Fangraphs/BP/BA Cubs Top Prospects List

[TruffleShuffle]

sickels originally wrote:

 

Grade A: Two

Grade A-: Two

Grade B+: Two

Grade B: Two

Grade B-: Five

Grade C+: 13

Grade C: 19

 

but he reconsidered and bumped up soler to A (presumably from A-).

 

i'll guess:

 

Grade A: bryant, soler, russell

Grade A-: schwarber

Grade B+: almora, edwards (i think sickels always liked edwards)

Grade B: pierce johnson, mckinney

Grade B-: torres, underwood, vogelbach, sands, tseng (think he'll have tseng higher than most others since he relies more heavily on stats)

[Splendid Splinter]

Did he mention anything about if there's any C+/borderline B- out of those 13 C+?

[gscool89]

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/12/7/7351045/chicago-cubs-top-20-prospects-for-2015

[Guest]

In Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Addison Russell, the Cubs have three of the top ten prospects in all of baseball. Kyle Schwarber isn't far behind, and the system boasts rapidly improving depth behind the top group, including on the mound.

 

It's nice to see Soler finally get that type of respect on an overall list.

[Guest]

johnsickels ‏@MinorLeagueBall 4m4 minutes ago

Kris Bryant max output: Jeff Bagwell. Middle output: Troy Glaus. Worst Case output: gets concussion, turns into Mike Olt.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

johnsickels ‏@MinorLeagueBall 4m4 minutes ago

Kris Bryant max output: Jeff Bagwell. Middle output: Troy Glaus. Worst Case output: gets concussion, turns into Mike Olt.

 

Burn in hell for even saying it, Sickels. Seriously.

[Little Slide Rooter]

johnsickels ‏@MinorLeagueBall 4m4 minutes ago

Kris Bryant max output: Jeff Bagwell. Middle output: Troy Glaus. Worst Case output: gets concussion, turns into Mike Olt.

 

Burn in hell for even saying it, Sickels. Seriously.

 

Eh, he could have just as easily said Brandon Wood or Ian Stewart. Olt's just a fresher comp. for any cant miss slugger who misses horribly.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Kris Bryant's worst case outcome is Javier Baez.

 

zing

[Guest]

Richie Sexson is Kris Bryant's worst outcome.

[Cubswin11]

Richie Sexson is Kris Bryant's worst outcome.

That's actually not a bad outcome, especially if he can produce at least league average results defensively wherever he ends up

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Um, Richie Sexson was awesome. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml

 

He was a sexy beast from 1999-2006, except for one year he only played twenty games. 39 and 34 HR in 05 and 06 playing half his games at Safeco.

[Guest]

Um, Richie Sexson was awesome. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml

 

He was a sexy beast from 1999-2006, except for one year he only played twenty games. 39 and 34 HR in 05 and 06 playing half his games at Safeco.

I know.

[rawaction]

johnsickels ‏@MinorLeagueBall 4m4 minutes ago

Kris Bryant max output: Jeff Bagwell. Middle output: Troy Glaus. Worst Case output: gets concussion, turns into Mike Olt.

 

Pat Burrell dammit!

[Clem Fandango]

I'm kind of thinking he could wind up being a right handed Adam Dunn, but with actually decent defense. Like 2004-2010 era Adam Dunn, when he averaged 26.9 on FG's offense metric. Dunn's fWAR was always low because of his defense (-25 average defense over that span [ouch]), but if you have a guy putting up that kind of offense with average defense he's probably an easy 5+ WAR player. Would anyone be surprised if Bryant put up this type of offensive line:

 

.247/.387/.540/.927 40HR 101RBI 35-2B 114BB 168K

[Guest]

I'm kind of thinking he could wind up being a right handed Adam Dunn, but with actually decent defense. Like 2004-2010 era Adam Dunn, when he averaged 26.9 on FG's offense metric. Dunn's fWAR was always low because of his defense (-25 average defense over that span [ouch]), but if you have a guy putting up that kind of offense with average defense he's probably an easy 5+ WAR player. Would anyone be surprised if Bryant put up this type of offensive line:

 

.247/.387/.540/.927 40HR 101RBI 35-2B 114BB 168K

 

Dunn struck out 18% of the time in the minors.

[Clem Fandango]

I'm kind of thinking he could wind up being a right handed Adam Dunn, but with actually decent defense. Like 2004-2010 era Adam Dunn, when he averaged 26.9 on FG's offense metric. Dunn's fWAR was always low because of his defense (-25 average defense over that span [ouch]), but if you have a guy putting up that kind of offense with average defense he's probably an easy 5+ WAR player. Would anyone be surprised if Bryant put up this type of offensive line:

 

.247/.387/.540/.927 40HR 101RBI 35-2B 114BB 168K

 

Dunn struck out 18% of the time in the minors.

 

Uhh... so did everyone else except Bagwell that's being used in these comparisons.

 

NAME: MLB K% (MiLB K%)

Bagwell: 16.5% (9.7%)

Glaus: 21.7% (20.3%)

Sexon: 23.4% (18.7%)

Burrell: 24% (19.9%)

Dunn: 28.6% (18.2%)

 

Dunn struck out less in the minors than the others not named Bagwell, but had the higher career K% in the majors. Given Bryant's K% is 26.7% right now, if anything Dunn is probably the more apt comparison if you're using K% and are assuming a player's K% will increase when facing MLB pitching as he's likely closest to a % Bryant will likely approach first.

Edited December 9, 2014 by The Logan

[Guest]

I'm kind of thinking he could wind up being a right handed Adam Dunn, but with actually decent defense. Like 2004-2010 era Adam Dunn, when he averaged 26.9 on FG's offense metric. Dunn's fWAR was always low because of his defense (-25 average defense over that span [ouch]), but if you have a guy putting up that kind of offense with average defense he's probably an easy 5+ WAR player. Would anyone be surprised if Bryant put up this type of offensive line:

 

.247/.387/.540/.927 40HR 101RBI 35-2B 114BB 168K

 

Dunn struck out 18% of the time in the minors.

 

Uhh... so did everyone else except Bagwell that's being used in these comparisons.

 

NAME: MLB K% (MiLB K%)

Bagwell: 16.5% (9.7%)

Glaus: 21.7% (20.3%)

Sexon: 23.4% (18.7%)

Burrell: 24% (19.9%)

Dunn: 28.6% (18.2%)

 

Dunn struck out less in the minors than the others not named Bagwell, but had the higher career K% in the majors. Given Bryant's K% is 26% right now, if anything Dunn is probably the more apt comparison if you're using K% and are assuming a player's K% will increase when facing MLB pitching as he's likely closest to a % Bryant will likely approach first.

 

I never really said any of the comparisons are all that apt.

 

I'm pretty concerned about Bryant's K rate.

[Guest]

Except maybe Olt

 

 

just kidding

[Clem Fandango]

Well really Dunn's K% is propped up from the last few seasons when his K% has been above 30% since 2010. Prior to his first 30% K rate in 2010 his average was 26.4%, right about what Bryant is at the moment in the minors (26.7%). So like I said, if Bryant can settle in to Adam Dunn numbers it wouldn't surprise me as his numbers would likely be the first ones he comes close to emulating based on the players listed. I'm actually kind of surprised no one else has made the comparison, at least from an offensive standpoint.

[apete6]

I'm kind of thinking he could wind up being a right handed Adam Dunn, but with actually decent defense. Like 2004-2010 era Adam Dunn, when he averaged 26.9 on FG's offense metric. Dunn's fWAR was always low because of his defense (-25 average defense over that span [ouch]), but if you have a guy putting up that kind of offense with average defense he's probably an easy 5+ WAR player. Would anyone be surprised if Bryant put up this type of offensive line:

 

.247/.387/.540/.927 40HR 101RBI 35-2B 114BB 168K

 

Dunn struck out 18% of the time in the minors.

 

Uhh... so did everyone else except Bagwell that's being used in these comparisons.

 

NAME: MLB K% (MiLB K%)

Bagwell: 16.5% (9.7%)

Glaus: 21.7% (20.3%)

Sexon: 23.4% (18.7%)

Burrell: 24% (19.9%)

Dunn: 28.6% (18.2%)

 

Dunn struck out less in the minors than the others not named Bagwell, but had the higher career K% in the majors. Given Bryant's K% is 26% right now, if anything Dunn is probably the more apt comparison if you're using K% and are assuming a player's K% will increase when facing MLB pitching as he's likely closest to a % Bryant will likely approach first.

 

I never really said any of the comparisons are all that apt.

 

I'm pretty concerned about Bryant's K rate.

 

Is there any "era" adjustment needed to K rates based on the higher K rates across baseball the past few years? Doubt it would make a huge difference, but it seems to be more "accepted" and "normal" to K a lot now vs. the early/mid 90s when those guys were in the minors.

[Guest]

Well really Dunn's K% is propped up from the last few seasons when his K% has been above 30% since 2010. Prior to his first 30% K rate in 2010 his average was 26.4%, right about what Bryant is at the moment in the minors (26.7%). So like I said, if Bryant can settle in to Adam Dunn numbers it wouldn't surprise me as his numbers would likely be the first ones he comes close to emulating based on the players listed. I'm actually kind of surprised no one else has made the comparison, at least from an offensive standpoint.

 

I expect he'll have a hard time striking out at a similar rate to his minor league rate in the major leagues

[Clem Fandango]

Well really Dunn's K% is propped up from the last few seasons when his K% has been above 30% since 2010. Prior to his first 30% K rate in 2010 his average was 26.4%, right about what Bryant is at the moment in the minors (26.7%). So like I said, if Bryant can settle in to Adam Dunn numbers it wouldn't surprise me as his numbers would likely be the first ones he comes close to emulating based on the players listed. I'm actually kind of surprised no one else has made the comparison, at least from an offensive standpoint.

 

I expect he'll have a hard time striking out at a similar rate to his minor league rate in the major leagues

 

I do too, but if we also anticipate Bryant to adapt and lower his K% over time, Dunn's comp will be the first he'll approach.

[Guest]

@BenBadler: My top 50 prospects list is in the Prospect Handbook. Half of my top 10 is just Cubs and Dodgers prospects.

[Cubswin11]

@BenBadler: My top 50 prospects list is in the Prospect Handbook. Half of my top 10 is just Cubs and Dodgers prospects.

Bryant, Soler, Russell, Pederson, Urias?

[Guest]

Seager might be one of the Dodgers, but yep.