Week 1 Bears (0-0) @ Texans (0-0) Noon, FOX/780

[jersey cubs fan]

Now for my daily reminder that the Bears traded up to not draft Tunsil.

but they got a backup linebacker

[Guest]

Now for my daily reminder that the Bears traded up to not draft Tunsil.

but they got a backup linebacker

 

With McPhee going down and Tunsil playing guard, I'm good with it for now.

[David]

I'm also more inclined to believe that Miller has had [expletive] luck in a sport that leads to lots of injures than that he has a predisposition to being injured. We'll see. Obviously a concussion is bad news.

Well injuries aren't BABIP. You don't typically suffer a lot early in your career and then get all super healthy later on. It's not about a predisposition to get injured but rather a collection of injuries that take a toll.

 

True, but he managed to play 15 games last year, which to me would at least somewhat suggest that he might be OK on that end.

 

You could also argue that he's got less wear and tear on him as a result of the lost time. I'm not sure exactly what his injuries have been, as most things I can find are pretty vague (i.e. "missed time with a foot injury"). I did see an Achilles one, which is never good. So maybe throw the reduced wear and tear argument out the window, lol.

[David]

We're going to have Sitton and Long on the interior, and Langford is better than most people think he is. Run game will be just fine.

 

Yeah, maybe I will have to eat crow on this, but I think the Forte loss is being hugely overstated by many. He wasn't even THAT special of a running back. Great in the passing game, as everyone knows. And I'm not just saying this now...I wasn't crazy about signing him when he was holding out for the contract too. Just block and hand other guys the ball.

 

I consider Bennett more of a loss, not that I'll miss him off the field.

[WrigleyField 22]

Hes probably better than whats replacing him still, but they have upside at least. And if Dowell is at all decent hell use multi backs and change of pace to his advantage.

[jersey cubs fan]

We're going to have Sitton and Long on the interior, and Langford is better than most people think he is. Run game will be just fine.

 

Yeah, maybe I will have to eat crow on this, but I think the Forte loss is being hugely overstated by many. He wasn't even THAT special of a running back. Great in the passing game, as everyone knows. And I'm not just saying this now...I wasn't crazy about signing him when he was holding out for the contract too. Just block and hand other guys the ball.

 

I consider Bennett more of a loss, not that I'll miss him off the field.

I always appreciated Forte but was never enamored. My point was he was a durable, proven productive RB, and even when they had that they weren't a good offense. Now they don't have that, among other things.

 

I feel like the only way this team squeaks out an 8+ win season is if the defense makes a huge leap and then they play a special kind of keep away ball with the offense. For a while it looked like that was the goal this offseason, signing 7 linebackers and all that. But at the end of the summer those additions look more like minor improvements to me (inside linebackers don't win football games). The pass rush remains in doubt. The secondary remains in doubt. The first round draft pick is a big question. It doesn't look to me to be a talented enough defense to make the leap I was hoping for to make the team a boring defensive led contender.

[WrigleyField 22]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

[jersey cubs fan]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

I don't see how that is true.

 

The major downfall to any win expectancy is injury to key players. There is no corollary to that on the upside. If 8-8 is a baseline, then some things working out better than expected may take them to 10-6 but things working out worse than expected plus a Cutler injury and you can rack up a lot of losses in a hurry.

[JonJayCutler]

The problem with Forte is that he can't dong anymore. No runs longer than 32 yards since 2013.

[jersey cubs fan]

The problem with Forte is that he can't dong anymore. No runs longer than 32 yards since 2013.

the problem with forte was he could never dong.

 

he was never a big play impact RB that could dominate a game.

 

he was a good reliable and productive back for a relatively long time, but never a dongsman.

[JonJayCutler]

The problem with Forte is that he can't dong anymore. No runs longer than 32 yards since 2013.

the problem with forte was he could never dong.

 

he was never a big play impact RB that could dominate a game.

 

he was a good reliable and productive back for a relatively long time, but never a dongsman.

 

Never a dongsman but he Szczur'ed a few in his day. He's just Kawasaki now.

[David]

We're going to have Sitton and Long on the interior, and Langford is better than most people think he is. Run game will be just fine.

 

Yeah, maybe I will have to eat crow on this, but I think the Forte loss is being hugely overstated by many. He wasn't even THAT special of a running back. Great in the passing game, as everyone knows. And I'm not just saying this now...I wasn't crazy about signing him when he was holding out for the contract too. Just block and hand other guys the ball.

 

I consider Bennett more of a loss, not that I'll miss him off the field.

I always appreciated Forte but was never enamored. My point was he was a durable, proven productive RB, and even when they had that they weren't a good offense. Now they don't have that, among other things.

 

I feel like the only way this team squeaks out an 8+ win season is if the defense makes a huge leap and then they play a special kind of keep away ball with the offense. For a while it looked like that was the goal this offseason, signing 7 linebackers and all that. But at the end of the summer those additions look more like minor improvements to me (inside linebackers don't win football games). The pass rush remains in doubt. The secondary remains in doubt. The first round draft pick is a big question. It doesn't look to me to be a talented enough defense to make the leap I was hoping for to make the team a boring defensive led contender.

 

Yeah, I didn't mean to call you out on the Forte thing, but moreso the general sentiment that I keep hearing Forte talked about as a huge loss on offense whose massive production they can never replace.

[David]

The problem with Forte is that he can't dong anymore. No runs longer than 32 yards since 2013.

 

And with him, if there are no dongs, there are no TDs.

[Guest]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

I don't see how that is true.

 

The major downfall to any win expectancy is injury to key players. There is no corollary to that on the upside. If 8-8 is a baseline, then some things working out better than expected may take them to 10-6 but things working out worse than expected plus a Cutler injury and you can rack up a lot of losses in a hurry.

 

a Cutler injury basically punted away two games last year. Even with those games, the Bears could have gotten into it if a few small things had gone their way. The first Lions game was crucial, and that game got pissed away late, but the Bears should have been able to hold on. The Vikings game the next week would have put them at 4-3, but weird things happened, of course, and the Bears lost late.

 

Then you beat the Chargers and Rams, as normal, and you go into the Broncos game at 6-3 with some momentum. Let's just say they lose to the Broncos, but pull it out against the Niners, as that was laughably winnable ( I have no idea how they lost that one), too. Oh yeah, they win the game that they choked away to the Redskins, and now they're 9-4 and they lose to the Vikings, putting them at 9-5, now, lets' say they split the last two and they win 10 games after starting 0-3.

 

The Bears competed at a high level and were the unluckiest team in the league last year. They turn some of those close losses into wins and they're a playoff team.

[jersey cubs fan]

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[bukie]

An argument could be made that the Packers,Vikings and Lions are the best 3 teams on the schedule this season.

[jersey cubs fan]

An argument could be made that the Packers,Vikings and Lions are the best 3 teams on the schedule this season.

an equally persuasive argument can be made that the Bears will only be the better team in three games this year. Philly, Titans and 49ers.

[UMFan83]

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Maybe drafting injured guys with your first round pick is NOT the new market inefficency.

[WrigleyField 22]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

I don't see how that is true.

 

The major downfall to any win expectancy is injury to key players. There is no corollary to that on the upside. If 8-8 is a baseline, then some things working out better than expected may take them to 10-6 but things working out worse than expected plus a Cutler injury and you can rack up a lot of losses in a hurry.

Well the injury this being true of every team, I guess staying healthy is the corollary upside of every team to that point.

 

The upside for the Bears is probably just coaching + schedule + lucky bounces. Talent + unlucky ball bounces being the other end. Mostly its just the nature of football and how few games there are that the just random luck aspect meaning most teams should have an equal variance to each side of their projection.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

I don't see how that is true.

 

The major downfall to any win expectancy is injury to key players. There is no corollary to that on the upside. If 8-8 is a baseline, then some things working out better than expected may take them to 10-6 but things working out worse than expected plus a Cutler injury and you can rack up a lot of losses in a hurry.

 

The upside is when you stay healthy and everyone else doesn't. If you've got 20 of your best 22 and the Vikings have 13, things improve considerably.

[jersey cubs fan]

Were probably a 8-8 baseline team, with probably an equal shot to be 5-11 as 11-5. Thats either exciting or terrifying.

I don't see how that is true.

 

The major downfall to any win expectancy is injury to key players. There is no corollary to that on the upside. If 8-8 is a baseline, then some things working out better than expected may take them to 10-6 but things working out worse than expected plus a Cutler injury and you can rack up a lot of losses in a hurry.

 

The upside is when you stay healthy and everyone else doesn't. If you've got 20 of your best 22 and the Vikings have 13, things improve considerably.

that is one team, not everybody. It's not an equal corollary.

[Sosa21MVP]

I picked the Bears to win this week in my confidence pool. No, I did not invest many confidence points in them.

[David]

lol dj moore is apparently in college or something and wearing his own jersey to class

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[David]

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*sigh*

[jersey cubs fan]

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*sigh*

next year they will have 3 first round draft picks

 

 

unstoppable