Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-3-16

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Box Scores:

 

Iowa won 7-5 Box Score

 

2B A. Alcántara 2/4, R, 2B (9), BI, BB, K

C W. Contreras 1/4, 2 R, HR (9), 3 RBI, BB, K

1B D. Vogelbach 2/4, 2B (11)

RF A. Almora 2/3

SS M. Kawasaki 1/3, 2 R, BB, E (3, fielding)

SP R. Zastryzny 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 4-6 GO-FO, 85-51 pitches-strikes

RP D. Beeler 2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 6-0 GO-FO

 

Tennessee lost 2-1 Box Score

 

CF J. Hannemann 1/4, R, 2B (10), 2 K

SS C. Young 0/4

LF M. Zagunis 1/4, 2B (13), K

3B J. Candelario 0/4, 3 K

RF B. McKinney 1/4, 2 K

1B-C V. Caratini 0/3, BB

DH S. Bruno 1/2, BB

SP T. Skulina 4 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 6 BB, 3 K, 2-3 GO-FO, 77-38 pitches-strikes

RP S. Peralta 3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 2-3 G-FO

RP D. Garner 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R< 0 BB, 3 K, 0-0 GO-FO

RP C. Black 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 0 K, 0-2 GO-FO

 

Myrtle Beach lost 11-10 Box Score

 

CF R. Crawford 1/5, CS (5)

SS G. Torres 3/4, 3 R, 3 2B (13), RBI, BB

2B I. Happ 1/5, RBI, SB (8)

1B Y. Balaguert 1/3, 3, R, 2 BB, K

3B J. Vosler 3/5, 2 R, 2 2B (14), 3 RBI

SP J. Martinez 4.2 IP, 8 H, 7 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 1 WP, 5-1 GO-FO, 103-68 pitches-strikes

RP D. Torrez 2 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 2-2 GO-FO

 

South Bend lost 2-1 Box Score

 

3B A. Ely 0/3. E (10, throw)

DH PJ Higgins 1/3, BB

CF D. Dewees 1/4, R, 2B (10), K

LF E. Jimenez 0/4, K, E (2, missed catch)

C I. Rice 1/3, RBI, BB

2B C. Sepulveda 1/3, HBP, E (4, throw)

RF E. Martinez 0/3, BB

1B T. Alamo 1/4

SP P. Morrison 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER< 0 BB, 4 K, 12-2 GO-FO, 77-54 pitches-strikes

[Aaron_Kennelly]

3-3 with 3 doubles for Gleyber

 

Yay! I welcome the surge in power this year.

[CyHawk_Cub]

Willson Contreras w/ a 3R HR

[davell]

I think this is what Theo meant by saying we need a healthy organization. Because, in my opinion, we're one healthy, heaping horsefeathers.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Oh my god, I love Contreras.

[davell]

What's Zastryzny's velo now? Is he still sitting low 90's? If so, I'm definitely interested to see what happens if hes airing it out for an inning.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I really love how AA and AAA Contreras stacks with the group of young players currently on the ML roster. It's nice to believe this org finally has standards.

 

Not wholly positive but compare Contreras', Bryant's, Russell's, Soler's, Baez's, Schwarber's, and Almora's AA and AAA lines. If you're looking to hand Almora CF uncontested after that, please punch yourself in the balls.

 

Who has said this? You are also comparing him to some of the upper echelon young talent in MLB. Nobody thinks he's that.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I really love how AA and AAA Contreras stacks with the group of young players currently on the ML roster. It's nice to believe this org finally has standards.

 

Not wholly positive but compare Contreras', Bryant's, Russell's, Soler's, Baez's, Schwarber's, and Almora's AA and AAA lines. If you're looking to hand Almora CF uncontested after that, please punch yourself in the balls.

 

Who has said this? You are also comparing him to some of the upper echelon young talent in MLB. Nobody thinks he's that.

 

It's more of a BN thing than over here, and I'm comparing him to guys who just came out of the Cubs' minor league system. No mention of their ML performance necessary.

 

I'm not even talking about their MLB performance. I am saying that you are comparing him to guys scouts have raved about forever, guys that were ranked in the top-10, or top-5, or number 1 overall as prospects. Literally nobody here thinks he is on that level.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

It's more of a BN thing than over here, and I'm comparing him to guys who just came out of the Cubs' minor league system. No mention of their ML performance necessary.

 

I'm not even talking about their MLB performance. I am saying that you are comparing him to guys scouts have raved about forever, guys that were ranked in the top-10, or top-5, or number 1 overall as prospects. Literally nobody here thinks he is on that level.

 

Scouts like Almora more than his minor league track record for hitting does, you brought up their ML performance without prompt (as if minor league performance is incidental?), so I am not sure what your point is? That the other guys are better? That is the exact same point I am making.

 

 

Umm... yes. That is exactly the point I am making. I don't know why you need to make that point. Everyone here knows that.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I really love how AA and AAA Contreras stacks with the group of young players currently on the ML roster. It's nice to believe this org finally has standards.

 

Not wholly positive but compare Contreras', Bryant's, Russell's, Soler's, Baez's, Schwarber's, and Almora's AA and AAA lines. If you're looking to hand Almora CF uncontested after that, please punch yourself in the balls.

 

Who has said this? You are also comparing him to some of the upper echelon young talent in MLB. Nobody thinks he's that.

 

It's more of a BN thing than over here, and I'm comparing him to guys who just came out of the Cubs' minor league system. No mention of their ML performance necessary.

 

I was going to basically respond that the "give Almora the CF job in '17" b.s. is a bleacher nation phenomenon, from what I've seen. maybe also at PSD, but I'd rather spend time watching cute kitten videos than wasting time among the general idiocy over there. BN posters also like to equate Hendricks to Greg Maddux, so it's safe to say smug homerism is alive & well over there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You said "If you're looking to hand Almora CF uncontested after that, please punch yourself in the balls." That goes a wee bit past parsing word choices, especially since there has been pretty much zero chatter about handing Almora CF uncontested here. Here being NSB, the website where you made the comment.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Well then no one has to punch themselves in the balls. Weird that such an uncontroversial opinion can become controversial just based on the language not being soft enough, which is more or less what just went down.

 

It had nothing to do with the language not being soft enough. It had to do with you telling people to compare Almora's numbers with Kris Bryant's because they aren't as good. Ya don't say!? Maybe we should compare Mark Zagunis to Kris Bryant next.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It's very, very easy to make a point without saying that a faceless opposing argument is dumb.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

 

Well then no one has to punch themselves in the balls. Weird that such an uncontroversial opinion can become controversial just based on the language not being soft enough, which is more or less what just went down.

 

It had nothing to do with the language not being soft enough. It had to do with you telling people to compare Almora's numbers with Kris Bryant's because they aren't as good. Ya don't say!? Maybe we should compare Mark Zagunis to Kris Bryant next.

 

Well that's just being purposefully obtuse to get angry for the sake of getting angry. I have never seen anyone looking for the Cubs to give Zagunus a 2017 starting job, which HAS been said about Almora. There were, IIRC, 5 other guys - a couple that weren't as good as Kris Bryant either. Neither Soler or Contreras, nearly 1/3 of that list, have made a major publication's top 10 or even IIRC a top 20 yet.

 

I don't see how you think I am coming off angry when you are the one telling people to punch themselves in the nuts.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

IMO, that's better. If it were me saying the same thing I'd go with something like* "the huge wave of prospects we've had that have become productive MLB starters right away gives us a convenient baseline to compare others to. Contreras looks like a starter in that light, but even with his improvement Almora still needs to improve/a platoon partner."

 

*I write that out not to be condescending, but to take you at your word, and also because I spend all day writing and tone policing emails so it's an occupational hobby

[Aaron_Kennelly]

It's very, very easy to make a point without saying that a faceless opposing argument is dumb.

 

How is this one....I want to have a more likeable image as a poster and mincing words is something I have to improve on:

 

Compare the AA and AAA lines of the guys given starter and part time roles on the 2015 and 2016 Cubs to what current AAA hopefuls Almora and Contreras are doing and have done. Almora does not meet the standards those guys have set, if we can assume there are standards now.

 

1-10, improved or not so much? I feel like something is missing.

 

Matt Szczur has a part-time role for a 38-15 team, and he's actually done a good job in that role. There can definitely be a role for Albert Almora. Also, Javier Baez had a 108 wRC+ in his first go-around at AAA. Almora is at 106 this year. And Almora's value also comes largely from his defense, at a position where we lack options long-term.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now I want Almora to get the 2017 CF job handed to him just to spite the last page of posts.

 

He is going to be our Jeter.

[David]

The angle people should be coming with in regards to Almora is that he's young enough and makes enough contact to BABIP his way to a passable offensive season or two.

 

i think that is exactly what people are doing when kevin pillar is talked about as one of his better potential outcomes on this board

[Thrilho]

I really love how AA and AAA Contreras stacks with the group of young players currently on the ML roster. It's nice to believe this org finally has standards and that they can be met without spending $30 million on an amateur or picking in the top 5 or 10.

 

Not wholly positive but compare Contreras', Bryant's, Russell's, Soler's, Baez's, Schwarber's, and Almora's AA and AAA lines. If you're looking to hand Almora CF uncontested after that, please punch yourself in the balls.

 

So compare Almora to a third baseman MVP candidate, a corner outfielder who hit 22 home runs in the majors last year, a short stop who most feel has some level of HOF potential, another short stop who had a 37 home run season but also had horrific strikeout problems that don't show up in his slash line, a catcher who is 15th in wOBA among qualified MiLB players, and Jorge Soler, left field statue extraordinaire.

 

These are pretty high standards in vacuum, regardless of position. For a center fielder in AAA who just turned 22 they're probably just the wrong comps. Here are some guys from around the MLB today who look similar to what I'd hope for out of Almora. Not saying he'd be as good as these guys, but similar directionally as good defense but not elite offensive CFs. I'm also throwing in Michael Taylor as a downside comparison. There are obviously hundreds of other guys with similar profiles to Almora who were just trash heaped for various reasons, but I threw him in because he's got a prettier slash line than Almora but sucks in MLB because of a 30% K rate.

 

2015 MLB stats

Kevin Kiermaier: 5.5 fWAR 32.0 Def .309 wOBA

Kevin Pillar: 4.3 fWAR 16.6 Def .310 wOBA

Odubel Herrera: 3.9 fWAR 11.7 Def .333 wOBA

Michael Taylor: 1.0 fWAR 12.3 Def .274 wOBA

 

Milb stats from the last two full years each player was in the minors. All AA-AAA.

Kevin Kiermaier: .293/.359/.435 .360 wOBA .141 ISO 8.2%BB 15.2%K (age 24)

Kevin Pillar: .314/.356/.482 .374 wOBA .168 ISO 5.3%BB 12.1%K (age 25)

Odubel Herrera: .291/.350/.371 .332 wOBA .080 ISO 8.1%BB 16.5%K (age 23)

Michael Taylor: .279/.359/.465 .372 wOBA .186 ISO 10.3%BB 25.7%K (age 23)

 

Almora (15-16): .286/.328/.417 .338 wOBA .131 ISO 5.7%BB 11.5%K (age 22)

Almora (2016): .315/.330/.450 .343 wOBA .135 ISO 2.9%BB 13.8%K (age 22)

 

So Almora has less power and walk rate than most of these guys. His wOBA for the last two years is .338, relative to .360-.370 out of three of them. Walk rate is lower than everyone (unless you lump in 2015 and compare him with Pillar), but also a lower K rate than everyone and this year his BA is pretty high comparatively, which would make sense given the low Ks.

 

So the two major questions to me would be where do you project Almora from here offensively, and how much do you need out of his offense? Pillar was able to get 4.3 fWAR out of a .310 wOBA season. Is Almora as good as Pillar defensively? We don't have the defensive stats to say yet, but it seems possible. I'd think Almora has a decent shot of being a .310-.320 wOBA type player. We could go around about which part of his slash line would get the pickup, but I think it could come from walks or power. Even if he falls short of that though, it looks like there's a lot of room miss if you're good in center.

 

Then I'd look at fit on the team, both offensively and defensively. If you've got Bryant playing left you can probably make just about any center fielder work. But if you want to get Schwarber back in I'd think you'd almost need an elite center fielder to keep the stress off him and his defense as he comes back. Or if Soler starts beasting and they ship out Schwarber to keep Soler, I'd think an elite defensive center fielder would be great too. Maybe they get their third main outfielder from outside the organization, but with the current makeup of the team it seems like Almora would help with the flexibility.

 

Then in the lineup they could use another high contact guy. Russell is showing now that you don't need to have elite slash line output to have a big impact by driving in runs. Dropping another guy in at the end of the order to drive in all these on base monsters with singles and doubles wouldn't be the worst way to construct a lineup.

 

Of course, if they decide to fleece the Dbacks for Pollock or something that would be great, but the game isn't flooded with young positive defensive value above average offensive center fielders. Looking down the 2015 list of guys with a 2.0 fWAR (17) and positive defensive value (and who I didn't list above are) Trout, Pollock, Cain, Cutch, Betts, Jones, Fowler, and Austin Jackson. Most of those guys that are young enough to want are pretty well untouchable or they're Cain at 30 with a huge deal coming after 2017.

 

You could go get another minor league center fielder, but I'm not well versed enough on the minors across MLB to say who that guy would be. Or you could go get another corner outfielder and I'm sure Heyward would be great in center. But again, I'm not sure who that guy would be, and I wouldn't want to spend much on another corner outfield spot when that guy would just be keeping it warm for Harper. Almora is in the system, so absent other trade ideas I'm pretty happy with him as an option for later this year and next at least.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

If the best the Cubs can do with their #6 overall pick and top 100 prospect is get a Matt Szczur out of him, they done goofed. There are many, many guys who can be Matt Szczur for a roster out there, including Matt Szczur. Russell and Baez get alot of their value from defense too, they still got onto the roster because they hit.

 

Well, that ship has already sailed. He's not on their level. We very well may have goofed. But there's nothing we can do about that now. He is what he is. That doesn't mean we can't still get something out of him.

[David]

i have a hard time seeing any draft pick who makes it to the big leagues with any semblance of a significant role as a failure, but maybe that's just the bias of having witnessed our track record with them over the years.

[Thrilho]

If the best the Cubs can do with their #6 overall pick and top 100 prospect is get a Matt Szczur out of him, they done goofed. There are many, many guys who can be Matt Szczur for a roster out there, including Matt Szczur. Russell and Baez get alot of their value from defense too, they still got onto the roster because they hit.

 

For comparison with my post above, here was Szczur's line for his first go round at AA and AAA in 2013-2014, where he finished up at the age of 25.

 

Matt Szczur: .273/.335/.344 .315 wOBA .071 ISO 7.8%BB/15.0%K

 

You figure Szczur is going to come back to earth from his .405 wOBA, but when he does what level are you expecting out of him? If you're expecting a big collapse back to 2015 MLB Szczur of the .222/.278/.333 slash line then I'd say Almora probably has more pedigree than to drop back that far. If you're saying 2016 Szczur with good defense in center then hurray!

 

But the other thing about Szczur and the concept of "guys like Szczur" is that we don't even know how great he is defensively. So far he's played only 90 of his 377 MLB innings in center, and he's got a -5.5 UZR/150 in those 377 innings. This year he's at a 35.8, last year was -22.6, so.... I guess the data is still evening out. But seems fair to say he might not be Almora in center.

 

I'd just want to know which version of Szczur is the guy you think Almora is likely to be and which players who bring greater value (considering defense) you'd prefer to have play for the Cubs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i have a hard time seeing any draft pick who makes it to the big leagues with any semblance of a significant role as a failure, but maybe that's just the bias of having witnessed our track record with them over the years.

 

Matt Szczuzr's 0.5 fWAR this year is better than the career total for 29 of the 51 players drafted at No. 6 overall.

[CubsWin]

"Age 23-24 are peak power, speed, and defense seasons for a typical player..."

 

Is this true? I've never heard that anywhere. The following is from a Boston Globe article from 2015.

 

Since 1984, the greatest likelihood of finding a player worth 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on offense, as defined by Baseball-Reference.com, peaks quite clearly between the ages of 26 and 28. Each of those three “seasons” accounts for roughly 10 percent of all the players who achieved 2.0 WAR of offense from 1984-2014. The ages 25-30 are bunched closely enough to that peak plateau to suggest a period in which players are most likely to perform at something close to the height of their abilities — the so-called prime years.

Has there been a new study showing such drastically different results?

[David]

"Age 23-24 are peak power, speed, and defense seasons for a typical player..."

 

Is this true? I've never heard that anywhere. The following is from a Boston Globe article from 2015.

 

Since 1984, the greatest likelihood of finding a player worth 2.0 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on offense, as defined by Baseball-Reference.com, peaks quite clearly between the ages of 26 and 28. Each of those three “seasons” accounts for roughly 10 percent of all the players who achieved 2.0 WAR of offense from 1984-2014. The ages 25-30 are bunched closely enough to that peak plateau to suggest a period in which players are most likely to perform at something close to the height of their abilities — the so-called prime years.

Has there been a new study showing such drastically different results?

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/hitters-no-longer-peak-only-decline/