Minor League Musings

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not bad for a 20-year old who has yet to pitch in full season ball:

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Great bat flip.

[Cubswin11]

Amaya looks horsefeathering massive

[Cubswin11]

He’s an absolute beast

 

[Cubswin11]

Catcher Cespedes (minus the horses) I will accept no other outcomes.

[Bertz]

Miguel Amaya: Still raking

 

 

I feel like I can talk myself into "actually this season wasn't that bad for him developmentally.". Amaya was up in ML spring training basically the entire time in March. Then he was at the alternate site from day 1, which I think only he, Davis, and Morel can say among notable bats? While the alternate site didn't have "real" games, he got plenty of at bats and got to work with pitchers who were primarily AAA caliber. Now, he's in winter league, which again is typically AA-AAA caliber.

 

You'd probably have preferred he simply get 500 ABs in the Southern League, but probably not by *that* much?

[Bertz]

 

A good, substantive, article from Mooney. Which is definitely not the norm for him. Hits on lots of points, but this stood out:

 

“We’ve definitely pushed and been more accepting of guys trying to increase their velocity,” Hoyer said. “There’s an amount of risk that you want to take on in order to get the most out of guys, right? You don’t want to ever put anyone at risk, but you also don’t want to tread so lightly that you’re not maximizing a guy’s potential. That’s the fine balance we’re always trying to strike when you’re thinking about developing young pitchers.

 

“We had points where we were probably a little bit too conservative, candidly. We probably didn’t push some velocity gains or stuff gains that we probably should have. We’re probably a little bit more aggressive now, but you still have to be cognizant of not breaking guys. That’s always the balance you’re fighting: How much do you push? And what’s too much? But you can’t eliminate the risk in this game. Pitchers have and will always get hurt. It’s just a matter of you don’t want to be so afraid that you leave a lot of potential on the table.”

 

So basically, in the first ~4 years the org drafted a bunch of safe arms who could spin a breaking ball, with the implicit idea that a few would add some velocity and exceed their perceived ceiling. But when they had the opportunity to push guys to add that velocity, they didn't take it like they should have.

[craig]

Tom, thanks for citing that Mooney article with Dorey and Hoyer.

There was a Sharma article on Tuesday with Breslow, too. https://theathletic.com/2277312/2020/12/22/cubs-craig-breslow-pitching-development-philosophy/

 

Breslow talked about "risk", but Hoyer's comments add some clarity, that injury risk is a real consideration. (Obviously muscle memory, performance, and confidence are also factors.)

 

Derek Johnson saw pushing velocity as being an injury-risk. He instructed pitchers to NOT try to throw their hardest, at least below AA. That wasn't just for injury reasons, of course; he wanted guys to throw in a comfort range where they could repeat, control, locate, and where change and breaker delivery could be consistent with fastball.

 

Theo emerged amidst Moneyball thinking, where past statistical data was valued. I suspect he brought that with him to the Cubs, such that when tools and college stats were balanced, his scouts may have tilted that balance a little bit more in the past-stats direction than some other teams, or perhaps than the Cubs now?

 

Pitch lab and spin data change so much. The recent view to tilt that balance more towards pitchers with more tools makes more sense, given the assumption that you can optimize their delivery later, and reshape their breaking repertoire even if it wasn't very good in college.

[craig]

What is the current perspective on Driveline/Pitch-lab's ability to help with command? Is the view that data analysis on delivery, arm slot, release point, weight transfer etc. can result in significant improvements in command, as well as in velocity and stuff?

 

I'm assuming those things can help some, but probably control is largely beyond the reach of pitch lab? Maples is Maples, wild is still going to be wild, right?

 

Jensen, McAvene, Cam Sanders, Burl, Brailyn, Bigge, Bailey Reid, Calloway, Luke Little, Thompson, these guys might all have variably good velocity and overall stuff. Whether any or many will have enough control and command to be big-league excellent, hard to guess, or how much help Cubs coaching will be able to give them in achieving that. Or whether any or many will have enough to pitch rotation versus just relief, as valuable as good relievers may be.

[texascub]

His father,Victor Peciado ,played in the minors for the Yankees in the ‘90s. I can’t find any other “bloodline” connection.

[Bertz]

[Hrubes20]

 

It will be interesting to see how they divvy up the SS reps in the former AZL. Preciado/Made/Morel are all there.

 

Would also like to see Pinango make the jump to full season ball, but that's probably pushing it.

[Hrubes20]

It will be interesting to see how they divvy up the SS reps in the former AZL. Preciado/Made/Morel are all there.

 

Would also like to see Pinango make the jump to full season ball, but that's probably pushing it.

 

Rafael Morel probably won't be a SS for long. While his brother's limited offensively thanks to his approach, Rafael Morel is more physical, less twitchy, and not as good at defense

 

Yeah, I wouldn't at all surprised to see Preciado moved straight to 3B and Morel to 2B, with Made getting the SS reps.

[Hrubes20]

AZPhil is saying he's talked to some scouts outside of the Padres or Cubs organizations who are also really high on Preciado and have him ranked above Howard. I'm thinking it's more to do with them being waaaaaaay too low on Howard than being enamored with Preciado, but interesting to note nonetheless.

[Bertz]

 

I don't like that Miller is currently slated as the 5th or 6th starter, but I love that our Iowa SP depth is finally actually interesting

[craig]

Thanks for that Miller info, that's pretty interesting. Who do you think is in the mix for 5th/6th/7th, of the internal guys? And of those, who do you think might perhaps have the best chance of emerging as a viable not-bad anti-awful guy?

 

1. Lester: Hoyer has mentioned being interested in bringing Lester back. I hate that idea. That's totally Nowacrat trying to win for this year, and even if he might post an ERA <5, (which might be less awful than what the younger internals might do....), that would be totally boring, and would do nothing to create value out of valuelessness. Please don't do this.

 

2. Marquez: I assume Marquez isn't really a spring candidate, correct?

 

3. Colin Rea is still around. It's possible he'd be OK, and may be less awful than the other internal guys. But I don't see a lot of upside or long-term value there. So, not very interested there. But for trying to win the weak central, perhaps he'll get some starts and not kill you.

 

4. Internal D+D guys: I'm thinking Tyson Miller, Corey Abbott, and Keegan Thompson are probably the three D+D guys? Obviously none have big, high-ceiling stuff. Relative to Hendricks, Davies, and Mills, all would be much faster! :) Hard to know what another year of pitch labbing and stuff might have done for any of them.

 

But I'd actually be kinda interested in using this rebuild season to explore whether any of them might actually be surprisingly interesting? **IF** you lucked out and one (or two, or even all three...) emerged as capable rotation guys, having club-controlled depth would be great at minimum wage. I think about the trade and budget capital that was invested in Quintana, Cole Hamels, and lester over 2018-2020. Perhaps Miller or Abbott of Thompson might give you production not so different from that, but at minimum wage, and free up $40M per year for other targets?

 

I'm not saying it's likely that any of these 3 is ever going to establish as a solid, multi-year rotation guy. But if you did luck out and one of them did, it could help the future significantly. So I admit I'd not mind leaving one rotation spot as kind of an audition opportunity for them.

 

5. Combeback/rehab/career-breakout-opportunity guy. I've got to assume Hoyer will bring in some other comeback type guy from outside. In rebuild one, there was Feldman and Maholm.

 

I'd imagine there might be some guys out there who aren't going to get rotation shots with the Yankees or Dodgers or Braves, but who might see the Cubs as an opportunity to build or rebuild their careers? Maholm was a post-surg-rehab guy; Feldman had been kind of a depth guy; Jason Hammel had been an inconsistent but kinda-interesting guy with some upside. I could easily envision Hoyer wanting to take a shot on somebody like that, maybe singular or maybe plural?

 

*IF* you hit on a Hammel/Maholm/Feldman, those guys pitched at a level that could have supported a division-run in the vulnerable central. And *IF* you hit on a Hammel/Maholm/Feldman, each of those turned into trade pieces. (Vizcaino never clicked for the Cubs, but man he looked like a high-ceiling good-risk at the time; and while McKinney never clicked either, he'd been a 1st-round pick the previous year and seemed like a solid prospect at time of acquisition...).

 

I wonder if they have any interest in resigning Chatwood? They invested a lot of cash, and time and development, on him. Before he got hurt last year, I'd thought he looked pretty good. I admit it wouldn't burn me to sign him again, to a cheap two-year deal, or something with option, or whatever. "Cheap" being key, but he's still got some stuff, if healthy.

[Bertz]

I would imagine at the moment the battle for the fifth starter spot would be Rea and Miller fighting it out, with Abbott as someone they would hope is viable around midseason. I'm certain it won't come to that though. There'll be at least one veteran added, possibly more.

 

I'm hoping that they use Rea exclusively out of the bullpen. He looked fantastic in short relief before they started yo-yoing him back and forth. There's clearly merit to taking a finesse guy and letting him air it out to the point he's touching 96. Especially since most of our other relief guys (save Kyle Ryan) are spin or velocity monsters with modest-at-best command.

 

I also HATE the idea of bringing Lester back. There are three things a SP can give you: reliability, upside, and flexibility. Lester gives you reliability in terms of innings, but nothing else. His upside is gone at this point, and because of his status with the org he has a WAY longer leash than his current ability would dictate. It's a recipe for a 5.50 ERA in July still getting run out there every 5th day.

 

My ideal would be to add at least two, ideally all three, of the following:

 

- A super high upside veteran on a pillow deal. James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards, Chris Archer, etc. A guy who, while it's certainly not the mean outcome, could legitimately fill Darvish's hole in the rotation

- Another pre-arb SP with minor league options. Spencer Howard as part of a Contreras deal would probably be my platonic ideal here?

- A decently high floor SP on a Minor league deal. Wade Miley, Gio Gonzalez, and Anibal Sanchez have all paid off huge as MiLB signings in the last few years. Obviously if they're on a minor league deal they're not a guy you can count on, but someone more likely to give you 5+ IP/start and an ERA south of 5 than Tyson Miller is

 

You open 2021 with this rotation:

 

Hendricks

James Paxton type

Davies

Alzolay

Mills

 

But this rotation is certainly not going to go 162. Paxton and Alzolay are severe injury risks, while Mills and Alzolay are significant performance risks. You run these top 5 guys out there, but between injuries, ineffectiveness, plus some planned stretches of utilizing a 6 man rotation, you will give plenty of starts to the Iowa guys. Likely enough to figure out which one (or hopefully two!) of the Iowa kids are ready to perform moving forward. I'd love to have 4 spots pretty well figured out going into next offseason. From there bring in another quality vet, and have Brailyn lurking as the injury/performance replacement.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I really hope they just move Rea to the bullpen full time, I think there’s a very solid reliever in him potentially and the SP ship seems to have sailed. As you mentioned he had that velo bump out of the pen and think his cutter also rated really well as a 1 IP guy.

[CubsWin]

Yeah I really hope they just move Rea to the bullpen full time, I think there’s a very solid reliever in him potentially and the SP ship seems to have sailed. As you mentioned he had that velo bump out of the pen and think his cutter also rated really well as a 1 IP guy.

This.

[CubsWin]

I would imagine at the moment the battle for the fifth starter spot would be Rea and Miller fighting it out, with Abbott as someone they would hope is viable around midseason.

Who do you think is in the mix for 5th/6th/7th, of the internal guys? And of those, who do you think might perhaps have the best chance of emerging as a viable not-bad anti-awful guy?

My sense is that Abbott is ahead of those two (with Rea hopefully out of consideration for multi-inning work). Miller got the call last season, but that was only because Abbott was dealing with injury/illness at the beginning of 2nd spring training and got off to a slow start.

 

If everyone is healthy and performing up to their capabilities, I'd put the in-house depth starters in the order of:

 

Cory Abbott

Gray Fenter

Tyson Miller

Keegan Thompson

Brailyn Marquez

 

Two caveats. Justin Steele is going to be a reliever long term, but for some reason there are reports that the Cubs have been saying they want to see him start games this year in the minors (at least in spring training). If he stays stretched out (and is performing well), I'd put him ahead of Miller. And, of course, Marquez would rank at the top of this list if he's pitching well. I put him last because it appears he has the most development left to accomplish.

 

We all expect the Cubs to sign a cheap veteran starter or two before spring training, and my sense is Abbott and Fenter will be the primary in-house guys competing with him/them for the 5th spot.

 

This will certainly be a different kind of year for pitching. With the trade of Darvish, many pitchers staying under 150 total innings due the shortened 2020 season, the Cubs desire to evaluate minor league arms this year and the likelihood of playing somewhere between 130-162 games, I think we will see a lot of guys getting called up for spot starts, injuries or no.

[Bertz]

 

Welp, Rea's gone. Hopefully more Iowa SP depth gets brought in.