Sherman - Cubs (and others obv) expected to be in on Alex Gordon

[Guest]

So 11 days ago, Gammons said Lackey and Gordon were the two guys he heard the most buzz on with the Cubs. He brought up Gordon again today, saying he'd likely play RF if they signed him.

 

If our off season winds up being Lackey, Gordon, Soler trade for a young pitcher, and Span......How happy are we? I think I'm 8/10, maybe even 9/10.....

 

That's about an 150 million payroll before trading away from the depth of Coghlan/Castro/Hammel (I assume Wood is a goner when the 2nd SP arrives). Those players are an....underwhelming use of a payroll of that magnitude, even though I don't hate any of the moves individually(except maybe Soler for SP).

[Bryants Disco Ball]

So 11 days ago, Gammons said Lackey and Gordon were the two guys he heard the most buzz on with the Cubs. He brought up Gordon again today, saying he'd likely play RF if they signed him.

 

If our off season winds up being Lackey, Gordon, Soler trade for a young pitcher, and Span......How happy are we? I think I'm 8/10, maybe even 9/10.....

 

That's about an 150 million payroll before trading away from the depth of Coghlan/Castro/Hammel (I assume Wood is a goner when the 2nd SP arrives). Those players are an....underwhelming use of a payroll of that magnitude, even though I don't hate any of the moves individually(except maybe Soler for SP).

 

I feel like they'd solidify the first two spots in the order with guys who have career OBP's of .350+. You're also getting these guys, hopefully, for three to five seasons and they come off the books at the perfect time.

 

In addition, it doesn't hamstring you as much in the future. Meaning, when Edwin Jackson's money comes off the books it's payroll we can use rather than having to put it in the Jason Heyward contract that will be much longer and expensive. Gordon can provide a lot of that same stuff for fewer years and money.

 

I will take my bashing now.

[Cubbie Swagger]

I just realized that Fowler completely blew away his career averages for at bats and games played last year.

 

As far as Gordon, he was pretty good from 2011-2014, but he has also had some pretty mediocre years. I don't think I would take his 2015 over Fowler's, and I certainly wouldn't be in a hurry to give Gordon a big long term deal.

 

I think it's pretty darn realistic for Soler to reach Gordon's level of offensive production in the next 1-2 seasons, and Soler is much better looking.

[Clem Fandango]

I just realized that Fowler completely blew away his career averages for at bats and games played last year.

 

As far as Gordon, he was pretty good from 2011-2014, but he has also had some pretty mediocre years. I don't think I would take his 2015 over Fowler's, and I certainly wouldn't be in a hurry to give Gordon a big long term deal.

 

I think it's pretty darn realistic for Soler to reach Gordon's level of offensive production in the next 1-2 seasons, and Soler is much better looking.

 

Well Gordon's mediocre years were the years he spent acclimating to major league baseball after being one of the most hyped prospects of the 2000's. Between him and Matt Wieters, scouts and analysts were hyping them up like they were gonna be the GOAT of their era it seemed like. It took Gordon a few years to find his groove and in 2011 that's when he started being a consistent, valuable MLB player. It was also the year he became a full time LF'er, after being moved off 3B in the middle of 2010. Since being in LF Gordon has arguably been one of the best overall left fielders in baseball.

 

His 2015 doesn't look as good as Fowler's because his numbers were down this past season due to his injury most likely. He had a Grade 2 groin strain in July and was out until September. There was a stretch from the middle of September to the end of the season where he slumped and went 10 for 56 (.178 AVG). Could be plausible that the groin issue was preventing him from going max effort, but the fact is his offensive production suffered and really knocked his numbers down a peg. He was probably headed to the ASG before his injury (was batting .279 with 11 HR on July 9th) and probably would've finished consistently with his previous numbers.

 

Only thing about Gordon that worries me is his age (he'll be 32 in 2 months) and, as such, how big his contract will be. I have the utmost confidence in his abilities to be productive and valuable, I just have no clue how long it will last before he starts declining due to his age and since he's been one of the most valuable LF'ers in baseball, how many years that's going to put the Cubs on the hook for if they can sign him.

 

Also, Soler's offensive profile is pretty different from Gordon's so comparing the two is kinda like apples and oranges. Soler has been profiled as one of the strongest hitters in the game and if/when he can figure it out he'll likely be a 30HR type of guy, but Gordon is never gonna be that guy. At his absolute best I'd expect Soler to put up at least one .900+ OPS season with a bunch more in the mid .800's or higher, Gordon is more of a mid-high .700's to mid .800's OPS guy with stellar defense type player, which is immensely valuable in his environment. They're kinda two different players so it's hard to compare the two, IMO.

 

Plus if Soler still ends up needing a couple years before he starts consistently mashing (it took world destroying super prospect Alex Gordon 4 years to find his stroke so anything is possible), the difference between Soler and Gordon could be a chasm of WAR. Gordon has been worth 25.2 fWAR over the previous 5 seasons (and was worth 6.6 just a year earlier in 2014). We know that Gordon would provide immediate value and instantly help the team win vs. waiting for Soler to figure it out which could be next year or it could be two years from now. He's a bit of a wild card at this point. He looked good to end the year this season, but he looked good at the end of 2014, too, and we can see how well his 2015 went. To me, if singing Gordon means Soler has to go, it basically comes down to whether or not you want the immediate confidence you get in putting Gordon out there, or rolling the dice and hoping Soler is more feast instead of famine.

 

I'm kinda torn either way. Love Soler and what he can do, but we can't see the future. If we knew it was gonna take a couple more years for him to piece it together, I'd rather have Gordon and trade Soler while he still has some big value to help the team elsewhere. But Soler is the type of player who might end up crushing 30 dongs next year and you don't want to miss out on those early years of affordable power. It's a bothersome predicament.

[Cubbie Swagger]

Yeah, I wasn't so much comparing Soler and Gordon as players, just in the sense that Soler would be the odd man out. I would rather just keep Soler. Spending money on a corner outfielder right now doesn't seem wise.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think it's pretty darn realistic for Soler to reach Gordon's level of offensive production in the next 1-2 seasons, and Soler is much better looking.

 

It's also pretty darn realistic for Soler to never, ever reach Gordon's level of offensive production. Or even ever become an average MLB starter.

 

This team doesn't need high-risk, high-reward position players. We need to lock in as much certainty as feasible (I mean, it's still baseball) and add pitching depth. Signing Gordon and trading Soler would address both of those.

[Sammy Sofa]

As appealing as Soler's potential is, last season made him a really big question mark. Gordon isn't a sexy move, but barring injury he's about as close a lock as you can hope for.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I know this topic has been brought up on this site before, but is it possible to quantify how hard his historically BS called strike zone messed up his offensive numbers this season? How much better can we expect him to look when sliders and fastballs a foot off the plate don't turn into strike 3s? How much more power can he generate when he's not protecting that part of the zone? Would his grin become even sexier?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I know this topic has been brought up on this site before, but is it possible to quantify how hard his historically BS called strike zone messed up his offensive numbers this season? How much better can we expect him to look when sliders and fastballs a foot off the plate don't turn into strike 3s? How much more power can he generate when he's not protecting that part of the zone? Would his grin become even sexier?

 

:roll:

[imb]

Yeah, this is the perfect opportunity to trade Soler for some pitching or whatever and pick up a 3-win certainty OF in his place. It's completely reasonable (based on his playoff performance) that he is that or more by this year even, but it's probably not worth the risk.

[Guest]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

[Cubswin11]

Is Gordon in RF next year, at age 32, and thru the life of his next contract that much of a certainty to be a 3 WAR+ a year player? I don't have a problem trading Soler in the right deal and get he still has a lot of questions. I just don't necessarily think Gordon is the guy to replace him with for stability/certainty. Edited December 7, 2015 by Cubswin11

[Cubbie Swagger]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

Because Lackey is old and Hammel and Hendricks aren't very good.

 

As far as Soler, maybe it's just cuz I have a man crush on him, but I don't see him flopping. Sure, there's a chance he might not reach his absolute ceiling, but I think his worst case scenario is better than most people give him credit for. Just my opinion.

[Guest]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

Because Lackey is old and Hammel and Hendricks aren't very good.

 

 

Sigh. Lackey is, in fact, old. Hendricks is good. Hammel is a very good fifth starter.

 

We need depth, yes. We don't need to replace Hendricks or Hammel.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

[Guest]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

 

Ok, your semantics about terminology aside, that changes nothing about what I'm saying.

[Cubswin11]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

And we kinda already have that in Richard, Wood, and maybe Pierce Johnson later in the year.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

 

Ok, your semantics about terminology aside, that changes nothing about what I'm saying.

 

The point is we need a sixth starting pitcher every bit as much as we need a CFer or anything else. Given the attrition rate of pitchers, your base number you aim for should probably be six and not five, so we're still one short.

 

We need another rotation-caliber SP as much as we need a starting CFer.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And we kinda already have that in Richard, Wood, and maybe Pierce Johnson later in the year.

 

 

Sucks, they have little interest in him starting, and sucks.

[Clem Fandango]

Is Gordon in RF next year, at age 32, and thru the life of his next contract that much of a certainty to be a 3 WAR+ a year player? I don't have a problem trading Soler in the right deal and get he still has a lot of questions. I just don't necessarily think Gordon is the guy to replace him with for stability/certainty.

 

I assume the outfield at Kauffman is a bit larger than Wrigley so perhaps the transition wont be all that difficult. I assume it also hinges on who they acquire for CF. Plus in an injury shortened year Gordon was still worth 2.8 fWAR. Unless he gets the yips I would fully expect a 3+ win season our of him at either corner. Plus Soler, despite his upside, has been somewhat babied because of his own injury history, which he was unable to avoid this season again on multiple occasions. In Soler injury shortened year he was worth 0.1 fWAR.

 

I'm not necessarily advocating a trade of Soler or signing of Gordon, but I would totally understand if the FO went that direction and be fine with that decision for reasons IMB mentioned above.

[KrisBryantisaBeast]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

And we kinda already have that in Richard, Wood, and maybe Pierce Johnson later in the year.

 

I don't want the Cubs to have to count on any of these guys to start a bunch of games for us next year.

[Guest]

Aside from depth guys, I'm having a hard time seeing why we need to get any more starting pitchers

 

Your sixth guy isn't really "depth." He is more likely to be in the rotation than not

 

Ok, your semantics about terminology aside, that changes nothing about what I'm saying.

 

The point is we need a sixth starting pitcher every bit as much as we need a CFer or anything else. Given the attrition rate of pitchers, your base number you aim for should probably be six and not five, so we're still one short.

 

We need another rotation-caliber SP as much as we need a starting CFer.

 

 

 

 

We do not need a sixth starting pitcher as much as we need a starting centerfielder you [expletive] lunatic.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The gap between whatever CF is still out there to acquire and Baez in CF is smaller than the gap between whatever pitcher we could get for Soler and Clayton Richard.

[Guest]

For fucks sake, the tier of starting pitcher we need is not the type of thing you trade actual assets for. What kind of pitcher do you actually want them putting in this role?

 

Hell, Wood is just fine

[Hairyducked Idiot]

For [expletive] sake, the tier of starting pitcher we need is not the type of thing you trade actual assets for. What kind of pitcher do you actually want them putting in this role?

 

Hell, Wood is just fine

 

For a team with our ambitions, we need six starters of at least the Hammel/Hendricks/Lackey caliber.

 

I want something like what the Cardinals had last year, where Wainwright gets hurt and they don't even flinch. We're one tweaked elbow in Februrary away from a Lester/Lackey/Hendricks/Hammel/Richard rotation, and that's a lot scarier to me than having a crappy CFer.