Theo on w/Kapman

[jersey cubs fan]

Circumstances have definitely gone against Theo since he arrived. Be it rules change, budget difficulties, issues with improving the ballpark, etc...there's been a number of factors that are out of his control.

 

But those are the rules of the game. There's no point in excusing prolonged losing because the rules of the game aren't the same they were when he built the Red Sox. Unless you somehow believe the rules will revert back to the form they were at when he was able to exploit them to his advantage.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But firing someone over [expletive] results when you know the process is good isn't my idea of smart.

 

There's value in not being completely results-oriented, but it also reaches a point where "the process is good" becomes an article of faith and not a reasoned evaluation.

[Guest]

Basically, if the FO starts making a bunch of decisions that don't make sense and are stupid, then of course I would want them fired. I have a hard time seeing that being the case, but if they actually used bad processes and made poor decisions that led to bad results, then yes, of course I'd want new people in charge.

[jersey cubs fan]

But firing someone over [expletive] results when you know the process is good isn't my idea of smart.

 

WTF are you talking about?

 

 

This isn't about firing anybody. This is about fretting over Theo leaving on his own before the team is good. Jimminy Christmas you keep jumping through hoops to justify an irrevocable trust in Theo's ability to get the job done. If he doesn't get the job done in 5 years, meaning if this team isn't good by 2016, he failed. That's the end of the story. His competition got better. There are more smart guys out there.

 

If you are the only hitter who can hit 30 HR in a season you are a beast. But if suddenly a whole bunch of 30 HR hitters enter the league, you are no longer special.

[Guest]

It's almost as if you'd want to consider external circumstances and put things in context when making an evaluation.

[jersey cubs fan]

Basically, if the FO starts making a bunch of decisions that don't make sense and are stupid, then of course I would want them fired. I have a hard time seeing that being the case, but if they actually used bad processes and made poor decisions that led to bad results, then yes, of course I'd want new people in charge.

 

The only way you can judge if "a bunch of decisions" are good or bad in the game of baseball is by wins and losses. You can't keep making good decisions and keep losing.

[Banedon]

Circumstances have definitely gone against Theo since he arrived. Be it rules change, budget difficulties, issues with improving the ballpark, etc...there's been a number of factors that are out of his control.

 

But those are the rules of the game. There's no point in excusing prolonged losing because the rules of the game aren't the same they were when he built the Red Sox. Unless you somehow believe the rules will revert back to the form they were at when he was able to exploit them to his advantage.

 

The rules change was only one element that I mentioned, though. The plan that Theo and Ricketts probably came up with during interviews and the hiring process have been greatly impacted by things beyond his control. And while the rules change equally impacted all teams, he's had plenty of factors he's had to deal with that other teams haven't. No matter how smart the GM/President of the team were, budget concerns were going to be there thanks to Ricketts and the neighborhood jackassery.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's almost as if you'd want to consider external circumstances and put things in context when making an evaluation.

 

It's almost as if you'd want to make every excuse in the book to pretend that 5 years of losing would somehow not reflect back on the job the front office did.

[Banedon]

You can't keep making good decisions and keep losing.

 

Well this isn't true. It's perfectly plausible to make the best decision possible given the circumstances every time and still lose due to other teams also making good decisions.

[Guest]

But firing someone over [expletive] results when you know the process is good isn't my idea of smart.

 

WTF are you talking about?

 

 

This isn't about firing anybody. This is about fretting over Theo leaving on his own before the team is good. Jimminy Christmas you keep jumping through hoops to justify an irrevocable trust in Theo's ability to get the job done. If he doesn't get the job done in 5 years, meaning if this team isn't good by 2016, he failed. That's the end of the story. His competition got better. There are more smart guys out there.

 

If you are the only hitter who can hit 30 HR in a season you are a beast. But if suddenly a whole bunch of 30 HR hitters enter the league, you are no longer special.

 

You're right... I went off course with using the word "firing."

 

Yes, there are more smart guys out there and we probably wouldn't hire someone dumb. I already acknowledged this.

 

I still hugely disagree with your assertion that results trump everything after 5 years, if that is, in fact, your assertion. Am I misunderstanding your argument?

 

Context matters and process is far more important than results.

[Guest]

Basically, if the FO starts making a bunch of decisions that don't make sense and are stupid, then of course I would want them fired. I have a hard time seeing that being the case, but if they actually used bad processes and made poor decisions that led to bad results, then yes, of course I'd want new people in charge.

 

The only way you can judge if "a bunch of decisions" are good or bad in the game of baseball is by wins and losses. You can't keep making good decisions and keep losing.

 

That's completely wrong.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Basically, if the FO starts making a bunch of decisions that don't make sense and are stupid

 

Like misevaluating the state of the team and the city when they took the job?

 

Overplaying their hand with Garza?

 

Letting DeJesus go for nothing when he still had value?

 

Misreading the market for IFA pool money and being stuck over the limit without the financial ability to fully exploit their over-the-limit status?

 

Heck, we're one Soler bust away from a pretty bad IFA track record.

 

Hiring Dale Sveum

 

Screwing with Starlin Castro

[Guest]

It's almost as if you'd want to consider external circumstances and put things in context when making an evaluation.

 

It's almost as if you'd want to make every excuse in the book to pretend that 5 years of losing would somehow not reflect back on the job the front office did.

 

Well we wouldn't want to have a nuanced discussion, that'd be the worst.

 

If they're still losing after 2016 then odds are they haven't done well at their jobs, but if for some reason they never end up with more resources then it's certainly up for debate given the state of the team they inherited. I don't think that will happen, but I don't think they'll end up losing for 5 years either.

[Guest]

It's almost as if you'd want to consider external circumstances and put things in context when making an evaluation.

 

It's almost as if you'd want to make every excuse in the book to pretend that 5 years of losing would somehow not reflect back on the job the front office did.

 

Well we wouldn't want to have a nuanced discussion, that'd be the worst.

 

If they're still losing after 2016 then odds are they haven't done well at their jobs, but if for some reason they never end up with more resources then it's certainly up for debate given the state of the team they inherited. I don't think that will happen, but I don't think they'll end up losing for 5 years either.

 

I'm OK with this.

[Guest]

Anyway, the biggest piece of good news I picked up from that interview is the confidence in the TV deal.

 

If he's as confident as he seemed (and he seemed REALLY confident), that situation looks much better than we have all been inclined to/led to believe over the past few months.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Anyway, the biggest piece of good news I picked up from that interview is the confidence in the TV deal.

 

If he's as confident as he seemed (and he seemed REALLY confident), that situation looks much better than we have all been inclined to/led to believe over the past few months.

 

I've been burned enough believing in Theo's charming confidence in the past. Especially right now when he's trying to help hte team sell those TV rights.

[A New Era]

I'm happy with the Job Theo has done, and he just makes me feel more confident. Yeah I know that's his job. But the tippy top of the draft prospects from 2012-2014 while painful at the MLB level, will be the real catalyst to the turnaround.

[USSoccer]

How on earth could you be happy with the job he's done? He hasn't "done" anything. The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here, and as nice as it is that there's some promise in the minors, it's ultimately the major league team that he should be judged by.

 

If the Cubs haven't won anything after 5 years but Daytona and West Tennessee have championships or some crap, are you going to be pleased? Because I won't be. That BA system ranking doesn't come with a trophy.

 

Also keep in mind that the best player in our system was already here when he got here, and being ass-terrible should result in some good draft picks/prospects.

Edited December 5, 2013 by USSoccer

[Guest]

How on earth could you be happy with the job he's done? He hasn't "done" anything. The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here, and as nice as it is that there's some promise in the minors, it's the major league team that he should be judged by.

 

If the Cubs haven't won anything after 5 years but Daytona and West Tennessee have championships or some crap, are you going to be pleased? Because I won't be. That BA system ranking doesn't come with a trophy.

 

It is? I thought it was the state of the entire organization that he was in charge of.

 

So the state of the minor leagues don't matter in evaluating the job he's done? Am I off base in saying that's what you're implying, if not overtly saying?

[USSoccer]

How on earth could you be happy with the job he's done? He hasn't "done" anything. The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here, and as nice as it is that there's some promise in the minors, it's the major league team that he should be judged by.

 

If the Cubs haven't won anything after 5 years but Daytona and West Tennessee have championships or some crap, are you going to be pleased? Because I won't be. That BA system ranking doesn't come with a trophy.

 

It is? I thought it was the state of the entire organization that he was in charge of.

 

So the state of the minor leagues don't matter in evaluating the job he's done? Am I off base in saying that's what you're implying, if not overtly saying?

 

It matters to a large extent, but it's ultimately major league success that matters. The system plays a very large part in that, but after 5 years if the major league team still sucks, then all the sweet, sweet prospects in the world don't matter as much.

 

5 years should be enough time to show progress and results at the major league level.

 

ETA: What I'm saying is that the state of the system matters to the extent that it leads to major league success. If it doesn't, then it matters a lot less.

Edited December 5, 2013 by USSoccer

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It is? I thought it was the state of the entire organization that he was in charge of.

 

So the state of the minor leagues don't matter in evaluating the job he's done? Am I off base in saying that's what you're implying, if not overtly saying?

 

 

The organization exists to help the MLB team win.

[jersey cubs fan]

How on earth could you be happy with the job he's done? He hasn't "done" anything. The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here, and as nice as it is that there's some promise in the minors, it's the major league team that he should be judged by.

 

If the Cubs haven't won anything after 5 years but Daytona and West Tennessee have championships or some crap, are you going to be pleased? Because I won't be. That BA system ranking doesn't come with a trophy.

 

It is? I thought it was the state of the entire organization that he was in charge of.

 

So the state of the minor leagues don't matter in evaluating the job he's done? Am I off base in saying that's what you're implying, if not overtly saying?

 

Oh it's absolutely the case that the state of the minor leagues pales in comparison to the major league success when evaluating front office work.

 

Anybody can build a minor league system if their only mandate is to build a minor league system. Winning at the major league level is the hard part and the only part that actually matters.

[KingCubsFan]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

[USSoccer]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

No? How so? We had a better OF, a better 3B, a slightly worse 1B, the same SS playing much better, the same 2B playing better, and a better pitching staff.

 

We have a far less expensive team, but the 2013 Cubs were far, far less talented than the 2011 Cubs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The major league team is more talent-poor than when he got here.

 

I don't think that's true at all.

 

Major changes off the top of my head

 

Out or significantly lost talent:

Soto, Castro, Garza, Dempster, Marshall

 

In or significantly gained talent:

Jackson, Rizzo, Schierholtz, Castillo, Samardzija

 

Pretty close to a wash, imo. Could make a case either way.