St. I know there's rust but that spot should go to someone deserving.

 

I was also at the Beloit game Sunday (my first low A game in over 30 years). Certainly not much to talk about from an offensive standpoint. Wilson ran down a couple of nice balls in center. I wish they had a radar gun so we could have seen some pitch speeds.

[CubsWin]

From friend on other board:

 

McCloud was on the Score. When questioned about the pitching in the lower minors, he singled out Tseng as a guy at AAA. He mentioned that Tseng was 90-93 with a cutter and excellent change up. At AA he mentioned Alzozay and that he threw harder than Tseng. McLoud when he got to lower minors mentioned Rucker.

...

2. Thought it interesting that he mentioned Rucker from Myrtle, rather than Hatch or Steele.

 

Two things:

 

1. My point 2 was wrong. He mentioned Rucker, yes. But he ALSO mentioned Hatch, as a sinker/slider guy.

 

2. Cubswin: You watched Tseng pitch a couple of starts ago, when he had a good outing. Does MacLeod's reference to Tseng with a 90-93 fastball seem representative from what you saw/recall? Or is that a little scouting-director exaggeration/hype? Or maybe "90-93" is really more what he tops at most starts, as opposed to where he typically throws his fastball most starts? Or does that 90-93 seem in line with what you saw?

 

Or is it just not even hardly relevant? If he's throwing 90 pitches, and 35 are curveballs, 25 are cutters, 15 are changes, and only 15 are regular fastballs, do you even notice them and does it matter much if they are coming in at 90 versus 92 or 93? Or if there are 25 cutters, 10 2-seamers, and five 4-seam fastballs, how can you even notice or remember?

Getting velo reports is it and miss when relying on the play-by-play announcer to mention them. From what I remember, he threw a good amount of fastballs and curves. The mentioned velocities were 89 and 90, but there certainly could've been others thrown harder than that. Out of 90 pitches 2 or 3 get velocity reports.

 

What made Tseng effective was his command of those pitches. When you're throwing your off speed pitches for strikes and getting swings and misses, a 90 mph FB on the black will get the job done, at least in AAA. He reminded of Kyle Hendricks. Not in the types of pitches he throws but in that if his command is on, he can be effective. If Kyle is leaving things up and over the plate, he'll get hit. I suspect it's the same for Tseng.

 

Now, as it does with most pitchers, it comes down to how consistently can he pitch with that good command.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just to nitpick, Hatch is only 5 months younger than Rucker(April v. September birthdays in the same year), and while Hatch has shown great HR prevention(2 in 85 IP), so has Rucker(3 in 60 IP).

 

Re: Lange, my comment on mileage is mostly related to this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-workloads-of-2017s-top-draft-prospects/

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm kind of really thrilled with taking a pitcher in the 11th round who barely started in college (low mileage) and having him run a 2.5 FIP as a starter in his first 1/3 of a full season. 4 pitches he can command - we need more guys like that right now, IMO.

[CubsWin]

As the guy who was easily the highest on Rucker coming into the season...

I didn't know Kellogg was spelled R-U-C-K-E-R. Learn something new every day.