Starting Pitching candidates

[davell]

I'm afraid the price on Gray is going to be insane, since I don't see many other options out there. I doubt Shark or Cueto are dealt personally.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He's not on the list but I'll reiterate that I would do terrible things to convince the Jays to trade Stroman. Things that don't make sense in foresight or hindsight.

 

Outside of that, I continue to be a fan of Quintana but that's unlikely for external reasons alone. Gray is conflicting, there's a lot to like about him when he's on the mound but having forearm and lat injuries in the last 12 months is terrifying. Samardzija and Cueto are both worthy targets but I bet against either being dealt. Cobb could be interesting in a Matt Moore sense, but on that team I'd rather see if they've come down on what the ask would be for Odorizzi. There's others where you could see a possible but less likely chance of the player being dealt(Teheran, Norris) too, and that almost feels more likely since the front office has been unorthodox with most pitching acquisitions.

[davell]

It'd be an off season move, but I wonder how low Boston would sell on Price?

[Post Count Padder]

Look no further than Iowa; we just locked up former Nationals great and first round pick Ross Detwiler.

 

Cubs signed LHP Ross Detwiler to a minor league contract.

The veteran left-hander was cut loose by the Athletics in mid-May after posting an uninspiring 6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and 12/8 K/BB ratio across 14 innings at Triple-A Nashville. He'll add bullpen depth in the minor leagues for the Cubs. Jun 17 - 9:48 AM

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't consider Passan a super connected rumormonger, but it's interesting as a thought exercise at least:

 

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What SP, if any, would you trade Eloy to get? Is Archer one of them?

[CyHawk_Cub]

Needs to be a true TORP for me to be even somewhat o.k. w/ moving Eloy. Archer is such a guy.

 

Wouldn't use Eloy for someone like Gray, sounds crazy perhaps, but nor would I for Cole.

[Cubswin11]

I don't consider Passan a super connected rumormonger, but it's interesting as a thought exercise at least:

 

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What SP, if any, would you trade Eloy to get? Is Archer one of them?

I'd go back and forth on it but at the end of the day I probably trade Eloy for him, if his medicals (and whatever else they look at) check out. Of any other reasonable/available targets out there I don't think there's another pitcher out there I'd trade him for. I don't think I'd trade him for Stroman, I would've traded him for Sale.

[Tim]

I don't consider Passan a super connected rumormonger, but it's interesting as a thought exercise at least:

 

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What SP, if any, would you trade Eloy to get? Is Archer one of them?

It's an interesting thought experiment, but not likely to be much more than that. Given Archer's contract, the value is right if the FO feels that he'll hold up. He's under control through 2021 at very reasonable prices. You have to be pretty convinced that Eloy will be a superstar to say no to that deal. Of course, I'm pretty confident Eloy will be a superstar, so it is a tough sell for me.

 

In the end, I'd probably do it, though I'd hate myself afterwards if Archer broke down or regressed.

[David]

yeah, i'd do it.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Eloy is going to be more than what we thought Georgie could be

[Cubswin11]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

[davell]

Passan breaks his fair share of stuff. I'd do this, without much hesitation and I LOVE Eloy. The odds of Tampa selling him this year seems miniscule, at best. They'll probably deal Cobb, even if they stay in the race.

 

But trading Archer, or even Odorizzi, is likely a death blow to their already pathetic attendance, by trading them away while in a playoff race. Or even leading it, which they currently are in the second WC spot.

[Tim]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

Are you asking [Eloy by himself] vs [schwarber, Cease, Jeimer & Zagunis]?

[Cubswin11]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

Are you asking [Eloy by himself] vs [schwarber, Cease, Jeimer & Zagunis]?

No, pretty much just Schwarber vs Eloy as I'd assume the ancillary pieces would be similar (Cease, Jeimer, Zagunis, Caritini, Zas I guess, Clifton, etc.)

[Tim]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

Are you asking [Eloy by himself] vs [schwarber, Cease, Jeimer & Zagunis]?

No, pretty much just Schwarber vs Eloy as I'd assume the ancillary pieces would be similar (Cease, Jeimer, Zagunis, Caritini, Zas I guess, Clifton, etc.)

That's tough as I still believe Schwarber can be an elite hitter, be average in LF and provide occasional value behind the plate. He's already proven he can be a difference maker in the playoffs. However, the results this season have to be included in any analysis of him. He's never shown the contact skills that Eloy has demonstrated so far in his career. Eloy has a few extra years of control, but can't help this season. He likely wouldn't help next season until the end of the year, either.

 

In the end, I'd try to not be too reactionary to Schwarber's slow start and say that I still value him ever so slightly higher.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

I'd do it just because it seems less risky to spend big money on an offensive player in free agency than a pitcher who might break down soon after signing a seven-year, $200 million contract.

 

Trade Eloy and sign Harper to take his place.

[Clem Fandango]

Trade Eloy and sign Harper to take his place.

 

Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This is the Rays so I'm guessing they'll want Eloy and Javy.

[davell]

I'd expect the package mentioned, with Eloy or Schwarber involved, would bring back Archer, if they were inclined to sell. I don't think it'd get you Souza or Dickerson on top of Archer though. There's way too many teams in need of starting pitching. Its going to take a solid second piece, like Cease, plus the rest, to even get Archer alone.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

 

I would prefer to trade Eloy to Schwarber. Even if it was Schwarber, I probably wouldn't target an OF though, you're still looking at 3 spots to fill and Zobrist, Baez, Happ, Almora, and Jay to fill them.

 

If you're going for SP+ from the Rays, you might as well go for broke and try to get Colome. I wonder if there's any indicator at how trade costs scale with increasing value. Like if you keep asking for more stuff, is there a natural discount that you end up with because it's too hard to properly counter that much value? Or maybe more succinctly stated, is trading for Archer and Colome much cheaper than separate trades for Archer and Colome?

[davell]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

 

I would prefer to trade Eloy to Schwarber. Even if it was Schwarber, I probably wouldn't target an OF though, you're still looking at 3 spots to fill and Zobrist, Baez, Happ, Almora, and Jay to fill them.

 

If you're going for SP+ from the Rays, you might as well go for broke and try to get Colome. I wonder if there's any indicator at how trade costs scale with increasing value. Like if you keep asking for more stuff, is there a natural discount that you end up with because it's too hard to properly counter that much value? Or maybe more succinctly stated, is trading for Archer and Colome much cheaper than separate trades for Archer and Colome?

 

If it were much cheaper, why would Tampa even do it?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As part of this exercise, would you rather include Eloy in a deal or do something like Schwarber, Cease, Jeimer and Zagunis for Archer and Dickerson/Souza (to take over LF/OF role Schwarber leaves open)?

 

I would prefer to trade Eloy to Schwarber. Even if it was Schwarber, I probably wouldn't target an OF though, you're still looking at 3 spots to fill and Zobrist, Baez, Happ, Almora, and Jay to fill them.

 

If you're going for SP+ from the Rays, you might as well go for broke and try to get Colome. I wonder if there's any indicator at how trade costs scale with increasing value. Like if you keep asking for more stuff, is there a natural discount that you end up with because it's too hard to properly counter that much value? Or maybe more succinctly stated, is trading for Archer and Colome much cheaper than separate trades for Archer and Colome?

 

If it were much cheaper, why would Tampa even do it?

 

A two player deal is probably a bad example of the concept. What I'm driving at is that despite everyone's best efforts, trades aren't a matter of swapping two dimes and a nickel to get a quarter, since no one values the coins exactly the same way. Given that truth, the more value you add to a trade, the higher the chance of inequity since there are more potential mismatches in valuation.

[Tim]

How come in imagined SP trades the Cubs are always going to overpay and impact second pieces can't really be had with paying way more? Isn't that pretty much the opposite of how SP trades have been going?

I'd be interested if you could cite some examples.

[davell]

 

I would prefer to trade Eloy to Schwarber. Even if it was Schwarber, I probably wouldn't target an OF though, you're still looking at 3 spots to fill and Zobrist, Baez, Happ, Almora, and Jay to fill them.

 

If you're going for SP+ from the Rays, you might as well go for broke and try to get Colome. I wonder if there's any indicator at how trade costs scale with increasing value. Like if you keep asking for more stuff, is there a natural discount that you end up with because it's too hard to properly counter that much value? Or maybe more succinctly stated, is trading for Archer and Colome much cheaper than separate trades for Archer and Colome?

 

If it were much cheaper, why would Tampa even do it?

 

A two player deal is probably a bad example of the concept. What I'm driving at is that despite everyone's best efforts, trades aren't a matter of swapping two dimes and a nickel to get a quarter, since no one values the coins exactly the same way. Given that truth, the more value you add to a trade, the higher the chance of inequity since there are more potential mismatches in valuation.

 

OK, I see what your saying. The larger deals though, where the "selling off" team is legitimately giving up more than one actually good piece, have to be rare, though. Right?

 

I can conceivably see where a selling team is so in love with one or even two pieces from the buying team, they could fall into that type of trap. It'd probably take a very specific scenario and all, where the competing teams just don't have the same caliber of headliner.

[Cubswin11]

Wily Peralta continues to really struggle for the Brewers, has been moved to the pen for a few weeks now, I still really like him as a buy low guy if he gets DFA'd or they look to trade him for pennies on the dollar. I think there could be an elite relief pitcher in there if not a middle rotation starter still. I also think Bosio worked with him some when he was with the Brewers so a change of scenery/getting back with Bosio could help.