Minor League Musings

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.

Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Not a Cubs Q obviously, but something to keep in mind for college guys their first summer. Like I'm very disappointed in what Strumpf has done since signing, but it's hard to take numbers the summer after the draft too seriously, good or bad.

 

On one hand, I definitely see the argument there, especially since the conditioning program at the college level should hopefully be lesser than what someone can get in a pro offseason. On the other hand, to use Vaughn as an example, he's played 107 games this year, and every full-season team is between 130-140 right now. Maybe playing regular games over a slightly longer time horizon is more taxing, but that doesn't seem like such a heavy workload that you should expect a guy to be substantially worse than expectations.

[Bertz]

There is a world of diff btw acknowledging the possibility of late season draft year fatigue and essentially dismissing July++ in the pros on that possibility. Why not just adjust expectations? For instance - Ryan Jensen walked guys during his debut. Otherwise hitters couldn't touch him, couldn't score on him, and when they did it was deaded quickly. Coming off a break between the draft and signing plus a career high workloaded extended into pro ball - probably those walks aren't a thing yet and maaaaaybe even could be called. Vaughn might still have monster periphs - haven't looked - even if fans won't find the line pretty enough or whatever

 

Because this isn't the only factor that makes these guys' numbers unreliable

 

- It's SSS, as at absolute best you're looking at 2.5 months, more like 1.5 if a guy makes a deep CWS run

- The fatigue thing

- Guys from SEC are playing levels of competition well below what they're used to (which is why you shouldn't get too excited about guys who are doing awesome)

- Guys haven't gone through their first offseason/instructs yet, so there could be things wrong with them that are very fixable

- General issues with the predictive power of leagues so far from the majors

 

You still want guys to be good obviously, but I'm not sure there's any evidence that we actually learn much during this period.

[Bertz]

Because this isn't the only factor that makes these guys' numbers unreliable

 

- It's SSS, as at absolute best you're looking at 2.5 months, more like 1.5 if a guy makes a deep CWS run

- The fatigue thing

- Guys from SEC are playing levels of competition well below what they're used to (which is why you shouldn't get too excited about guys who are doing awesome)

- Guys haven't gone through their first offseason/instructs yet, so there could be things wrong with them that are very fixable

- General issues with the predictive power of leagues so far from the majors

 

You still want guys to be good obviously, but I'm not sure there's any evidence that we actually learn much during this period.

 

I just don't see the rationale behind taking info out when already dealing with not enough. All of these can be accounted for oracknowledged without dismissing. Nothing will excite an org more than the highly drafted or well liked amateur that comes in and performs with the deck basically fully stacked against them and only the worst will be written off after a pro debut. You're gonna probably get a couple hundred+ PAs out of a high pick like Vaughn pretty easily, which sure is a SSS but hardly a dismissible number. From there you can acknowledge that a college guy will probably be a little older than his comp in pro ball, but he's also going to be handicapped like you mention because he's also probably coming off the most stressful year of his life both on and off the field AND many of their opponents have had pro instructs and offseasons.

 

I've been on this site calling future relevant DSL and AZL Cubs off of some pretty basic stats, usually less than 300 PAs too, literally for years now with lots of hits. Yeah, I can't tell you what they'll be like as MLers or even if they'll make it, but I can definitely tell you which debuts or players are worth following with confidence. This is just me doing it for fun after reading other people's stuff for years, the predictive value isn't zero at the level is what I'm getting at. Many times (like DSL ) the line isn't outright anything anyone would notice, but put into context with the info we do have and what is known about what stats are telling at these levels of ball...Anyway, even if you buy nothing about what I'm saying there's still no rational explanation for dismissing information in a situation where the outcome is easiest to predict using all the info - qualitative and quantitative

 

To me this idea of dismissing stats in that context is as crazy as dismissing scouting reports, bio info, and anything else you can get. Just quick glancing at 21 YO Andrew Vaughn's pro debut as a highly ranked player taken in the top 3 of the draft: he took 16 PAs in Rk ball, demolished it for the record. He then took the final 229 PAs in full season ball, most of those alllllll the way in High A (one of the two that isn't the CAL where I'd probably expect a pretty slash) when even that whole bit about the SEC kinda runs its course, and put up above league average lines in both with no issues making contact or hitting for both average amd power relative to the league. To me, that's a strong pro debut even borderline badass for getting those reps in High A. White Sox fans should be pretty damn happy with that debut even considering he's a short RH 1B because clearly that profile was not scary enough to override what he was doing in college - hitting for power, hitting for average, not striking out, and taking walks

 

Let's take Strumpf as an example of a bad debut this year. I think we'd all agree his K rate is less than ideal given that he's a college bat. How many PA's next year do you need before you completely disregard everything from this summer? Like if Strumpf is sitting at a 15% K rate on May 1st next year, will you still be couching everything with "I'm still worried. Dude had a ton of swing and miss at Eugene last summer." Because I'll be honest I'll probably be willing to throw his Eugene numbers out by tax day. Conversely, if Ademan kicks ass to open next year, he's probably gonna need to keep it up into at least June before I start buying again

 

It's less about throwing information out and more about weighting. I think I ranked Strumpf 9th in our system the day after the draft. If I did the same ranks today I probably wouldn't drop him more than one spot (ignoring obviously anyone else's movement). But to use Ademan as a comparison again, I think I had him 3rd or 4th at draft time (holy crap he had a 140 wrc+ at that point?!). Now? Mayyybeee 10th as a nod to his age relative to league. If 2019 production is informing 30% of my Ademan opinion, it's informing less than 10% of my Strumpf opinion.

 

DSL production is a great comparison. Let me first say in no uncertain terms that I really appreciate the effort you put into digging into those guys. Please keep doing what you're doing on that front. But, essentially my entire opinion on anyone that low is going to be based on their scouting report. Like pretty much nothing a bonus baby such as Ronny Quientero does prior to South Bend is gonna move the needle for me. And if there's some $100k guy killing it in the DSL, unless it's paired with an glowing scouting report it won't really register for me.

[Hrubes20]

 

Boooooooooo, I don't think the Brewers or Mets are that bad either. I'd proooooobably go with the Nats' as the worst. The Yankees' isn't so hot either, they're system is structured like the Cub' with a nominal #1 up top because he reached AA before everyone else and a bunch of far off tooled up lottery tickets pretty far away...The Red Sox have Casas but otherwise...

 

We knew BA would be the low guys on the Cubs. I'm with you on the Red Sox being bad. They are the worst farm system IMO.

[Brian]

Not sure if this is accurate, but it appears these rankings are from before the season started.

 

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[Brian]

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Haven't looked at the numbers, but kind of surprising that the 100+ MPH lefty that was unhittable for the 2nd half isn't the pitcher of the year.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Not sure if this is accurate, but it appears these rankings are from before the season started.

 

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It was updated at midseason, which is why I snarkily responded to that tweet.

[Hrubes20]

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Haven't looked at the numbers, but kind of surprising that the 100+ MPH lefty that was unhittable for the 2nd half isn't the pitcher of the year.

 

Because he was hittable and walked a decent amount of guys the 1st half. Marquez wins 2nd Half pitcher of the year easily, if that were a thing. But Abbott had the better performance from start to finish. Always important to remember that this isn't "Best Hitting Prospect and Best Pitching Prospect" in the system, but rather who played the best (i.e. best stats).

[Hrubes20]

Abbott was first in the AA Southern League in IP, Ks, 4th in ERA, 2nd in K-BB%, limited line drives and generated popups as a flyball pitcher...Decent prospect too, first maybe underrated Cubs pitching prospect in a few years. Definitely these two seem a step up from when like Nick Struck won pitcher of the year

 

That list of former Cubs Minor League Pitchers of the Year is depressing.

[craig]

Abbott was first in the AA Southern League in IP, Ks, 4th in ERA, 2nd in K-BB%, limited line drives and generated popups as a flyball pitcher...Decent prospect too, first maybe underrated Cubs pitching prospect in a few years. Definitely these two seem a step up from when like Nick Struck won pitcher of the year

 

Not to spin negatively, since I'm very interested in Abbott and since he was really exceptional down the stretch.

 

But to some extent, good prospects don't tend to be in one league long enough to lead leagues in IP, K's, or things like ERA or K-BB%. Most times if a good pitching prospect is leading his league in stuff like that, he's getting moved up to a higher league.

 

If Abbott was more studly, or if he'd pitched early as shockingly well as he pitched down the stretch, the Cubs wouldn't have left him there all year long.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mj6mmbzuoe6hvk7/Screenshot%202019-09-17%2023.12.51.png?dl=0

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Abbott was first in the AA Southern League in IP, Ks, 4th in ERA, 2nd in K-BB%, limited line drives and generated popups as a flyball pitcher...Decent prospect too, first maybe underrated Cubs pitching prospect in a few years. Definitely these two seem a step up from when like Nick Struck won pitcher of the year

 

Not to spin negatively, since I'm very interested in Abbott and since he was really exceptional down the stretch.

 

But to some extent, good prospects don't tend to be in one league long enough to lead leagues in IP, K's, or things like ERA or K-BB%. Most times if a good pitching prospect is leading his league in stuff like that, he's getting moved up to a higher league.

 

If Abbott was more studly, or if he'd pitched early as shockingly well as he pitched down the stretch, the Cubs wouldn't have left him there all year long.

 

https://www.dropbox.com/s/mj6mmbzuoe6hvk7/Screenshot%202019-09-17%2023.12.51.png?dl=0

 

Yep. Tyson Miller would've won the award if it was based on AA performance solely. I think Abbott will struggle with AAA too unless the juiced ball goes away.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019

 

Hoerner at 48, Amaya at 91

 

The combo of ranking Sam Huff above Miguel Amaya without Tyler Stephenson being on this list at all is annoying to me. Huff's a good prospect but beyond raw size I don't see what he has over either Amaya or Stephenson (a better 6'4" catcher who did his hitting in AA this year).

 

Royce Lewis at 9...Estevan Florial at 83...Are we SURE sure sure that Ademan is not in these guys' league? I thought Lewis had his out with a AA promotion, but he struggled there too!

 

They did not sneak Marquez onto there, but BA seems ready to embrace him so maybe he hits their list

 

BA already had their end-of-season list. Hoerner was 40, Márquez 96, no Amaya.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Cubs made BA's PCL Top 20. Nico Hoerner came in at 15 on their SL Top 20:

 

15. Nico Hoerner, SS/2B, Tennessee (Cubs)

Age: 22. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-1. WT: 200. Drafted: Stanford, 2018 (1).

 

The Cubs drafted Hoerner 24th overall in 2018 but didn’t have to wait long to see a return on their investment. He reached Chicago as a September callup this season after a successful but injury-interrupted season in the Southern League.

 

Hoerner had no trouble jumping to Double-A in his first full pro season. He hit .300/.391/.500 in April, showing strike zone mastery and elite bat-to-ball skills before he fractured his left wrist and missed May and June. Hoerner uses an inside-out swing to deposit hits all over the field, but he can find the seats when he hunts his pitch.

 

Multiple evaluators used the word "grinder” to describe Hoerner, meaning that his raw tools don’t overwhelm but that his skill level and game awareness make him a winning player. He is a dependable fielder at shortstop and second base with an accurate arm, and the Cubs deployed him in 11 games in center field after he returned from the Tennessee injured list to enhance his versatility.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Miguel Amaya came in at 11 on the Carolina League top 20:

 

11. Miguel Amaya, C, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 185. Signed: Panama, 2015.

 

Amaya handled himself well as a 20-year-old in a league full of talented catchers. He continues to improve his receiving and presentation behind the plate, and he already has good patience as a hitter.

 

"He did a few things great,” Winston-Salem manager Justin Jirschele said. "I definitely see that the tools are there. He has a raw bat, but he’s getting an idea of the strike zone as he grows and matures.”

 

Scouts graded Amaya highly for his bat control and ability to hit to the big part of the field, which unfortunately for hitters is bigger at Myrtle Beach than most minor league parks. His catching remains behind his hitting, but his now-200-plus-pound frame has become more of the ideal size for a catcher. He also has good pop times between 2.01 and 2.05 seconds on throws to second base.

[Hrubes20]

11. Miguel Amaya, C, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 185. Signed: Panama, 2015.

 

Scouts graded Amaya highly for his bat control and ability to hit to the big part of the field, which unfortunately for hitters is bigger at Myrtle Beach than most minor league parks. His catching remains behind his hitting, but his now-200-plus-pound frame has become more of the ideal size for a catcher. He also has good pop times between 2.01 and 2.05 seconds on throws to second base.

 

 

I like that number much better, although I'm sure he's not averaging that. For reference, Contreras averaged 1.91 this year and was third in all of baseball (Realmuto led the majors with 1.88 average).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA skipped the MWL and went to the NWL for their top 20s today:

 

6. Chase Strumpf, 2B, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 191. Drafted: UCLA, 2019 (2).

 

Strumpf was high school teammates with 2017 No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, but he opted to go to UCLA to hone his skills for three years instead. The Cubs do an excellent job identifying college hitters, and Strumpf looks to be the latest in that line.

 

Strumpf is prototypical professional hitter with a simple, smooth swing at the plate and strong knowledge of the strike zone. More than that, he shows excellent power to all fields and sprayed doubles from line to line in his pro debut. Three seasons working with John Savage’s Bruins has instilled a strong work ethic in Strumpf, which should help him quickly adjust to the advanced pitching he’ll face as a pro.

 

He’s a competent defender at second base who will make all the routine plays but might not show up on the highlight reels. Even so, he should provide plenty of value with his bat.

 

Strumpf came in 5 spots higher on this list than UCLA teammate and 2019 1st rounder Michael Toglia.

 

13. Kohl Franklin, RHP, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. HT: 6-4. WT: 190. Drafted: HS—Broken Arrow, Okla., 2018 (6th round).

 

Franklin, the nephew of former big leaguer Ryan Franklin, was drafted on the strength of a loose arm and a frame with plenty of projection remaining. He’s begun to fill out over the last 18 months and has seen gains in his stuff as a result.

 

He now operates with a low-90s fastball that touched 95 mph this season and could have room for even more velocity as his body matures. His delivery features a clean arm stroke and above-average speed generated by a broad-shouldered frame.

 

The ace of the Eugene staff before a late-season promotion to low Class A South Bend, Franklin backs up his fastball with a mid-70s curveball and a sinking, low-80s changeup. Both offspeed pitches project as average, though the changeup is a bit ahead of the curveball, which was a big point of development this season. He figures to fit as a back-end starter if he reaches his ceiling.

 

15. Edmond Americaan, OF, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Drafted: Chipola JC, 2018 (35th).

 

The Cubs believed enough in Americaan’s tools to give him a signing bonus of $208,950 in the 34th round after his second season at Chipola JC and then let their player development staff go to work turning those tools into bona fide skills.

 

This year, the results began showing up. He was moved from his quick cameo at low Class A South Bend back to short-season Eugene, where he started working to change his hitting approach to make himself more of an all-fields threat. Already blessed with wiry strength and strong hands and wrists, Americaan showed plenty of opposite-field strength but had not figured out how to pull the ball with authority. By the end of the year, he had come so far in that department that he was parking balls on top of the player development complex well beyond the right-field wall at Eugene’s PK Park.

 

He’s got the footspeed and range to stick in center field, but his arm is strong enough that he could move to right field and be a weapon, especially if his power continues to flourish.

 

19. Pedro Martinez, SS, Eugene (Cubs)

Age: 18. B-T: S-R. HT: 5-11. WT: 165. Signed: Venezuela, 2018.

 

Martinez signed in the spring of 2018, then immediately tore up the Dominican Summer League. He did the same in the Rookie-level Arizona League to begin the summer of 2019, then earned a promotion to Eugene. His numbers weren’t quite as loud in the Northwest League, but he still showed plenty of potential in his 27-game sample.

 

The Cubs believe Martinez has the athleticism and makeup to become a solid hitter, and scouts who saw the league agree. He has average bat speed and bat-to-ball skills and balanced swings from both sides of the plate. He’s got at least average tools across the board, with a chance for plus defense and an arm that could serve him on either the left or right side of the infield. He’s also lauded for high baseball IQ and willingness to work hard to improve and reach his ceiling.

[Bear Cub]

What are musings? Just asking.

[CubsWin]

What are musings? Just asking.

Thoughts. Reflections. Contemplations.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Pedro Martínez was the only Cub in the AZL Top 20, at 18:

 

18. Pedro Martinez, SS/2B, Cubs

Age: 18. B-T: B-R. Ht: 5-11. Wt: 165. Signed: Venezuela, 2018.

 

Martinez signed with the Cubs near the tail-end of the 2017-2018 international signing period, and early returns indicate that the Cubs may have gotten a bargain in the Venezuela native.

 

Martinez started strong in Arizona, batting .352/.417/.519 before receiving an August promotion to the Northwest League. He has a good, balanced swing with bat speed and some loft, better now from the left side. He has average power and should develop more as he grows into his body. While he's an average defender at shortstop, some observers believe he'll be better suited for second base, especially if gets bigger. An above-average arm will play at either position.

 

The Cubs' staff was impressed with the attitude that Martinez brought to the field.

 

"He did a great job," Cubs veteran manager Carmelo Martinez said. "He's a young guy, and he showed a lot of desire to get better."

 

The top of the league was freaking loaded:

 

1. CJ Abrams

2. Marco Luciano

3. Bobby Witt Jr

4. Corbin Carroll

5. Diego Cartaya

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Navin (Pasadena, CA): What is the word on Richard Gallardo? He was a highly heralded signing and held his own at 17 in the AZL but didn't have eye-popping stats. Thank you!

 

Bill Mitchell: Cubs RHP Richard Gallardo was considered for the list and likely would have been on a Top 30. He's got a mature body at 17, not real projectable or loose. The fastball was 90-94 with good movement and a couple of average off-speed pitches. Scouts were mixed on how much they liked him, with the consensus coming in as him being a pitchability guy with a high floor but lower ceiling.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I find it hard to believe you can rank 100 prospects in the AZL ahead of Benjamin Rodriguez.

[Bertz]

A couple of holdovers from my notebook from the regular season: I saw Cubs lefty Brailyn Marquez, easily their top pitching prospect now, over Labor Day weekend at Wilmington, and he showed two plus-plus pitches with a 96-100 mph fastball and a slider at 86-88. He didn't throw a fastball under 98 in the first inning and was still hitting 100 in the third and 99 in the fifth, while the slider is a wipeout pitch, and I could see him becoming an Aroldis Chapman-type reliever who misses bats with both pitches, aided by a delivery that gives him deception from the left side. He has a good build for durability, but his delivery has all kinds of red flags -- he spins off his front heel, he slings the ball, his arm is late -- that make me think he's more likely a reliever than a starter.

 

Keith Law on Brailyn. I think he had already said an abbreviated version of this in a chat within the last month, but still interesting.

[Brian]

According to his Instagram Luke Hagerty has started throwing as of two weeks ago, and as of yesterday signed back with the Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

3 Cubs in the MWL top 20:

 

Brailyn Márquez at 3, Brennen Davis at 10 and Riley Thompson (not Cole Roederer!) at 19. Only Wander Franco and Matthew Liberatore were ranked ahead of Brailyn.

 

3. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, South Bend (Cubs)

Age: 20. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 185. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2017.

 

Even in today’s game, a lefthanded starter who can touch 100 mph is notable. Marquez is one the most electrifying southpaws in the minors, though he faces plenty of work ahead. At the end of the day, he has the pure stuff to be a solid major league starter—or dominating reliever.

 

“The stuff has always been there,” a scout said. “He sits upper 90s, averaging nearly 96 (mph). His curveball has come on and he’s working on his changeup. He’s still working on consistency and growing into his body. He’s not fully coordinated yet and still mastering his mechanics.”

 

Marquez will have his arm slot wander at times—he walked seven in 3.2 innings in one early-season start—but he also finished his Midwest League season by striking out 22 and allowing just two baserunners in his final 12 innings.

 

10. Brennen Davis, OF, South Bend (Cubs)

Age: 19. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 175. Drafted: HS—Chandler, Ariz., 2018 (2).

 

A basketball star early in his high school career, Davis missed most of his senior baseball season because of a hamstring injury. Thus when the Cubs drafted him in the second round in 2018, he was viewed as a toolsy player who would need two years in Rookie ball before he was ready for the Midwest League.

 

Davis quickly sped up his timetable. He made it to South Bend in late May and proved to be one of the best hitters in his team’s lineup. Despite playing just 50 games—he missed a month with a finger injury— he still finished second on the team with eight home runs.

 

Davis impacts the ball, with the potential to deliver average and power.

 

“I thought he would go to (short-season) Eugene, but he bullied his way to South Bend,” a scout said. “He’s been on fire and exceeding expectations. Davis is not just a free-swinger. He looks like a polished hitter. He’s fine defensively and covers ground.”

 

Davis played center field as often as he played left, and his routes need some work, but his above-average speed and instincts give him a chance to stick in center.

 

19. Riley Thompson, RHP, South Bend (Cubs)

Age: 23. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-3 Wt.: 205. Drafted: Louisville, 2018 (11).

 

While Thompson was among the older arms in the Midwest League, his work throughout his second season as a professional was eye-catching.

 

It’s been a steady process of simplifying his mechanics and finding his groove at the minor league level since the Cubs took Thompson in the 11th round of the 2018 draft out of Louisville.

 

"He has an easy plus fastball that sits 92-96 mph,” one scout said. "He has a curveball and changeup that have a chance to be solid-average with enough command and control that he could be in a rotation. His curve is average around 3,000 rpm. There are enough strikes there, and the command will continue to get better.”

 

The Cubs didn’t rush Thompson, holding him at the low Class A level all season. A move to high Class A Myrtle Beach in 2020 is to be expected to add more of a challenge.

[Bertz]

The MWL is a tough list to crack too because of the number of teams.

 

Very good to hear on Thompson. A 3000 RPM curveball would be top 10 in the league. Hopefully he can continue to refine his consistency and efficiency because the stuff is there.