BP's Top 10 Cubs Prospects

[Guest]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

 

Also, you really have to see Vogelbach play in person to appreciate just how inept he is defensively.

[Guest]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

 

Also, you really have to see Vogelbach play in person to appreciate just how inept he is defensively.

 

Haha, I remember when you were all about Vogelbach supplanting Rizzo.

[Guest]

it still seems so weird that almora is kind of slow

 

I don't know if he's actually kind of slow or juts kind of slow for a CFer who plays amazing defense

Yeah it's definitely relative, he's "slow" when compared to the elite speed guys in the minors like Billy Hamilton, Buxton, etc. But he isn't "slow" in most contexts.

 

well it was this quote that makes it sounds like his general speed might be below average-

 

The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level

 

i know he was never going to be a base stealer, but i'm wondering if he's going to provide value on the basepaths or not.

[Guest]

Also, I'm going to reiterate my belief that Dan Vogelbach will be a better player than Anthony Rizzo, and I hope the FO doesn't just view him as trade bait only.

 

Not saying this in an insulting way, since that opinion isn't crazy, but for reference: Rizzo outhit Vogelbach in Low A at a younger age right after he was diagnosed with cancer. Plus there's a canyon between them in terms of defensive value.

 

Also, you really have to see Vogelbach play in person to appreciate just how inept he is defensively.

 

Haha, I remember when you were all about Vogelbach supplanting Rizzo.

You've sold me on Rizzo

[Clem Fandango]

it still seems so weird that almora is kind of slow

 

I don't know if he's actually kind of slow or juts kind of slow for a CFer who plays amazing defense

Yeah it's definitely relative, he's "slow" when compared to the elite speed guys in the minors like Billy Hamilton, Buxton, etc. But he isn't "slow" in most contexts.

 

well it was this quote that makes it sounds like his general speed might be below average-

 

The speed is the only tool that projects to play below average at the major-league level

 

i know he was never going to be a base stealer, but i'm wondering if he's going to provide value on the basepaths or not.

 

I could see Almora having a Derrek-Lee-in-his-prime type stolen base output, given that he develops smart baserunning skills and uses them to his advantage.

[Cubswin11]

FWIW, Law's stuff starts coming out today and finishes off at the end of the week. For those that have insider, if you could please post whatever Cubs stuff he ranks/says. It would be appreciated.

 

‏@keithlaw

My farm system rankings piece goes up tomorrow. Top 100 prospects Wednesday, AL top tens Thursday, NL top tens Friday.

[imb]

FWIW, Law's stuff starts coming out today and finishes off at the end of the week. For those that have insider, if you could please post whatever Cubs stuff he ranks/says. It would be appreciated.

 

‏@keithlaw

My farm system rankings piece goes up tomorrow. Top 100 prospects Wednesday, AL top tens Thursday, NL top tens Friday.

 

astros

twins

pirates

cobs

4. Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.

 

Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.

[Guest]

FWIW, Law's stuff starts coming out today and finishes off at the end of the week. For those that have insider, if you could please post whatever Cubs stuff he ranks/says. It would be appreciated.

 

‏@keithlaw

My farm system rankings piece goes up tomorrow. Top 100 prospects Wednesday, AL top tens Thursday, NL top tens Friday.

 

astros

twins

pirates

cobs

4. Chicago Cubs

 

The Cubs are absolutely loaded with bats, but they could use a few arms; either arm, not terribly picky, must throw at least 92 mph.

 

Their top four prospects are all impact position players, three because of how they'll hit, one (Albert Almora) because of his defense/offense combination. With those prospects joining what they already have in the majors, they could have one of the NL's best offenses by 2016.

Can we time warp through 2014 and 15 please?

[Guest]

#4 my ass

[BleacherBadger]

KLaw Top 100 prospects

 

#7 Baez

#15 Bryant

#26 Soler

#28 Almora

#67 Edwards

#71 Alcantra

[Guest]

Last year, I am pretty sure Law was the highest on our system. Had us top 5 (when even Theo admitted in his spring training sit down with Kaplan that he didn't think it was quite deserving of that yet). This year, I'm pretty sure he's the lowest.

 

That's with being ranked #4 and 6 top 100s lol.

[jersey cubs fan]

Last year, I am pretty sure Law was the highest on our system. Had us top 5 (when even Theo admitted in his spring training sit down with Kaplan that he didn't think it was quite deserving of that yet). This year, I'm pretty sure he's the lowest.

 

That's with being ranked #4 and 6 top 100s lol.

 

A few more top ten picks and pretty soon he will have no choice but to give us our due.

[imb]

7. Javier Baez

Baez has the best bat speed of any hitter in the minors right now, and the ball explodes off his bat like he's splitting atoms with contact.

 

He's got 30-plus home run power, and showed at least some signs in the second half of 2012 that he could improve his plate discipline, working the count a little more effectively in some of his plate appearances. He's still prone to the at-bat where you watch him and wonder what he was thinking, the kind of brain cramp that won't be forgiven in the big leagues, but he can turn around the next time and hit a ball 400 feet the other way if the pitcher tries the same trick twice.

 

Baez is agile enough to handle shortstop, and could even be average or a tick better there, but his arm will play anywhere on the diamond and he's quick enough to handle second if the Cubs move him there. Wherever he plays, he'll probably start his career as a low-walk guy, maybe a .270/.310/.450 type of hitter right out of the chute, but the progress he showed in 2013 may give us hope he can improve that OBP in time and become an MVP candidate.

 

15. Kris Bryant

A first-round talent out of high school who ended up at the University of San Diego, Bryant went second overall to the Cubs in 2013 after crushing NCAA leaderboards into singularities all spring, then proceeded to do the same in a month and a half of pro ball, slugging .688 over the summer and .727 in the Arizona Fall League.

 

Bryant has big-time power, especially to his pull side, with huge hip rotation after starting with a very wide base. He has no stride and a tendency to slightly overrotate; combined with just average bat speed, it creates some risk that his contact rates will drop as he faces better velocity in Double-A or higher. He's a good athlete for his size and has a chance to remain at third base; if he has to move to the outfield, he'll be above average to plus in right, with plenty of arm for any position on the field.

 

At worst, he'll be an impact power bat with good defense in right and adequate OBPs; his ceiling is a 30- to 35-homer bat with .350-plus OBPs and solid-average defense at third, the kind of bat you stick in the cleanup spot so you can build your lineup around him.

 

26. Jorge Soler

Soler, who the Cubs signed for $30 million out of Cuba in 2012, was 55 games into a promising first full season in the minors when he fouled a ball off his leg, breaking a bone and missing out on a likely mid-year promotion to Double-A.

 

He returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, looking rusty but physically imposing, with a good 15-20 pounds of added muscle since I'd seen him the previous summer in rookie ball. Soler has outstanding hand speed and acceleration at the plate, with big-time power when he concentrates on staying back and letting his hips work to add leverage to his swing; he does have a tendency to cut across the ball rather than finishing toward the middle of the field, which reduces his power. His plan at the plate has been better than anticipated, and he's going to be above-average to plus in right field.

 

Soler was also suspended at one point for an on-field incident during which he threatened the opposing dugout with a bat after a hard collision at second base (and some words exchanged), a sign that while he's very competitive, he's still got some maturing and adjusting to U.S. baseball culture ahead of him. I see explosive offensive potential, with easy plus power and enough feel for the zone to be a middle-of-the-order bat.

 

28. Albert Almora

Almora lacks the huge upside of the three Cubs position player prospects ahead of him on this list because his tools aren't as explosive, but he makes up for that with incredible instincts and game awareness that make him a very high-probability prospect who looks like a lock to spend a decade in the big leagues in center field.

 

He gets some of the best reads off the bat I've ever seen from an outfield prospect, so although he's a below-average runner he still plays a plus center field. At the plate, Almora has a clean, controlled swing that produces a lot of hard contact, with hip rotation for future average to above-average power. He has great hand-eye coordination that allows him to square up a lot of pitches, but has to learn to rein himself in and wait for a pitch he can drive to make full use of his hit and power tools -- and if that means taking a few more walks, well, both he and the Cubs could use that right about now.

 

Almora won't end up the superstar that the Cubs are hoping to get from Baez/Bryant/Soler, but should be a solid producer for years who sneaks on to a few All-Star teams as the baseball world learns to appreciate what he can do in the field.

 

67. CJ Edwards

The Cubs acquired Edwards in the Matt Garza trade last July after which we quickly saw the return of his electric stuff and athletic, if slight, build.

 

Edwards will sit 91-96 mph with little effort, getting natural cutting action on the pitch as well as some downhill plane, and he has a big, old-school curveball that's a 55 or 60 on the 20-80 scale, and both pitches have missed bats in the minors. His changeup has made progress and was solid-average by year-end, giving him a three-pitch mix along with average control, similar in total package to Chris Archer at a similar stage of development.

 

Where Archer had size to go with his athleticism, Edwards is a rake, listed at 6-foot-2, 155 pounds, and while he's not that emaciated, he's still on the skinny side for a potential 200-inning starter. He's been healthy so far, and he has No. 2 starter upside if he can handle the workload associated with making 33 starts a year in the majors, a tremendous get for the Cubs for two months of Matt Garza's time.

 

71. Arismendy Alcantara

Alcantara was a bit of a surprise pick for the 2013 Futures Game, given how many higher-profile prospects the Cubs have, but homered from the left side and impressed scouts with his range of tools; he had a cold spell right after the game, but bounced back in August for a solid seasonal line that still doesn't give you a great idea of his upside as a potential All-Star at second base.

 

He can run and is a legitimate switch-hitter with sneaky power thanks to very strong wrists. He's a versatile athlete who could back up shortstop but probably shouldn't play it every day; he could also likely handle center or third base if needed, and might be a candidate for a Tony Phillips-type super-utility role.

 

He needs to tighten up his control of the strike zone and a full year of playing second base would help him substantially. Of note: He bears a striking resemblance to Chris Paul.

[Guest]

How can he say someone looks like a lock to spend 10 years playing big league CF and have that guy only be the 28th best prospect in baseball?

[jersey cubs fan]

How can he say someone looks like a lock to spend 10 years playing big league CF and have that guy only be the 28th best prospect in baseball?

 

Because he thinks he has very limited upside and that all the guys above him presumably have a higher upside. And he places greater value on upside than just the ability to make a team. Also, he probably differentiates between "looking" like a lock and actually being a lock, because, of course, he is not a lock.

[Guest]

How can he say someone looks like a lock to spend 10 years playing big league CF and have that guy only be the 28th best prospect in baseball?

 

Because he thinks he has very limited upside and that all the guys above him presumably have a higher upside. And he places greater value on upside than just the ability to make a team. Also, he probably differentiates between "looking" like a lock and actually being a lock, because, of course, he is not a lock.

 

I understand all that.

 

It was more of a rhetorical question.

[KingCubsFan]

I love that he put Lindor ahead of Baez. He also has a strange obsession with Addison Russell. Who's asking the first Hak-Ju Lee question in his chat?

[Cubswin11]

I love that he put Lindor ahead of Baez. He also has a strange obsession with Addison Russell. Who's asking the first Hak-Ju Lee question in his chat?

He's been all over him for quite some time.

[sneakypower]

he put that prepubescent Dodgers lefty ahead of Taijuan Walker, lol

 

also, what is this, year 6 of HJ Lee as a top-100 guy?

 

http://apartmentdwellerssurvivalguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/stop-trying-to-make-fetch-happen-no-caption.gif

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Uhh, Law has Corey Black at #9 in the Cubs system.

[bukie]

Law's Cubs top 14 (he lists the top 10 and the next 4):

 

1. Baez

2. Bryant

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Edwards

6. Alcantara

7. Johnson

8. Candelario

9. Corey Black

10. Vizcaino

11. Zastryzny

12. Eloy Jimenez

13. Scott Frazier

14. Tyler Skulina

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Law's Cubs top 14 (he lists the top 10 and the next 4):

 

1. Baez

2. Bryant

3. Soler

4. Almora

5. Edwards

6. Alcantara

7. Johnson

8. Candelario

9. Corey Black

10. Vizcaino

11. Zastryzny

12. Eloy Jimenez

13. Scott Frazier

14. Tyler Skulina

 

Was just about to come back and post the next 4 after actually reading his overview. So, he really values ceiling, huh?

[bukie]

He basically said in his chat yesterday that until Vogelbach shows more power results, he's a non-starter as a prospect since his value is solely in his hitting.

 

As for Olt, either his vision problems are fixed and he's in the majors or they're not and his career is over.

[Guest]

Villanueva?

[bukie]

Villanueva?

No mention of him either in yesterday's chat or his Twitter feed of late.