5/19 CUBS (Hammel) @ Brewers (Guerra) 12:40pm, CSN

[UMFan83]

Lost 2 of 3 to Milwaukee. Fantastic. On to face the hottest team in baseball in a park we never do well.

 

SEE? This is the [expletive] that I'm talking about. Calling a game over when the best team in baseball who has scored the 2nd most runs in baseball and who tied up the game against the closer about 13 hours ago, still has 3 outs to work with? Stupid.

 

Oh yeah, real stupid.

 

Hahahahaha, I hope you are kidding around.

[Tryptamine]

If not for yesterday's miracle win, this team is 2-6 over their last 8 games. This bodes real well going to face the hottest team in the league.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

If not for yesterday's miracle win, this team is 2-6 over their last 8 games. This bodes real well going to face the hottest team in the league.

 

Percentages actually say that a team that has won seven straight will lose a few, so we might be looking good.

[rocket]

we're pretty great against good teams and the Reds, so no worries

[Omar]

we're pretty great against good teams and the Reds, so no worries

 

And the Cards

[Sammy Sofa]

 

SEE? This is the [expletive] that I'm talking about. Calling a game over when the best team in baseball who has scored the 2nd most runs in baseball and who tied up the game against the closer about 13 hours ago, still has 3 outs to work with? Stupid.

 

Oh yeah, real stupid.

 

Hahahahaha, I hope you are kidding around.

 

This dude loves being vindicated by Cubs failing. It's weird.

[UMFan83]

Winning Cubs baseball is like heroin. At first its the greatest thing ever and over time its still awesome but you need more (like run differential wins) to get the same high. Then suddenly its ripped away from you (losing a few games) and you start getting irritated and irrational. You get pissed when you don't have access to the stuff (like an offday after a loss, or a 9pm start tomorrow after a day game). If you just quit watching the Cubs, maybe after 6 months or so you could just enjoy them in moderation, but horsefeathers that Bryant is up with 2 men on, I will quit tomorrow. Edited May 19, 2016 by UMFan83

[wvcbxl]

I will quit tomorrow.

 

You know you won't.

We all know you won't.

[Liam Neeson]

Winning Cubs baseball is like heroin. At first its the greatest thing ever and over time its still awesome but you need more (like run differential wins) to get the same high. Then suddenly its ripped away from you and you start getting irritated and irrational. You get pissed when you don't have access to the stuff (like an offday after a loss, or a 9pm start tomorrow after a day game). If you just quit watching the Cubs, maybe after 6 months or so you could just enjoy them in moderation, but [expletive] that Bryant is up with 2 men on, I will quit tomorrow.

 

Is watching on a really poor quality pirated video stream the equivalent to blowing dealers in back alleys?

[Omar]

Winning Cubs baseball is like heroin. At first its the greatest thing ever and over time its still awesome but you need more (like run differential wins) to get the same high. Then suddenly its ripped away from you and you start getting irritated and irrational. You get pissed when you don't have access to the stuff (like an offday after a loss, or a 9pm start tomorrow after a day game). If you just quit watching the Cubs, maybe after 6 months or so you could just enjoy them in moderation, but [expletive] that Bryant is up with 2 men on, I will quit tomorrow.

 

free clean needles available at Murphy's Bleachers, corner of Waveland and Sheffield

[Little Slide Rooter]

When you're as good as we are, sometimes you let the Junior Guerra's and Chase Anderson's of the world have their day, because it means more to them than it does to us, and dammit, it's the right thing to do.

[David]

If not for yesterday's miracle win, this team is 2-6 over their last 8 games. This bodes real well going to face the hottest team in the league.

 

Percentages actually say that a team that has won seven straight will lose a few, so we might be looking good.

 

Please explain in detail.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

If not for yesterday's miracle win, this team is 2-6 over their last 8 games. This bodes real well going to face the hottest team in the league.

 

Percentages actually say that a team that has won seven straight will lose a few, so we might be looking good.

 

Please explain in detail.

 

Well, I feel like most teams don't play 1.000 ball. So if a team is playing 1.000 percent over the course of seven games, the odds would suggest that they would then lose some to balance that. Now, even though the odds are against them continuing to win every game, it can happen for a lot longer. But I feel like the odds are not in their favor for that to continue.

 

I might be wrong, though. I'm not good at math.

[BrockLanders]

 

Percentages actually say that a team that has won seven straight will lose a few, so we might be looking good.

 

Please explain in detail.

 

Well, I feel like most teams don't play 1.000 ball. So if a team is playing 1.000 percent over the course of seven games, the odds would suggest that they would then lose some to balance that. Now, even though the odds are against them continuing to win every game, it can happen for a lot longer. But I feel like the odds are not in their favor for that to continue.

 

I might be wrong, though. I'm not good at math.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

[UMFan83]

 

Percentages actually say that a team that has won seven straight will lose a few, so we might be looking good.

 

Please explain in detail.

 

Well, I feel like most teams don't play 1.000 ball. So if a team is playing 1.000 percent over the course of seven games, the odds would suggest that they would then lose some to balance that. Now, even though the odds are against them continuing to win every game, it can happen for a lot longer. But I feel like the odds are not in their favor for that to continue.

 

I might be wrong, though. I'm not good at math.

 

I mean that's pretty much exactly gambler's fallacy described. If you flip a coin 7 times and it lands heads, what is the chances the next one is tails? If a .500 team wins 7 games in a row, what are the odds they win the next game? And the game after that?

 

 

Basically whatever you do, don't go to a roulette wheel with that logic.

Edited May 19, 2016 by UMFan83

[Sammy Sofa]

I'll pinch-hit as the game thread starter if requested.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

 

Please explain in detail.

 

Well, I feel like most teams don't play 1.000 ball. So if a team is playing 1.000 percent over the course of seven games, the odds would suggest that they would then lose some to balance that. Now, even though the odds are against them continuing to win every game, it can happen for a lot longer. But I feel like the odds are not in their favor for that to continue.

 

I might be wrong, though. I'm not good at math.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

 

So when the Cubs were like 21-6 or whatever, it was a fallacy to bet that the rate they were winning at would not continue? Honest question.

[Little Slide Rooter]

If she weighs the same as a duck, then she is made of wood.

[UMFan83]

 

Well, I feel like most teams don't play 1.000 ball. So if a team is playing 1.000 percent over the course of seven games, the odds would suggest that they would then lose some to balance that. Now, even though the odds are against them continuing to win every game, it can happen for a lot longer. But I feel like the odds are not in their favor for that to continue.

 

I might be wrong, though. I'm not good at math.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

 

So when the Cubs were like 21-6 or whatever, it was a fallacy to bet that the rate they were winning at would not continue? Honest question.

 

What you are describing is more of 'regression to the mean' (i think), in that the Cubs probably aren't an .800 winning % baseball team (because no team has ever been one in MLB history). So eventually they will play to their true talent level, which is maybe something like .625-.650.

 

Gambler's fallacy would be saying "the Cubs are a .650 team that has been playing .800 ball, thus they are more likely go on a losing streak right now'

[David]

I'll pinch-hit as the game thread starter if requested.

 

I'm requesting it.

[Bryants Disco Ball]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

 

So when the Cubs were like 21-6 or whatever, it was a fallacy to bet that the rate they were winning at would not continue? Honest question.

 

What you are describing is more of 'regression to the mean' (i think), in that the Cubs probably aren't an .800 winning % baseball team (because no team has ever been one in MLB history). So eventually they will play to their true talent level, which is maybe something like .625-.650.

 

Gambler's fallacy would be saying "the Cubs are a .650 team that has been playing .800 ball, thus they are more likely go on a losing streak right now'

 

That's fair. You're right that I'm talking more regression to the mean. Guess I learned something here. I also didn't mean to imply that a team that is on a seven game winning streak would then be prone to go on a losing streak, but more just actually lose a game............which sounds like it's bad logic even though to me it seems right.

 

I will not be gambling any time soon with my knowledge of this horsefeathers.

[Sammy Sofa]

I'll pinch-hit as the game thread starter if requested.

 

I'm requesting it.

 

I will defer to Fred.

[Sosa21MVP]

IT'S OVAH

[Omar]

Winning Cubs baseball is like heroin. At first its the greatest thing ever and over time its still awesome but you need more (like run differential wins) to get the same high. Then suddenly its ripped away from you (losing a few games) and you start getting irritated and irrational. You get pissed when you don't have access to the stuff (like an offday after a loss, or a 9pm start tomorrow after a day game). If you just quit watching the Cubs, maybe after 6 months or so you could just enjoy them in moderation, but [expletive] that Bryant is up with 2 men on, I will quit tomorrow.

 

brb, selling my mom's TV for Cubs tickets

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I'll pinch-hit as the game thread starter if requested.

 

Sorry, cubscott34.