Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ethan Hearn to the IL. Sorry, Tom.

[Donzo]

Damn... Well, he reestablished himself. He'll be interesting to follow next year at Tennessee.

He'll need to play like he the last two months. He can't hit .160 with a 40% K rate like he has after promotions.

 

[Donzo]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Shucks, was thinking he’s a good AFL candidate this year too 

Yes... Hopefully that's still in play.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

4 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I saw he got pulled during the White start and hasn’t played since. Shucks, was thinking he’s a good AFL candidate this year too 

Honestly, it felt like he was a slam dunk choice to go to the AFL.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs have two of the top 20 hottest prospects in baseball last week (including the hottest one): https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ranking-the-20-hottest-mlb-prospects-hot-sheet-8-27-24/

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1. Cam Smith, 3B, Cubs 

Team: Low-A Myrtle Beach (Carolina) 
Age: 21 

Why He’s Here: .524/.577/1.429 (11-for-21), 8 R, 1 2B, 0 3B, 6 HR, 11 RBIs, 4 BB, 2 SO, 1-for-1 SB

The Scoop: Smith turned in a week for the ages. The Cubs’ first-round pick homered in all six games of the series at Charleston, and reached base two or more times in five of six games. Smith put on a power show last week putting eight balls in play at 95+ mph with five going for home runs. Smith’s week was so good, the Cubs promoted him to High-A South Bend on Sunday evening. A draft-eligible sophomore who had an excellent 2024 at Florida State, Smith is carrying that momentum into his professional debut. (GP)

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20. Brandon Birdsell, RHP, Cubs

Team: Triple-A Iowa (International)
Age: 24

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 1 GS, 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 SO.

The Scoop: Birdsell earned a promotion to Triple-A Iowa in July, but he found that the new level carries plenty of challenges. In his first three starts, batters hit .410 against him. Birdsell throws plenty of strikes, but his mid-90s fastball doesn’t generally have the life needed to be a swing-and-miss pitch at the top of the zone. Batters hit .548 against his fastball in those first three starts. But this week against Toledo, Birdsell managed to beat hitters in the zone with his fastball, getting 10 swings-and-misses with his heater. It’s a first step, but Birdsell is showing he’s getting acclimated to a tougher level. (JC)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Bertz]

Yeesh BJ Murray

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thought this was a good read about the impact of shrinking the minors:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[chopsx9]

On 8/28/2024 at 12:46 AM, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Thought this was a good read about the impact of shrinking the minors:

 

A trade off was unavoidable.  The fact of the matter is there will be players who would have ended up with Hall of Fame careers that won't get drafted.  Piazza doesn't get drafted - Grace or Sandberg?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

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Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith was the second-highest 2024 draftee in Low-A last week. As you would expect after six consecutive games with a home run, he is now the top-ranked draft pick. He hit six homers in 57 plate appearances before earning a promotion to High-A, hinting at 30-homer potential in the big leagues. That’s supported by his 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (on 30 balls in play). 

Coming out of the draft, we converted his 2024 contact rate at Florida State to be be equivalent to a 72% in the minor leagues and he currently sports a 76% contact rate and an 18% chase rate. Of course, this is an unsustainable heater, but an excellent start to his professional career which will no doubt make him a popular late first-round target in upcoming FYPDs.

 

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Cubs first baseman Jonathan Long is another hot hitter. He hit four home runs in the last week with a 289 wRC+. The 2023 ninth-rounder has been crushing Double-A Tennessee since being promoted at the end of July, to the tune of a 203 wRC+ over 161 plate appearances. Under the hood, his Statcast is quite good, mapping quite closely to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw, with a plus 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average contact and chase. 

Although “traditional” projection models probably have him as a better-than-average MLB bat with power in the 15-to-20 home run range, the pop is a bit lower than expected from someone currently playing mostly first base in the upper minors. From a fantasy perspective that probably lowers him a bit. The underlying metrics, though, suggest that there is more in the tank, and perhaps his past week’s work is evidence that it is starting to actualize. RoboScout will be keeping an eye on him.

 

[Bertz]

So if Long has let's call it 55 grade in game power, it feels like he's probably a MLBer.  Certainly if he can hack it anywhere but 1B.  Something in the Mark Canha neighborhood if things go right?

[craig]

Long will be an interesting one.  He's barely one year into his pro career, so I think there is considerable opportunity for development.  And as a guy who looks productive, I think that should increase organizational interest in developing positional flexibility.  If limited to 1B/PH/DH, I think that's a limited role.  I'd love to see him go to AFL or some place developmental, and give him a bunch of LF/3B action.  No, he's not going to play left like Happ, and even Wisdom-level OF probably is beyond his scope.  But man I'd love to at least give his a shot at some diversification, and some chance to become a bench guy with some flexibility. 

At 15HR, he's only a couple behind Shaw and Moises (17 and 18), and he obviously produced more HR power than popular prospect Alcantra (11). 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Don’t hire GMs from Cleveland unless you want to penny pinch 

 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Don’t hire GMs from Cleveland unless you want to penny pinch 

 

Presumably this is because they feel comfortable with their data-based scouting, hence the Complex Leagues being the ones excluded.  I know a lot of teams moved in this direction ~5 years ago (Houston did it closer to 10) but I thought the pendulum was swinging back towards a blend of data and live-looks.

[CubinNY]

Rocker called up

[CubinNY]

The Biscuits are in the playoffs for the 9th year in a row. I hope the Smokmies beat the Barrons. I'd love to watch them in the championship series. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Twins took this guy in the 6th round and gave him 300k to sign and just released him for re-enacting Space Jam

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

At least Brennen gets a big league paycheck out of all this 

[Donzo]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:22 PM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Twins took this guy in the 6th round and gave him 300k to sign and just released him for re-enacting Space Jam

 

[allen6510w]

21 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I saw this comment in the bullets section of a Nightengale article on Ethan Holliday (link’s in the 2025 draft thread): 

I suspect the age advantage is all but negated by a more strength and conditioning than play and game oriented pro development plan. Interesting

With respect to fewer DR/VZ prospects appearing in the top 100.

Are there fewer prospects from the Dominican Republic/Venezuela or are there just fewer getting recognized early in their minor league careers because of the loss of short-season A.   In the past, some players may have made the top 100 list partly due to appearing on top 10 lists for short-season A leagues that no longer exist. 

In some ways the Arizona League is serving as a short-season league in the new setup because it starts earlier than in past seasons and ends earlier.  This should increase the competition level of the Arizona League and its Florida equivalent ... but the number of opportunities to play has been cut in half. 

I wonder if more DR/VZ players are being held back an extra year in the DSL due to a shortage of state-side playing opportunities.   You wouldn't think this would affect true prospects but perhaps it is difficult to identify the true prospects at such a young age. 

A skeptic could also argue that the decrease in top 100 prospect from DR/VZ could also be due to  ages being more accurately recorded today or to the continuing issues in Venezuela affecting the strength and conditioning of Venezuelan prospects. 

 

[Bertz]

20 hours ago, allen6510w said:

With respect to fewer DR/VZ prospects appearing in the top 100.

Are there fewer prospects from the Dominican Republic/Venezuela or are there just fewer getting recognized early in their minor league careers because of the loss of short-season A.   In the past, some players may have made the top 100 list partly due to appearing on top 10 lists for short-season A leagues that no longer exist. 

In some ways the Arizona League is serving as a short-season league in the new setup because it starts earlier than in past seasons and ends earlier.  This should increase the competition level of the Arizona League and its Florida equivalent ... but the number of opportunities to play has been cut in half. 

I wonder if more DR/VZ players are being held back an extra year in the DSL due to a shortage of state-side playing opportunities.   You wouldn't think this would affect true prospects but perhaps it is difficult to identify the true prospects at such a young age. 

A skeptic could also argue that the decrease in top 100 prospect from DR/VZ could also be due to  ages being more accurately recorded today or to the continuing issues in Venezuela affecting the strength and conditioning of Venezuelan prospects. 

 

I would guess that it's threefold:

1. Losing the A- leagues legitimately sucks.  A lot of 19/20 year olds are in a weird middle ground between Arizona and Low A, and you have to think some of them are being impacted by not having a league actually at their level

2. Anecdotally, I do think fewer super-young IFAs are making the list.  I think, much like how pitching is getting discounted on prospect lists because of risk, fewer Cristian Hernandez types are just being gifted a spot on pure hype.  This is a good thing IMO.

3. Colleges are getting really horsefeathering good at player development.  I think, even setting aside structural MiLB stuff, we're probably in a cycle where domestic amateurs are just simply producing more right now.  This stuff waxes and wanes.  It's worth keeping an eye on and discussing but I don't know that it's yet reached the point of a problem.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

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Yander Maria, RHP, Cubs

Most of the players we’ve focused on so far have been hitters, so let’s close with a young pitching prospect who showed impressive stuff this season. Maria, 17, is 6-foot-4, 200 pounds and signed out of the Dominican Republic in January for $200,000. Even on signing day, that looked like a great value for the Cubs, as Maria had already gone from a pitcher who was in the upper-80s early in 2023 and came into signing day with a fastball that reached the mid-90s. He held that velocity in the DSL over starts of mostly 2-4 innings, pitching at 90-94 mph and reaching 96 mph, with the arm speed and physical projection to one day throw in the upper-90s. He complements a big fastball for his age with a low-to-mid 80s slider with tight spin (typically in the 2,500-2,800 rpm range) and tight lateral break across the zone that misses bats. Like most pitchers at this level, he hasn’t thrown much of a changeup yet, so that pitch will be a focus as he moves up the ladder. Maria posted a 3.98 ERA in 31.1 innings with 34 strikeouts and 24 walks, which included a few rocky outings early on, but he held down a 1.46 ERA over his final eight starts.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/blaine-crim-matt-shaw-headline-10-statcast-standouts-sep-16/

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Matt Shaw, INF, Cubs

Shaw recently cracked the 20/20 mark, and he’s long past due some coverage in this series. The Cubs have targeted college batters with good contact and power metrics, and Shaw is precisely that. He has the defensive versatility to play anywhere in the infield, getting most of his reps at 3B but also seeing time at 2B and SS.

Shaw shows roughly 60-grade power, with a 106 mph 90th EV, though his contact and discipline metrics are below major league average, even against Triple-A pitching. Ideally, you want to see below-average chase rates and above-average in-zone swing rates, but he’s both too passive in-zone and too aggressive out-of-zone. Given his pedigree and track record, my projection is that this will improve as he gets more reps at Triple-A. This sets him up to be a key contributor by May or June of next season as a versatile infielder with a 50 hit/60 power combination. If you play fantasy baseball, he’s probably a sneaky value as a super flex who will contribute across the board in all categories.