soccer soccer soccer

[Transmogrified Tiger]

get one more GD the rest of the night(and Panama is eliminated if they don't win so there will be copious chances) and CR has to beat the US by 6. The US has allowed 7 total goals in 12+ games.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

If I didn't know any better, this game looks like U17 quality play. I'll take a win tho.

[UMFan83]

get one more GD the rest of the night(and Panama is eliminated if they don't win so there will be copious chances) and CR has to beat the US by 6. The US has allowed 7 total goals in 12+ games.

 

If that happens do you play the game in Costa Rica with a neutral strategy and then go uber conservative if they go down by a goal or two, or do you bunker from the start?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

get one more GD the rest of the night(and Panama is eliminated if they don't win so there will be copious chances) and CR has to beat the US by 6. The US has allowed 7 total goals in 12+ games.

 

If that happens do you play the game in Costa Rica with a neutral strategy and then go uber conservative if they go down by a goal or two, or do you bunker from the start?

 

I think you just play. The US's defensive excellence comes from squeezing opponents well before they get to the goal so you don't need to bunker or go to 5 in the back, but you also don't need to try to press a bunch of goal kicks either. Once you get into the 2nd half or so maybe you drop lines a bit or add another CB, but even if the US is uncertain to win @CR in neutral circumstances, they are abundantly good enough to not lose by 6.

[soccer10k]

get one more GD the rest of the night(and Panama is eliminated if they don't win so there will be copious chances) and CR has to beat the US by 6. The US has allowed 7 total goals in 12+ games.

 

If that happens do you play the game in Costa Rica with a neutral strategy and then go uber conservative if they go down by a goal or two, or do you bunker from the start?

 

I think you just play. The US's defensive excellence comes from squeezing opponents well before they get to the goal so you don't need to bunker or go to 5 in the back, but you also don't need to try to press a bunch of goal kicks either. Once you get into the 2nd half or so maybe you drop lines a bit or add another CB, but even if the US is uncertain to win @CR in neutral circumstances, they are abundantly good enough to not lose by 6.

 

And there will be plenty of chances to hit CR on the counter if they’re really going all out to try to beat us by 5. We should be able to get some good chances on that alone and I’d bet on us finding the net in that scenario.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Gotta think really hard about getting Pulisic, Adams, Musah, and Jedi off reasonably quickly, if not at the half

 

edit: maybe Roldan, Morris, and Bello at the half, Acosta around the 60 min mark

[wolf stansson]

Roldan is an especially great call. This second half is going to be weird, and Roldan is great in that kind of CONCACHAOS

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Roldan is an especially great call. This second half is going to be weird, and Roldan is great in that kind of CONCACHAOS

 

Also he's really good at playing passes in behind, which is gonna be on the whole half and part of why I suggest Morris instead of Reyna

[Transmogrified Tiger]

goodness gracious gio

[bukie]

Pulisic determined to make Costa Rica score 10 on Wednesday.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[bukie]

Not great from Acosta and Long, Panama gets one back. Just can't let them get two back.

[UMFan83]

Inconsequential goal by Panama right?

[bukie]

Inconsequential goal by Panama right?

Yeah, math is the same for a 4 or 5 goal margin.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Inconsequential goal by Panama right?

 

Yep, CR still needs to win by 6. Another Panama goal would make it 5.

[bukie]

There it is, 5-1 final. Just need to avoid complete disaster going into Costa Rica. They need 6 to advance ahead of the US.

 

However, US is historically terrible in Costa Rica, having lost their last 5 by an average of more than 3-1.

[UMFan83]

How about the US loses to Costa Rico 3-0 and Mexico loses their match 2-0?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How about the US loses to Costa Rico 3-0 and Mexico loses their match 2-0?

 

Alternatively, Netherlands draw/lose their friendly w/ Germany tomorrow, Mexico lose/draw, US win, North Macedonia win -> US to Pot 1

[UMFan83]

 

This is a good point. Although I'm sure CR would love to win 6-0, they have to be realistic and play for the best shot to get in, which would be the playoff. Apparently yellows from qualifying carry over so it makes sense to sit any of their guys who have yellows during WCQ

[stitchface]

the yellow card rule is absurd. two yellows in 12 games? No wonder the refs never give any.

 

Gio is really really good. What a difference he makes.

 

I thought De La Torre and Shaq did nothing to hurt their chances. De La Torre looked really steady and Moore for sure no worse than Cannon or Yedlin.

 

Robinson's crosses have improved. He, and everyone else, need to stop giving the ball away in their own end though - better teams will punish that.

[bukie]

the yellow card rule is absurd. two yellows in 12 games? No wonder the refs never give any.

 

Gio is really really good. What a difference he makes.

 

I thought De La Torre and Shaq did nothing to hurt their chances. De La Torre looked really steady and Moore for sure no worse than Cannon or Yedlin.

 

Robinson's crosses have improved. He, and everyone else, need to stop giving the ball away in their own end though - better teams will punish that.

14 games! It was absurd when it was the hex and 10 games. It should be 2 in 3 games, maybe 2 in 4.

 

VAR made a significant difference last night, as Panama got caught super early trying to CONCACAF it up, and quickly had no answer for the US attack.

[bukie]

Draw coming up Friday.

 

Here are the 20 spots clinched so far (FIFA rankings as of Feb):

 

Qatar (52)

Belgium (1)

Brazil (2)

France (3)

Argentina (4)

England (5)

Spain (7)

Denmark (9)

Netherlands (10)

Germany (11)

Switzerland (14)

Croatia (15)

Uruguay (16)

Iran (21)

Japan (23)

Serbia (25)

South Korea (29)

Canada (33)

Ecuador (44)

Saudi Arabia (53)

 

The spots that are left (favorites for the spot):

CONCACAF-2 (Mexico)

CONCACAF-3 (USA)

CAF-1 (Senegal)

CAF-2 (Algeria)

CAF-3 (Nigeria)

CAF-4 (Morocco)

CAF-5 (Tunisia)

UEFA-11 (Wales)

UEFA-12 (Sweden)

UEFA-13 (Portugal)

Playoff-1 (AFC-5/CONMEBOL-5)

Playoff-2 (OFC-1/CONCACAF-4)

 

Three of the spots won't be decided until June, so the draw will automatically put them in pot 4 (two playoffs and UEFA-11, which involves Ukraine who can't play right now for obvious reasons).

 

If the higher ranked teams finish out the other spots, here is what the draw will look like:

 

Pot 1: Qatar, Belgium, Brazil, France, Argentina, England, Spain, Portugal

Pot 2: Denmark, Netherlands, Germany, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Croatia, Uruguay

Pot 3: Sweden, Senegal, Iran, Japan, Morocco, Serbia, South Korea, Nigeria

Pot 4: Canada, Tunisia, Algeria, Ecuador, Saudi Arabia, UEFA-11 (Wales), Playoff-1(Peru/Australia), Playoff-2 (Costa Rica)

 

Canada is obviously trying to sneak above one team into pot 3, or hoping North Macedonia wins or Nigeria loses. I don't know if the USA has enough points to gain where they can pass 4 teams to sneak into pot 1, even if Portugal loses (I think Denmark is in position now regardless of results this week).

 

No matter where the US gets drawn, they should be favored to advance from their group. Worst case scenario is probably getting Brazil/Argentina, then a UEFA pot 3 and the UEFA playoff pot 4 team, and even then, they're the second best team in that group.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Canada is obviously trying to sneak above one team into pot 3, or hoping North Macedonia wins or Nigeria loses. I don't know if the USA has enough points to gain where they can pass 4 teams to sneak into pot 1, even if Portugal loses (I think Denmark is in position now regardless of results this week).

 

This site/twitter account seems to be the best bet for the conditional projections as it relates to pots.

 

 

However, they note later that a couple of these permutations are extremely thin margins, so the chances could be more or less with other combinations of results this week

 

[wolf stansson]

My World Cup draw knowledge is rusty, having not thought about it since Couva. If Mexico is in pot 1, are we eligible to draw into their group or are there rules that would prevent it because we’re from the same confederation?

[bukie]

My World Cup draw knowledge is rusty, having not thought about it since Couva. If Mexico is in pot 1, are we eligible to draw into their group or are there rules that would prevent it because we’re from the same confederation?

No teams from the same confederation in the same group aside from UEFA doubling up by necessity.