Cubs sign Hammel

[Rob]

Is Hammel worth $6 mil? Sure. But I've liked all of our previous one year gambles on pitchers better at the time of the signing.

 

Maholm (thanks, option year!) > Feldman > Baker > Hammel.

[SouthSideRyan]

Agreed Rob, and down to the order. I don't know how much of that is based on my acceptance that the team will be [expletive] awful this year compared to my hopefulness in '12 and '13 and how much is Hammel just being the most boring acquisition imaginable.

[Guest]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cubs-idea-so-nice-theyre-trying-it-twice/

 

So what’s the hope, with Hammel? His most recent season was very much not good. He had an arm injury, and he turned 31 in September. But then, there’s this to consider:

 

BALTIMORE — The Orioles have placed pitcher Jason Hammel on the 15-day disabled list with right flexor mass tightness.

[...]

Hammel said the nagging issue first began in Spring Training, and it’s most noticeable on his slider.

[...]

“I figured I could pitch through it. As of right now, it’s really not what’s best for this team,” Hammel said. “I haven’t been pitching to my capability, and it’s really not worth going out there and further injuring myself.”

 

Hammel spent most of the year pitching through arm discomfort, and it’s easy to see how that could have a negative effect on his results. After he came back in September, he pitched well over a few weeks. Not that we can automatically just write everything off to a problem that’s now resolved, but it’s certainly possible. And prior to 2013, Hammel had a pretty intriguing track record.

 

In 2009, 123 different starters threw at least 100 innings. Hammel ranked

18th in FIP-

28th in xFIP-

 

 

In 2010, 140 different starters threw at least 100 innings. Hammel ranked

20th in FIP-

35th in xFIP-

 

 

In 2012, 128 different starters threw at least 100 innings. Hammel ranked

8th in FIP-

12th in xFIP-

 

What’s missing is a 2011 season during which Hammel was mostly miserable. The Rockies even bumped him to the bullpen for a time. There’s no easy way to explain what happened, although Hammel believes his problems were mental. What’s also missing is that Hammel injured his knee in 2012 and had surgery performed. Later on he aggravated the injury, before returning in the playoffs. But in 2009 and 2010, Hammel was a good starter in a terrible environment. And in 2012, when Hammel was healthy, he was among the very best starters in baseball. Though he wasn’t throwing eight or nine innings every turn, he matched Doug Fister in ERA-, David Price in FIP-, and Adam Wainwright in xFIP-. Hammel was probably the best starter on an Orioles team that played in October.

 

For a while, Hammel was pretty good in Colorado. The Orioles rescued him from that environment, and the first year, he was outstanding. What’s taken place between that year and the present are 26 appearances Hammel mostly made with discomfort in his arm. So he’s a fascinating buy-low, even for a bad team, because players on bad teams can quickly become players on contending teams. The Cubs are probably hoping for another mid-3s ERA and a contending team with a need and expendable youth.

 

Sometimes, it doesn’t work. A year ago, the Cubs also took a chance on Scott Baker, and he basically never did anything. The injury Hammel had last season is often a precursor for Tommy John surgery, and though Hammel opted to rest before things got that bad, you never know if he might be in trouble. He might pitch healthy and poorly, like he did in 2011. If Hammel were a better bet, he would’ve signed a better contract with a better team. There’s risk involved.

[SouthSideRyan]

Hammel was not a good starter in a terrible environment in '09 and '10. He was an average starter with good peripherals. FIP and xFIP are great tools, but they don't hand wave away all variance outside of them.

[cbbryan]

per Rosenthal

 

@Ken_Rosenthal Sources: #Cubs in agreement with free-agent RHP Jason Hammel, pending a physical.

 

...meh...

[Irrelevant Dude]

It was reported on the Score that there is a 2nd year option. Has anyone heard confirmation on that?

[imb]

It was reported on the Score that there is a 2nd year option. Has anyone heard confirmation on that?

 

hope so

[Benny Rodriguez]

they were saying that last night but other sources say the details won't be released until the physical