Minor League Musings

[CubsWin]

Wow, really? That's a lot higher than I thought he'd say.

 

The FanGraphs guys haven't really been down on him as a SP so much as a particularly good one. Their preseason projection was a #4 starter

That high? For a guy with mediocre production who hadn't played full season ball yet? Is that common for them?

 

I'll be curious to see how their projection of him has changed, if it all, come next spring.

[CubsWin]

Well, he improved his slider this year. That thing is above average to plus consistently now. Next is the change up.

 

Again, I'll be interested to see how they project him next spring.

[OleMissCub]

We have any guys in Iowa who can actually get strike 3 on hitters? I want to shoot the entire Cubs bullpen into the sun and start over.

[CubsWin]

We have any guys in Iowa who can actually get strike 3 on hitters? I want to shoot the entire Cubs bullpen into the sun and start over.

Yes. The problem is they also get to ball 4 quite often, too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

This week’s BA Hot Sheet:

 

15. Cory Abbot, RHP, Cubs

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 23

Why He’s Here: 0-0, 0.00, 6 2/3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 12 SO

 

The Scoop: Chicago’s No. 11 prospect allowed just three baserunners in his start against Double-A Jacksonville. He was able to fill up the strike zone as usual, using up 99 pitches before making his exit. Abbot was able to mix his pitch sequences, which helped him to rack up the strikeouts. (JC)

[Hrubes20]

As a big believer that the general philosophy is to develop bats and buy putching, I like to follow non-Cubs pitching prospects closer than the bats and one of the potentially good ones is getting called up: AJ Puk will work out of the A's bullpen. Pre-TJ Puk was filthy, a giant lefty with a mid-upper 90s fastball that played up because of his size and extension plus three offspeeds including one of the better sliders out there and a change up that was quickly coming on, his 2017 was prooooobably the most dominant of the elite arms in the minors

 

It's interesting how, right during that run of TJs on young ML arms during 2014-2015 (not to mention the untimely cocaine fueld death of the best young pitcher on the planet), there was another even quieter run on big name amateurs and MiL prospects having TJ surgery before hitting the show (Puk, Cease, Fried, Honeywell, Soroka, Paddack, A. Espinoza, Clevinger etc). In their 2016 look TJ surgery, THT stated that there just wasn't enough data on TJs done in the MiLs or as amateurs to say anything. Coincidence!?!?! That run of arm arm injuries kept and keeps me interested in Kolby Allard's development, hitting 95+ for the Rangers against MiL last week with 3-4 offspeeds, as he managed to reach the majors at 20 fitting 150 strong AA innings in at 19 (nearly 275 strong innings at AA and above by 20)

 

Allard was hitting 95+ as a starter? That’s pretty big, if true. He was struggling to hit 90 consistently in the Braves system, last I saw.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The final top 100 board from Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?sort=-1,1

 

Hoerner: 53

Amaya: 61

Ademan: 92 (!)

 

Much like Abrams, we’re not certain the Cubs’ Nico Hoerner can play shortstop, but he’ll end up in the middle of the field somewhere, and we think he’ll rake. He becomes the top Cubs prospect, though our opinion of C Miguel Amaya hasn’t changed.

[CubsWin]

Fun fact:

 

MWL average RA/9 - 4.30

Marquez's MWL RA/9 - 4.66

Funner fact:

 

Marquez got a lot better as the season went along so looking to season long numbers for accurate context on who he is now doesn't tell us much. We could also point out his season long walk numbers, but that would ignore the fact that in his last 5 stats (27.1 innings) he's walked 5 guys while striking out 38.

 

Is that an accurate picture of who he is going forward? Who knows? But his most recent performances (especially for a 20 year old who is showing development in leaps and bounds) are likely more accurate than what he was doing April-June.

 

And why you would us RA/9 as a telling stat when it ignores the quality of and situational defense behind him is odd especially for a guy whose FIP and xFIP were better than his ERA this year. But, you do you. Not seeking to change your opinion in any way. Just stating my own.

[CubsWin]

Funner fact: Marquez got a lot better as the season went along so looking to season long numbers for accurate context on who he is now doesn't tell us much. We could also point out his season long walk numbers, but that would ignore the fact that in his last 5 stats (27.1 innings) he's walked 5 guys while striking out 38.

 

Is that an accurate picture of who he is going forward? Who knows? But his most recent performances (especially for a 20 year old who is showing development in leaps and bounds) are likely more accurate than what he was doing April-June.

 

And why you would us RA/9 as a telling stat when it ignores the quality of and situational defense behind him is odd especially for a guy whose FIP and xFIP were better than his ERA this year. But, you do you. Not seeking to change your opinion in any way. Just stating my own.

 

That is a tough pill to swallow and a pretty irrational premise. I do not get this idea that opting for less info about the same season is more telling than the favorite parts. His season is actually pretty fun if you're less caught up in labeling him a TOR guy for doing well at the A ball levels for a handful starts too, he didn't do anything to hurt himself as a ML prospect. Is it great that the best came at the end? Yep, for both him and the Cubs. Do I think 27.1 IP establishes that he secretly had amazing control the whole time? Nope. Do I think he had bad control in the first place? Don't really care until AA about walk rates unless they're heavily one way or another for alot more than 27.1 innings, and even then look at what else is going on.

 

The quality and situational defense in...A ball? After taking 3 years to get there? From a supposed future TOR starter? Not for me

It's okay. You don't have to get it. Not that you're trying to when you misrepresent what I wrote and respond to words I didn't write.

 

But like I said, you do you. It's all good with me that we view this differently.

[Tryptamine]

In the majors I'd agree that we'd pretty much ignore a small sample like 27IP, but in the minors where prospects make huge strides fairly often, I'd weight what we've seen lately a lot more heavily.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Hot Sheet:

 

8. Luis Verdugo, SS, Cubs

Team: Rookie-level Arizona (Arizona)

Age: 18

Why He’s Here: .444/.464/.926 (12-for-28), 9 R, 1 2B, 4 HR, 15 RBIs, 0 BB, 7 SO, 1-for-1 SB

 

The Scoop: Verdugo earned positive reviews from scouts last year as a 17-year-old in the AZL despite subpar numbers. Verdugo returned to the AZL this year and has shown why scouts were so high on him. His projected power has turned into game power last week with four home runs, and his natural feel for getting the barrel to the baseball has resulted in a .306/.369/.451 slash line this season. As Verdugo begins to figure things out, the $1.2 million signing bonus he was given as an amateur out of Mexico may turn out to be a bargain. (KG)

 

15. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Cubs

Team: High Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 20

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 1.69, 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO

 

The Scoop: Entering the year, Marquez was hard-thrower with interesting upside. With the season nearly done, he’s cemented his rep as the best arm in the Cubs’ system. He regularly gets his heater into triple-digits and couples it with a wicked breaking ball from the left side. He’s been electric since moving to high Class A Myrtle Beach, allowing just eight hits while whiffing 16 over his first 15.1 innings, which span four starts. (JN)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Hrubes20]

 

 

Man, they essentially wasted his 2020 by waiting so long. He hasn't pitched in a really long time.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Cubs in the final Prospect Hot Sheet But Pedro Martínez was the helium prospect:

 

HELIUM

Pedro Martinez, 2B, Cubs

 

The Cubs aggressively assigned Martinez to the short-season Northwest League, and he responded with an excellent half-season. He showed on-base skills in the typically college-heavy league, and the team believes he has the ceiling to produce power and speed as he develops. (JN)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

 

40. Nico Hoerner

96. Brailyn Marquez

[Cubswin11]

The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

 

40. Nico Hoerner

96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

 

40. Nico Hoerner

96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??

 

Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.

[Tryptamine]

I don't get the Amaya omission at all. A 20 year old catcher with a plus arm who is putting up a 122wRC+ in A+ isn't top 100 while a 21 year old catcher also in A+ with a plus arm and a 104wRC+ is #64 on the list.

[Bertz]

The final regular season BA top 100 prospects list now has 2 Cubs with Brailyn Marquez cracking the list:

 

40. Nico Hoerner

96. Brailyn Marquez

No Amaya??

 

Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.

 

I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Tedward]

No Amaya??

 

Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.

 

I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years

 

Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...

[Bertz]

 

Since I think Amaya is the Cubs best prospect, I definitely think that's an oversight on BA's part.

 

I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years

 

Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...

 

They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

 

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

I feel like BA has a lot more oversights the past few years

 

Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...

 

They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

 

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.

 

They've also lost Jim Manuel and Aaron Fitt (college baseball) in recent years, who are really good.

[Bertz]

 

Hmmn... Omitting Amaya ... maybe that's why they had us with the 29th overall farm system recently ...

 

They also didn't have Chris Morel in their recent top 30, which is ludicrous.

 

They obviously fell off a lot when Jim Callis left, since he's basically the Mike Trout of minor league stuff. But I feel like they've fallen off even more the last year or three. I tend to think it's because they try to put out way more content than they used to to in order to compete with as MLB.com or Fangraphs, but since they still have a pretty small team it has led to a lot more sloppiness.

 

They've also lost Jim Manuel and Aaron Fitt (college baseball) in recent years, who are really good.

 

Good call. Manuel especially touched a lot of the rankings and the handbook.

[Bertz]

Nick: Andrew Vaughn’s had a decent pro debut the numbers don’t jump off the page the way I would have expected them to so far. Maybe there’s some fatigue after a long season. What do you make of his first taste of pro ball? For a player whose value is almost entirely tied up in his bat, I would have liked to see a little more this summer.

Keith Law: He’s been playing since Valentine’s Day. I’m sure he and Adley are exhausted.

Not a Cubs Q obviously, but something to keep in mind for college guys their first summer. Like I'm very disappointed in what Strumpf has done since signing, but it's hard to take numbers the summer after the draft too seriously, good or bad.