soccer soccer soccer

[UMFan83]

Rank the potential UEFA opponent:

 

Wales, Ukraine, Scotland from hardest to easiest? Of course Ukraine has an interesting variable that is hard to quantify

[bukie]

Rank the potential UEFA opponent:

 

Wales, Ukraine, Scotland from hardest to easiest? Of course Ukraine has an interesting variable that is hard to quantify

I still have severe doubts that Ukraine will be able to play in that game in June.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

With the non-elite UEFA teams I'm of two minds. On one hand, playing a less talented/accomplished team helps because they're definitionally less good. On the other hand, the US under Berhalter has done well against teams that want to try to have the ball, so if it's not some powerhouse then I don't think we might mind playing a marginally better team that isn't going to sit deep. With that in mind I don't think there's an obvious 'yes please them' or 'no not them', doubly so with all the uncertainty surrounding Ukraine. I guess I would slightly prefer not to play Ukraine, both because I think there's likely a lift they'd get from repping their country this year greater than the average team(probably not dissimilar to the hosts), and also because Wales/Scotland would be intense games for England which would help us in our match with those 2.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, I'm not going to claim to be an expert on Asian soccer, but I'm highly skeptical of the trumpeting of Iran I've seen in a couple places. There are 5 non-Iran teams in AFC ranked in the Top 51(Qatar is 51). Iran had 16 competitive games in this cycle between qualifying and the Asian cup, and only 3 of those games were against those 5, and in those 3 games they were 0-2-1 with 1 goal scored and 6 against. You can only beat who you play and I don't want to say they're unworthy of their spot, but all 3 other teams should be favored to control the game and win against them.

[bukie]

Way too early predictions:

 

Group A: 1. Senegal 2. Netherlands

Group B: 1. USA 2. England

Group C: 1. Argentina 2. Mexico

Group D: 1. Denmark 2. Peru

Group E: 1. Germany 2. Japan

Group F: 1. Belgium 2. Canada

Group G: 1. Brazil 2. Serbia

Group H: 1. Portugal 2. Uruguay

 

Knockout:

England over Senegal

Argentina over Peru

Germany over Canada

Brazil over Uruguay

USA over Netherlands

Mexico over Denmark

Belgium over Japan

Portugal over Serbia

 

Argentina over England

Brazil over Germany

USA over Mexico

Belgium over Portugal

 

Brazil over Argentina

Belgium over USA

 

Brazil over Belgium

[wolf stansson]

Sitting here, thinking about Tyler Adams vs Jack Grealish.

[bukie]

Also, I'm not going to claim to be an expert on Asian soccer, but I'm highly skeptical of the trumpeting of Iran I've seen in a couple places. There are 5 non-Iran teams in AFC ranked in the Top 51(Qatar is 51). Iran had 16 competitive games in this cycle between qualifying and the Asian cup, and only 3 of those games were against those 5, and in those 3 games they were 0-2-1 with 1 goal scored and 6 against. You can only beat who you play and I don't want to say they're unworthy of their spot, but all 3 other teams should be favored to control the game and win against them.

Yeah, I see Iran as maybe the third best team in AFC behind Japan and South Korea, ahead of Australia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

 

It's really only the pot 4 draw that hurt this from being an ideal draw from the US's point of view.

[UMFan83]

Again I know the flaws of the FIFA rankings but here is the average fifa ranking for each group. For playoffs, I took the highest ranked team possible

 

A: 32

B: 15

C: 22

D: 18

E: 18

F: 20

G: 19

H: 28

 

To compare the US group of death in 2014 had an average ranking of 14.

[stitchface]

Again I know the flaws of the FIFA rankings but here is the average fifa ranking for each group. For playoffs, I took the highest ranked team possible

 

A: 32

B: 15

C: 22

D: 18

E: 18

F: 20

G: 19

H: 28

 

To compare the US group of death in 2014 had an average ranking of 14.

 

 

England is the notre dame of international soccer - always over-rated. Sounds like maybe Iran is also over-rated and we know the US . . .

[Transmogrified Tiger]

England is the notre dame of international soccer - always over-rated. Sounds like maybe Iran is also over-rated and we know the US . . .

 

England made the semis in 2018 and the Euro 2020 finals so I think their current status is pretty deserved. Maybe more to the point, England isn't a great matchup for the US because they use their talent to create defensive solidity first and foremost. In those 2 tournaments England has allowed 10 goals in 14 matches, and the only teams to score more than one were Croatia(needed extra time) and Belgium(low intensity 3rd place game). You can nick a point on them if you too are defensively sound and they aren't having a strong game(they have 23 goals in those 14 but nearly half came v. Panama & Ukraine), but compared to someone like Argentina, Spain, and maybe Belgium, they're tougher to get 3 points from, IMO.

[bukie]

Planning ahead, the US will be playing England on Black Friday, and I fully expect Fox Sports to make sure that game is in a good time slot for both fan bases, either 11am EST or 2pm EST (if Daylight Savings is permanent, that would be Noon/3pm).

[UMFan83]

Speaking of FOX they have to be loving this. Thanksgiving NFL game on Thursday, USA-England on Friday, Michigan-Ohio State on Saturday.

[wvcbxl]

Way too early predictions:

 

Group A: 1. Senegal 2. Netherlands

Group B: 1. USA 2. England

Group C: 1. Argentina 2. Mexico

Group D: 1. Denmark 2. Peru

Group E: 1. Germany 2. Japan

Group F: 1. Belgium 2. Canada

Group G: 1. Brazil 2. Serbia

Group H: 1. Portugal 2. Uruguay

 

Knockout:

England over Senegal

Argentina over Peru

Germany over Canada

Brazil over Uruguay

USA over Netherlands

Mexico over Denmark

Belgium over Japan

Portugal over Serbia

 

Argentina over England

Brazil over Germany

USA over Mexico

Belgium over Portugal

 

Brazil over Argentina

Belgium over USA

 

Brazil over Belgium

 

With the exception of the final, I’ll take it. :wink:

[UMFan83]

ELO model gives us tied for the lowest odds of advancing, though I'm not sure how accurate it can be without knowing the 4th team

 

[bukie]

ELO model gives us tied for the lowest odds of advancing, though I'm not sure how accurate it can be without knowing the 4th team

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Iran has made the last 2 world cups. In 2014 they finished last in their group, scoring only 1 goal across 3 games(in a dead rubber tie with Bosnia). In 2018 they beat Morocco with a 95th minute own goal, got waxed by Bosnia 3-1, and got a 93rd minute penalty to tie Portugal when they needed a win. 6 games, 1-2-3 record, 3 goals for(dead rubber, own goal, PK) and 6 against. I mentioned up thread how they haven't beaten any of the WC-caliber teams in their own confederation in order to qualify.

 

Their confederation has not faired a ton better. The AFC has never had a team win a knockout round game aside from South Korea's 2002 run as the host. In 2018 only 1 of 5 teams advanced from the group(Japan, who won the Fair play tiebreaker on Senegal). In 2014 it was 0 for 4.

 

This doesn't mean Iran is garbage, they're better than teams the US didn't always handle in the Ocho, and they'll play a defense first style that isn't an ideal match for our weaknesses. But I cannot respect a statistical model that puts them on equal footing in quality with the US.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Iran has made the last 2 world cups. In 2014 they finished last in their group, scoring only 1 goal across 3 games(in a dead rubber tie with Bosnia). In 2018 they beat Morocco with a 95th minute own goal, got waxed by Bosnia 3-1, and got a 93rd minute penalty to tie Portugal when they needed a win. 6 games, 1-2-3 record, 3 goals for(dead rubber, own goal, PK) and 6 against. I mentioned up thread how they haven't beaten any of the WC-caliber teams in their own confederation in order to qualify.

 

Their confederation has not faired a ton better. The AFC has never had a team win a knockout round game aside from South Korea's 2002 run as the host. In 2018 only 1 of 5 teams advanced from the group(Japan, who won the Fair play tiebreaker on Senegal). In 2014 it was 0 for 4.

 

This doesn't mean Iran is garbage, they're better than teams the US didn't always handle in the Ocho, and they'll play a defense first style that isn't an ideal match for our weaknesses. But I cannot respect a statistical model that puts them on equal footing in quality with the US.

Elo models that aren't robust (don't have high numbers of outcomes) are garbage.

[UMFan83]

I guess the other good thing about the draw is that we are matched up against Group A in the round of 16. The runner up of B will probably play Netherlands, but the winner is looking at Senegal, Qatar or Ecuador

[Transmogrified Tiger]

good news, no early games

[stitchface]

Interesting - Brazil, Switzerland and Serbia were all in the same group in 2018 also. That seems improbable

[bukie]

good news, no early games

Ouch, the 1st place team in group C and 2nd place team in group D will get one day of rest between their final group game and the knockout round.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

good news, no early games

Ouch, the 1st place team in group C and 2nd place team in group D will get one day of rest between their final group game and the knockout round.

 

I think that's a Wednesday to Saturday gap, the 30th and the 3rd being the matchdays. Speaking of, good motivation to go for the US to go for the group win, as they get an extra day's rest before the round of 16 compared to the runner up.

[stitchface]

One bit of good news is that Weston McKennie, who is recovering from a broken left foot, expects to be back in full training with club side Juventus by the end of April. He remains hopeful that he'll get some club games in, with the hope that those matches will get him ready for the Nations League.

[bukie]

https://twitter.com/rwohan/status/1509940119821643778

[Banedon]