Minor League Musings

[CubsWin]

We got Law's thoughts on Marquez above, but he also did a write up on Ryan Lawlor, who put together one of the most dominant stat lines of any Cubs minor league pitcher this season as a reliever. Didn't really have any report on his stuff until now.

 

Another Cubs lefty, Ryan Lawlor, came in later in the game and showed two above-average pitches as well, with a fastball at 93-95 mph and 11/5 curveball coming in at 79-80. He has a high three-quarters arm slot and hides the ball fairly well. He did show a changeup at 86 but only used it away to right-handed batters.

 

That'll work as a lefty reliever. He may have emerged as a possible Iowa shuttle option in the near future which would be a nice result for guy picked up off the scrap heap. He was dominant in the Carolina League (which is notoriously pitcher friendly), so we'll have to see how he handles AA in 2020.

 

Lawlor, 25, was a college junior draftee in the 8th round in 2015 and was mostly used as a starter before his release from the Braves org after 2017. He pitched in Indy ball until the Cubs signed him in July of '18. This year, he started off well in South Bend (.154 BAA, 1.83 ERA, 24 Ks in 19.2 IP) but walked 7 in his first 3 games. He settled in a bit after that and was quickly promoted to Myrtle Beach where he put up:

 

35.2 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 61 K, .177 BAA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.02 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 1.97 xFIP.

 

With those numbers coming against High-A hitters while 25 years old, he's not an exciting prospect. But he is a guy who came out of nowhere (Cubs pitching lab?) to be a possible useful depth shuttle arm. A 93-95 mph fastball from the left side with the ability to miss bats is worth giving a follow.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

We got Law's thoughts on Marquez above, but he also did a write up on Ryan Lawlor, who put together one of the most dominant stat lines of any Cubs minor league pitcher this season as a reliever. Didn't really have any report on his stuff until now.

 

Another Cubs lefty, Ryan Lawlor, came in later in the game and showed two above-average pitches as well, with a fastball at 93-95 mph and 11/5 curveball coming in at 79-80. He has a high three-quarters arm slot and hides the ball fairly well. He did show a changeup at 86 but only used it away to right-handed batters.

 

That'll work as a lefty reliever. He may have emerged as a possible Iowa shuttle option in the near future which would be a nice result for guy picked up off the scrap heap. He was dominant in the Carolina League (which is notoriously pitcher friendly), so we'll have to see how he handles AA in 2020.

 

Lawlor, 25, was a college junior draftee in the 8th round in 2015 and was mostly used as a starter before his release from the Braves org after 2017. He pitched in Indy ball until the Cubs signed him in July of '18. This year, he started off well in South Bend (.154 BAA, 1.83 ERA, 24 Ks in 19.2 IP) but walked 7 in his first 3 games. He settled in a bit after that and was quickly promoted to Myrtle Beach where he put up:

 

35.2 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 61 K, .177 BAA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.02 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 1.97 xFIP.

 

With those numbers coming against High-A hitters while 25 years old, he's not an exciting prospect. But he is a guy who came out of nowhere (Cubs pitching lab?) to be a possible useful depth shuttle arm. A 93-95 mph fastball from the left side with the ability to miss bats is worth giving a follow.

 

I've seen him mentioned a few times during the season as someone to watch and those times, the reports were mid-90s with a good curve too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Who else is ahead of Davis on that MWL list? Alek Thomas....Xavier Edwards....Will Benson...Dominic Fletcher?...Joey Cantillo? Seth Corry?

 

1. Wander Franco

2. Matthew Liberatore

3. Brailyn Márquez

4. Shane Baz

5. Seth McClanahan

6. Xavier Edwards

7. Tyler Freeman

8. Nolan Gorman

9. Alek Thomas

10. Brennen Davis

 

Yes, Tampa had the other 4 in the top 5. Neither Dominic Fletcher nor Seth Corry made the top 20.

[CubsWin]

We got Law's thoughts on Marquez above, but he also did a write up on Ryan Lawlor, who put together one of the most dominant stat lines of any Cubs minor league pitcher this season as a reliever. Didn't really have any report on his stuff until now.

 

Another Cubs lefty, Ryan Lawlor, came in later in the game and showed two above-average pitches as well, with a fastball at 93-95 mph and 11/5 curveball coming in at 79-80. He has a high three-quarters arm slot and hides the ball fairly well. He did show a changeup at 86 but only used it away to right-handed batters.

 

That'll work as a lefty reliever. He may have emerged as a possible Iowa shuttle option in the near future which would be a nice result for guy picked up off the scrap heap. He was dominant in the Carolina League (which is notoriously pitcher friendly), so we'll have to see how he handles AA in 2020.

 

Lawlor, 25, was a college junior draftee in the 8th round in 2015 and was mostly used as a starter before his release from the Braves org after 2017. He pitched in Indy ball until the Cubs signed him in July of '18. This year, he started off well in South Bend (.154 BAA, 1.83 ERA, 24 Ks in 19.2 IP) but walked 7 in his first 3 games. He settled in a bit after that and was quickly promoted to Myrtle Beach where he put up:

 

35.2 IP, 23 H, 1 HR, 13 BB, 61 K, .177 BAA, 1.01 WHIP, 2.02 ERA, 1.59 FIP, 1.97 xFIP.

 

With those numbers coming against High-A hitters while 25 years old, he's not an exciting prospect. But he is a guy who came out of nowhere (Cubs pitching lab?) to be a possible useful depth shuttle arm. A 93-95 mph fastball from the left side with the ability to miss bats is worth giving a follow.

 

I've seen him mentioned a few times during the season as someone to watch and those times, the reports were mid-90s with a good curve too.

I guess I missed those reports. I followed his performance in box scores but missed the scouting numbers. I'll def watch a few games of his next season in AA.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Dan (Lansing): Brennen Davis oozes projection and tools so I was surprised to see him at #10 but I understand why considering how stacked the MWL is this year. Considering how quickly he acclimated for a raw talent could he be a top 100 guy by mid season next year?

 

 

Emily Waldon: Brennan was a lot of fun to see this year. His placement wasn't by any means a knock to his projection. I think it came down to how competitive the league proved to be this season. One aspect I really enjoyed was how he seems to sharpen as his surroundings get more challenging. Sharp kid with a bright future.

 

Carol (South Bend): What happened to Brailyn Marquez during the season. Did he do anything different that helped him take off or did he just gain experience?

 

Emily Waldon: With a lethal profile like that of Marquez, it's about channeling what he already has. His fastball easily touches triple digits but can be a bit unpredictable at times. If the Cubs are able to pace him and channel his mix, there is a ton of projection.

[Bertz]

Woah, did not realize Emily Waldon started writing for BA. Glad that she's going to be writing about more than just Tigers prospects now.

[Hrubes20]

Ewww...I'd complain more about a pre-injured college pitcher (McLanahan) or Freeman but it's A ball. I honestly thought Davis would be higher. The guys I'd put over him are Franco, Edwards, Thomas, Gorman, Benson maybe, probably Liberatore and Baz...So as low as 8th as high as 4th

 

Maybe it's my hatred of the Shitbirds that is clouding my judgement, but I'm just not as high on Gorman as most. That swing and miss in his game is ugly; light tower power or not.

[Brian]

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[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's not doing a DSL top 20? I could have sworn they did every year...Guess I'll have to wait on their book for anything on Pinango, who made their updated 30 this summer IIRC. I want to know more about Morel's brother Rafael too, seems like a more polished/skilled hitter than Christopher at the same stage and hopefully is similarly slick and fun to watch...BA seemed like the most likely of the pubs to say anything on either since they had Pinango as a guy to watch in the league during preseason

 

They release their DSL Top 20 in spring of the following year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ewww...I'd complain more about a pre-injured college pitcher (McLanahan) or Freeman but it's A ball. I honestly thought Davis would be higher. The guys I'd put over him are Franco, Edwards, Thomas, Gorman, Benson maybe, probably Liberatore and Baz...So as low as 8th as high as 4th

 

Maybe it's my hatred of the horsefeathers that is clouding my judgement, but I'm just not as high on Gorman as most. That swing and miss in his game is ugly; light tower power or not.

 

Same. I am not at all high on Gorman for the same reason.

 

They have a really good one in Dylan Carlson, sadly.

[Cubswin11]

Best case scenario (95%+) for Brennen Davis = Andrew McCutchen?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Sure, he may be that good 1 out of 20 times

That’s because 10-15 of the 20 times he’s gonna be Mookie

[Bertz]

A lot of big ideas in here, most of them good IMO

 

[Bertz]

I'm really excited by the catching pipeline as well. I tend to view catchers through a lens very similar to TINSTAAP, so volume is key. Between Amaya, Pereda, and those two guys at the lower levels hopefully we've got depth at the position for a while, even if we end up dealing Willson somewhere.

[Cubswin11]

I'm really excited by the catching pipeline as well. I tend to view catchers through a lens very similar to TINSTAAP, so volume is key. Between Amaya, Pereda, and those two guys at the lower levels hopefully we've got depth at the position for a while, even if we end up dealing Willson somewhere.

Yeah catchers are probably the next most volatile prospect class next to pitchers but it also seems like we do an above average job of developing them and it’s exciting we seem to have a strong pipeline with a good development track record.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I'm really excited by the catching pipeline as well. I tend to view catchers through a lens very similar to TINSTAAP, so volume is key. Between Amaya, Pereda, and those two guys at the lower levels hopefully we've got depth at the position for a while, even if we end up dealing Willson somewhere.

 

Will be interesting to see if the Cubs add Pereda to the 40-man. I'd do it at the expense of Taylor Davis.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Well, that’s interesting

 

[Bertz]

I'm really excited by the catching pipeline as well. I tend to view catchers through a lens very similar to TINSTAAP, so volume is key. Between Amaya, Pereda, and those two guys at the lower levels hopefully we've got depth at the position for a while, even if we end up dealing Willson somewhere.

 

Will be interesting to see if the Cubs add Pereda to the 40-man. I'd do it at the expense of Taylor Davis.

 

If that whole "best defensive C in the minors" thing is even close to true they've got to. There's plenty of space on the 40 man.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/10062019/projected-cubs-post-2019-world-series-roster

 

Speaking of the 40 man, AZ Phil has us at 33 spots on the 40 man filled heading into the offseason (he technically said 32, but he also wrongly thinks we're going to decline Q's option). Russell's a safe bet to go, and I also count 5 guys who are out of MiLB options and questionable to make the opening day roster: Mills, Underwood, Hultzen, Kemp, and Webster. I'd assume two or three of those guys don't make it to ST, that effectively leaves us at an even 30.

 

That should give us ~7 spots we can use to protect guys for the Rule 5. Amaya, Rea, and Tyson Miller seem like locks IMO. Then probably Pereda and Higgins, and two out of Mekkes/Minch/Swarmer?

[Hrubes20]

 

- The Cubs have been crushing it in the IFA world in recent years, coming soon, but one bonus baby that did not hit the ground running was Jose Lopez CF. He missed the AZL cut, got hurt, opted for a no contact version of offense in the DSL, came in below average on IsoSLG in the DSL...Obviously he will get his chances to develop his upside potential all the way to it's max ceiling and the DSL is not a kiss of death, but I had higher hopes. I was hoping for a LHH Victor Robles-y type, woof, thought he'd easily be the best 2018 IFA hitter but both Morel and Pinango way outdid him

 

 

He was a disappointment for me as well. Never great when a high profile IFA signing doesn't hit well in the DSL.

[Bertz]

 

This is great, and Bryan Smith is awesome.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

This is great, and Bryan Smith is awesome.

 

Fun...I think Jensen opens in MB next year and their rotation looks like:

 

Jensen

Marquez

Thompson

Carrera

Sanders

 

to open the year with Little as the piggyback guy to Thompson and/or Sanders hopefully not for long. McAvene's a good WC too, he's probably good enough to skip SB too but yeah I'd lean towards him opening the year in SB. Albertos at MB makes sense to me. Jake Slaughter should get an A ball job over Byrd...Wouldn't be surprised to see Ocampo in SB...

 

SB rotation something like:

 

McAvene

Franklin

Clarke/Nahas

Ocampo

Cruz

 

That AAA pitching staff looks useful

 

Yeah, this is great.

 

I think Marquez (Tennessee vs MB) and Jensen (MB vs SB) will be the most interesting decisions next spring, unless someone surprises.

[Post Count Padder]

Glad they got re-signed. Hoping Black and Hagerty make it. Burks should be good CF depth at some point. And I still have hopes de la Cruz becomes an interesting reliever for us.

[Bear Cub]

Carlos Sepulveda is having a nice winter in Mexico.

[Bertz]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

Just wanted to say Jay Chandrasekhar is a family friend of mine. And he's a Cubs fan.

[CubsWin]

Somebody needs to talk Tom off the ledge. The Rays just selected one of his favorite sleepers, Faustino Carrera, in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft.

 

It'll be okay, buddy. Don't do anything drastic.