"Time makes fools of us all" - The Kyle Schwarber Thread

[Banedon]

That article makes what Schwarber did in the World Series even more unbelievable than it felt at the time.

[minnesotacubsfan]

horsefeathering ChiliBall

[BigSlick]

Honestly it just sounds like Schwarber has been hilariously, tragically unlucky in timing

[Sammy Sofa]

This feels like it's pointing towards their overall struggles with things like runners on 3B with less than 2 outs that have been going on for years now. Sure, there's bad luck and baseball being baseball involved...but there's potentially some kind of failing with an organizational approach in these areas. They're just such bizarre, glaring (and, in some cases, ongoing) outliers. Edited September 27, 2018 by Sammy Sofa

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Honestly it just sounds like Schwarber has been hilariously, tragically unlucky in timing

I suppose that is possible, but when you get outliers like that, I think you have to start assuming that he has a different (and very bad) approach in situations with men on base and late in close games.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

-62 seems awfully generous, based on the eye test alone

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Honestly it just sounds like Schwarber has been hilariously, tragically unlucky in timing

I suppose that is possible, but when you get outliers like that, I think you have to start assuming that he has a different (and very bad) approach in situations with men on base and late in close games.

 

Just as likely(if not more so), things that are inherent to high leverage situations are disadvantageous to Schwarber. He's more likely to draw a lefty reliever, he's more likely to draw a power pitcher(which he's historically not done as well against), things like that.

[squally1313]

Honestly it just sounds like Schwarber has been hilariously, tragically unlucky in timing

I suppose that is possible, but when you get outliers like that, I think you have to start assuming that he has a different (and very bad) approach in situations with men on base and late in close games.

I really wanted to refute this, and still don't really believe it based on the thousands of data points we have across baseball that say there's no such thing as clutch, etc.

 

But um...then I looked at 2017 and 2015. Not good.

 

Career

Low Leverage: .824 OPS (120 wRC+) 655 PAs

Medium Leverage: .891 OPS (133 wRC+) 493 PAs

High Leverage: .434 OPS (-4 wRC+) 118 PAs

[UMFan83]

Did you notice who was 2nd on lowest wRC+ in high leverage situations over the past few years? 2016 Ryan Zimmerman. Remember the guy that was so bad at high leverage situations that the Cubs walked Harper in front of him like a zillion times in that one series against the Nats? Yeah Schwarber is worse than that.

[Sammy Sofa]

Honestly it just sounds like Schwarber has been hilariously, tragically unlucky in timing

I suppose that is possible, but when you get outliers like that, I think you have to start assuming that he has a different (and very bad) approach in situations with men on base and late in close games.

 

Just as likely(if not more so), things that are inherent to high leverage situations are disadvantageous to Schwarber. He's more likely to draw a lefty reliever, he's more likely to draw a power pitcher(which he's historically not done as well against), things like that.

 

One of the few dudes on this team that can dong is a strict platoon player who sucks in high pressure situations and whose value is arguably inflated by unexpected/likely unreliable defensive ability.

 

This team is some kind of insanity test.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I suppose that is possible, but when you get outliers like that, I think you have to start assuming that he has a different (and very bad) approach in situations with men on base and late in close games.

 

Just as likely(if not more so), things that are inherent to high leverage situations are disadvantageous to Schwarber. He's more likely to draw a lefty reliever, he's more likely to draw a power pitcher(which he's historically not done as well against), things like that.

 

One of the few dudes on this team that can dong is a strict platoon player who sucks in high pressure situations and whose value is arguably inflated by unexpected/likely unreliable defensive ability.

 

This team is some kind of insanity test.

 

 

Well yea, when you twist the logic around like that its scary as hell. On the other hand, the dude can hit baseballs onto the top of Wrigley fields scoreboard. Maybe the key here is to hit more homeruns, aka ditch the chili. Win by 7 runs and stay out of those high leverage situations that cost you the game.

 

+, im guessing we all will benefit in the reduced stress

[Sammy Sofa]

Well yea, when you twist the logic around like that

 

I didn't.

 

stay out of those high leverage situations

 

Oh, that's all they have to do?

[minnesotacubsfan]

Well yea, when you twist the logic around like that

 

I didn't.

 

stay out of those high leverage situations

 

Oh, that's all they have to do?

 

I'm joking with you about the twisted logic, but a 60 hr difference between 2017 and 2018 undoubtedly would keep you out of quite a few. Bryant makes up for the largest chunk of those, but not all, maybe not even 1/2.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK? Schwarber still sucked in these situations in 2015 and 2017, too. Yeah, it's great when the team isn't a collection of death by a thousand cuts like this year, but it's still an inherent flaw that can be exposed again if you've got guys who, pretty inexplicably, go to pieces in high leverage situations. Schwarber is a bat they're clearly relying on, and he's already pretty limited as to when it's ideal to play him or let him hit.

[BigSlick]

I don't know, 48 plate appearances means like, nothing to me. I'm sorry.

 

The fact his OPS went *up* in "Medium Leverage" in 2015 and 2017, and factoring in his 2015 and 2016 Playoff mastery tells me that...it's not a psychological thing.

 

There are lots of ways I think this team are a collection of gutless choking dogs but I can't really regard this stuff as more than a statistical curiosity.

[Sammy Sofa]

Kyle Schwarber actually is what countless terrible Cubs fans (redundant) thought Sosa was when it came to "meaningless" big hits.

 

Weird.

[Cubswin11]

Did you notice who was 2nd on lowest wRC+ in high leverage situations over the past few years? 2016 Ryan Zimmerman. Remember the guy that was so bad at high leverage situations that the Cubs walked Harper in front of him like a zillion times in that one series against the Nats? Yeah Schwarber is worse than that.

Didn’t they walk Harper that year because Harper was awesome and Zimmerman was having a terrible season? I don’t think it was because of the leverage, I think Zimmerman was borderline done in 2016 but then he came back and had a crazy year last year.

 

Edit:

 

Yeah he was worth -1.4 war that year and slashed .218/.272/.370

[UMFan83]

Did you notice who was 2nd on lowest wRC+ in high leverage situations over the past few years? 2016 Ryan Zimmerman. Remember the guy that was so bad at high leverage situations that the Cubs walked Harper in front of him like a zillion times in that one series against the Nats? Yeah Schwarber is worse than that.

Didn’t they walk Harper that year because Harper was awesome and Zimmerman was having a terrible season? I don’t think it was because of the leverage, I think Zimmerman was borderline done in 2016 but then he came back and had a crazy year last year.

 

Edit:

 

Yeah he was worth -1.4 war that year and slashed .218/.272/.370

 

Yeah, but they walked Harper in some big spots to get to Zimmerman and we laughed at him for failing miserably in all of those big spots.

[Cubswin11]

Did you notice who was 2nd on lowest wRC+ in high leverage situations over the past few years? 2016 Ryan Zimmerman. Remember the guy that was so bad at high leverage situations that the Cubs walked Harper in front of him like a zillion times in that one series against the Nats? Yeah Schwarber is worse than that.

Didn’t they walk Harper that year because Harper was awesome and Zimmerman was having a terrible season? I don’t think it was because of the leverage, I think Zimmerman was borderline done in 2016 but then he came back and had a crazy year last year.

 

Edit:

 

Yeah he was worth -1.4 war that year and slashed .218/.272/.370

 

Yeah, but they walked Harper in some big spots to get to Zimmerman and we laughed at him for failing miserably in all of those big spots.

Right, but I think it was more because Zimmerman was just a very bad baseball player that year vs them doing it because of leverage/clutch stats. Of course you pitch around and walk Harper when you can when he has a sub .600 OPS bum hitting behind him.

[UMFan83]

Didn’t they walk Harper that year because Harper was awesome and Zimmerman was having a terrible season? I don’t think it was because of the leverage, I think Zimmerman was borderline done in 2016 but then he came back and had a crazy year last year.

 

Edit:

 

Yeah he was worth -1.4 war that year and slashed .218/.272/.370

 

Yeah, but they walked Harper in some big spots to get to Zimmerman and we laughed at him for failing miserably in all of those big spots.

Right, but I think it was more because Zimmerman was just a very bad baseball player that year vs them doing it because of leverage/clutch stats. Of course you pitch around and walk Harper when you can when he has a sub .600 OPS bum hitting behind him.

 

I know but my whole point was, remember the guy we were all laughing at because we kept walking Harper and he couldnt do anything about it? Well that guy was better in high leverage situations than Schwarber is this year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Yeah, this doesn't mean much to me at all.

 

Granted, I do think there is something there. TT covered that. Schwarber might just need to be shielded from lefties in those situations. He might be more of a platoon guy, though on the strong side.

 

But... it's 45 ABs. This is the main reason I never really care about this horsefeathers. Looking at Ryan Zimmerman, for instance, he's also had seasons with high-leverage wRC+ of 191, 145, 134, 134, 130, 129.

 

Also, beyond it being bad, Schwarber's had a really weird season in high-leverage. His BB% is 17.9% and his K% is 33.9%. I don't know if that's because he's being more patient -- to a detriment -- or what. It could just be that he's had some weird PAs and is constantly finding himself in deep counts that he can't control as much. Regardless, over half the time the ball isn't being put in play. When it is, he has a .074 BABIP.

 

There's no doubt he's been really bad. And he most likely is going to continue to struggle some in those situations. But, it's 45 ABs. That's why it's always stupid when this horsefeathers is brought up.

 

I see why the article was written. It's interesting. It's interesting in the same way that it was when David Bote was like 5th in the NL in WPA after like 50 PA. But it doesn't mean much.

 

His numbers going up in medium leverage also show why this is kinda silly. The high-leverage stuff is split into bins and the parameters are a little arbitrary. Everything between 0.85 and 2 on the LI is "medium." 2 and higher is "high." So 1.95 and 2.05 aren't that different but 1.95 counts the same as .086 and not 2.05. Now factor in that it's only 45 AB's...

 

For instance, looking at all PA from the 7th inning on with the go-ahead or tying run on base or at the plate, Schwarber ranks 310 of 360 in wOBA of all hitters with 20 such PA:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=Go%5C.%5C.Ahead%5C.run%5C.at%5C.plate%7CGo%5C.%5C.Ahead%5C.run%5C.on%5C.base%7CTying%5C.run%5C.at%5C.plate%7CTying%5C.run%5C.on%5C.base%7C&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=7%7C8%7C9%7C10%7C&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=20#results

 

Now, the same thing, but with the tying run on deck, Schwarber ranks 30th:

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=Tying%5C.run%5C.on%5C.deck%7C&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=7%7C8%7C9%7C10%7C&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=woba&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=10#results

 

So is he really clutch when he can cut it to 1, but horribly un-clutch when he can tie it? Or is it just some SSS noise?

[Sammy Sofa]

He is too patient, IMO. He sees the ball really well, but seemingly has too much faith in the ump, if that makes sense. He lets a ton of close to borderline pitches go that he rightly sees as balls, but he doesn't seem to swing defensively nearly as much as you see a lot of guys who see the ball well do.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

He is too patient, IMO. He sees the ball really well, but seemingly has too much faith in the ump, if that makes sense. He lets a ton of close to borderline pitches go that he rightly sees as balls, but he doesn't seem to swing defensively nearly as much as you see a lot of guys who see the ball well do.

 

I agree.

 

I've looked into the "Schwarber keeps getting screwed" thing, and I don't think that's really happening.

 

Looking at Baseball Savant, of 216 batters that have seen 1,500 pitches, Schwarber has had the 33rd highest % of pitches go for called strikes on pitches outside the zone. Quite high, but it's not like he is lapping the league or anything.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=called%5C.%5C.strike%7C&hfZ=11%7C12%7C13%7C14%7C&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=1500&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

In 2-strike counts, he ranks 3rd. This could be because he keeps getting screwed in the worst spots, or maybe it has something to do with him being more patient than he should with 2 strikes.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfBBT=&hfPR=called%5C.%5C.strike%7C&hfZ=11%7C12%7C13%7C14%7C&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfGT=R%7C&hfC=2strikes%7C&hfSea=2018%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfPull=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=1500&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=pitch_percent&player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0#results

 

Regardless, it's definitely hurt him this year. But we should expect that. Looking at those same 216 players, Schwarber ranks 5th in % of pitches that are on the "edges" -- in and out of the zone. A lot of this depends on how you define the zone. But pitchers don't want to serve him meatballs and they know he won't chase, so they nibble. And he doesn't bite. He's going to have a ton of PAs that are left up to umpires (who suck).

 

He might just need to tweak his approach with 2 strikes, or with guys on base, or late in games.

[Cubswin11]

He is too patient, IMO. He sees the ball really well, but seemingly has too much faith in the ump, if that makes sense. He lets a ton of close to borderline pitches go that he rightly sees as balls, but he doesn't seem to swing defensively nearly as much as you see a lot of guys who see the ball well do.

On top of this he also seems to look like he’s sitting on a specific pitch/location too often, especially when he’s down in the count instead of being reactive to whatever is thrown in terms of pitch type and location. I’m fine with sitting on a pitch/location in an advantageous count but he seems to do it a lot when he needs to be in more protect/contact mode.

Edited September 28, 2018 by Cubswin11

[Tim]

So what we're saying is that if MLB gets off their asses and adopts robot umps, he's babe ruth.