Who comes back next year?

[davell]

I'm not prorating anything with this. Straight salary numbers, with bonuses not included.

 

C Montero-14, Contreras- Min

1B Rizzo-7

2B Zobrist-16, Seal Boy-Min

SS Russell- Min, Baez-Min

3B Bryant-Min

LF Soler-3, Schwarber-Min

CF Almora-Min, Scissors-Min

RF Heyward-21.5

 

Total-61.5 + Min salaries

 

Free Agents- C Gramps, LF Coghlan

 

Mutual Option- CF Fowler-9

 

In no way, shape, or form do I expect Dex to opt in, so he's basically a FA himself. Heyward moves up 6.5 from 2016, Zobrist moves up 6, and Rizzo moves up 2. So that's 14.5 more than 2016. Ross was 2.5 and Dex was 8. In other words, our salary from hitting looks to be 4.5 mill more than 2016, not including Dex, Ross, or Coghlan(midseason addition that I'm not accounting for as we'll do that each year)

 

Keeping Dex could be costly. I could see us taking the comp pick and letting him walk. Almora in CF won't be any worse hitting than 2016 Heyward, who hopefully morphs back into pre-2016 Heyward. A full season of Schwarber and Contreras behind the plate, the offense conceivably improves next year(especially if other kids continue improvement), even if we stand pat and don't even keep Dex.

 

I figure its 50/50 on Dex and if we let him walk, I'm sure we'll bring in some sort of veteran that can conceivably not be awful, if Almora falters too much.

 

Pitching

 

Lester-20

Lackey-12.5

Hendricks-Min

 

All 3 of these run the same as 2016.

 

Arrieta-last arb (16?)

 

Guess on the number there obviously. But its up from 10.7 in 2016.

 

Club Option

 

Hammel-12, versus a 2 mill buyout.

 

This ones interesting to me. He'd be making 3 mill more and he's realistically worth it. But with the lack of pitching in FA, the extremely small likelihood we head into 2017 with the same 5 as in 2016....My honest guess is we pick up the option and trade him, allowing for a spot opening.

 

At any rate, it puts our rotation up 8.3 mill, assuming we at least pick up the option, whether we keep him or not.

 

Rotation Salary-60.5+ Min(includes Hammel)

 

Free Agents- None

 

Bullpen

 

Montgomery-Min

Edwards-Min

 

Arb guys

Rondon(7.5 estimate) up from 1st year of 4.2

Strop(6 estimate) up from 4.4

Grimm(1.375 estimate) up from 1.275

 

Free Agents- Chapman,Cahill, Richard, Wood, Nathan, Smith, Concepción(release likely)Edwin Jackson

 

Cahill, Wood, Richard, Concepción, and Jackson save us 25.620 off the payroll. Rondon, Strop, and Grimm will make about 5 mill more than this season.

 

Weird Option- Nathan at 1.5 next year

 

Pen Salary-16.875 + Min

 

All in all, our salary looks to be 6 mill under our teams salary ENTERING 2016, with this as the basic roster, included in that.....

 

136.875 Total + Min guys

 

C Montero-14, Contreras

1B Rizzo-7

2B Zobrist-16, Seal Boy-Min

SS Russell- Min, Baez-Min

3B Bryant-Min

LF Schwarber-Min

CF Almora-Min, Szczur-Min

RF Heyward-21.5, Soler-3

 

SP

Lester-20

Arrieta-16

Lackey-12.5

Hammel-12

Hendricks-Min

 

Pen

Rondon-7.5

Strop-6

Grimm-1.375

Montgomery-Min

Edwards-Min

Patton-Min(to fill out roster)

Not even a realistic option for 12th pitcher.

 

 

 

 

No idea how much of an increase to expect, they mentioned numerous times as to doing 2 years of FA shopping last off season. Still, we're in contention, making tons at the gate, and likely to see another ticket increase, on top of some extra dollars from present TV/Radio/Signage etc.....

 

We won't go nuts, due to escalating costs of our own kids. Not to mention how awful the FA class looks to be.....

 

So, the questions are our major needs. It looks to be CF, SP, and Pen help. Hammel provides financial flexibility for us, if wanted.

 

My guess, after doing this......

 

Let Dex walk. Sign a vet who's more of a 4th OFer type

Trade Soler + minor leaguers for the best cost controlled SP we can get

Sign a FA SP depth type or 2. One year deal guys. Trade Hammel for pen help.

Spend decent amount of cash on pen, trying to keep Rondon pitching the 8th.

 

Apologies for making this so long, I kind of just wanted to see how good of shape we were in, heading into next year. Its confirmed, we're looking really horsefeathering good.

[CubinNY]

Almora is the opening day CFer.

[Cubswin11]

I think everyone is back next year except Ross (obviously) and Fowler. Only additions I could see are we sign/trade for a 4th/5th OF, pick up Hammel's option and maybe trade him and prospects to get a young controlled guy and then maybe 1-2 bullpen arms added through the rule 5, veteran scrap heap.

 

But I see the IF being Bryant, Russell, Zobrist, Rizzo, Javy, LaStella, Contreras, Montero, OF being Schwarber, Almora, Heyward, Soler, FA/Trade.

 

Rotation being Arrieta, Lester, Hendricks, Lackey, Hammel/trade

 

Bullpen Rondon, Strop, Montgomery, Wood, Grimm, Edwards, FA/Rule 5 filler

[CyHawk_Cub]

I really don't want Almora to be the everyday CF'er, so I'd love to see Dex brought back. I just don't think that's what will happen. Really nice breakdown by OP, much appreciated.

[Cubswin11]

It's dumb because it's probably not going to happen but my biggest reason for not wanting to bring Fowler back long term is so there's a spot for Harper in 2 years.

[Cubswin11]

I'd not a big fan of Almora starting everday either. I'd rather dangle him in a trade for some pitching (possibly with Soler), try to lure Carlos Gomez on a one year if not offered the QO, and shop around for a buy low guy young guy like Dalton Pompey or someome I haven't thought of.

 

Take the pick on Fowler, pick up the option on Hammel and probably shop him around, shop among the non-QO'd FAs, and make a trade for a young SP, and possibly try to get a young OF in the same deal (cough*Stanton and Fernandez*cough) for that SP or make a separate deal.

Gomez on a 1 year "prove it" deal intrigues me. Also on board with I don't want Almora as the everyday guy either

[Gilby]

If Fowler leaves, it'd probably be Javy who gets upgraded to "everyday" status, though Almora would get a lot of ABs.

[davell]

Javy can stay in his same role and if he continues to progress, you find him even more time. I feel pretty confident ONE of Dex or Almora is our Opening Day CF next year. Gomez is intriguing as a stop gap, but I'd bet we fill it with one of our own.

 

Its interesting that Happ is playing CF tonight. I'd prefer to trade Almora over him, if Happ can play CF regularly. But that would require holding on to Almora until Happ is ready and letting Dex go. Because I can't see Dex taking anything short of 3 years and likely able to get 4 on the open market.

[JennieGarthAlgar]

I'm not thrilled with Almora as our everyday CF but I'm not ready to give up on him either. I'd prefer to trade Szcuzr and keep Almora in his role. With Almora in CF and Heyward in RF on certain days we could probably play Schwarber out there right now and they'd be a double plus OF.

[wvcbxl]

We'll all be back here next year, except for the odd banning. :wink:

 

As for the Cubs, I'm gonna trust Theo.

[Bull]

We'll all be back here next year, except for the odd banning. :wink:

 

As for the Cubs, I'm gonna trust Theo.

I was going to say something about da bum coming back next year, but I don't know enough about that situation hold a view.

[soccer10k]

Mutual Option- CF Fowler-9

 

In no way, shape, or form do I expect Dex to opt in, so he's basically a FA himself. Heyward moves up 6.5 from 2016, Zobrist moves up 6, and Rizzo moves up 2. So that's 14.5 more than 2016. Ross was 2.5 and Dex was 8. In other words, our salary from hitting looks to be 4.5 mill more than 2016, not including Dex, Ross, or Coghlan(midseason addition that I'm not accounting for as we'll do that each year)

 

This was talked about somewhere a couple weeks ago, but wouldn't Dex be only $5M next year? It's a mutual $9M option with a $5M buyout. So for that $9M to happen, both sides would have to opt in, right (i.e. the most likely scenario of Cubs picking it up and Dex declining it)?

 

Also, and I don't think this was talked about, do the Cubs have to decline the option to be able to give him the QO or can they pick it up and when he declines the option, then give him the QO?

[davell]

Eh, I don't know how to account for the opt in. But it won't happen, so it doesn't matter anyway. There's a chance he's got a clause that keeps the Cubs from offering him the QO this time. Its not been mentioned, but I'm pretty sure there's been a few of those in contracts recently and it'd make since for Dex.