Minor League Musings

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

 

[Bertz]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7504201/2026/08/11/cubs-catchers-miguel-amaya-owen-ayers/

Sharma makes it sound like we're probably going to see Ayers as a September callup

[Jason Ross]

48 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7504201/2026/08/11/cubs-catchers-miguel-amaya-owen-ayers/

Sharma makes it sound like we're probably going to see Ayers as a September callup

What a wild ride he's been on. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Good. No roster ramifications. Get him some experience in a pennant race.

[craig]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7504201/2026/08/11/cubs-catchers-miguel-amaya-owen-ayers/

Sharma makes it sound like we're probably going to see Ayers as a September callup

I think that's a **very** bad idea, until/unless there is Kelly/Amaya injury.  There's going to be a lockout next year, perhaps a long, very long, one.  I'd like to see Ayers keep developing.  Keep practicing his defense.  Confirm that he can hit next year against AAA pitching.  

Bringing him up for September, just to watch life in the majors and how professional the big-leaguers are, that will lock him out of the minors next season.  Not worth it.  

I have no argument with bringing him in a non-roster capacity.  Hang out in the clubhouse, watch and hang with Bregman and Hoerner, see how Kelly and Amaya prepare and do their meetings, etc..  But don't put him on active roster that costs him the lockout.  

Edited August 11 by craig

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, craig said:

There's going to be a lockout next year, perhaps a long, very long, one.

It's exceedingly unlikely that the lockout is all that long and the team shouldn't operate their roster in a way where they're worse off when the far more likely thing happens.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's exceedingly unlikely that the lockout is all that long and the team shouldn't operate their roster in a way where they're worse off when the far more likely thing happens.

I disagree. I wouldn’t put him on the 40 man until they had to. I would rather know he is going to get AB next season, lock out or not. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I disagree. I wouldn’t put him on the 40 man until they had to. I would rather know he is going to get AB next season, lock out or not. 

I am....not surprised that this is your take

[Jason Ross]

I understand that there is a possibility that the MLB season simply doesn't happen. It is an outcome that is within possibility. But I also think it's a very unlikely one and if we take a step back we begin to see how much the MLB ownership has a vested interest in making sure that isn't the case. They are a group who has constantly cared about now more than future dollars. Losing a full season, even in the name of a cap is just not how these people operate. 

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I am....not surprised that this is your take

What is that supposed to mean? I don’t think him getting a few AB in September is worth a roster spot being taken on the 40 man next year. Plus if the lock out last long he loses valuable time next spring. 

Edited August 11 by Rcal10

[CaliforniaRaisin]

53 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I understand that there is a possibility that the MLB season simply doesn't happen. It is an outcome that is within possibility. But I also think it's a very unlikely one and if we take a step back we begin to see how much the MLB ownership has a vested interest in making sure that isn't the case. They are a group who has constantly cared about now more than future dollars. Losing a full season, even in the name of a cap is just not how these people operate. 

Especially with the TV deals up after 2027.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Noah Edders and Anuhar García to South Bend.

[craig]

47 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What is that supposed to mean? I don’t think him getting a few AB in September is worth a roster spot being taken on the 40 man next year. Plus if the lock out last long he loses valuable time next spring. 

Yeah, lots of space for different opinions.  Mine is that he's not going to gain as much from seven September AB's, as the AB's he'll lose from missing spring training, and from missing whatever portion of April/May/June/July does get lost.  I just figure getting a full minor-league season next year (until such point as a callup makes sense) is more valuable than a handful of September AB's.  

Most of the learning by being up with the big-league team could be learned by being invited up to experience the team life, but without needing to actually be rostered.  

 

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, craig said:

Yeah, lots of space for different opinions.  Mine is that he's not going to gain as much from seven September AB's, as the AB's he'll lose from missing spring training, and from missing whatever portion of April/May/June/July does get lost.  I just figure getting a full minor-league season next year (until such point as a callup makes sense) is more valuable than a handful of September AB's.  

Most of the learning by being up with the big-league team could be learned by being invited up to experience the team life, but without needing to actually be rostered.  

 

I’m not surprised that is your opinion. 😅 JK. I agree. 

[Corbi296]

8 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Good. No roster ramifications. Get him some experience in a pennant race.

Plenty of roster ramifications. He would need a 40 man spot at a time when he doesn’t need to be elevated. That will exacerbate the roster crunch at a time when the Cubs will likely need to clear 40 man spots for Brown,, Miller and possibly Steele to come off the 60 Day DL. Also, if he gets elevated to the 40 man roster for a September call up,, Ayers will be ineligible to report next Spring in the likely event of a lockout. I don’t think it’s worth it unless they think he can contribute on the field in the playoffs. That’s unlikely in my view. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Corbi296 said:

Plenty of roster ramifications. He would need a 40 man spot at a time when he doesn’t need to be elevated. That will exacerbate the roster crunch at a time when the Cubs will likely need to clear 40 man spots for Brown,, Miller and possibly Steele to come off the 60 Day DL. Also, if he gets elevated to the 40 man roster for a September call up,, Ayers will be ineligible to report next Spring in the likely event of a lockout. I don’t think it’s worth it unless they think he can contribute on the field in the playoffs. That’s unlikely in my view. 

One thing we have to keep in mind; the Cubs are *very* big on the soft skills. This includes things like letting rookies come up and spend time with players and the club that they plan on being there next year. They have been, at times, more than willing to let a rookie hang out with the club on the bench for a few weeks (much the chagrin of fans). Getting Ayers up in September is likely as much about 2026 as it is about their 2027 plans; getting him to work on the side with pitchers that he will catch. 

It's not the same, but it's been reported that Tatsuya Imai has struggled in Houston, in part, to adjusting to the organization. Maybe that's an Imai thing, but the Cubs have very much valued ensuring their Japanese players come over and get the all-star experience in how they adjust to life in a new part of the world. It very much could also be a Houston thing, too.

It's these soft skills the org believes in. So while there are some roster ramifications if the organization is telling you that they are more interested in getting Ayers here for a month than worrying about a fringe 40-man add...it's probably worth seeing that to them, that month for Ayers is more valuable. And likely signals how they feel about him once again. And considering that the Cubs have done a great job bringing along young players recently, probably worth it to defer to them on this. 

To be fair I didn't expect him to be on the 40-man by September myself a bit ago. Based on how the club acted at the deadline, however and how they treated him in trade talks, this isn't that shocking any more. I'm fairly convinced this organization is very, very high on him. 

[craig]

I appreciate the soft-skills approach, and calling guys up for a while before you're actually going to use them.  Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos, those all seemed appropriate.  I think it's smart, given that we don't use 26th man much anyway.  I just think the balance of values in Ayers case, the developmental costs and the 40-man costs outweigh the gains given the circumstances.  But I'm not the boss, Hoyer and Hawkins will balance their values and make their decision.  

 

[Funky-daddy]

Seems to have hit a little snag the last few days. Will be interesting to see how he adjusts

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, craig said:

I appreciate the soft-skills approach, and calling guys up for a while before you're actually going to use them.  Caissie, Alcantara, Triantos, those all seemed appropriate.  I think it's smart, given that we don't use 26th man much anyway.  I just think the balance of values in Ayers case, the developmental costs and the 40-man costs outweigh the gains given the circumstances.  But I'm not the boss, Hoyer and Hawkins will balance their values and make their decision.  

 

I think we over value what two or three weeks of PAs does for a kid. If the Cubs are operating on August 31st under the notion that Owen Ayers is going to be apart of the catching tandem at the MLB level in 2027, I doubt that's going to change based on two weeks. That decision is based on a hell of a lot more than a few weeks and will have already been made.

As well, not all development shows up in a box score. I'll share an anecdote I've been told about him: he locks himself in the Trajekt machine and just hits off of Misiorwski over, and over, and over. He can do that in Chicago too. It's not *exactly* like a PA but that's real learning off real tough pitching parameters. For the unaware, Trajekt recreates any pitchers motion and stuff. So it isn't hitting off a human, but its probably the next best thing on the planet. Plug in Misiorwski and it's coming in 100mph and his slider shape from his arm angle and release point. These things are wild. There's real value in that. 

Mostly, I think we should remember that there are more than one ways to skin a cat.  It feels like visible development happens when a kid is in Iowa because we can turn on MiLB.TV and see it. We can't see Owen doing the Trajekt or working with pitchers with the Cubs for September...but I'd argue that's still development. And it takes a shift in thinking a bit to maybe see that and the Cubs' perspective. 

As it pertains to the 40-man, I used to worry about that a lot more in the past. But every year we get worried about whether or not the Cubs will add a fringe-guy, and then when they don't people panic. Michael Arias. Alexander Canario. Where are both of those guys today? How many posts panicking about them were made here, on reddit, X, bluesky? They may get burned on that one day, but most of that hand-wringing is wasted breath. There is a reason the guy they end up not adding wasn't an automatic add; they're fringe prospects to begin with. It isn't like the Cubs are exposing Josiah Hartshorn. It's usually a guy who's ranked like 23rd in the system. 

For a TL;DR...it's a lot of words to say; I wouldn't worry. If the Cubs add Ayers, I'd be more excited about how the Cubs feel about a 19th round pick that what it means about the 46th best player in the organization. Whomever that might be. 

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

I think we over value what two or three weeks of PAs does for a kid. If the Cubs are operating on August 31st under the notion that Owen Ayers is going to be apart of the catching tandem at the MLB level in 2027, I doubt that's going to change based on two weeks. That decision is based on a hell of a lot more than a few weeks and will have already been made.

As well, not all development shows up in a box score. I'll share an anecdote I've been told about him: he locks himself in the Trajekt machine and just hits off of Misiorwski over, and over, and over. He can do that in Chicago too. It's not *exactly* like a PA but that's real learning off real tough pitching parameters. For the unaware, Trajekt recreates any pitchers motion and stuff. So it isn't hitting off a human, but its probably the next best thing on the planet. Plug in Misiorwski and it's coming in 100mph and his slider shape from his arm angle and release point. These things are wild. There's real value in that. 

Mostly, I think we should remember that there are more than one ways to skin a cat.  It feels like visible development happens when a kid is in Iowa because we can turn on MiLB.TV and see it. We can't see Owen doing the Trajekt or working with pitchers with the Cubs for September...but I'd argue that's still development. And it takes a shift in thinking a bit to maybe see that and the Cubs' perspective. 

As it pertains to the 40-man, I used to worry about that a lot more in the past. But every year we get worried about whether or not the Cubs will add a fringe-guy, and then when they don't people panic. Michael Arias. Alexander Canario. Where are both of those guys today? How many posts panicking about them were made here, on reddit, X, bluesky? They may get burned on that one day, but most of that hand-wringing is wasted breath. There is a reason the guy they end up not adding wasn't an automatic add; they're fringe prospects to begin with. It isn't like the Cubs are exposing Josiah Hartshorn. It's usually a guy who's ranked like 23rd in the system. 

For a TL;DR...it's a lot of words to say; I wouldn't worry. If the Cubs add Ayers, I'd be more excited about how the Cubs feel about a 19th round pick that what it means about the 46th best player in the organization. Whomever that might be. 

I’m not worried one way or the other on Ayers. If the Cubs bring him up, that is fine. If they decide not to that is also fine. But my personal opinion is they won’t. With a potential lock out next year I think they would rather know he is getting regular AB during the lock out. What is exciting is they are even thinking about it with a guy they drafted a couple of years ago in the 19rh round. I trust the FO to do what is best for Ayers. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not worried one way or the other on Ayers. If the Cubs bring him up, that is fine. If they decide not to that is also fine. But my personal opinion is they won’t. With a potential lock out next year I think they would rather know he is getting regular AB during the lock out. What is exciting is they are even thinking about it with a guy they drafted a couple of years ago in the 19rh round. I trust the FO to do what is best for Ayers. 

I can tell you this: the behind the scenes chatter on Ayers very much is in the vein of what Sharma said. This team adores Owen Ayers. Sharma also wouldn't say the Cubs were considering it if they weren't. 

Maybe they won't. Maybe they will. I cannot tell you one way or another. But I think the lockout thing is absolutely not going to be their reasoning. The chances we have no baseball are incredibly overblown. I think that's like a 5% outcome. 

[craig]

9 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

...I'll share an anecdote I've been told about him: he locks himself in the Trajekt machine and just hits off of Misiorwski over, and over, and over. He can do that in Chicago too. It's not *exactly* like a PA but that's real learning off real tough pitching parameters. For the unaware, Trajekt recreates any pitchers motion and stuff. So it isn't hitting off a human, but its probably the next best thing on the planet. Plug in Misiorwski and it's coming in 100mph and his slider shape from his arm angle and release point. These things are wild. There's real value in that. 

Mostly, I think we should remember that there are more than one ways to skin a cat.  It feels like visible development happens when a kid is in Iowa because we can turn on MiLB.TV and see it. We can't see Owen doing the Trajekt or working with pitchers with the Cubs for September...but I'd argue that's still development. ...

Just to extend this discussion.  (Discussion, not "argument").  With some questions.  

1. I'm not in the least concerned about losing two weeks of Iowa action in September.  
2. I'm more concerned about the months of spring training and minor-league baseball next season that might be lost to the lockout.  
3. Guessing Trajekt is great for hitting.  I'll defer on whether it's as useful as facing a daily variety of AAA-pitchers next spring.  Do you think it's maybe better than PCL pitching?  Beats me.  Maybe minor-league baseball isn't even needed for player development anymore, if Traject is actually better!  :):)
4. Jason, developmentally, do you think Ayers is further away on the catching side, or on the hitting side?  I'm asking this sincerely.  My presumption has been that he hasn't caught for that many years.  So that getting more reps and calling more pitch sequences and receiving more sliders and recognizing more when-to-challenge pitches is more of a need for him than practicing his hitting.  Am I maybe wrong, and in terms of big-league readiness, his bat needs more work than his defense?  
5. During lockout, is a guy allowed to go to team facilities and use team Trajekt stuff?  Or would he need to connect up with some private source?  Like, could he move to Mesa and get full access, or is he locked out?  (I'd guess locked out).  Maybe move somewhere with Tread or Driveline that has Trajekt?  
6. Google says Traject costs only like $15-20/month.  Can Cubs cover those costs for a prospect during a lockout, or would he need to be paying those out of his own budget, if he wanted his own Trajekt at home?  It's not that bad, really; for him to spend that during lockout, that's a small investment compared to a minimum-wage big-league contract.  So yeah, maybe he will do whatever it takes to ensure full access.  I wonder how many prospects do just pay for their own? 
7. Is there a good Traject-type system for practicing catching and receiving?  

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, craig said:

Just to extend this discussion.  (Discussion, not "argument").  With some questions.  

1. I'm not in the least concerned about losing two weeks of Iowa action in September.  
2. I'm more concerned about the months of spring training and minor-league baseball next season that might be lost to the lockout.  
3. Guessing Trajekt is great for hitting.  I'll defer on whether it's as useful as facing a daily variety of AAA-pitchers next spring.  Do you think it's maybe better than PCL pitching?  Beats me.  Maybe minor-league baseball isn't even needed for player development anymore, if Traject is actually better!  :):)
4. Jason, developmentally, do you think Ayers is further away on the catching side, or on the hitting side?  I'm asking this sincerely.  My presumption has been that he hasn't caught for that many years.  So that getting more reps and calling more pitch sequences and receiving more sliders and recognizing more when-to-challenge pitches is more of a need for him than practicing his hitting.  Am I maybe wrong, and in terms of big-league readiness, his bat needs more work than his defense?  
5. During lockout, is a guy allowed to go to team facilities and use team Trajekt stuff?  Or would he need to connect up with some private source?  Like, could he move to Mesa and get full access, or is he locked out?  (I'd guess locked out).  Maybe move somewhere with Tread or Driveline that has Trajekt?  
6. Google says Traject costs only like $15-20/month.  Can Cubs cover those costs for a prospect during a lockout, or would he need to be paying those out of his own budget, if he wanted his own Trajekt at home?  It's not that bad, really; for him to spend that during lockout, that's a small investment compared to a minimum-wage big-league contract.  So yeah, maybe he will do whatever it takes to ensure full access.  I wonder how many prospects do just pay for their own? 
7. Is there a good Traject-type system for practicing catching and receiving?  

Most of these, I'll be honest and say "I have no idea". Truly. And to be even more frank; I'm not even sure I'd be able to find out! I do think most of the facilities are closed down, but I'd have to imagine the organization has a way to be involved. But I'm guessing.

I'll reiterate: I don't think we need to be worried about losing the 2027 season. The owners have too much vested in that. They have streaming rights that end at the end of 2027. Nothing says "bad bargaining power" than "we just didn't play a game". We're probably going to lose a few games. I think that's reasonable to expect. But I think any fear that 2027 won't happen is going to end up being wasted worrying. While there is a slim possibility that we lose the full year, I think that's a pretty low outcome and I'd rather the Cubs do what they think is best for Owen regardless of that low-percentage outcome. 

As it comes to Ayers, he's definitely more of a work defensively, but that's a lot of just "catchers as a whole". He wasn't always a catcher in college so this is a position he doesn't have as many reps at and he's been in the system only for 2 years. Catching is a tough gig. I can tell you there are some teams in the league who don't believe in his receiving and have him graded as a 1b. I can also tell you the Chicago Cubs believe they have amazing catching coaching and don't find it an issue. We'll see who's right, but the team has done a wonderful job working with Miguel Amaya, I think they made real progress with Ballesteros (though they did not believe he was ever going to get there) and have worked well with Kelly to maximize him. They also identified players like Ariel Armas who still crush it defensively (his bat is just so bad). 

 

[craig]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

...As it comes to Ayers, he's definitely more of a work defensively, but that's a lot of just "catchers as a whole". He wasn't always a catcher in college so this is a position he doesn't have as many reps at and he's been in the system only for 2 years. Catching is a tough gig. I can tell you there are some teams in the league who don't believe in his receiving and have him graded as a 1b. I can also tell you the Chicago Cubs believe they have amazing catching coaching and don't find it an issue. ...

Thanks, helpful.  This kinda captures why I don't want to see him lose any games next spring.  

Spring training starts for catchers in February.  World Series end of October.  8.5 months for a catcher to optimize his craft.  

On lockout I agree that the whole season isn't likely to be lost, for the reasons you gave.  But there's a long continuum between 8.5 months and 0 days.  If the over-under was April 30, 2.5 months from start of spring training, but <1 months of big-league games, I'd guess that it will go longer than that.   You're figuring "a few games", so I'm guessing you're taking well "under" relative to April 30.  We'll see!  Even that would still be 2.5 months of catcher-development time for Ayers that's lost.  And I kinda think the Cubs do a LOT of their skills training in camp, and in those January prospect-camps and stuff.  So even if the lockout ends April 30, I still feel like that's some wasted developmental time. 

That's kinda dumb logic, though, I realize as I write!  Assuming lockout he'll lose February either way, because minor-league camp doesn't until March even if he isn't on 40.  So, an April-30 cba would really only cost him 6-7 weeks if he's on 40. 

I do think it's entirely plausible that the lockout might progress well beyond April 30, though?  We'll see over the next month whether Cubs 40 him, and we'll see next spring/summer how long the cba lasts!  

 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks, helpful.  This kinda captures why I don't want to see him lose any games next spring.  

Spring training starts for catchers in February.  World Series end of October.  8.5 months for a catcher to optimize his craft.  

On lockout I agree that the whole season isn't likely to be lost, for the reasons you gave.  But there's a long continuum between 8.5 months and 0 days.  If the over-under was April 30, 2.5 months from start of spring training, but <1 months of big-league games, I'd guess that it will go longer than that.   You're figuring "a few games", so I'm guessing you're taking well "under" relative to April 30.  We'll see!  Even that would still be 2.5 months of catcher-development time for Ayers that's lost.  And I kinda think the Cubs do a LOT of their skills training in camp, and in those January prospect-camps and stuff.  So even if the lockout ends April 30, I still feel like that's some wasted developmental time. 

That's kinda dumb logic, though, I realize as I write!  Assuming lockout he'll lose February either way, because minor-league camp doesn't until March even if he isn't on 40.  So, an April-30 cba would really only cost him 6-7 weeks if he's on 40. 

I do think it's entirely plausible that the lockout might progress well beyond April 30, though?  We'll see over the next month whether Cubs 40 him, and we'll see next spring/summer how long the cba lasts!  

 

I would be shocked if the league isn't in full swing by May 1st.