Front Office Thread

[Bull]

Wood counts if they want to use him that way.

 

That's what depth is. You don't want to use him that way, but can if necessary. that's why he's 6 or 7 of 5.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wood counts if they want to use him that way.

 

That's what depth is. You don't want to use him that way, but can if necessary. that's why he's 6 or 7 of 5.

 

Maybe I'm Mojoing a bit on what actually happened this year, but didn't they decline to use him as a 6 or 7, instead keeping him in the pen while they shuffled through guys?

[Guest]

maybe I'm missing something, but I feel good about the starting pitching both now and moving forward.

 

They have elite talent in Arrieta and Lester. Hendricks and Hamel sport 3.33 and 3.53 xFIPs respectively, good for 18th and 24th among qualifiers (ahead of Wach, Lynn and Lackey). Depth is there in the form of Wood, Cahill, Carl's Jr., Johnson and Underwood. I feel if you replace Hammel's production next year or slightly improve you're doing really well.

 

What am I missing?

okay, so now I remember the nine guys you mentioned.

 

The top four are all okay to great.

 

The Cubs obviously view Wood as a reliever at this point. Given the mess that the 5th starter role became during the year, they could have stretched him out at any time if they thought he could excel in that role. Given his salary, he's also very likely to be non-tendered this winter.

 

Cahill has been good in relief for the Cubs. He was awful in a bigger sample for the Braves. He's been mediocre throughout his career. He'd be a great guy to stash at AAA if he'd agree to it.

 

I think the ship has sailed on Carl's Jr to be a starter. Even if they move him back to that role, he'd be severely limited in IP next year.

 

Johnson and Underwood are flat out not ready.

 

You missed that the Cubs still have Turner coming back from injury as an option next year.

 

 

So...to answer your question about the nine guys:

 

- The first five are the same if you line up Wood fifth.

- Jackson had much more success in his career and has much better stuff than Cahill.

- Wada had success last year and there was reason to believe he could hold down the fifth starter role this year. Edwards is a reliever.

- Turner has had success at the big league level and Johnson has some big red flags in his AA performance.

- Doubront may not have been a good bet, but he was certainly a better bet than Underwood who has never pitched above A+ and couldn't get k's at that level.

 

Fundamentally, other than the guys in common the depth from this spring is better in every way.

[Banedon]

It's easy to feel OK about your depth when your top 4 stayed healthy and had overall good years, so your crappy fifth starters didn't matter.

 

Yeah, that was a really remarkable thing for us this year.

[Bull]

I guess I should make a point before my lunch is over. I don't think there's anything wrong with adding pitching, but I don't think it's a dire need. I'd would be ecstatic adding Price. I'd also be happy adding two Hammel's. When you have a 95 win team, you find ways replace the production of guys like Fowler and Hammel. You find small ways to improve, and you find ways to supplement In case someone (aka Castro this year) falls off a cliff. If one of those Fowler or Hammel replacements can be a big step forward and stay within budget: bonus.

[sneakypower]

so just give Jhoulys Chacin 1y/4m or whatever, sign Bud Norris to a minor league deal and this stupid problem is fixed, cool

[jersey cubs fan]

I guess I should make a point before my lunch is over. I don't think there's anything wrong with adding pitching, but I don't think it's a dire need.

 

It's a dire need if you want to have a good shot at the 1 seed next year.

[RammyFanny]

I guess I don't get why people are arguing like it's either A) sign Price or B) fix the depth. You can still fix the depth and sign Price.

 

Signing Price increases the depth a ton on his own, and it's not like it's some impossible task to use the absolute stockpile of trade chips we have to trade for more cheap depth. And that's not even accounting for the usual 1 year prove it deals that will be out there.

 

Sure it would suck if a big money guy got hurt, but the upside to running out Arrieta/Price/Lester for 3 straight days is insane.

[Guest]

I guess I should make a point before my lunch is over. I don't think there's anything wrong with adding pitching, but I don't think it's a dire need. I'd would be ecstatic adding Price. I'd also be happy adding two Hammel's. When you have a 95 win team, you find ways replace the production of guys like Fowler and Hammel. You find small ways to improve, and you find ways to supplement In case someone (aka Castro this year) falls off a cliff. If one of those Fowler or Hammel replacements can be a big step forward and stay within budget: bonus.

You keep saying "replace Hammel". We still have him under contract next year. I see no reason to be in a rush to replace him at this point. Let him have another great first half and trade him at the deadline next year.

 

What I'd really like to do is:

 

1) Sign Heyward

 

2a) Sign one of Price, Cueto, Zimmerman, Shark. We're not signing Price and Heyward, but he's listed here for completeness.

2b) Re-sign Fowler and trade Soler+ for solid pitching (Carrasco or Quintana is the dream, but whatever is the best option)

 

3) Trade Castro & Coghlan for minor league pitching, at least one of which we hope to be able to plug into the rotation in the second half. Castro should still have enough value to bring back a really solid prospect or two at this point

 

4) Sign/trade for some relief depth

 

5) Cut Wood and make other adjustments as necessary to fit the above salaries.

[Guest]

You can do both, but it's trickier. Once you sign a big name FA, no FA with any real alternatives is going to sign on to compete to be the 5th starter. And we've been over how there's pretty much no existing/farm options, so you're forced to trade for depth. That has its benefits because you can potentially get a guy with options, but it's the only avenue.

[sneakypower]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

[RammyFanny]

You can do both, but it's trickier. Once you sign a big name FA, no FA with any real alternatives is going to sign on to compete to be the 5th starter.

 

That exact same scenario is still there when you sign/trade for the first good pitcher with the "depth plan" though. With either plan you are going to have to tell the second pitcher you get that he will have to compete with Hammel/Hendricks.

 

I guess I should make a point before my lunch is over. I don't think there's anything wrong with adding pitching, but I don't think it's a dire need. I'd would be ecstatic adding Price. I'd also be happy adding two Hammel's. When you have a 95 win team, you find ways replace the production of guys like Fowler and Hammel. You find small ways to improve, and you find ways to supplement In case someone (aka Castro this year) falls off a cliff. If one of those Fowler or Hammel replacements can be a big step forward and stay within budget: bonus.

You keep saying "replace Hammel". We still have him under contract next year. I see no reason to be in a rush to replace him at this point. Let him have another great first half and trade him at the deadline next year.

 

Yeah, I don't get it either.

 

Hammel xFIP by month:

 

April: 3.20

May: 3.05

June: 3.39

July: 4.55

August: 3.47

Sept/Oct: 3.90

 

For all the arguing about depth, this guy might be your 6th starter after you'd sign Price.

[Guest]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

[Guest]

You can do both, but it's trickier. Once you sign a big name FA, no FA with any real alternatives is going to sign on to compete to be the 5th starter.

 

That exact same scenario is still there when you sign/trade for the first good pitcher with the "depth plan" though. With either plan you are going to have to tell the second pitcher you get that he will have to compete with Hammel/Hendricks.

 

It exists, but to a different degree. It also depends on who the first pitcher is.

[Guest]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

 

I'm not certain about Wood's future, but he's certainly given reason for optimism as a pen arm.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 

17th of 126 RP w/ 50 IP in FIP, just ahead of Betances and Robertson(and Rondon).

[Guest]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

 

I'm not certain about Wood's future, but he's certainly given reason for optimism as a pen arm.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=50&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,a

 

17th of 126 RP w/ 50 IP in FIP, just ahead of Betances and Robertson(and Rondon).

He falls to 36th when you sort by xFIP. Unless you're a big believer in his magical ability to limit HR/FB

[sneakypower]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

You've always disliked Wood more than he deserves

 

he's given us something like $25m in surplus value the last 3 years, and he's been worth $10m this year, just going by replacement value - a threshold that's mostly eluded us in RP bargain bin shopping (Soriano, Hunter, Medina, Coke, Russell)

[KingCubsFan]

Castro should still have enough value to bring back a really solid prospect or two at this point

 

Why? He was available for free last month and nobody wanted him. I know he's had a good month, but I doubt that's rebuilt his trade value to the point where somebody is taking on his contract and giving something of value.

[Guest]

He falls to 36th when you sort by xFIP. Unless you're a big believer in his magical ability to limit HR/FB

 

If the downside is him being in the top quartile of relievers, I'm okay with that.

[Guest]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

You've always disliked Wood more than he deserves

 

he's given us something like $25m in surplus value the last 3 years, and he's been worth $10m this year, just going by replacement value - a threshold that's mostly eluded us in RP bargain bin shopping (Soriano, Hunter, Medina, Coke, Russell)

I appreciate what he's done this year. He's essentially been lefty Strop (in generally lower leverage situations). But I wouldn't be excited about paying Strop $6-7M, either.

[Guest]

Castro should still have enough value to bring back a really solid prospect or two at this point

 

Why? He was available for free last month and nobody wanted him. I know he's had a good month, but I doubt that's rebuilt his trade value to the point where somebody is taking on his contract and giving something of value.

He was never available for free. Had he been claimed, the Cubs would have worked out a trade or pulled him back.

 

And yes, he has really boosted his stock quite a bit the past two months.

[Guest]

He falls to 36th when you sort by xFIP. Unless you're a big believer in his magical ability to limit HR/FB

 

If the downside is him being in the top quartile of relievers, I'm okay with that.

What makes you believe that a huge bump in his strikeout rate is the downside of possible projections?

[Guest]

Castro should still have enough value to bring back a really solid prospect or two at this point

 

Why? He was available for free last month and nobody wanted him. I know he's had a good month, but I doubt that's rebuilt his trade value to the point where somebody is taking on his contract and giving something of value.

 

I've shared this sentiment before, but 'Castro clearing waivers means the baseline for his trade value is literally zero' is simply not true. Teams have different motivations and risk tolerances in August, and generally the default is letting a player pass through waivers out of courtesy if nothing else. We're 10 months removed from Matt Kemp's corpse and bloated contract getting insane value in trade, and he didn't have Starlin's youth, health, positional advantage, friendlier contract, or insane September to promote optimism.

[Guest]

He falls to 36th when you sort by xFIP. Unless you're a big believer in his magical ability to limit HR/FB

 

If the downside is him being in the top quartile of relievers, I'm okay with that.

What makes you believe that a huge bump in his strikeout rate is the downside of possible projections?

 

The same reason I'd love to see Cahill back as a pen arm.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/9884_P_FA_20150929.png

[sneakypower]

smh people talking about cutting Wood like they never noticed how godawful we are at finding RPs in FA...i'll keep the guy who's 2nd on the team in RP WAR thanks

At that price? meh.

 

You've always liked Wood more than he deserves.

You've always disliked Wood more than he deserves

 

he's given us something like $25m in surplus value the last 3 years, and he's been worth $10m this year, just going by replacement value - a threshold that's mostly eluded us in RP bargain bin shopping (Soriano, Hunter, Medina, Coke, Russell)

I appreciate what he's done this year. He's essentially been lefty Strop (in generally lower leverage situations). But I wouldn't be excited about paying Strop $6-7M, either.

what's the alternative?

more Coke/Soriano/Russell flyers? we're pretty awful at those

in-house graduation? the cupboard is pretty bare there, too

 

it may be worthwhile to recall that $4.5m on the FA market gets you a pitcher coming off arm injury and a 6.49 FIP / 4.58 xFIP / 4.68 ERA...