Minor League Prediction Thread

[davell]

Use it for whatever predictions you want, I'll guess who is considered top 100 at this point next year, who we trade away, and who makes a major league appearance at any point in 2016.....

 

Top 100

 

2B Ian Happ- Shows he can be passable at 2B and mashes enough to get a postseason invite up to Tennessee. Top 30 prospect.

C Willson Contreras- Takes a step back with the bat, but still solid, showing a bit more power, glove looks passable. Top 75 prospect.

RHP Oscar De la Cruz- Takes off big time. Forces a promotion to Myrtle Beach at midseason and does very well there too. Top 20 prospect.

RF Eloy Jimenez- Hits for power in South Bend and shows discipline, firmly on everyone's radar nationally. Top 75 prospect.

 

Others of note....

 

Cease still shows control issues and it holds him back somewhat. Spends most of season in Eugene, but is still thought of as a breakout guy for 2017. Eddy Julio Martinez puts up a low .700's OPS in South Bend, still looked at very favorably, due to upside. Steele puts up a very solid season in South Bend, doesn't make lists due to lack of perceived upside(4 type starter). DJ Wilson starts off slowly, but finishes strong and gets a promotion late to South Bend. Is considered a break out guy by lots heading into 2017.

 

Top 10 heading into 2017

1 RHP Oscar De La Cruz

2 2B Ian Happ

3 C Willson Contreras

4 RF Eloy Jimenez

5 RHP Dylan Cease

6 LHP Justin Steele

7 LF Billy McKinney

8 RHP Norge Ruiz(pitches briefly after getting signed in June)

9 CF DJ Wilson

10 CF Eddy Julio Martinez

11-15 in some order....RHP Trevor Clifton, OF Donnie Dewees, 1B Vogelbach, C Victor Caratini, and RHP Jen Ho Tseng.

 

Considered an 8-10 system by most analysts heading into 2017

 

Trade away.....

 

Christian Villanueva gets dealt for a low level arm prior to the season.

 

Soler, Gleyber Torres, Underwood(pitches well until dealt), and Jeimer Candelario get dealt to Oakland for Sonny Gray in late June.

 

Prospects that get ML time in 2016

 

CJ Edwards- very solid bullpen contributor all season long.

Almora- loses rookie eligibility due to injuries forcing him up in different 15 day stints. Not much with bat(.625ish OPS), but glove puts him on our postseason roster.

Vogelbach- September callup, gets a few starts and pinch hits daily.

 

Anyway, thought it'd be fun to try, to look back at in a year. Anyone else got predictions?

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Ryan Kellogg has a 6+ ERA, doesn't strike guys out, gets hit around pretty badly, and is, generally, just awful.

[Cubswin11]

- Almora/Jeimer both have disappointing seasons, Almora not being able to maintain what he did in August and Jeimer not doing it for a full year.

 

- EJM is a lot more advanced than anyone thought and becomes a top 75 prospect with upside

 

- Eloy and Torres both continue to perform well at young ages in older leagues, Torres becomes a top 15 prospect with Eloy top 50

 

- 3 of Cease/Underwood/Hudson/Sands/Steele/De La Cruz/Clifton/Kellogg/Twomey emerge as legit MOR-Fringe TOR type starters.

 

- Contreras doesn't quite repeat what he did with the bat, but improves all around on defense and game calling ends year expected to be part of the starting catching unit in 2017

 

- Happ excels like the 1st rd college bats before him and sticks at 2B, turns out to be a top 20 prospect

 

- Tseng, Stinnett, and Pierce Johnson essentially flame out

 

- Mckinney starts the year slow coming back from the knee injury but turns it on by June and finishes the year strong and holds on to roughly where he is being ranked now

 

- Ryan Williams continues to be Kyle Hendricks 2.0

 

- Vogelbach finally starts hitting for power, is traded by the deadline in a deal

 

- Caratini gives us another legit catching prospect after an excellent year, some start liking him more than Contreras as our catcher of the future

 

- Zagunis has a contreras/Jeimer type break out, tapping into some power and continuing excellent bb rates. Looked at more than a 4/5th OF.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Cubswin11

[StylesClash]

There seems to be a whole lot of excitement for Happ. Anyone care to project a slash line for him? And what's a realistic comp?

 

PS: Since Schwarber received a big league promotion a year after being drafted, if Happ indeed has a breakout season could a September call up be a legitimate possibility?

[sneakypower]

Cease jumps into the top 25

[Cubswin11]

There seems to be a whole lot of excitement for Happ. Anyone care to project a slash line for him? And what's a realistic comp?

 

PS: Since Schwarber received a big league promotion a year after being drafted, if Happ indeed has a breakout season could a September call up be a legitimate possibility?

Slash line prediction, .270-.285/.340-.360/.450-.480, ~9% BB rate, ~20% K rate and 20 HR +/- 5. As for a comp, of current players Neil Walker seems like a decent one. I also like the good years Mark Bellhorn comp. A 2007-08' and 2010-12' switch hitting Rickie Weeks might not be a terrible comp either.

 

His bat isn't on the Bryant/Schwarber level, so even if he "breaks out" I don't think his "break out" will warrant hugely aggressive promotions, especially to MLB.

[StylesClash]

And what's a realistic comp?

 

I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head.

 

---

 

Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick.

 

Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat.

 

I'd love for Happ to turn into someone with great contact skills, a bit of pop, and who could take the occasional Walk. In other words a very solid number two hitter.

 

As for this Lawson fellow, is he a high upside arm? I feel like with having so many slots in the lineup locked up for years Theo should take a chance and use that Fowler pick on a somewhat risky high upside arm. It's just kind of frustrating to not have that many pitchers in the farm system to get enthused about. Even if he flames out it's not as if a top ten pick was sacrificed in the process.

[Cubswin11]

And what's a realistic comp?

 

I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head.

 

---

 

Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick.

 

Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat.

The two good years of Bellhorn (7.3 fWAR) adds up to almost all of Walker's entire career fWAR (9.5). You absolutely want Happ turning into the good Bellhorn over any version of Todd Walker.

[StylesClash]

 

I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head.

 

---

 

Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick.

 

Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat.

The two good years of Bellhorn (7.3 fWAR) adds up to almost all of Walker's entire career fWAR (9.5). You absolutely want Happ turning into the good Bellhorn over any version of Todd Walker.

 

I thought the career version of Bellhorn was being discussed as the comparison, not 2002. Do you guys really think Ian Happ could come somewhat close to replicating 2002 Bellhorn while playing a tolerable Second Base?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Contreras puts up a .800 OPS give or take at Iowa and generally looks like a first division catching prospect

 

- Almora avoids prolonged slumps in Iowa but still has a 750ish OPS to cast doubt on his ability to be a starting OF

 

- Ryan Williams continues to take the Hendricks path of no hype to being a capable MLB SP

 

- Zagunis sadly goes the way of Stephen Bruno in his first AA exposure

 

- Underwood continues to look very good to the eye test while not actually getting minor league hitters out like he should, is hopefully used in a blockbuster deadline deal before everyone else figures out he's fools gold

 

- Jimenez and EJM both show well in full season ball, drawing some comparisons to the Lake/Castro hype train when they were in low levels.

 

- Donnie Dewees is either the new McKinney or the new Zagunis, I can't decide which. Neither is a particularly great compliment.

[Cubswin11]

 

Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat.

The two good years of Bellhorn (7.3 fWAR) adds up to almost all of Walker's entire career fWAR (9.5). You absolutely want Happ turning into the good Bellhorn over any version of Todd Walker.

 

I thought the career version of Bellhorn was being discussed as the comparison, not 2002. Do you guys really think Ian Happ could come somewhat close to replicating 2002 Bellhorn while playing a tolerable Second Base?

Yes, I think it's possible 2002 or 2004 Bellhorn is what he becomes. It's the upper level of his ceiling but it's certainly possible. This year should give us a clearer picture of his long term position, but there's enough guys who think he can stick at 2B (including our FO) that I think he can at least be passable there.

[David]

And what's a realistic comp?

 

I always go back to the good version of Mark Bellhorn for ceiling. Bellhorn was only good twice, and I think a few years apart too, but otherwise the heavy Iso offense, passable D, switch hitting 2B thing works in my head.

 

---

 

Draft prediction: Cubs take HS RHP Reggie Lawson with the Fowler comp pick.

 

Mark Bellhorn.......eek. I was hoping for Todd Walker. I felt like Walker's defensive shortcomings were overblown and he should have been given more credit for his bat.

 

I'd love for Happ to turn into someone with great contact skills, a bit of pop, and who could take the occasional Walk. In other words a very solid number two hitter.

 

As for this Lawson fellow, is he a high upside arm? I feel like with having so many slots in the lineup locked up for years Theo should take a chance and use that Fowler pick on a somewhat risky high upside arm. It's just kind of frustrating to not have that many pitchers in the farm system to get enthused about. Even if he flames out it's not as if a top ten pick was sacrificed in the process.

 

I don't think Happ is going to have great contact skills. Doesn't mean he can't be a good player, though.

[sneakypower]

i liken Happ to Kelly Johnson

[toonsterwu]

Cease jumps into the top 25

 

Don't know about top 25, but I can definitely see Cease making a jump to top 50 if the revamped mechanics hold and the stuff still shows well. There's some similarities to Anderson Espinoza in terms of stuff, but the biggest difference, by most accounts, was mechanics. If Cease's revamped mechanics hold ... I can definitely see him make that jump.

[craig]

De la Cruz looks really good.

 

Eloy remains inconsistent and doesn't hit a ton of HR's, but makes pretty good progress in full season and remains well valued.

 

McKinney starts late so doesn't rack up volume stats, but has a good year in AA.

 

Almora and Contreras put up .780- and 820-type OPS in Iowa.

 

Happ strikes out like crazy and looks like the next Brett Jackson without the CF defense.

 

Martinez stays in Mesa for quite a while, and doesn't hit a lot after being promoted to box-score league.

 

Candelario doesn't sustain enough offense to be highly valued.

 

Pierce Johnson starts the season healthy and stays healthy, does well at Iowa, and looks pretty good with the Cubs.

 

Edwards improves his control somewhat and becomes an interesting back-of-bullpen guy by late summer.

 

Tseng has a better year in AA, throws 92-ish more consistently, gets more K's, and gets more interest.

 

Skulina starts and stays healthy, and ends up getting valued.

 

Stinnett rediscovers his slider and K's a lot more people.

 

Donnie Dewees hits a surprising number of HR's and has a high average.

 

Zastryzny stays healthy enough to allow a shocking number of HR's.

 

Sands falls off the map.

 

Adbert Alzolay K's guys like crazy and becomes a serious prospect.

 

Cease remains prohibitively wild.

[toonsterwu]

If he starts in the PCL, I'd be surprised if Candelario didn't show some power. Guys with decent hit tools, solid approaches (again, doubt he repeats last year's flick the switch K/BB numbers at AA, but for his career, he's shown a fairly solid approach at the plate), and above average power potential tend to show some power in the PCL if they make enough contact. Obviously, nothing is impossible. Now ... I can actually see him struggling/bad a bit more (say, putting numbers akin to his first High A stint ... or even his numbers in A ball), with the case being that upper level plus stuff guys and upper level, polished junk stuff guys causes him trouble, but even then, I would expect him to show some power ... if he's in the PCL.

 

That said, he is going to be an interesting guy to watch. If Candelario gets off to a hot start ... he could definitely vault his way up into being a big time trade chip at the deadline, a young, close to ready 3rd base prospect.

[craig]

Are you guys expecting Candelario to skip up to AAA right off? I'd guess he'll start in AA again, and get mid-season promotion if he does well.

 

Last year he had a .770 OPS with 10 HR. Even in Southern, he was .840 in a hot spell. Hopefully he'll step it up, and he's ready to explode. But I think there's a good chance that he'll be back as a .770-.840 type OPS guy, with defense that's variably evaluated as average. Not a top-50 type guy, or the major piece in a trade for a TORP.

 

If he does go straight to PCL, offense there is pretty inflated. Being an .800-.850 type guy in PCL is nice enough for a young player, but it's not very wow.

 

I'm predicting that he won't be very wow.

[craig]

I'll predict two pitchers will be very effective: David Berg and Preston Morrison.

 

Both are obviously prove-it-at-every-level guys. But I'll predict that Morrison continues to be effective at Myrtle, ERA < 3, and Berg will continue to be effective at Myrtle and Tennessee. Control goes a long way in A-ball; few hitters have the power to HR-penalize them when they do throw slow fastballs for strikes; and minor leaguers have very little experience with sidearm pitching. Of course at the end of the season, even though they are effective minor leaguers, we'll still have no idea what to make of them or how seriously to consider them as major-league prospects.

 

But I won't be at all surprised if Morrison ends up being the Cubs minor-league pitcher of the year.

[craig]

Small sample, but Morrison was 30K/3BB/0HR/22IP with 2.4 G/A ratio.

 

I don't remember many Cubs pitchers putting up splits like that, ever. I'm old enough to remember way back when Mike Harkey, Lance Dickson, and Jamie Moyer put up some really strong minor-leaguer numbers. Scott Downs? Mike Meyers? Mark Prior's brief minor-league work was pretty great.

 

Will be interesting to see how Morrison's stuff translates to presumably A+ this spring. Well, maybe it won't, in the event that the results are decent but not special; given that with a triple-minus arm, he'll need to be sustaining doube-plus results to sustain much interest.

[craig]

That makes sense. I guess most guys spend more than 6 weeks in AA on their development path, so I won't be surprised if they give Candelario more time there too. Won't be surprised whether he starts at either level, I guess.

[toonsterwu]

I think Candelario's placement probably depends on this spring. He's on such a high now that I could see Iowa, but I'm guessing Tennessee, akin to McKinney starting in High A last year.