If the Cubs win 90 games this year it'll be because

[Guest]

I feel like Olt has as much power potential as anyone, really. He put up OBPs of over .390 throughout the minors. I'm not saying he hits his ceiling often, I'm just saying it's a damn high ceiling.

 

even if olt's power and patience are as good as you're making them out to be, he'll never hit for enough average to OBP .390 in the majors

[bhogg]

because the cardinals died in a plane crash?

[Sammy Sofa]

because the cardinals died in a plane crash?

 

Do the Cubs and Cardinals have some kind of bizarre deal where they play each other more than 19 times this season?

[Guest]

because the cardinals died in a plane crash?

 

Do the Cubs and Cardinals have some kind of bizarre deal where they play each other more than 19 times this season?

 

also the cardinals went 10-9 against us last year

[SouthSideRyan]

I feel like Olt has as much power potential as anyone, really. He put up OBPs of over .390 throughout the minors. I'm not saying he hits his ceiling often, I'm just saying it's a damn high ceiling.

 

By that reasoning virtually everyone in baseball has all star ceiling

[XZero771679666304]

I feel like Olt has as much power potential as anyone, really. He put up OBPs of over .390 throughout the minors. I'm not saying he hits his ceiling often, I'm just saying it's a damn high ceiling.

 

even if olt's power and patience are as good as you're making them out to be, he'll never hit for enough average to OBP .390 in the majors

 

Almost certainly not, but if he can get to .240/.320, he'll be worth keeping around (or make him attractive enough to trade). There is a ton of power there, and hopefully he can make enough contact to get to it with some consistency.

 

I'm certainly not holding my breath, but it wouldn't shock me.

[Janelle-Alexis]

...in a surprising turn of events MLB shortened the season to 148 games.

[Guest]

Lester repeats his 2014, Arrieta doesn't drop off much, Hammel and Hendricks are both low 3's ERA's and the 5th spot isn't god awful.

 

One of Soler or Bryant hits fairly well and the other is at least ok. No significant drop off from Rizzo or Castro.

 

And health, of course.

[Guest]

Lester repeats his 2014, Arrieta doesn't drop off much, Hammel and Hendricks are both low 3's ERA's and the 5th spot isn't god awful.

 

One of Soler or Bryant hits fairly well and the other is at least ok. No significant drop off from Rizzo or Castro.

 

And health, of course.

 

if all of these things happen, especially the pitching ones, we might win 95-100.

[sontensei]

Cubs dont suck

[George Hayduke]

Lester repeats his 2014, Arrieta doesn't drop off much, Hammel and Hendricks are both low 3's ERA's and the 5th spot isn't god awful.

 

One of Soler or Bryant hits fairly well and the other is at least ok. No significant drop off from Rizzo or Castro.

 

And health, of course.

 

if all of these things happen, especially the pitching ones, we might win 95-100.

I was going to say something similar. Even with conservative projections, the Cubs are being pegged at 84 wins. It wouldn't take mountains moving for the Cubs to reach 90 wins.

 

In terms of overachieveing their projections...Lester/Arrieta combine for 8.5 wins, Soler puts up 3, average production from LF, 3 from Castro, 2 from Contra, 3 from Fowler, everyone else manages to be aournd their projections (not even counting Baez). That would get the Cubs pretty close to 90. Certainly not impossible to imagine such a scenario if things go well.

[Guest]

Lester repeats his 2014, Arrieta doesn't drop off much, Hammel and Hendricks are both low 3's ERA's and the 5th spot isn't god awful.

 

One of Soler or Bryant hits fairly well and the other is at least ok. No significant drop off from Rizzo or Castro.

 

And health, of course.

 

if all of these things happen, especially the pitching ones, we might win 95-100.

I was going to say something similar. Even with conservative projections, the Cubs are being pegged at 84 wins. It wouldn't take mountains moving for the Cubs to reach 90 wins.

 

In terms of overachieveing their projections...Lester/Arrieta combine for 8.5 wins, Soler puts up 3, average production from LF, 3 from Castro, 2 from Contra, 3 from Fowler, everyone else manages to be aournd their projections (not even counting Baez). That would get the Cubs pretty close to 90. Certainly not impossible to imagine such a scenario if things go well.

 

Eh, Fangraphs has us projected for 84. Lester projected 1.5 wins worse, Arrieta 2.5, so that would get us to 88 if they don't drop off. Hendricks is projected as mid to upper 3's and Hammel in the 3's, so add a couple wins for 90. Bryant is projected to be about a win worse and Castro is right where he was last year. Bryant is projected for about an .800 OPS and Soler between .750-.800 for a combined 5-6 WAR, which I think everyone here would take. So we're at 90-92 wins.

[Guest]

Lester repeats his 2014, Arrieta doesn't drop off much, Hammel and Hendricks are both low 3's ERA's and the 5th spot isn't god awful.

 

One of Soler or Bryant hits fairly well and the other is at least ok. No significant drop off from Rizzo or Castro.

 

And health, of course.

 

if all of these things happen, especially the pitching ones, we might win 95-100.

I was going to say something similar. Even with conservative projections, the Cubs are being pegged at 84 wins. It wouldn't take mountains moving for the Cubs to reach 90 wins.

 

In terms of overachieveing their projections...Lester/Arrieta combine for 8.5 wins, Soler puts up 3, average production from LF, 3 from Castro, 2 from Contra, 3 from Fowler, everyone else manages to be aournd their projections (not even counting Baez). That would get the Cubs pretty close to 90. Certainly not impossible to imagine such a scenario if things go well.

 

Eh, Fangraphs has us projected for 84. Lester projected 1.5 wins worse, Arrieta 2.5, so that would get us to 88 if they don't drop off. Hendricks is projected as mid to upper 3's and Hammel in the 3's, so add a couple wins for 90. Bryant is projected to be about a win worse and Castro is right where he was last year. Bryant is projected for about an .800 OPS and Soler between .750-.800 for a combined 5-6 WAR, which I think everyone here would take. So we're at 90-92 wins.

 

Keep in mind Arrieta did that last year in 150 IP. He was damn near Kershaw great last year.

[SpongeWorthy]

The Will To Win

[Guest]

(rather than have yet another thread labeled finish this sentence)

 

Arrieta was better than Lester.

 

:D

[Aaron_Kennelly]

(rather than have yet another thread labeled finish this sentence)

 

Arrieta was better than Lester.

 

:D

 

That's a good call, David. Though, sontensei started a thread predicting that Chris Coghlan would be our second baseman, and that, somehow, actually did happen. So, I'm afraid he gets the Omniscient Poster of the Year title.

[Clem Fandango]

(rather than have yet another thread labeled finish this sentence)

 

Arrieta was better than Lester.

 

:D

 

That's a good call, David. Though, sontensei started a thread predicting that Chris Coghlan would be our second baseman, and that, somehow, actually did happen. So, I'm afraid he gets the Omniscient Poster of the Year title.

 

He also suggested one of the reasons he should play 2nd is because Addison Russell stinks, so... he's an idiot.

[Aaron_Kennelly]

(rather than have yet another thread labeled finish this sentence)

 

Arrieta was better than Lester.

 

:D

 

That's a good call, David. Though, sontensei started a thread predicting that Chris Coghlan would be our second baseman, and that, somehow, actually did happen. So, I'm afraid he gets the Omniscient Poster of the Year title.

 

He also suggested one of the reasons he should play 2nd is because Addison Russell stinks, so... he's an idiot.

 

Oh, I'm fully aware. I was just joking because (at the time that he said it) it might have been one of his zaniest suggestions. And I find it hilarious that Coghlan at second actually came to fruition. And then he bumped the thread to brag about it. :lol: It was top-notch trolling.

 

That thread shows how spot on Sofa was when he compared him to Donald Trump.

[Tracer Bullet]

aka, even kyle gets lucky once in a while, david.

[RynoRules]

Because Rodney currently sports a 300 ERA+ and a 4.20 FIP. That's the most awesome split ever.

[badger1679666666]

Lots of Olt felating in this thread pre-season.

[Guest]

Lots of Olt felating in this thread pre-season.

There was like one guy saying good things and a whole bunch shouting him down for being totally unrealistic (including me).

[badger1679666666]

Lots of Olt felating in this thread pre-season.

There was like one guy saying good things and a whole bunch shouting him down for being totally unrealistic (including me).

 

To be fair two and I'm not sure about the "whole bunch shouting him down" but I also did a quick skim of page one as I need to actually do work today :(

[SRQCub]

Lots of Olt felating in this thread pre-season.

There was like one guy saying good things and a whole bunch shouting him down for being totally unrealistic (including me).

 

Yeah, but that one guy was doing an awful lot of felating.

[Guest]

it'll be because they only went 4-11 down the stretch :-)