The Bryce is Right, Bitch

[Wilson A2000]

Are we just going to ignore that he called Jason Heyward a "Bryce Harper type of player"?

 

You can ignore that comment if you want to ignore Harper’s production. You are your stats.

[davell]

 

You might want to keep all those guys because their replacements wont be as good. But you won’t because you are overpaying for a RF’s production because he has good hair or something.

 

That's gonna get jumped on enough, so I'm going to try and respond from a baseball standpoint.....

 

Willy isn't a FA until he's 30 or so. You probably don't want to give a C a long term deal at that point. Rizzo will be older too. And 1B isn't hard to find production at, although my guess is they'll figure out a way to keep him.

 

And Javy can be kept, if he's still producing.

 

The Cubs have plenty of money and have 3-4 years to find some cheap guys at whatever spot they develop them at. They can certainly afford Bryce right now. And if you're insinuating he's not great, then I've got nothing to respond with, other than you're wrong. And you're getting him in his prime.

 

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF.

 

You're literally propping Heyward up with seasons he's 3 years removed from. You evidently think he's reverting back to pre 2016 Heyward?

[Wilson A2000]

 

That's gonna get jumped on enough, so I'm going to try and respond from a baseball standpoint.....

 

Willy isn't a FA until he's 30 or so. You probably don't want to give a C a long term deal at that point. Rizzo will be older too. And 1B isn't hard to find production at, although my guess is they'll figure out a way to keep him.

 

And Javy can be kept, if he's still producing.

 

The Cubs have plenty of money and have 3-4 years to find some cheap guys at whatever spot they develop them at. They can certainly afford Bryce right now. And if you're insinuating he's not great, then I've got nothing to respond with, other than you're wrong. And you're getting him in his prime.

 

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF.

 

You're literally propping Heyward up with seasons he's 3 years removed from. You evidently think he's reverting back to pre 2016 Heyward?

 

Is Harper the last two years or his MVP year? Even this year Heyward had a better season.

[Cubswin11]

What if I said that you could have a Bryce Harper-type of player for the next 5 years who plays RF at half the Harper price and wouldn’t have to give up anything for him? And you wouldn’t have to get into a long, 10 year contract.

 

That player is Jason Heyward. He essentially has the same WAR as Harper the last 6 years.

 

Now if you want to platoon Heyward in CF or move him to LF and trade for Harper, fine. But Harper is terribly overrated. Heyward has been as good in RF as Harper and Heyward has been bad the last 3 years.

 

The Cubs have budgets. Aren’t going to be able to re-sign KB, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras when you are significantly overpaying for a RF that you already have.

There's a good chance we don't want to re-sign any (or most) of those players once they hit FA. Rizzo will be 33, KB 30/31, Baez ~29 and a baseball weirdo that is incredibly hard to project what his value will be, Contreras will be a 30 year old catcher and giving him a big deal would be dumb and if we want to keep him the cost likely won't be prohibitive. We are also printing money for the foreseeable future, we can afford almost whatever we want.

 

Also on the Harper vs Heyward thing

 

Bryce Harper last 6 years (2013-2018, 2013 was Harper's 2nd year at 20 years old):

- .281/.396/.519

- 162 Dongs

- wOBA .387

- wRC+ 143

- 15% BB Rate, 21% K Rate

- 26.3 fWAR/22.2 bWAR (has surpassed 4 by both measures in last 3 years at least once and 3 or more in all 3 years by fWAR. Twice at 1.5 or under in bWAR which we know is largely defensive metrics and even the guys who make up the defensive stats know they aren’t an exact science)

 

Jason Heyward last 6 years (2013-2016, 2013 was Heyward's 4th full year at 23):

- .263/.338/.392

- 64 Dongs

- wOBA .321

- wRC+ 102

- 9% BB Rate, 14% K Rate

- 17.4 WAR/ 21 bWAR (Hasn’t surpassed 2.3 by either measure since 2015)

 

I'll give you the defense argument a little. But Harper is fine in LF or RF and lot of his WAR/metrics are dragged down this year by playing CF, Heyward is absolutely better at any spot but he has to be valuable on defense because he derives a ton of his value from it and as he ages that will likely slip. So again, I have no idea what you are talking about with this Harper vs Heyward thing especially since a ton of the Heyward offensive numbers are from a player we likely never see again and he still wasn't as good as Harper for the 6 year time period you cited that included him being a good offensive player.

Edited October 26, 2018 by Cubswin11

[NonProfitCow]

Is Harper the last two years or his MVP year? Even this year Heyward had a better season.

Going all in with rWAR/DRS I see.

[davell]

 

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF.

 

You're literally propping Heyward up with seasons he's 3 years removed from. You evidently think he's reverting back to pre 2016 Heyward?

 

Is Harper the last two years or his MVP year? Even this year Heyward had a better season.

 

You're using bWAR obviously. Go look at fWAR. Go look at the last 3 years of either. Harper's better by both. By a ton in fWAR.

 

And you're getting propped up solely by D. Which Heyward is getting older and will start to lose anyway.

 

That said, you're moving him to CF and into a true platoon with Almora, strengthening CF too, by adding Harper.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'd take Babe Ruth's last six years over either, imo

[David]

oh my god what the hell

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins.

 

[Clem Fandango]

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins.

 

 

FTFY

 

[David]

i still can't believe this

 

has wilson fallen asleep/been drunk for the 3 years of heyward the cubs have had or what the hell is going on in here?!

[Banedon]

Really good work on that photoshop, David.

[David]

Really good work on that photoshop, David.

??

[Banedon]

Really good work on that photoshop, David.

??

 

Errr...Logan...derp.

 

I read your post right before that...whoops.

[UMFan83]

I want Bryce, I dream about him, I would be willing to convert to the Mormon church if that's what it took for him to come here, but I'd be lying if I said his inconsistent numbers don't scare me at least a little when we'd be handing out a 10/$350m contract. You are giving him that for the 9 fWAR season he had in 2015 of course and we'd live with the 3-5 win (or 1-3 win if looking at BR) player he's been the rest of his career which is pretty damn good but would be slightly underwhelming.

[Clem Fandango]

Really good work on that photoshop, David.

??

 

Errr...Logan...derp.

 

I read your post right before that...whoops.

 

I thought you were referring to David's replacement of Addison with Bote in his signature, which I just noticed.

[Wilson A2000]

i still can't believe this

 

has wilson fallen asleep/been drunk for the 3 years of heyward the cubs have had or what the hell is going on in here?!

 

This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i still can't believe this

 

has wilson fallen asleep/been drunk for the 3 years of heyward the cubs have had or what the hell is going on in here?!

 

This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better.

 

1. It doesn't matter! Using Jason Heyward's 2013-2015(which is like 75% of that 6 year span WAR) as anything representative of what Heyward is going to do in 2019 and beyond is crazy. That ship has sailed, Heyward is not that player any more, we have 3 years and 2000ish plate appearances as proof.

 

2. bWAR is simply less accurate. For pitchers it can be a worthy counterpart to fWAR because it is more descriptive while fWAR is more predictive(e.g. ERA v. FIP), but for hitters there's no reason to use anything you see on BR outside of using the DRS defensive values for comparison/validation to what UZR is saying.

[Wilson A2000]

i still can't believe this

 

has wilson fallen asleep/been drunk for the 3 years of heyward the cubs have had or what the hell is going on in here?!

 

This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better.

 

1. It doesn't matter! Using Jason Heyward's 2013-2015(which is like 75% of that 6 year span WAR) as anything representative of what Heyward is going to do in 2019 and beyond is crazy. That ship has sailed, Heyward is not that player any more, we have 3 years and 2000ish plate appearances as proof.

 

2. bWAR is simply less accurate. For pitchers it can be a worthy counterpart to fWAR because it is more descriptive while fWAR is more predictive(e.g. ERA v. FIP), but for hitters there's no reason to use anything you see on BR outside of using the DRS defensive values for comparison/validation to what UZR is saying.

 

I’m not arguing that Heyward will play up to his best years. I’m fearful that the last three years of Harper are more representative of his future than his MVP year. We’re 1,500 ABs from Harper MVP season he hasn’t been nearly that type of player since.

[Brian]

wouldn't 2018 Bryce Harper have been the best player on the Cubs? or just slightly below Javy.

[Regular Show]

 

This is an honest question, but why is fWAR a better indication of WAR than bWAR? bWAR has Heyward and Harper averaging the same amount of wins the last 6 years. fWAR rates Harper better.

 

1. It doesn't matter! Using Jason Heyward's 2013-2015(which is like 75% of that 6 year span WAR) as anything representative of what Heyward is going to do in 2019 and beyond is crazy. That ship has sailed, Heyward is not that player any more, we have 3 years and 2000ish plate appearances as proof.

 

2. bWAR is simply less accurate. For pitchers it can be a worthy counterpart to fWAR because it is more descriptive while fWAR is more predictive(e.g. ERA v. FIP), but for hitters there's no reason to use anything you see on BR outside of using the DRS defensive values for comparison/validation to what UZR is saying.

 

I’m not arguing that Heyward will play up to his best years. I’m fearful that the last two years of Harper are more representative of his future than his MVP year.

 

Dude, just stop trying to make this comparison. If you have problems with Harper then just state that and mention how you think he'll be overpaid. Fine. That's your opinion.

 

Making a comparison between Heyward and Harper really undercuts whatever point you're trying to make. WAR is great and very useful in context, but you also need to check other metrics and the good old "eyeball test". Harper looks infinitely better at the plate and has a much better swing, batspeed and power.

[Splendid Splinter]

 

You might want to keep all those guys because their replacements wont be as good. But you won’t because you are overpaying for a RF’s production because he has good hair or something.

 

That's gonna get jumped on enough, so I'm going to try and respond from a baseball standpoint.....

 

Willy isn't a FA until he's 30 or so. You probably don't want to give a C a long term deal at that point. Rizzo will be older too. And 1B isn't hard to find production at, although my guess is they'll figure out a way to keep him.

 

And Javy can be kept, if he's still producing.

 

The Cubs have plenty of money and have 3-4 years to find some cheap guys at whatever spot they develop them at. They can certainly afford Bryce right now. And if you're insinuating he's not great, then I've got nothing to respond with, other than you're wrong. And you're getting him in his prime.

 

Is Heyward as great as Harper? The numbers say both players bring you the same wins. Pay for expected performance, sure. But why should we expect Harper to be significantly better than he has been? If the Cubs can afford to overspend and keep their great young core, great. But are the Cubs getting an upgrade in RF.

 

 

[Cubswin11]

I’m not arguing that Heyward will play up to his best years. I’m fearful that the last three years of Harper are more representative of his future than his MVP year. We’re 1,500 ABs from Harper MVP season he hasn’t been nearly that type of player since.

 

Harper's MVP 2015:

- .331/.463/.649 (.371 BABIP)

- 19% K rate, 19% BB rate

- .462 wOBA

- 198 wRC+

- 22.7% LD%, 37.5% GB% 39.8% FB%

- 11.7% SOFT%, 47.2% MED%, 41.2% HARD%

 

Harper 2016-2018:

- .267/.391/.505 (.299 BABIP)

- 17% BB rate, 21% K rate

- .375 wOBA

- 132 wRC+

- 20% LD%, 40% GB%, 39.5% FB%

- 15% SOFT%, 47.9% MED%, 37% HARD%

 

He's still pretty damn close to that MVP player with underlying things and if the BABIP is normalized, he's hit the ball a little softer more often at the expense of hard hit balls and hit a few more on the ground vs line drives. He also BABIP'd his ass off in 2015 and probably has gotten a little unlucky since. His OPS and wOBA from 16-18' would have been top ~15 in the league this year and his wRC+ top ~20. I also want to say his batted ball profile was basically the same this year (or better in the spots you want to see) in 2018 as it was in 2015. He's also still horsefeathering 26.

Edited October 27, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I’m not arguing that Heyward will play up to his best years. I’m fearful that the last three years of Harper are more representative of his future than his MVP year. We’re 1,500 ABs from Harper MVP season he hasn’t been nearly that type of player since.

 

The last 3 years from Harper are indistinguishable from the last 3 years from Anthony Rizzo, that's exceptional to get from an outfielder. Of the hitters who have been better than Harper the last 3 years(less than 20), half are north of 30 and Harper is the youngest of the rest(which includes Bryant, Jose Ramirez, and Mookie). Signing Harper is adding an offensive wrecking ball, you can debate if he's merely going to be very good v. great by getting into the minutiae of his injuries or how his defense is evaluated, but those are rounding errors compared to the bulk of his value coming from being an elite hitter.

[17 Seconds]

i can't believe this is a discussion that's happening