4/22 World Champion Cubs (Arrieta) @ Reds (Reed) 12:10 ABC 7

[David]

Duensing should be the mop up relievers, used mostly in 6 run blowouts...oh wait.

You have a special knack at complaining about things that people don't say that make you angry, keep up the good work and have a xanax ovn me.

 

Duensing sucks.

He is a loogy and he's very good at that

[bukie]

lol Heyward is gonna be worth 7 wins this year.

 

Is it wrong to gain great pleasure knowing how much that would horsefeather off Cardinal fans?

 

Not as much as the combo of Jay/Almora > Fowler in WAR.

Jay, Almora and Heyward have each been worth 0.3 WAR to this point, while Fowler has been worth -0.2.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

In all honesty, I think this is a better team than last year's team. (My opinion on that may change, depending on how Hendricks looks going forward.) But it's going to be awfully hard to replicate those results. I mean, we won 103 games, won the World Series, had a crazy run differential and everything. I don't think we were lucky last year. But... it was all so very easy. That might not be the case this year. But I do feel this team might be better, with the addition of Schwarber, Heyward looking fixed, and the young guys seeming like they are improving.

The development of Addy and Contreras is fun to see. The really isn't any serious weakness position/batting wise on the team if we are judging them rationally. If the starters come around, which they should, this team can basically stand pat at the deadline, no problem.

 

Yeah, and I guess things weren't so easy last year. We had that bad stretch before the All-Star Break, and then Arrieta went from god-mode to whatever you want to call 2016 Arrieta. And Heyward was, well, horrible.

 

And injuries could easily dampen my enthusiasm.

 

But, I'm sensing a whirlwind of good timing this year. Practically all of these position players are really good, and nearly all of them are really young, but now they have experience. We might be getting prime years from the whole lineup. And I'm encouraged by Arrieta in the early going.

[bukie]

Let's play trivia...which Cub pitcher in the early going has the best xFIP?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Let's play trivia...which Cub pitcher in the early going has the best xFIP?

 

It's got to be Arrieta, right?

[bukie]

Let's play trivia...which Cub pitcher in the early going has the best xFIP?

 

It's got to be Arrieta, right?

Best starter, yes. Including relievers, no.

 

None have come close to Rondon's ridiculous April 2016 though, which broke xFIP.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Ah, it's the guy who took Travis Wood's spot -- who by the way has a 13.50 ERA, 7.82 FIP, and 8.10 xFIP.

[bukie]

Ah, it's the guy who took Travis Wood's spot -- who by the way has a 13.50 ERA, 7.82 FIP, and 8.10 xFIP.

Though I'm not sure he'd ever match Wood's prowess in left, or the bat.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I get a twisted satisfaction out of seeing former Cubs immediately turning to suck after leaving here. And it's not that I don't like guys like Wood and Fowler. I really liked them both and will always look back fondly on their whole time with the Cubs.

 

But, Theo is such a freak. He always cashes out his shares at the right moment. And he rarely buys in at a wrong moment, save for Edwin Jackson (and we'll see how Heyward works out).

 

But, seriously, look at all the random guys we've had under Theo that have given us the best years of their careers. Fowler gave us what were, by far and away, his best two seasons, left after those two seasons and has been bad. Samardzija turned to horsefeathers. Garza turned to horsefeathers. It's even happened in-season. Hammel was good, then was traded and turned to horsefeathers with the A's. He re-signed over the winter and was good again. And he'll assuredly turn to horsefeathers with the Royals. Coghlan randomly gave us two 3-win seasons. Then he was traded before the next season and turned to horsefeathers, posting -1.5 WAR with his new team. Theo trades to get him back and he gets on base at a .391 clip and is worth a win in a part-time role for second-half of the season. He leaves and can't even make the Phillies roster in Spring Training.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

It's uncanny. And it's not just that he understands, oh that guy was lucky or had a fluky BABIP or something, or that he gets rid of guys before they get old and fall apart. He is somehow able to figure this horsefeathers out for guys with no "tell" in their age or stats. The Coghlan timeline is the absolute weirdest horsefeathers. How it that possible?

[bukie]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

 

Yeah, but LeMahieu was a prospect, and who knows what will happen with them. I'm talking more specifically about knowing when to cash out. And on a lesser level when to randomly buy-in on a guy like Coghlan or Valbuena -- which Stewart would fit into. But, he's obviously going to miss on those lottery ticket guys more often. It's the cashing out part where I think he's been uncanny, though. Has there been one guy who was with our big league club, left and got better since Theo's been here?

[bukie]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

 

Yeah, but LeMahieu was a prospect, and who knows what will happen with them. I'm talking more specifically about knowing when to cash out. And on a lesser level when to randomly buy-in on a guy like Coghlan or Valbuena -- which Stewart would fit into. But, he's obviously going to miss on those lottery ticket guys more often. It's the cashing out part where I think he's been uncanny, though. Has there been one guy who was with our big league club, left and got better since Theo's been here?

The big league club was a bit of a mess when he got here, to be fair.

 

The only feasible asset that could potentially still be better going forward is Castro, but last year was not good for him.

[bukie]

Which reminds me of one of my pet peeves about the "Theo lost on purpose for 3 years" argument...the major league roster and system was in a shambles when he got here and he correctly prioritized improving the system, while giving the existing system opportunities at the major league level. Turns out they were not major league quality players, which basically everyone knew. Going for the short-term roster fix in an effort to win 80 games was not the right play, and Theo knew it. The losing happened all on its own as the front office overhauled everything else, knowing that eventually the roster would develop on its own...and it did!

[David]

Which reminds me of one of my pet peeves about the "Theo lost on purpose for 3 years" argument...the major league roster and system was in a shambles when he got here and he correctly prioritized improving the system, while giving the existing system opportunities at the major league level. Turns out they were not major league quality players, which basically everyone knew. Going for the short-term roster fix in an effort to win 80 games was not the right play, and Theo knew it. The losing happened all on its own as the front office overhauled everything else, knowing that eventually the roster would develop on its own...and it did!

RIP Brett Jackson

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

 

Yeah, but LeMahieu was a prospect, and who knows what will happen with them. I'm talking more specifically about knowing when to cash out. And on a lesser level when to randomly buy-in on a guy like Coghlan or Valbuena -- which Stewart would fit into. But, he's obviously going to miss on those lottery ticket guys more often. It's the cashing out part where I think he's been uncanny, though. Has there been one guy who was with our big league club, left and got better since Theo's been here?

The big league club was a bit of a mess when he got here, to be fair.

 

The only feasible asset that could potentially still be better going forward is Castro, but last year was not good for him.

 

We've traded a few more players that weren't old since we started going for it, though. There are other guys who we could've looked back at as trades that bit us in the ass. Welington Castillo, Dan Straily, Valbuena, Alcantara, Junior Lake... Soler could be in the future (he won't). And none of the proven veterans have rebounded and put together a good year after leaving, that I know of. They've all basically just died. You have guys like Emilio Bonifacio and Jason Motte, who were on their death beds, coming here and being decent, and then being below replacement-level after leaving. But there's no guys we took a chance on, discarded and then saw a renaissance.

 

The LeMahieu trade is the one objectively bad trade. And I know Theo's lamented not knowing enough about our organization when he got here. But, with the random moves, the non-core guys, the supplemental veterans or non-prospects, there's no guy who got away too early.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Which reminds me of one of my pet peeves about the "Theo lost on purpose for 3 years" argument...the major league roster and system was in a shambles when he got here and he correctly prioritized improving the system, while giving the existing system opportunities at the major league level. Turns out they were not major league quality players, which basically everyone knew. Going for the short-term roster fix in an effort to win 80 games was not the right play, and Theo knew it. The losing happened all on its own as the front office overhauled everything else, knowing that eventually the roster would develop on its own...and it did!

RIP Brett Jackson

 

Yeah, that's the other thing about when he took over. The farm was bad. But, in hindsight, it was worse than everyone thought. Vitters, Jackson, McNutt, etc. None of the guys panned out. There was no help at the upper levels. Baez and Willy came along. Vogelbach was able to be used in a trade. But they were so far away.

 

There was simply no way to win during those years unless a Jackson or a Vitters panned out.

[Tim]

Rodney had a hell of a run for SD last year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Rodney had a hell of a run for SD last year.

 

That's a good one. That's exactly what I'm looking for. Also, Adam Warren reverse-Coghlan'd us.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'm sure I've forgotten about others -- now that I remember Adam Warren being a pile of dog crap. But, I still Think Theo's probably batting about .950 here.

[BigSlick]

Yeah I thought Adam Warren was gonna be a nice little player for us, maybe even start, but boy did he suck.

 

And checking the numbers now he's given NYY 40 inning of excellent baseball since going back. Guess he just likes New York.

[Brian]

I feel like this belongs here

 

[Cubswin11]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

I said it somewhere in the offseason, but LeMahieu is basically Theriot with a little more BABIP and slightly more power both of which way may Coors Field aided, losing him is such a wet fart of a move that guys like Jesse Rogers like to write articles about.

[Sammy Sofa]

I suppose he did trade LeMahieu for Stewart, which didn't work out.

I said it somewhere in the offseason, but LeMahieu is basically Theriot with a little more BABIP and slightly more power both of which way may Coors Field aided, losing him is such a wet fart of a move that guys like Jesse Rogers like to write articles about.

 

IMO there's no maybe about it; his home/road splits are pretty glaring:

 

.333 .390 .461 .851 (1344 PA)

.264 .310 .337 .647 (1266 PA)