2013-2014 Chicago Bulls Thread

[Guest]

I'm not convinced tanking is really that big of a deal, or even can be "solved", but what about a mixed system of weighted and equal chances.

 

Like what if the first pick in the draft was a straight 1/14 odds. Picks 2-4 would then be weighted, similar to the old system, with 5 and after not being in the lottery. Everyone would still get their weights ahead of time, you'd just drop out the chances of the winning team after the first lotto. Basically assigning a separate group of lotto numbers. Or to get even a little more complicated, make it an increasingly favorable scale, and lottery all the way out to 7 or 8. So the worst team may start with a 7% chance, then a 15%, then 35%, etc. This general idea though would basically discourage all out tanking, but also encourage some playoff tanking, though I'm not sure exactly how likely that would be, especially since you'd be tanking for an all or nothing chance. The shifting scale would be particularly perplexing from audit perspective as numbers are pre-assigned.

 

The alternative is to keep the 1-3 lottery format, but then extend the lottery format all the way from 4-14 with equal or increasingly equal odds. So as a the #30 team, if you miss out on your roughly 65% chance of top three, you are then thrown to the chances and just as likely to end up 4th as 14th. From a risk perspective not a huge deterrent, but a little bit, since you no longer have your #4 fail safe. And for the fringey teams, you're still keeping their jackpot odds low and thus their playoff tank incentive low.

 

Or also open up the 1st round losers to the lottery, definitely at decreased odds though. Perhaps a second tiered lottery starting at 8 or 9.

 

The most interesting "fix" to tanking I've seen is to rank the lottery by total wins after your team is eliminated from playoff contention. It's far more complicated than anything currently in sports to determine draft order, but I think it does a pretty good job of treating the problem.

[Soul]

There'd be a race to tank mid-season in order to be eliminated first. 8-)

[KingCubsFan]

There's only so much they can do. As others have said, it's just the nature of the sport. And unlike baseball or football, it is nearly impossible to find a diamond in the rough in a basketball draft. Once you get out of the Top 3 or (in a good year) 5 picks, you're basically drafting role players.

 

Would further limiting the college issue help? If players can't be drafted until after 3 or 4 years instead of what it is now (2 years, right?) might that help make the draft deeper in terms of talent?

I don't really think so. You'll see a little bit of a dry spell for a while, then maybe one or two wild drafts from all the guys forced back, and then it would just even out.

 

I think getting rid of the college rule altogether might be more helpful. Back before the rule, tanking and picking a high school player was so risky it wasn't even a good bet. Having that extra year of review against exponentially better opponents has made the scouting pool much less risky.

 

Hmmm. Yeah, I was mulling it over in my head after my first post and the extra years really wasn't seeming like any kind of long term solution. It's just frustrating how the drafts end up having so few impact players or value picks.

I do think that delay would end up producing a lot more quality players, as opposed to some of the guys that are drafted now.

 

A lot of it, though, has to do with the way the NBA is structured. I think they should expand the draft and make the D League an actual farm system, where each franchise gets assigned a team. As it stands now, "raw" guys get drafted every year, and then they're basically discarded after a year because coaches are (rightfully) more focused on winning games and saving their jobs as opposed to helping some kid learn how to properly box out.

[Sammy Sofa]

There's only so much they can do. As others have said, it's just the nature of the sport. And unlike baseball or football, it is nearly impossible to find a diamond in the rough in a basketball draft. Once you get out of the Top 3 or (in a good year) 5 picks, you're basically drafting role players.

 

Would further limiting the college issue help? If players can't be drafted until after 3 or 4 years instead of what it is now (2 years, right?) might that help make the draft deeper in terms of talent?

I don't really think so. You'll see a little bit of a dry spell for a while, then maybe one or two wild drafts from all the guys forced back, and then it would just even out.

 

I think getting rid of the college rule altogether might be more helpful. Back before the rule, tanking and picking a high school player was so risky it wasn't even a good bet. Having that extra year of review against exponentially better opponents has made the scouting pool much less risky.

 

Hmmm. Yeah, I was mulling it over in my head after my first post and the extra years really wasn't seeming like any kind of long term solution. It's just frustrating how the drafts end up having so few impact players or value picks.

I do think that delay would end up producing a lot more quality players, as opposed to some of the guys that are drafted now.

 

A lot of it, though, has to do with the way the NBA is structured. I think they should expand the draft and make the D League an actual farm system, where each franchise gets assigned a team. As it stands now, "raw" guys get drafted every year, and then they're basically discarded after a year because coaches are (rightfully) more focused on winning games and saving their jobs as opposed to helping some kid learn how to properly box out.

 

That's a good point; unless a player breaks out right away they're basically done, and the only ones who really get a chance to break out are the ones they're expecting/hoping to break out in the first place. Unless a team gets hit by injuries you have a bunch of guys who just take up space, and nobody gives a damn about the D League. Sounds like some real areas of improvement.

[WrigleyField 22]

I don't think a D League is going to create true stars, but I think it would go a long way in helping teams that are dedicated to creating a system. Just imagine a bunch of guys being trained in Thibs defense for a few years and then stepping in on the cheap, allowing dollars to be allocated more toward the high end.

[WrigleyField 22]

Man the NBA is so messed up right now. Two legit teams in the East. Two bottom dwellers in the West. They should scrap conferences this year and let the best 16 in. Looking at the East's standings, they're just losing nearly every game they play against the West.

[Guest]

@KCJHoop: Bulls GM Gar Forman: "We’re not going to tank. Are there going to have to be decisions made moving forward as far as our roster? There are."

[WrigleyField 22]

That could mean anything. At the very least, tanking could just be actively losing games.

 

If this front office's history is looked at, they are much more likely to tank in an effort for cap space than losing for draft picks. I wouldn't be surprised to see aligning salaries to make a play for 2015 or 2016. If that were the case, the tough decision would basically come down to Noah. Everyone else is expiring, a amnesty option, or easier to let go.

[CubColtPacer]

The Cavs are shopping Waiters, and one of the people they are interested in is Deng. This creates an interesting situation for the Bulls if they want to save money. I think they could trade Deng for Waiters and Bynum once Bynum's trade restriction lifts on December 15th. Then they could cut Bynum before January 7th which would shave 6 million off his salary. If the Bulls threw in Dunleavy into the deal (or Hinrich would be even better, but the Bulls would be truly tanking in that scenario), the Bulls could get very close to the tax line in one quick jump. Everything beyond the first sentence is my speculation, but do you think there is an possibility for a deal like that?

[Guest]

It's annoying that both ESPN and RealGM's trade machines don't let you override the date restrictions on tradeable players. I get it, Bynum can't be traded for 2 weeks, now can you please tell me if this would be possible at a future date that is actually very close?

 

I don't pretend to have any idea of what the Cavs want to do right now, they're not in a terribly good place with most of the roster underperforming. I don't know how much trading Waiters does to help things either way, but trading him for Deng certainly makes the short term more palatable. I guess it would really put them all-in on this FA class, which seems like a risky proposition with all their long term assets besides maybe Thompson putting up disappointing numbers.

[Cubswin11]

It's annoying that both ESPN and RealGM's trade machines don't let you override the date restrictions on tradeable players. I get it, Bynum can't be traded for 2 weeks, now can you please tell me if this would be possible at a future date that is actually very close?

Yeah, it's annoying. The way I have gotten around it is trade as many lower salary players whose salaries aggregate into whatever the higher salary players salary is that is "locked" and see if it works.

 

So in the Cavs sake if you are trying to move Bynum+ to make salaries work for Deng, but he's locked, I would just do like Kyrie, Bennett and Karasev going to the Bulls. Those guys get you to around 100k of Bynum's salary.

 

Edit:

 

Deng for Bynum and Waiters should work (Kyrie, Bennett, Karasev and Waiters for Deng works) just adding Hinrich going to the Cavs in that same deal also works.

[RynoRules]

Let me see if I have this right. Teague can't defend. Can't shoot. Is a poor ball handler.

 

Snell on the other hand looks like he could make Deng immediately expendable.

[Guest]

Snell has been fantastic and apparently Thibs loves him.

[RynoRules]

I can see why. He's had some Pippen-like moments tonight.

[UMFan83]

Kind of depressing to see Rose's Skull Candy commercial with a message at the end that says "We all face challenges #SupportDRose"

 

(but not as depressing as watching the Bulls since Rose went down)

[Ryne Ween]

Dunleavy just popped the dumbest jumper. Deng wants this game pretty bad.

 

This is the basketball version of the bears Vikings game. Neither team can win.

[Careless]

Dunleavy just popped the dumbest jumper. Deng wants this game pretty bad.

 

This is the basketball version of the bears Vikings game. Neither team can win.

Aside from your last sentence, correct.

[Soul]

Yeeeshh

[Ryne Ween]

I've honestly never seen the bulls look as bad as they did defending that last inbound. Just like they maybe didn't want to play that fourth OT. Man it's sad that the last four buzzer plays (they had like 10 in the game) were dunleavy and Heinrich playing a two man game at the perimeter, Noah iso, taj inside, and dunleavy off screens.

[gscool89]

Big L for the Bulls

[ChiCubsFan]

Do the Bulls miss the playoffs if they trade Deng by the end of December?

[Ryne Ween]

Do the Bulls miss the playoffs if they trade Deng by the end of December?

 

I can't think of a scenario where the bills don't at least get the 8 slot.

[Careless]

Do the Bulls miss the playoffs if they trade Deng by the end of December?

7-10 and 7-12 behind the Bulls. Better than I had anticipated. Tank, please

[WrigleyField 22]

It's harder to tank this year than win the championship. There is some stiff competition. I'll take the playoff revenue.

[Sammy Sofa]

Big L for the Bulls

 

Stop.