On Bended Knee - The Rizzo Thread

[Bertz]

So of the core players, is Rizz the first with an expiring contract? Who is next?

 

Pitching, Q and Lester with one more year?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CHC/chicago-cubs-salaries-and-contracts.shtml

 

FA's by year

 

post-2018: Wilson

2019: Strop, Zobrist, Cishek, Smyly, Duensing

2020: Hendricks, La Stella, Morrow, Quintana, Chatwood, outside chance of Lester's option being declined

2021: Lester(if not the year before), Rizzo, Bryant, Russell, Baez, Schwarber, Montgomery

2022: Contreras, Edwards, Almora

 

2032: Harper

[Regular Show]

You know we don't make enough posts about how awesome Rizzo is.

 

Great play tonight:

 

[tweet]

[/tweet]

[Irrelevant Dude]

When do we start to get concerned about Rizzo? The slumps are becoming more frequent, and when he slumps, he REALLY slumps. I don't know what his soft contact rate is, or where to even find such a thing, but it sure seems like he has more soft contact than anyone else in the Cubs lineup. He also has the lowest OPS of anyone in the lineup, sitting right in the cleanup spot. The rest of the lineup has been picking up the slack for awhile, which is pretty amazing especially without Bryant, but that can't go on forever. Has anyone picked up on anything mechanically to explain why Rizzo has struggled so much this season for extended periods of time?

[Derwood]

He seems to have an extreme uppercut swing right now

[bukie]

When do we start to get concerned about Rizzo? The slumps are becoming more frequent, and when he slumps, he REALLY slumps. I don't know what his soft contact rate is, or where to even find such a thing, but it sure seems like he has more soft contact than anyone else in the Cubs lineup. He also has the lowest OPS of anyone in the lineup, sitting right in the cleanup spot. The rest of the lineup has been picking up the slack for awhile, which is pretty amazing especially without Bryant, but that can't go on forever. Has anyone picked up on anything mechanically to explain why Rizzo has struggled so much this season for extended periods of time?

Even with all the struggling he's still an above average hitter with a good walk rate and phenomenal K rate. His yearly splits are amazingly consistent, so I'd expect some serious regression in the second half to the norms.

[Cubswin11]

Everything he’s doing looks in line with his last few years and even some encouraging things.

 

His K rate is at an all time low, his BB rate is around career norms, his LD % is at an all time high, his GB % is lower than any year since 2015 (and below his career rate), his FB % is a tick down but nothing crazy, his pull/middle/oppo rates are in line with career numbers (he’s pulling like 2% more and going oppo 2% less), his soft contact % is at an all time low, his med contact % is at an all time high and his hard contact is right where it’s always been.

 

So idk, seems like he’s really not doing much wrong to be where he is other than some bad luck (though I agree the eye test has me thinking he’s making a lot more weak and GB contact than before but that’s not what the numbers say). His BABIP is ~.035 lower than his career average, if that’s more normal with 4-7 more HRS he’s right where he’d normally should be and he’s doing everything he’s always done to put up the numbers he’s put up in the past. It’s a little weird.

 

 

Assuming health I think he’s in for a big second half.

[Tim]

Everything he’s doing looks in line with his last few years and even some encouraging things.

 

His K rate is at an all time low, his BB rate is around career norms, his LD % is at an all time high, his GB % is lower than any year since 2015 (and below his career rate), his FB % is a tick down but nothing crazy, his pull/middle/oppo rates are in line with career numbers (he’s pulling like 2% more and going oppo 2% less), his soft contact % is at an all time low, his med contact % is at an all time high and his hard contact is right where it’s always been.

 

So idk, seems like he’s really not doing much wrong to be where he is other than some bad luck (though I agree the eye test has me thinking he’s making a lot more weak and GB contact than before but that’s not what the numbers say). His BABIP is ~.035 lower than his career average, if that’s more normal with 4-7 more HRS he’s right where he’d normally should be and he’s doing everything he’s always done to put up the numbers he’s put up in the past. It’s a little weird.

 

 

Assuming health I think he’s in for a big second half.

He's gotten screwed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=CHC&min=100

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Everything he’s doing looks in line with his last few years and even some encouraging things.

 

His K rate is at an all time low, his BB rate is around career norms, his LD % is at an all time high, his GB % is lower than any year since 2015 (and below his career rate), his FB % is a tick down but nothing crazy, his pull/middle/oppo rates are in line with career numbers (he’s pulling like 2% more and going oppo 2% less), his soft contact % is at an all time low, his med contact % is at an all time high and his hard contact is right where it’s always been.

 

So idk, seems like he’s really not doing much wrong to be where he is other than some bad luck (though I agree the eye test has me thinking he’s making a lot more weak and GB contact than before but that’s not what the numbers say). His BABIP is ~.035 lower than his career average, if that’s more normal with 4-7 more HRS he’s right where he’d normally should be and he’s doing everything he’s always done to put up the numbers he’s put up in the past. It’s a little weird.

 

 

Assuming health I think he’s in for a big second half.

He's gotten screwed. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=CHC&min=100

 

xWOBA by year:

2015 - .382

2016 - .366

2017 - .400

2018 - .374

 

Average exit velocity:

2015 - 88.4 mph

2016 - 88.9 mph

2017 - 88.0 mph

2018 - 90.1 mph

 

And as Cubswin11 said, all his peripheral stats look fine. His batted ball profile is the same. His contact% and swing% numbers are the same. His BB% is a little deflated because he had some weird sequencing going on early in the year. And he's been really unlucky. .243 BABIP. His HR/FB is way lower than it usually is. He's hitting the ball hard, but I do think he might be having some issues with hitting them at proper launch angles when he is hitting it hard. Once he starts maximizing his power, he'll be fine.

 

I think it's weird to worry about him, though. He's been the same guy the last 4 years. He's 28. He's healthy. All of his underlying numbers look the same. He's just having a down year.

[Derwood]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

 

Nah, your eye test is being led astray by his slash line. He's the same guy.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

 

His last homer was on 6/24. So let's start on 6/25. IFFB% = 0.0%

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B&gds=2018-06-25&gde=2018-07-07&type=3

[Derwood]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

 

His last homer was on 6/24. So let's start on 6/25. IFFB% = 0.0%

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B&gds=2018-06-25&gde=2018-07-07&type=3

 

I'm too dumb to understand what most of those numbers mean, so I have to ask if a 51.3% RB rate is high for him?

 

And I'm not worried about his slash line, I'm just seeing a lot of pop up and ground balls. Looking back, he raked in the Twins series, so clearly he's been good very recently, and I don't watch every single game, so my sampling of seeing his at-bats is admittedly incomplete

[Aaron_Kennelly]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

 

His last homer was on 6/24. So let's start on 6/25. IFFB% = 0.0%

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B&gds=2018-06-25&gde=2018-07-07&type=3

 

I'm too dumb to understand what most of those numbers mean, so I have to ask if a 51.3% RB rate is high for him?

 

And I'm not worried about his slash line, I'm just seeing a lot of pop up and ground balls. Looking back, he raked in the Twins series, so clearly he's been good very recently, and I don't watch every single game, so my sampling of seeing his at-bats is admittedly incomplete

 

It's a little high. But it's also 40 PA. It's like 4 more ground balls than you'd expect. It means nothing. He's the same guy.

[Derwood]

He has a crazy batting average split this season with bases empty vs. RISP (.203 vs. .326), and he's driven the majority of his runs in without the HR (9 of his 12 HR are solo shots).

[Cubswin11]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

His batted ball info for his career (also career best and/or range in parenthesis);

 

LD%: 21.3% (25.2%, 2018)

GB%: 39.2% (34.6%, 2015)

FB%: 39.5% (43.6%, 2015)

IFFB%: 8.8% (5.9%, 2014)

PULL%: 43.6% (he's been between 42.2% and 45.6% every year since 2013)

CENT%: 34.6% (between 32.6% and 35.9% since 2013)

OPPO%: 21.8% (between 19.4% and 21.9% since 2013)

SOFT%: 16.6% (between 15.7% and 19.8% since 2013)

MED%: 50.3% (between 45.9% and 52.7% since 2013)

HARD%: 33.1% (between 31.6% and 34.4% since 2013)

 

now these same things each month this year;

 

Mar/Apr: LD% 20.7%, GB% 39.7%, FB% 39.7% IFFB% 8.7%, PULL% 45.8%, CENT% 37.3%, OPPO% 17%, SOFT% 13.6%, MED% 55.9%, HARD% 30.5%

 

May: LD% 28.6%, GB% 28.6%, FB% 42.9.7% IFFB% 12.8%, PULL% 45.1%, CENT% 36.3%, OPPO% 18.7%, SOFT% 15.4%, MED% 48.4%, HARD% 36.3%

 

June: LD% 25%, GB% 44.3%, FB% 30.7% IFFB% 3.7%, PULL% 47.7%, CENT% 29.6%, OPPO% 22.7%, SOFT% 17.1%, MED% 51.1%, HARD% 31.8%

 

July: LD% 23.5%, GB% 47.1%, FB% 29.4% IFFB% 0%, PULL% 35.3%, CENT% 47.1%, OPPO% 17.7%, SOFT% 15.7%, MED% 51.4%, HARD% 32.9%

 

The GB's have spiked up a bit the last 2 months but nothing crazy, the soft, med and hard have been around his career numbers every month, the LD has spiked a bit every month over his career (which is good), the FBs are down the last two months which will lead to some less Dongage and probably explains some of the bad BABIP luck. Overall each month though he's kinda been within reason of his career numbers and when one thing seems to spike in the wrong direction he's doing something else well to make up for it (GBs up but LDs also up for example over career numbers). He's largely been the same player just not getting expected results.

[Sammy Sofa]

He's the same guy this year, but not good.

 

Rizzo, please be a super jerk in your own time and not on the field, thanks.

[Derwood]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

consecutive days leaving the game as part of a double switch. could the trade to free up Schwarber's spot be next? hug watch!

[Aaron_Kennelly]

xWOBA by year:

2015 - .382

2016 - .366

2017 - .400

2018 - .374

 

Average exit velocity:

2015 - 88.4 mph

2016 - 88.9 mph

2017 - 88.0 mph

2018 - 90.1 mph

 

And as Cubswin11 said, all his peripheral stats look fine. His batted ball profile is the same. His contact% and swing% numbers are the same. His BB% is a little deflated because he had some weird sequencing going on early in the year. And he's been really unlucky. .243 BABIP. His HR/FB is way lower than it usually is. He's hitting the ball hard, but I do think he might be having some issues with hitting them at proper launch angles when he is hitting it hard. Once he starts maximizing his power, he'll be fine.

 

I think it's weird to worry about him, though. He's been the same guy the last 4 years. He's 28. He's healthy. All of his underlying numbers look the same. He's just having a down year.

 

Nah, your eye test is being led astray by his slash line. He's the same guy.

 

It's a little high. But it's also 40 PA. It's like 4 more ground balls than you'd expect. It means nothing. He's the same guy.

 

 

*Somehow

[Cubswin11]

I think this is the rare case where the eye test and the stats don't match up. "Unlucky in BABIP" is him constantly grounding into the shift and popping balls up into the infield.

 

I'd be curious how those numbers break down by month, as he has looked terrible more often than not in the last several weeks

His batted ball info for his career (also career best and/or range in parenthesis);

 

LD%: 21.3% (25.2%, 2018)

GB%: 39.2% (34.6%, 2015)

FB%: 39.5% (43.6%, 2015)

IFFB%: 8.8% (5.9%, 2014)

PULL%: 43.6% (he's been between 42.2% and 45.6% every year since 2013)

CENT%: 34.6% (between 32.6% and 35.9% since 2013)

OPPO%: 21.8% (between 19.4% and 21.9% since 2013)

SOFT%: 16.6% (between 15.7% and 19.8% since 2013)

MED%: 50.3% (between 45.9% and 52.7% since 2013)

HARD%: 33.1% (between 31.6% and 34.4% since 2013)

 

now these same things each month this year;

 

Mar/Apr: LD% 20.7%, GB% 39.7%, FB% 39.7% IFFB% 8.7%, PULL% 45.8%, CENT% 37.3%, OPPO% 17%, SOFT% 13.6%, MED% 55.9%, HARD% 30.5%

 

May: LD% 28.6%, GB% 28.6%, FB% 42.9.7% IFFB% 12.8%, PULL% 45.1%, CENT% 36.3%, OPPO% 18.7%, SOFT% 15.4%, MED% 48.4%, HARD% 36.3%

 

June: LD% 25%, GB% 44.3%, FB% 30.7% IFFB% 3.7%, PULL% 47.7%, CENT% 29.6%, OPPO% 22.7%, SOFT% 17.1%, MED% 51.1%, HARD% 31.8%

 

July: LD% 23.5%, GB% 47.1%, FB% 29.4% IFFB% 0%, PULL% 35.3%, CENT% 47.1%, OPPO% 17.7%, SOFT% 15.7%, MED% 51.4%, HARD% 32.9%

 

The GB's have spiked up a bit the last 2 months but nothing crazy, the soft, med and hard have been around his career numbers every month, the LD has spiked a bit every month over his career (which is good), the FBs are down the last two months which will lead to some less Dongage and probably explains some of the bad BABIP luck. Overall each month though he's kinda been within reason of his career numbers and when one thing seems to spike in the wrong direction he's doing something else well to make up for it (GBs up but LDs also up for example over career numbers). He's largely been the same player just not getting expected results.

Shut up with your numbers, nerd. This sucky bum is clearly just a sucky jerk ass bum who sucks

[Derwood]

He's 3 for his last 30

[Ding Dong Johnson]

He's 3 for his last 30

you're missing a 0

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There will never be another slumping or broken player who doesn't get a "actually his peripherals" are fine posts. There's enough peripherals now that there's always some that are fine.

[Cubswin11]

There will never be another slumping or broken player who doesn't get a "actually his peripherals" are fine posts. There's enough peripherals now that there's always some that are fine.

Yeah only idiots try and post about those to make sense of things

[We Got The Whole 9]

He's 3 for his last 30

I'm pretty sure he's endured one of those before... probably in April