2018 Draft Thread

[OleMissCub]

Casey Mize threw a no-hitter tonight.

 

13k and 0 walks in the effort. Mercy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Casey Mize threw a no-hitter tonight.

 

Bryce Montes de Oca threw 7 no-hit inning last weekend as part of a combined Mizzou no-hitter.

 

Stay healthy and this guy is a serious 1-1 candidate. Stuff, skills, pro size, skills, stuff, and skills...The first time I saw him he reminded me alot of Brandon Morrow coming out of school with, again, a way better skillset as a SP. He's the Jon Gray to Singer's early fallen Appel.

 

[OleMissCub]

 

His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.

[Regular Show]

 

His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.

 

I don't know if that holds true anymore. The conventional wisdom used to be that screwballs and splitters were really bad for your arm/shoulder, but I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I also remember hearing or reading that throwing too many curveballs at a young age is bad. I think they've proven throwing a curveball puts less stress on the UCL/elbow area than throwing a fastball.

 

Ultimately, I think it really depends on the pitcher's mechanics, and you have to judge it on a case-by-case basis.

[Bertz]

 

His arm is going to explode from that splitter. I have to question the need to throw so many splitters, and by all accounts he threw a bunch, in an early season game against an OOC opponent. I get that he's showing off for scouts and all that, but damn dude, maybe ease up a little bit to ensure that you even have an arm by the time of the draft.

 

I don't know if that holds true anymore. The conventional wisdom used to be that screwballs and splitters were really bad for your arm/shoulder, but I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I also remember hearing or reading that throwing too many curveballs at a young age is bad. I think they've proven throwing a curveball puts less stress on the UCL/elbow area than throwing a fastball.

 

Ultimately, I think it really depends on the pitcher's mechanics, and you have to judge it on a case-by-case basis.

 

In The Arm, Jeff Passan made it sound like the main driver of injury is thought to be velocity at this point.

 

Then again, the Tommy John apocalypse that he predicted that drove him to write the book looks to have just been a two year blip so who knows. I think anything beyond "pitching is bad" is just theory.

[CubsWin]

So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

[Cubswin11]

So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

That sounds about right +/- a spot or two on the comp picks (might still depend on where Cobb and Holland go since they are the only 2 FA left with QO's attached I believe). Really hoping we end with 1-2 solid prospects that pan out with the 5 picks in the top 100 and 4 in the top 80.

 

I may have asked this already, but how much extra draft pool do the 2 QO picks net us?

[Bertz]

So mlb.com had the Cubs picking 24th, 63rd, 76th (comp pick for Davis) and 98th in the top 3 rounds. With the Arrieta signing, does that become 24th, 63rd, 76th, 77th and 99th?

That sounds about right +/- a spot or two on the comp picks (might still depend on where Cobb and Holland go since they are the only 2 FA left with QO's attached I believe). Really hoping we end with 1-2 solid prospects that pan out with the 5 picks in the top 100 and 4 in the top 80.

 

I may have asked this already, but how much extra draft pool do the 2 QO picks net us?

 

Based on last year's numbers, looks like about $1.5 million.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2017-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values/c-223686792

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs get pick 78 for Arrieta compensation (for now).

 

http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order

[Regular Show]

A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glance-at-matthew-liberatores-draft-stock/

[javy knows my name]

A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glance-at-matthew-liberatores-draft-stock/

 

Can you do me a huge favor and post the full horsefeathering name of horsefeathering 17 year olds that nobody's horsefeathering heard of?

 

You know a lot about draft prospects and you post a lot of cool horsefeathers about them and I'd like to benefit from your knowledge rather than wanting to choke you out.

[CoolHandLuke]

A lot of posters here really like LHP - M. Liberatore so I'll post the link to a recent article on Fangraphs. I still think the Cubs have no chance at him, and it's kind of a waste of time to dream on getting him. I do think his velocity picks up as we get closer to the draft, and that he gets taken in the 2-8 range.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-glance-at-matthew-liberatores-draft-stock/

 

Can you do me a huge favor and post the full horsefeathering name of horsefeathering 17 year olds that nobody's horsefeathering heard of?

 

You know a lot about draft prospects and you post a lot of cool horsefeathers about them and I'd like to benefit from your knowledge rather than wanting to choke you out.

 

Woah, killer.

 

If you really cared about benefitting from the knowledge, you'd have probably clicked the link. And found out what the M stands for.

 

Or you could probably type the last name followed by "mlb draft prospect" and have a pretty decent chance is figuring it out all by yourself.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's 2nd Draft Tracker: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-draft-tracker-casey-mize-making-his-case/

 

Stock Rising:

 

Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

Alec Brohm, 3B, Wichita State

Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

 

Stock Falling:

 

Griffin Conine, OF, Duke

Nick Springel, LHP, San Diego

 

Pop-Up Player:

 

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Fivay High (Hudson, FL) - Kiley McDaniel mentioned him earlier this week too:

 

 

One To Watch:

 

Steve Hajjar, LHP, Central Catholic HS (Lawrence, MA)

[Regular Show]

So I'm going to do a short writeup on Wichita State 3B Alec Bohm. I considered him a top prospect going back a few months and wished I wrote about him before he blew up. Scouts love this guy now.

 

I think everyone who follows draft prospects here pretty closely knows about this guy and his teammate (Greyson Jenista). They're both top prospects who should go in the 1st round. Jenista is the better athlete I believe, but I'm convinced Bohm has the superior bat. Bohm is a big guy at 6'5" and 240 lbs with good physicality. I don't think he'll get much bigger, but he's already plenty strong. He might slow down as he gets older. Scouts aren't sure if he can stick at 3B since his speed and arm strength only rate as average. (Correction: I talked to someone and got this wrong. His speed is considered below-average. His time from home-to-1B is not good. My bad.) If he can't stick at 3B everyone says he'll have to move to 1B because he doesn't have the speed or range to play corner OF. That's the downside and pessimistic view. I think he can stick at 3B personally.

 

His bat is what makes him special. He bats righthanded and it's a very nice swing. He takes a small stride forward and has a short swing. Doesn't sell out for power or try to pull everything. He has tremendous raw power. Some scouts predict he'll be capable of hitting 30+ HRs in his peak. His stat line this season is excellent (.340/.471/.736) with a 14/8 BB to K ratio right now. Only 5 HRs so far, but he should set a career high. He hit 11 HRs last year. The Cubs are probably familiar with his game, and I bet they like him a lot because of his performance in the Cape Cod League. He hit .330/.407/.552 for the Wilmington Sharks in 2016, and then last year hit .351/.399/.513 for the Falmouth Commodores.

 

I think right now he'll get taken anywhere from 7-20 in the draft. If the Cubs get a chance I think they'll seriously consider taking him. The draft is so loaded in high quality power pitching prospects that maybe the Cubs would select a pitcher even if Bohm is available at #24. Pitching prospects have more inherent risk though so we'll see. I really like Bohm and believe he's one of the top 3 hitting prospects in this draft.

 

[bbvideo=853,480]

[/bbvideo] Edited March 19, 2018 by Regular Show

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nice to see BA love for Hajjar. He's right up there with Childress, maybe higher since he's the better athlete, as my Liberatore replacement.

 

I'm always interested in northern prep arms since they generally have less wear and tear on them.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Regular Show]

 

Well, that's certainly good news. I remember reading an article saying scouts were weary of those HS arms from Georgia like Hankins because they pitch so much during the school year and over the summer.

 

Yeah, I also like northern prep arms because they seem to have less wear-and-tear.

[Regular Show]

I guess I'll do another short writeup on a pitcher I like in RHP Kumar Rocker.

 

Weird name for a baseball player. The kid pitches for North Oconee HS in Georgia and is a Vanderbilt commit. That tells you right away he's a serious pitching prospect. The first thing you notice watching him pitch is how big he is. He's a big dude with a strong lower-half. He's listed at 6'5" and is already 250 lbs. Good athlete and good genes. His father played in the NFL. He may get larger as he gets older, but he seems pretty physically mature right now. Conditioning and watching his weight will be important as he gets older is my guess.

 

He throws exceptionally hard for a kid in HS. His fastball is consistently hitting the mid-to-upper 90's right now. It's a pretty easy motion too. Not overthrowing or using maximum effort. I've noticed his fastball has very slight running movement. It also occasionally sinks. Not sure if he throws a two-seamer. It's a good motion overall and he starts with his hands over his head. His fastball command is good right now. Sometimes it looks like he's just slinging it up there and other times it looks like he's actually pitching and hitting his spots. The slider doesn't seem that impressive to me, but scouts list it as average to above-average. I haven't seen him throw a good changeup -- he doesn't need one right now. He can literally overpower every HS hitter right now with his fastball. He isn't deceptive and hitters get a good look at his fastball. I wonder if better hitters will square it up more in the future if Rocker doesn't spot the fastball and/or mix up his pitches.

 

I'm not sure about where I rank all the talented pitchers in this draft. I like all these pitchers in the HS ranks: Carter Stewart, Matthew Liberatore, Mason Denaburg, Ethan Hankins and Cole Winn. Then you add Kumar Rocker to that list and it's a mighty impressive list of prep arms. That group is my Tier 1 for pitching prospects in HS. I might be forgetting someone and some arms might emerge and join that group this spring. I really like Rocker and the velocity on his fastball is very impressive. I'm a little worried he might blow out his arm and require TJS, but that's probably true of every pitcher I listed here.

 

I'll list my preferences once we get closer to the draft. Right now if Kumar Rocker was available to the Cubs at #24 and they took him I'd be pretty cool with that selection.

 

[bbvideo=853,480]

[/bbvideo]

 

[bbvideo=853,480]

[/bbvideo]

 

[bbvideo=853,480]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_QoO73dDjs[/bbvideo]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Hrubes20]

 

Chances that he falls to 24? My kind of potential injury faller so far by avoiding surgery.

 

0%?

[Regular Show]

Yeah, I was going to say the same thing. Hankins like Liberatore will only fall to the Cubs if he's injured and/or his stuff really falls off in quality.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's 2nd Draft Tracker: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2018-draft-tracker-casey-mize-making-his-case/

 

Stock Rising:

 

Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn

Alec Brohm, 3B, Wichita State

Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS (CA)

 

Stock Falling:

 

Griffin Conine, OF, Duke

Nick Springel, LHP, San Diego

 

Pop-Up Player:

 

Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Fivay High (Hudson, FL) - Kiley McDaniel mentioned him earlier this week too:

 

 

One To Watch:

 

Steve Hajjar, LHP, Central Catholic HS (Lawrence, MA)

 

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

So if you don't want to watch the video he lists his very early projection for the top 5 picks in this year's MLB Draft. His list:

 

1. LHP - S. McClanahan

2. RHP - B. Singer

3. RHP - C. Mize

4. SS/2B - N. Madrigal

5. LHP - M. Liberatore

 

I like Jim Callis, but I feel like his mock drafts and knowledge/inside info gets a lot better once we get closer to the draft. I'm not sure if Singer is regarded that highly anymore by scouts. Has his stuff bounced back? I'm not sure if Madrigal goes that high either with his wrist injury.

[craig]

Thanks for input, friends.

 

After the Heyward/Zobrist draft, it makes me appreciate how fun it is having the Cubs involved again last year and this. Not quite like last year with two firsts, but picking 5 spots earlier does make it more interesting to imagine somebody really good. Having four top-80 picks is really fun.

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Another good hitting prospect in the draft that most definitely won't fall all the way to the Cubs. I really wish they allowed teams to trade up/trade down in the draft.