Minor League Pitcher of the Year

[Tim]

At the risk of being mocked endlessly (no, there won't be a cash reward), let's pick a minor league player of the year and minor league pitcher of the year.

 

The criteria can be anything you want, just explain your answer.

[Tryptamine]

Ryan Williams.

[Guest]

Ryan Williams.

Easy choice.

[ctcf]

I was just going to post Williams. While it's probably not the sexiest choice, he zipped through the system and honestly, could quite conceivably be a back of the rotation option coming out of Spring Training next year which is just nuts. That makes him my number 1.

 

After that, I really like what I saw from Pierce Johnson when he got his time in this year.

Edited September 8, 2015 by ctcf

[Guest]

Ryan Williams.

 

Yep. Reached AA less than year after getting drafted, 2.79/2.86 ERA/FIP in a very healthy sample, elite HR prevention, and enough velocity and results with hit prevention to think he can keep going with a less-than-exhilirating K rate.

[Guest]

Edwards Jr - Easily the most dominant of the pitchers in the system this year. I'm an optimist about the walks, but beyond that probably the best bet for an impact arm in the system right now, even if its "only" as a reliever.

The guy that was 10th in FIP (out of the pitchers I have in my tracking list) was easily the most dominant? Heck, David Garner had nearly the strikeout rate and less than half the walks. He's nowhere near the prospect status of CJr, but that isn't really what determines the answer to this particular question for me.

[davell]

Williams is an easy choice.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

How do you calculate minor league FIP? "The same way you do major league FIP" wouldn't be my first thought, and my guess is thats the formula used. Beyond the Ks, I really think Edwards' hit and home run rates get undersold. They're a big part of the dominance. IIRC from a post on minorleagueball, his batted ball profile this year was mostly ground balls and non-pulled fly balls. Excellent season in a new role, walks be gosh darned.

 

Williams is a good pick in a Logan Watkins/Nick Sawyer kind of way. I'd give him the title just because it looks good on the trade bait resume.

 

Williams is a good pick because he had the best season of any of our minor league pitchers.

 

I would probably have to go through at least 3 or 4 guys before getting to Edwards for this award. Just off the top of my head: Williams, Markey, and Pierce Johnson all had better seasons.

 

For one, they were starters. They pitched more innings. And they were more successful in those innings.

 

I know you keep saying over and over, "Ah, forget about the walks." But, it's hard to do that when he walked like 7 guys per 9 innings. It was a pretty horrible year for him, mainly because he is a much, much better prospect than those guys and didn't pitch like it.

[Guest]

I agree with Duke's top three - Williams, Markey and Johnson (who is knocked a bit for having fewer innings).

[CubsWin]

Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.

 

If Duane Underwood hadn't gotten injured and missed 2 months, he would've made this choice a lot harder. It's unusual for a short season guy to even get a mention for this award because of the lack of playing time, but Oscar De La Cruz's season was pretty special. His emergence from being an unheralded IFA signing to someone on par with Carson Sands and Justin Steele is impressive. He gets an honorable mention from me.

[CubsWin]

Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.

 

It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.

You'll get no argument from me that Edwards isn't a very good pitching prospect. His numbers speak for themselves. In fact I wrote a post earlier this year comparing his OppBA, HR rate and K% to the minor league numbers of current successful major leaguers. Those three stats are keys for me when evaluating a pitcher.

 

Walk rate is as well, of course, and his walks this year were concerning. Going back over his career, he's never struggled with walks like this before which gives me hope that it won't plague him in the future for too long. But it seemed to come on when he returned from his DL stint with a shoulder injury late in 2014, and he's yet to have an extended period of time where he hasn't walked hitters at a pretty decent clip.

 

There is a small sample of his last 8 appearances where he was more like his pre-injury self. Since July 27th, 10.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R (unearned), 4 BB, 13 Ks. Hopefully, he can carry this type of performance forward.

 

But, again, this discussion is about the pitcher with the best minor league season. IP play a big roll in that distinction. Carl threw 55.1 innings. Ryan Williams - 141.2. That sort of knocks Edwards out of the race right there. Ryan isn't half the prospect Carl is, but that's not the criteria for this award.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Horrible year? Not even kinda sorta, but I'm down to agree to disagree. It's whatever because guys like Williams and Markey often win these kind of org awards, but this was not a horrible year for Edwards.

 

I don't think he was horrible. I just think it was a horrible year for him, being that he entered the year in most people's Top 100. I guess, in the sense that he stayed healthy after dealing with injury last year, I shouldn't say horrible. Because it would have been worse if he just didn't pitch. But, a Top 100 prospect being moved to the pen and then walking around 18% of hitters he faced is not a good thing.

 

And, yeah, guys like Williams and Markey often win these org awards because they have better seasons than prospects that are ranked higher than them. I'm not saying Markey is better than Edwards, just that he had a better year.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

Minor League Pitcher of the Year is very different from the organization's best pitching prospect. It's the prospect who had the best season. And that clearly goes to Ryan Williams. On the year, 14-3, 2.16, 98/18 K/BB, 0.90 WHIP, .214 OppBA. On top of all that, his story is the best. 10th rounder made good, jumping from Low-A to AA and still performing well.

 

It's more about how good Edwards was this year. We're talking a guy who struck out 1/3 of the batters he faced, allowed 8 XBHs - 7 of them doubles, allowed a sub-.500 OPS including a sub-.300 OBP and sub-.150 BAA....These are some dominant numbers. That he happened to already be the best pitching prospect is coincidence, I was on the fence about him until this performance.

 

How were you on the fence about Edwards until this performance? He's literally always struck out a ton of guys, limited extra-base hits, and been, generally, unhittable. He's done this year what he's always done, in that regard. Except, now, he is walking guys at a rate that would make Carlos Marmol blush. And, he's not even starting anymore.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ryan Williams: full season of consistant good numbers.

[mul21]

Ryan Williams: full season of consistant good numbers.

 

There is no 'a' in the word consistent. But you are, in fact, very consistent.........ly bad at spelling it.

[Gilby]

Schlitter was pretty dominant out of the pen.

[CubsWin]

The starter/reliever thing is irrelevant to me. Williams definitely gets points for his innings total, and he's a reasonable/sensible choice for what is, often enough, a pretty weak indicator of an award.

 

This is how I see Edwards' season in the minors:

 

- BAA below .150

- OBPA below .300

- SLG below .200 (!!!!!)

- ~33% K rate

- ~16% K-BB%

- 8 XBHs allowed, 7 of them doubles

 

No other pitcher in the system has numbers like that, let alone in a new role at AA/AAA. To me, he's the only arm in the minors who performed his way into a position to make an impact on the Cubs. That's the goal of a minor league player in the end.

If you want to ignore the impact of innings pitched, go right ahead. If you want to ignore the history of what this award typical has meant and create your own definition, go right ahead.

 

Once again, the award goes to the pitcher with the best season. Not the best pitcher. Wait, lots of people have said that a lot already. Never mind. Carry on...

[CubsWin]

If you want to ignore the impact of innings pitched, go right ahead. If you want to ignore the history of what this award typical has meant and create your own definition, go right ahead.

 

Once again, the award goes to the pitcher with the best season. Not the best pitcher. Wait, lots of people have said that a lot already. Never mind. Carry on...

 

The criteria can be anything you want, just explain your answer.

 

If you want to ignore the impact of having a pitcher hold hitters to a sub-.300 SLG and .500 OPS while K'ing 1/3 of them because he's not a starter, feel free.

I'm not ignoring them. I acknowledged them strongly in my first post to you, saying you won't get an argument from me on whether or not Edwards is a very good pitching prospect. I agree he's the best pitching prospect the Cubs currently have. Underwood and Cease are gaining on him but not there yet.

 

It seems though, given the award typically goes to the pitcher with the best season (not the best pitching prospect), you are ignoring the history of the award and the importance of innings pitched in your argument. If you want to change the context of the award to argue for your guy, go right ahead. I'm fine with that.