Minor League Musings

[Hrubes20]

 

Great to see! I just assumed he had TJS.

[Cubswin11]

^^ Secretly I think the Cubs are pretty anti-TJ, as much as they can be. I don't actually have numbers but definitely feels like they're a leader in avoidance under Epstein

 

----

 

DH to the NL raises the profile of Ronnier Quintero pretty automatically so yay

Targeting a bunch of average stuff and velo pitchers for all those years in the draft may have something to do with it

[craig]

 

Very cool to have Manny Rodriguez pitching again. Hopefully he's fully healthy, and there is nothing structurally underlying that is damaged. I watched a couple of his spring training outings, and he looked pretty interesting. Fast fastball, and his curve looked pretty good. Didn't look like a super wildman, although living on a sharp curveball isn't exactly an easy way to be a strike-thrower. But yeah, *IF* he's fine physically, I'm very interested.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Regular Show]

 

He looks stronger and I think the Cubs cleaned up a few things in his delivery? He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), but the delivery seems smoother and maybe his landing foot is consistently landing in the same spot now.

 

Maybe he's just taking it easier during this session and the delivery looks smoother because of that. I was really looking forward to seeing him this year. I know scouts like this kid.

[craig]

 

...He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), .....

 

Yeah, the crossfire is interesting. Surprised to see that.

 

What are the pros and cons for that? Better angles against lefty hitters, of course?

 

You'd think the physics of it would normally not help in terms of weight transfer and force.

 

But might get a little more body torque and spin?

 

I imagine tinkering with that the degree of crossfire a little bit in pitch lab might be able to impact the spin axis to variable effect. Perhaps the Cubs have already worked through all of that, and have found this degree of crossfire to be most conducive to spin axis?

 

Good point that he looks fairly smooth and repeatable here; but that it may simply be because it's practice, and he's not throwing competitive game speed.

[Regular Show]

 

...He still has the crossfire delivery (which I like), .....

 

Yeah, the crossfire is interesting. Surprised to see that.

 

What are the pros and cons for that? Better angles against lefty hitters, of course?

 

You'd think the physics of it would normally not help in terms of weight transfer and force.

 

But might get a little more body torque and spin?

 

I imagine tinkering with that the degree of crossfire a little bit in pitch lab might be able to impact the spin axis to variable effect. Perhaps the Cubs have already worked through all of that, and have found this degree of crossfire to be most conducive to spin axis?

 

Good point that he looks fairly smooth and repeatable here; but that it may simply be because it's practice, and he's not throwing competitive game speed.

 

Well, the crossfire delivery adds deception and creates a unique angle or plane for your pitches. Some pitchers feel it gives their stuff more life and movement as well. The downside is it's hard (or harder) to throw strikes that way and you're kind of throwing across your body...

 

Some teams and pitching instructors don't like the crossfire delivery and prefer their pitchers be more in-line with the plate. We're not one of those organizations. We saw exactly how effective Jake Arrieta was with a crossfire delivery and we don't mind unorthodox deliveries going back all the way to Dontrelle Willis. Obviously, it's a different regime and different pitching instructors in our system now...

 

We work with all our pitching prospects on spin efficiency, spin axis for the fastball, pitch design and trying different grips, etc. in the Pitch Lab.

 

I know DJ Herz was taking part in the strength and conditioning program this offseason and I heard he's added some good weight. His fastball has ticked up a few mph and I believe his curveball is better now. I also know he's worked with Craig Breslow and the Cubs R&D people in the Pitch Lab. There were good reports on him in February.

 

Not sure what the plan is for him now. Maybe he takes part in the extended AFL later this year? Maybe just complex games in AZ? I don't know, but I'm excited to see how he progresses and I think he's one of the highest-upside prospects in our system.

[craig]

 

Well, the crossfire delivery adds deception and creates a unique angle or plane for your pitches. Some pitchers feel it gives their stuff more life and movement as well. The downside is it's hard (or harder) to throw strikes that way and you're kind of throwing across your body...

 

...I know DJ Herz was taking part in the strength and conditioning program this offseason and I heard he's added some good weight. His fastball has ticked up a few mph and I believe his curveball is better now. I also know he's worked with Craig Breslow and the Cubs R&D people in the Pitch Lab. There were good reports on him in February.

 

Not sure what the plan is for him now. Maybe he takes part in the extended AFL later this year? Maybe just complex games in AZ? I don't know, but I'm excited to see how he progresses and I think he's one of the highest-upside prospects in our system.

 

Thanks, show, helpful thoughts.

 

The notes that he's maybe added some good weight and maybe ticked up a little velocity, that's helpful. Hope so. There were references to 95 at draft, so if he could build up and do that often instead of once a season, that would be great.

 

Would you envision him getting a shot to start? Or getting used as starter for a while in minors, but just for development purpose, probably always with the expectation to be a relief guy? As a relief guy, I'd think the crossfire would be especially useful for lefty-left stuff.

 

He got paid same as 3rd round McAvene, tied for 3rd highest in the Cubs draft.

 

I thought it interesting that Fangraph, Longenhagen rated Schlaffer ahead of Herz, even though Schlaffer got only half of Herz's bonus. Herez had gotten much more enthusiastic buzz at time of draft. Hopefully both guys develop really well and both turn into big-league assets.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

Keith Law had an article in The Athletic today about how teams are going to develop minor leaguers this year. Basically what you expect (heavy focus on mechanics and conditioning, lots of Zoom calls), but thought this was interesting re: the 60 man roster

 

Another NL exec speculated that “almost every team’s top 10 prospects will be on a satellite roster. The Orioles, maybe it’ll be whoever they think are their 20 best non-roster prospects. There will be guys from this draft who are on our satellite roster.” He guessed that most or all first-round picks from this year’s draft could end up on these taxi squads to try to get those players some reps and allow coaches to get their first live looks at the players post-draft.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Brennen Davis gets the best of Cory Abbott.

 

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Alzolay vs Davis:

 

[craig]

...

Good stuff, + .00000000000000000000000000008888 credibilities awarded to myself for Roberts' velocity gains...He also recorded a cutter that registered a spin rate of 3,331 which is insane

 

Dumb question, but what kind of "velocity gains" has he supposedly accomplished? Was there a velocity reading alleged from this single pitch? I didn't read it, but maybe there was? Or are velocities reported from some other inputs?

 

I'm a little cautious about reading too much into video clips. Guys throwing all out for velocity, you're going to occasionally have a good velocity reading. May not have much to do with actual pitching, where perhaps you want to throw strikes and perhaps locate. If you throw and video-record a thousand pitches, probably by luck one of them is going to both be high-end velocity AND a strike at the same time.

 

Doesn't mean you can locate strikes consistently with anything close to that kind of velocity.....

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The screen he was throwing at illuminates the velocity. It's a bit hard to catch at that angle, but it's unmistakably saying 96 for that pitch in the video.

[craig]

Thanks, Tom. Helpful. His performance last season was really good. 1.1 WHIP, >5:1 K/BB, only a single HR all season.

 

So yeah, if his velocity is competitive, he's got a shot. Obviously he's not a big power guy; if his fastest pitch that's worth video is 96, that's not fast for a RH reliever. I think the majority of big-league RH relievers have hit at least 96 at their best?

 

But, at the same time he probably doesn't need to be an unusually fast guy. If he's got a good breaking ball, competing with a good-spin fastball that runs at 90-92 and touches 96 every once in a while can work.

 

One of the types of guys that I sure wish we'd gotten the season to see how he progressed. *IF* he'd been able to match last year's production against A+ and AA guys this summer, he'd get good respect.

[craig]

Wild guess is he is shooting for 93-94+ on the four seam, 90-94+ with the cutter, low 80s curve, and a maybe a slider in the mid-80s. His curve and cutter have generated 3100+ rpms which is elite stuff. Overall seems a quality mix of polish, projection, production, good ARLs, health, good old fashioned moxie, and a modern/hip approach

 

I wouldn't be stunned if he made the taxi squad, wouldacouldashoulda had the chance to run through the minors this year and earn a callup anyway. There's plenty of high quality relievers who rely on spin, command, and weak contact more than velocity like David Robertson, Addison Reed, Gregorson, Lugo...

 

Agree, lots of good pitchers who aren't super fast.

 

I'm guessing 93-94+ on 4-seam might be a target; but probably is a little on the high end for a guy where 96 was exciting enough to post a video for it?

 

I'd almost guess that if a guy is topping and video-posting a 96, then 91-92 might be the more likely working velocity?

 

Of course, I may be wrong there. When it's a clutch situation in the 7th inning of a 1-run game, and the fans in the stands are roaring, and adrenalin is pumping, maybe that adrenalin pumps the 91-92 guy up and he does end up throwing 93-94+?

 

Regardless, as you say it's the curve/cutter spins that are telling. If a guy can max at 96, that suggests velocity isn't a showstopper, and he can mix his fastball in with his spin stuff.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I'm guessing 93-94+ on 4-seam might be a target; but probably is a little on the high end for a guy where 96 was exciting enough to post a video for it?

 

I don't think that is how it works, craig. Or even why it would work that way? Like if 96 leads to 91-92 then what would he have to Max on to get the extra tick or two?

 

Roberts was a 90-92 guy as is, doubts he's adding mass and strength to stay in the same range and occasionally hit a higher peak

That isn't what he said.

[craig]

Thanks much, tom, for your research and info.

 

Yep, those spin rates are **really** good, especially for a guy who throws strikes. (10BB in 59 innings last year...) . Sometimes I think big spin and wildness tend to correlate (Chatwood? Burl?) . But if a guy can throw strikes AND spin it, that's a strong combo.

 

The note from the guy is also really neat.

 

Roberts was a 90-92 guy as is, doubts he's adding mass and strength to stay in the same range and occasionally hit a higher peak

 

That is a good point, I agree. I'm a little hesitant to trust that he was already a true 90-92 guy. But **if** that really was true in past, then I agree, it would make sense that with more strength that perhaps he's tacked a little more on, and 91-93 or 92-94 might really be possible.

 

I also think that perhaps for a strike-thrower, maybe a high-end velocity is less anomolous? In other words, for a 10BB/59IP guy, maybe he knows how to repeat his delivery, and isn't as likely to have wild variation in his delivery and velocity? So maybe if he is topping out at 96, maybe he really can work at only a few mph slower, and really can actually pitch at 91-94?

 

Fun to hope.

[craig]

Wait, what's a true 90-92 guy and why would it be hard to trust that a pitcher in the 21st century can do that? How many guys in pro ball these days can't do that? It legitimately might be single digits, would be news

 

If it's that his velocity was down a little in 2018 with Eugene, we're talking a season high in IP during his draft year where there's also a gap for signing and another gap before a debut...not exactly the most reliable time for velocity

 

Is 90-92 his median average, or his upper quartile? Often fans, broadcasters, TV, media, and social media tend to mention the faster stuff, and the average isn't actual quite as fast as the alleged range. So I'm hesitant to trust that "90-92" is really his average.

 

Big league average was 92.3 and 93.4 for starters and relievers in 2018. If Roberts was already averaging 91, and might add a step, he's got a shot to be very close to big-league average.

 

I've assumed he profiles as somewhat below average for velocity. Reports ahve been more favorable about his command, spins rates, and curveball than about his velocity. If everythign else is stronger about his game than his velocity, and even that is perfectly average or almost so, then he's got an excellent chance to be an asset pitcher.

 

Pitchers have a range, of course, some kind of bell curve. I suspect that for an average big-leaguer averaging 93.4, that if he throws 20 fastballs, that several of them will be 95-98. I'm also pretty confident that for a 93.4 mph average big-leaguer, that 96 isn't rare enough or exciting enough or "tops" enough for him to be posting videos about it. I suspect that Roberts posting a 96 is still consistent with the notion that he's still a shade shy of the average reliever velocity. But if his control is better, and his spin rates are better, that doesn't mean he can't be better than average.

 

So if he was already averaging 91, and could now be averaging 92 and really be barely 1 mph below average, I'd be thrilled.

[craig]

Thanks, Tom. I agree with your argumentation, they'd not spend 10th round slot $$ and 4th round pick on a guy who didn't at least project to maybe have a chance to have a competitive fastball.

 

It's interesting looking back at the bonuses for that draft, which has a chance to be a REALLY good draft.

*Roberts was the 4th round pick, but he was a big sub-slot.

*Of their top ten picks, he was the lowest bonus ($130K),

*and three more 3rd days guys also got more than Roberts (Thompson, Chris Allen, Americaan).

*Roberts was tie for 12th in bonus, at $130K, tie with Derek Casey. His $130K was slightly below the 10th-round slot value.

*5 more $125K 3rd-day guys were right behind him, plus a couple of $100's.

*His underslot ($296K) was just enough to cover Kohl Franklin's overslot ($294K over, $540 total)

 

That draft has a chance to be a REALLY good one:

Hoerner, Davis, Franklin, Thompson

Roederer, Roberts, Sanders

Americaan, Allen, Weber

 

===========

I like your point about the possibility of multi-inning relievers, and Roberts being one of several guys with that chance. We'll see whether the Cubs ever actually go that direction. But I'm intrigued by the concept. 3-batter minimum and DH both lends to the concept, as does the Cubs lack of rotation prospects.

 

What's your thoughts on how that would work? With single-inning relievers, the normal usage pattern is 3 innings per week, back-to-back is fine, every-other is preferred for many, and no back-to-back-to-back. Last year, Cishek and Ryan were the Cubs top-usage guys, with innings in the 60's and game appearances in the 70's.

 

I wonder how that could work for multi-inning guys? If a guy pitched 2 innings, obviously you'd never pitch him back-to-back; perhaps one day off on occasion, but probably default to preferring two days off, apart from September? A guy could potentially pitch 2 innings every 3rd game and end up somewhere near 50 games and 100 innings?

 

Moving more innings from low-talent soft-tossing starters to more talented relievers seems appealing... *IF* you have a lot of relievers who actually are good and can throw strikes. I think the manager would need to be willing to trust a bunch of guys. If you use some of your best relievers as multi-inning guys, you have to allow that there will be a lot of games where one or two of your best relievers are NOT going to be used. Even if it's 1-run 8th inning game versus Cardinals on Sunday, if you used your best two non-closers for two innings on Friday and two innings on Saturday, you've got to be willing to use somebody else on Sunday, even if it's a big game.

 

Obviously multi-inning use wouldn't always be clean full innings. Maybe a guy has 20 two-inning appearances and 40 one-inning appearances and ends up with 80 innings? Hader has had 55 and 61 games, with 81 and 76 innings.

 

Either way, shifting more innings to relief seems wise to me.

 

I like clean innings. I think it might benefit some relievers to get a normal warmup, and start an inning clean, versus routinely coming into dirty innings, or knowing that one baserunner and you'll probably get pulled. But certainly most of our relievers have splits, and trying to pitch full-inning or two-inning games will necessitate facing opposite hitters, including even with runners on base.

 

At the same time, with DH in play, that will only leave 4 players on a bench, not all of whom are necessarily very dangerous pinch hitters. So the number of opposite pinch hitters really won't be that big a threat.

[craig]

Agree. Having an arsenal with 3 or even 4 pitches, rather than just the 2-pitch mix sometimes associated with one-inning relievers, is really conducive to multi-inning work, and to facing ≥3 batters.

 

If your 2nd pitch doesn't work against opposite hitters, need a 3rd pitch that does.

 

Obviously "working on" 3rd and 4th in pitch labs, and practice, and minors, is one thing; actually trusting those 3rd and 4th pitches in big-league games may be harder.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Thanks, Tom. I agree with your argumentation, they'd not spend 10th round slot $$ and 4th round pick on a guy who didn't at least project to maybe have a chance to have a competitive fastball.

 

It's interesting looking back at the bonuses for that draft, which has a chance to be a REALLY good draft.

*Roberts was the 4th round pick, but he was a big sub-slot.

*Of their top ten picks, he was the lowest bonus ($130K),

*and three more 3rd days guys also got more than Roberts (Thompson, Chris Allen, Americaan).

*Roberts was tie for 12th in bonus, at $130K, tie with Derek Casey. His $130K was slightly below the 10th-round slot value.

*5 more $125K 3rd-day guys were right behind him, plus a couple of $100's.

*His underslot ($296K) was just enough to cover Kohl Franklin's overslot ($294K over, $540 total)

 

That draft has a chance to be a REALLY good one:

Hoerner, Davis, Franklin, Thompson

Roederer, Roberts, Sanders

Americaan, Allen, Weber

 

Jack Patterson deserves to be mentioned here too. He’s already at AA and snuck onto the back of some top 30 prospect lists.

[craig]

Good catch, cal. Yes, Patterson should definitely be included in the pool of possible-major-leaguers from that class. He'll turn 25 in a month. I don't have a record on how much he signed for. Two of the three guys in the rounds before him signed for $1K and $3K. So I'm guessing Patterson was probably in that range, too. Would be pretty cool for a $1K-bonus guy to make it.

 

What a bummer losing this season is for a guy like that. Had success starting in A-AA last year. Of course we assume it's a fluke and he'd not build further. But, what if he had? With Lester, Q, and Chatwood all expiring, there are rotation spots for next year waiting to be won by somebody or other. What if he's stacked another crazy good season on, he might have been knocking on a big-league rotation opportunity. Same for a guy like Abbott, three rotation spots opening, what if he'd sequenced another high-level year? He too might have used a good season to put himself into the rotation.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Good catch, cal. Yes, Patterson should definitely be included in the pool of possible-major-leaguers from that class. He'll turn 25 in a month. I don't have a record on how much he signed for. Two of the three guys in the rounds before him signed for $1K and $3K. So I'm guessing Patterson was probably in that range, too. Would be pretty cool for a $1K-bonus guy to make it.

 

What a bummer losing this season is for a guy like that. Had success starting in A-AA last year. Of course we assume it's a fluke and he'd not build further. But, what if he had? With Lester, Q, and Chatwood all expiring, there are rotation spots for next year waiting to be won by somebody or other. What if he's stacked another crazy good season on, he might have been knocking on a big-league rotation opportunity. Same for a guy like Abbott, three rotation spots opening, what if he'd sequenced another high-level year? He too might have used a good season to put himself into the rotation.

 

Patterson got a $5k signing bonus!

 

I’m with you. There are a bunch of guys who would’ve pitched in the upper minors this year and could have established themselves as potential 2021 big leaguers (not just for the 3 rotation spots but also as potential relievers): Abbott, Márquez, Miller, Patterson, Steele and K. Thompson plus maybe some guys who would’ve started at Myrtle Beach.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Embedded in the article is the video interview.