Offseason Rumors & Transactions Thread

[Deeg]

The sky is falling. Arguello actually wrote something coherent, somewhat skeptical of Cubs brass, and worth quoting:

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/11/cubs-need-more-than-hope-as-they-get-set-to-meet-with-lester/

 

Signing Lester doesn't just bring in a great pitcher, it heralds the end of a rebuilding era in a way that signing Hammel or any other second tier pitcher cannot. It tells us all that the Cubs are going for it now. They may not do it in 2015, but when you sign top free agents nearing the end of their prime you tell the world this: Soon.

 

It means they are willing to pay for what they need. They are no longer telling us our patience will be rewarded, they are showing us. And if a no-nonsense, playoff bejeweled stud arm like Lester wants to come here and win, then who is going to say the Cubs aren't becoming a preferred destination?

 

I would have been okay with missing on Lester if they had signed Martin. Disappointed, but ok. But to miss on their two main targets? If the Cubs lose out on Lester over anything except a ridiculous offer by Boston or some other team that comes out of nowhere, I am not going to be okay with it. Granted, it won't be the end of the world. Other options still remain, but if the Cubs come up empty on top tier talent, I won't pretend or rationalize this away. It would be a blow to our big hopes that this offseason would be the one where the Cubs showed everyone they were ready to take the next step. It would set things back because the Cubs would go into the next offseason with the same guarantees they have for this one, which is to say no guarantees at all.

 

Where have you gone, Cubs Den - Cub Nation turns its lonely eyes to you? Never thought I'd see the day.

 

Fact is, I think Arguello is pretty on-point here. As I posted a few months ago, Theo's philosophy of "we set the value a player is worth, and if they go over, we pass" sounds fine on paper. But the practical impact is "we're not going to sign any free agents coveted by other mid-market or large-market teams". Because the reality of FA is, the really desirable guys get overpaid. They get more than they're worth on the back end of their deals. If you're not willing to live with that, you may as well not even bother with first-tier FAs.

 

Rather than this manifesto, Theo really needs to go in saying "this is a guy we really need, and unless things get insane, we're willing to overpay to get him". That's just how FA works. Martin's deal looks like an overpay (Fangraphs says it isn't, FWIW) and I'm not specifically saying we needed to match it. But at some point Theo needs to prove the Cubs are serious - prove it to the rest of baseball, to the fans, and to the guys in his own organization. And that means at some point he has to overpay to get the guy he thinks can really make a difference. If he doesn't, and the Cubs come out of another off-season signing only castoffs and second-tier guys like Hammel or Masterson, there's no reason to take the Cubs seriously as a team that's willing to do whatever it takes to contend. Until Theo actually proves it, it's all talk - and talk, as they say, is cheap.

 

I can anticipate the rebuttal to this - the straw man that Theo just needs to be committed to the plan, and he shouldn't trash it by selling out to go crazy on a big-name FA. Except that overpaying for a FA isn't selling out the plan, and it isn't selling out the future for the present - it's making the commitment that the organization is willing to be bold and take financial risks to support what they've done with the farm system. In point of fact trading elite prospects for Hamels would be selling out the future a lot more than overpaying for Lester. The reality is, Jon Lester has become a very important figure for this organization - not just in baseball terms (where he's huge) but symbolically too. And like it or not, that matters.

Edited November 18, 2014 by Deeg

[Tyrant]

If you thought it was so great you could at least give him the benefit of a link back to the piece.

[Deeg]

If you thought it was so great you could at least give him the benefit of a link back to the piece.

 

Because people on this board don't know how to find Cubs Den?

[CUBZ99]

The sky is falling. Arguello actually wrote something coherent, somewhat skeptical of Cubs brass, and worth quoting:

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/cubs-den/2014/11/cubs-need-more-than-hope-as-they-get-set-to-meet-with-lester/

 

Signing Lester doesn't just bring in a great pitcher, it heralds the end of a rebuilding era in a way that signing Hammel or any other second tier pitcher cannot. It tells us all that the Cubs are going for it now. They may not do it in 2015, but when you sign top free agents nearing the end of their prime you tell the world this: Soon.

 

It means they are willing to pay for what they need. They are no longer telling us our patience will be rewarded, they are showing us. And if a no-nonsense, playoff bejeweled stud arm like Lester wants to come here and win, then who is going to say the Cubs aren't becoming a preferred destination?

 

I would have been okay with missing on Lester if they had signed Martin. Disappointed, but ok. But to miss on their two main targets? If the Cubs lose out on Lester over anything except a ridiculous offer by Boston or some other team that comes out of nowhere, I am not going to be okay with it. Granted, it won't be the end of the world. Other options still remain, but if the Cubs come up empty on top tier talent, I won't pretend or rationalize this away. It would be a blow to our big hopes that this offseason would be the one where the Cubs showed everyone they were ready to take the next step. It would set things back because the Cubs would go into the next offseason with the same guarantees they have for this one, which is to say no guarantees at all.

 

Where have you gone, Cubs Den - Cub Nation turns its lonely eyes to you? Never thought I'd see the day.

 

Fact is, I think Arguello is pretty on-point here. As I posted a few months ago, Theo's philosophy of "we set the value a player is worth, and if they go over, we pass" sounds fine on paper. But the practical impact is "we're not going to sign any free agents coveted by other mid-market or large-market teams". Because the reality of FA is, the really desirable guys get overpaid. They get more than they're worth on the back end of their deals. If you're not willing to live with that, you may as well not even bother with first-tier FAs.

 

Rather than this manifesto, Theo really needs to go in saying "this is a guy we really need, and unless things get insane, we're willing to overpay to get him". That's just how FA works. Martin's deal looks like an overpay (Fangraphs says it isn't, FWIW) and I'm not specifically saying we needed to match it. But at some point Theo needs to prove the Cubs are serious - prove it to the rest of baseball, to the fans, and to the guys in his own organization. And that means at some point he has to overpay to get the guy he thinks can really make a difference. If he doesn't, and the Cubs come out of another off-season signing only castoffs and second-tier guys like Hammel or Masterson, there's no reason to take the Cubs seriously as a team that's willing to do whatever it takes to contend. Until Theo actually proves it, it's all talk - and talk, as they say, is cheap.

 

I can anticipate the rebuttal to this - the straw man that Theo just needs to be committed to the plan, and he shouldn't trash it by selling out to go crazy on a big-name FA. Except that overpaying for a FA isn't selling out the plan, and it isn't selling out the future for the present - it's making the commitment that the organization is willing to be bold and take financial risks to support what they've done with the farm system. In point of fact trading elite prospects for Hamels would be selling out the future a lot more than overpaying for Lester. The reality is, Jon Lester has become a very important figure for this organization - not just in baseball terms (where he's huge) but symbolically too. And like it or not, that matters.

 

I agree with Arguello for the most part and agree that if you are going to sign a top free agent, you are going to have to pay market price. I don't mind Theo/Jed being cautious, but the Cubs are not a small market team and should have tons of flexibility to overpay for certain team needs.

[Guest]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

[Deeg]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

As long as you're content with trying to win like a small-market team, that's fine. The Royals and Devil Rays do have their successes from time to time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

101, 96, 89 has left some doubt as to their ability to put together a good baseball team using the non-spending methods you describe.

[Guest]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

As long as you're content with trying to win like a small-market team, that's fine. The Royals and Devil Rays do have their successes from time to time.

 

No one is saying don't spend money. The point here is that spending money itself is not some victory, sign, or similar landmark to be celebrated in itself. Just like you don't get credit for $/WAR titles, you don't get bonus wins because you took the risk of signing expensive FA. I can come up with offseasons I like that deal pretty much exclusively in FA and I can come up with offseasons I like that don't use it for anything more than filler, if that. Get the players that make you better and help you win, preferably now and in the future. Full stop.

[SouthSideRyan]

So how much is Trout worth now?

15/450-500?

 

For a speed guy?

[Guest]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

101, 96, 89 has left some doubt as to their ability to put together a good baseball team using the non-spending methods you describe.

 

oh god shut the [expletive] up

[Guest]

So how much is Trout worth now?

15/450-500?

 

For a speed guy?

lmao

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

101, 96, 89 has left some doubt as to their ability to put together a good baseball team using the non-spending methods you describe.

 

oh god shut the [expletive] up

 

I know, right? I really don't want to hear any more about how it's no big deal if we don't use our resources to get the best ballplayers we can.

[SouthSideRyan]

especially with Arizona potentially cash-strapped).

 

Has there been talk of this? I don't think any team is cash-strapped at this point.

[Guest]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

101, 96, 89 has left some doubt as to their ability to put together a good baseball team using the non-spending methods you describe.

 

oh god shut the [expletive] up

 

I know, right? I really don't want to hear any more about how it's no big deal if we don't use our resources to get the best ballplayers we can.

 

no, seriously, shut the [expletive] up loser

[Guest]

especially with Arizona potentially cash-strapped).

 

Has there been talk of this? I don't think any team is cash-strapped at this point.

 

idk but i love that there is a FO being run by tony larussa and dave stewart right now

 

they somehow managed to probably downgrade from towers

 

i wonder if the analytics guy they just hired is any better than the dude hendry hired to print out player profiles from espn.com

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

101, 96, 89 has left some doubt as to their ability to put together a good baseball team using the non-spending methods you describe.

 

oh god shut the [expletive] up

 

I know, right? I really don't want to hear any more about how it's no big deal if we don't use our resources to get the best ballplayers we can.

 

no, seriously, shut the [expletive] up loser

 

I mean, it's not their *fault* they were losing, because nobody can build a winner with the financial restrictions they've faced. You have to be able to spend to put together a winner.

[Guest]

I'm not one to normally care about how much money this player or that player got if he makes the Cubs better. I think Martin was a marginal, short-term upgrade over Wellington. It seems as if some of the blogs and internet geniuses are going apoplectic because the Cubs didn't give Martin that inflated contract. I don't think losing out on Martin is indicative of the Cubs not spending or not wanting to get better.

 

If they are second or third in the race for getting a top pitcher, I'm going to be upset though.

[Guest]

especially with Arizona potentially cash-strapped).

 

Has there been talk of this? I don't think any team is cash-strapped at this point.

 

It's my inference, but I don't think a terrible one. Last year's team was about 75 million and then they completely tanked so if anything they realized less revenue than expected when they ended up at 75 mil. Next year's team has 68 million guaranteed to 11 players, several of whom are bench guys or dead weight(Hill, Arroyo, Ross, Cahill). I don't think they're literally desperate to trade away salary, but I do think their lack of headroom could be a limiting factor, and Montero's a guy(unlike the 4 previously mentioned) you could trade away and free up his entire salary.

 

EDIT: And that 68 million does not include arbitration amounts for Trumbo, Reed, Hellickson, or Miley.

[RammyFanny]

I'm pretty sure Kyle is Rust Cohle who recently found out how to use the internet.

[SouthSideRyan]

The infatuation with FA and spending money is reaching critical mass. The Cubs need to get good players. FA is an opportunity to do that. So are trades, so are waiver claims. The idea that they need to prove some level of 'commitment' financially is silly. If they don't sign Lester and instead give fewer dollars to Justin Masterson(or trade for Ubaldo or give Doubront a rotation spot, the specifics aren't important) and that guy becomes another top of rotation stalwart like Arrieta, no one will remember by May. The players and their performance are more important than what a move signifies to the fans.

 

Of course the performance is more important, but Jon Lester is damn sure a better bet to be a top of the rotation stalwart than one of those 3 guys who were terrible last year. I mean I'll be excited if Jaxon becomes a 5 win pitcher next year too, but I'm not going to pin any offseason hopes on it.

[SouthSideRyan]

especially with Arizona potentially cash-strapped).

 

Has there been talk of this? I don't think any team is cash-strapped at this point.

 

It's my inference, but I don't think a terrible one. Last year's team was about 75 million and then they completely tanked so if anything they realized less revenue than expected when they ended up at 75 mil. Next year's team has 68 million guaranteed to 11 players, several of whom are bench guys or dead weight(Hill, Arroyo, Ross, Cahill). I don't think they're literally desperate to trade away salary, but I do think their lack of headroom could be a limiting factor, and Montero's a guy(unlike the 4 previously mentioned) you could trade away and free up his entire salary.

 

EDIT: And that 68 million does not include arbitration amounts for Trumbo, Reed, Hellickson, or Miley.

 

Cot's had them at 112.3M last year.

[Guest]

oh what the heck BR

[sneakypower]

anyone have any guesses as to what grandal would cost btw?

 

i think he's my preferred target at this point

 

I have no idea, but I'd love to see if they negatively value Maybin on top of Grandal. Early reports are that they want power hitters so not sure how much of a match is there.

maybe they could be fooled into taking Javy?

[Cubswin11]

Why would the Padres want to move Grandal?

[Thrilho]

My preference would be for Grandal, but I've got no idea what it would take to get him. If they can't, another option for left handed catcher platoon is Jason Castro. The Astros just picked up Hank Conger, so they may end up trading Castro (see articles at the end of the post.)

 

Castro positives:

- Career 9.0% BB rate. Was 6.6% in 2014, but had never been below 9% in pro baseball.

- Hits righties: career .333 wOBA, .334 OBP, .171 ISO, 23.2% K% (vs 32.4% against lefties)

- Improving pitch framer: 9.0 RAA in 2014 vs -3.9 in 2013

 

Negatives:

- Bad 2014 overall: .291 wOBA, .286 OBP, .144 ISO, 29.5% K rate, .294 BABIP

- Bad 2014 against righties: .296 wOBA, .290 OBP, .156 ISO, 28.8% K rate, .279 BABIP

- Career 26.5% K rate

- Fangraphs defensive values 2012-2014: -6.1, 1.0, -1.9

 

 

Potential mitigating factors for 2014:

He never had that much pop until the .209 ISO the posted in 2013. It was .129 in the minors and .144 in 2012. He may have changed his swing after/during 2013, and that could be the cause of his bad 2014. His LD% rates from 2012-2014 were 27.5%, 25.3%, and 19.6%.

 

Before that he was in the minors, so I can't say if the ~25% was way out of line, but he was a .293 minor league hitter with BABIPs ranging .330-.350. As a catcher without much pop, it seems like a fair bet he was hitting line drives.

 

So not sure if the FO wants another strikeout guy, but I could see it if they like his swing and pitch framing potential.

 

 

Here's an article on his pitch framing. It's from April 17, 2014, so it's a small sample size, but he did end up improving quite a bit this year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jason-castro-and-making-a-framer/

 

Castro good (2013):

http://www.faketeams.com/2014/1/20/5327658/catcher-profile-jason-castro

 

Castro disappointing (2014):

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jason-castro-disappoints/

 

 

Some rumor stuff:

 

“Because we have three major league catchers, I’ve had clubs inquire about all our catchers quite frankly,” said Luhnow. “So we need to figure out some resolution prior to Opening Day. There’s no urgency."

 

“A right-handed hitter complements Jason,” said Luhnow. “Conger’s better from the left side.”

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jason-castro

 

Seems available