2016 MLB Draft Discussion

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Kiley McDaniel on the top 2016 and even 2017 prospects: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/20162017-mlb-draft-rankings-ridiculously-early-edition/

 

2016:

 

1. Alec Hansen, RHP, Oklahoma

2. Riley Pint (18.6), RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS), LSU commit

3. Blake Rutherford (19.0), CF, Chaminade Prep HS (CA), UCLA commit

4. Nick Banks, RF, Texas A&M:

5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL), No commit

 

Note: After talking to some sources that have seen most or all of these top 5 players, this seemed like the cutoff for the elite, potential strong 1-1 choices and you could put them in almost any oder. For reference, there is maybe one of those players in the 2015 draft crop, so to already have at least five (and you could argue for another five that I identify below) this early in the process, particularly from the prep side, is a great sign for the top of this draft class. I’ll be a little more brief in my notes for the rest of the top 30.

[CubInOK]

5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL)

What a MFer.

 

FDB

[Cubswin11]

So what's the strategy good teams take when they are picking 20 or later? Or I should ask what are some type of moves we should expect this front office to make picking later? HS guys who drop for signability? College guys with safer floors (so we can keep pumping talent to MLB to the minors in a smaller window)?

[SouthSideRyan]

We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.

[Cubswin11]

We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.

Forgot about that whole FA rule... But yeah, hopefully we don't have one

[Guest]

5. Austin Bergner (19.1), RHP, Windemere Prep HS (FL)

What a MFer.

 

FDB

 

Same HS as Nick Gordon.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

MFer Nick Gordon

[toonsterwu]

Kiley put Connor Jones at 8, I think, but if you only take his 2nd half of this season ... he'd be up there top 5. He's gotten that much better, particularly once the pressure shifted to him when Nate Kirby got hurt. If he goes like this all of 2016, I wouldn't be surprised if Jones is 1-1. The breaking ball's gotten better. He's got the frame, and the changeup is still quality, while still able to generate groundballs. I have enough concerns on Hansen and Puk that I don't think they are locks to stay there, and a good, top college arm likely tops most prep guys, unless prep guy is some super-elite level talent.

 

Of course, Jones scuffled in the first half a bit, so he really needs a dominant 2016 to solidify his case as a top 5-10 guy.

 

Decided to go look at Kiley's list ... Has the elite up to 7 now.

 

As for 2017, it's obviously way early to tell, but I have my doubts Bukauskus stays that high. He's ... normal human height, but really undersized for a pitcher. There's some effort as well. A long way to go.

 

Pavin Smith that high is a bit ... odd. I love the bat. The bat is really good, and he's going to get a lot stronger with a lot more pop, but he's a 1st/LF guy. Not Vogelbach, but as he gets bigger/stronger, likely becomes below average in the OF. Hard to see that type staying that high. If there is one UVA guy that I'd be curious about, it'd be Adam Haseley, but there's a lot of work to do. Derek Casey (who the Cubs were reportedly interested in) will likely slot as a Saturday or Sunday starter next year, and could take big steps after showing signs this year as a weekday starter, then getting hurt. Really too far off to assess 2017.

 

___

 

That said, we should be way down this list, so only way we got any of the top guys is if some 2015 dynamic occurred where a bunch of guys get hurt/struggle and slide.

[Guest]

Fangraphs top Team USA prospects:

 

11-20: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/college-team-usa-top-20-prospects-nos-11-20/

 

1-10: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/college-team-usa-top-20-prospects-nos-1-10-3/

[apete6]

We shouldn't have a 1st round pick next year.

 

Couple months late, but now that Price has been traded, he won't require a pick (similar to Lester this year, though it didn't matter). So, we should still have a 1st round pick somewhere in the 20s unless we sign Heyward or someone like that instead of Price.

[Guest]

Ask BA: Who Is In The Mix To Go No. 1 In The 2016 Draft?

[toonsterwu]

My perspective of Jackson is somewhat biased. I know the reports and he's an intriguing arm, but two years of watching UVA bats get to him eventually ... just not that enthused with him overall. Probably more a testament to UVA bats, even last year's average lineup, than a knock on Jackson. I'm not sure he's a starter, though.

 

Total side note, but this looks like a good draft to get a solid college guy in the mid-late first. Obviously, a long way to go.

[davell]

So we pick 28th. Which certainly shows how great of a season we've had. But it pisses me off that we pick behind teams that are playing in divisional series immediately. I'm fine with the WC game, but I think that division winners with worse records should pick behind all WC teams.

[Guest]

Has anyone posted yet that Kiley is leaving FG to take a job with the Braves?

[Tryptamine]

Has anyone posted yet that Kiley is leaving FG to take a job with the Braves?

 

Wow, that is seriously a bummer. By far my favorite guy.

[davell]

I didn't know where to put it, but it definitely sucks. He had raised the bar quite a bit for what to expect from these guys, in my mind.

[Guest]

What do the experts think of this draft class? Is it deep (I hope)?

[Cubswin11]

What do the experts think of this draft class? Is it deep (I hope)?

I don't have any idea on the depth, but I do know that there is no clear 1.1 guy like a Harper or Strasburg.

[toonsterwu]

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now.

 

On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder.

 

That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now.

 

That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

[toonsterwu]

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now.

 

On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder.

 

That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now.

 

That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

[toonsterwu]

Looking at BA's college list ...http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/160109/ I'm somewhat ambivalent about the college class right now.

 

On the one hand, that's an excellent college class of arms to start the year. Now, pitchers ... you never know (I think it was, uh, 2006? when there was an awful spring, draft-wise, for a ton of preseason arms.) Still, this college crop seems to have it all - power arms, command guys, ceiling, floor. It looks like a really superb class of arms, and as of now, there looks to be good depth of arms through the first 5 rounds or so. Could see the two Vandy arms (Stone/Kilichowski) make big moves up the ladder.

 

That said, it's arms, and the college positional players, as of now, seem really ... somewhat underwhelming to me right now. I like Senzel's swing - looks nice and compact, with the potential for pop. Dunno, just seems like a weak crop as of now.

 

That said, a long way to go, and a lot of changes are bound to happen.

[Tryptamine]

Going to be hard to get motivated and learn all the names when the Cubs may even end picking until the second round.