2014 Roster Discussion

[CubsWin]

With the trade deadline past and the off-season quickly approaching, we might as well have a thread on what the roster for the upcoming season will look like.

 

Two guys who will have to be on the 25-man roster or risk being claimed off of waivers are Jake Arrieta and Alberto Cabrera. Unless, he implodes in spring training, I think Arrieta has to be penciled in for the 2014 rotation. Cabrera was stretched out and used as a starter in AA this season and acquitted himself nicely. The thinking is that the only reason he is currently in the Iowa bullpen is to limit his innings.

 

Unless and until trades happen, the starters look like:

 

Samardzija

Wood

Arrieta

Jackson

 

The pen should include:

 

Strop

Russell

Parker

Cabrera

Villanueva

 

There are a lot of in-house options for both. Cabrera, Rusin, Villanueva and Grimm along with some FA signings will likely compete for the 5th spot in the rotation. Cabrera must be kept, so if he doesn't get it he will go to the pen. Rusin and Grimm each have options left so if a notable FA is signed and stays healthy, they likely start 2014 in Iowa. Villanueva obviously would return to the pen.

 

If he does, that would leave 2-3 open spots in the bullpen. Chang-Yong Lim has a good shot at breaking camp with the Cubs next spring. If 1 or 2 FA relievers are signed, that could be it.

 

Interesting side note, if Grimm doesn't break with the Cubs, Iowa would sport its most interesting rotation in a while. It's not great, but it's at least follow-worthy...

 

Grimm

Hendricks

Jokisch

Loux

Raley

[CubsWin]

THE INFIELD

 

In 90 July and August plate appearances, Wellington Castillo has struck out 19 times and walked 18 while hitting .310 with 5 doubles and 2 HRs. From the start of the season thru June, he struck out 53 times, walked 10 and hit .267 with 13 doubles, 2 HRs in 240 plate appearances. Castillo will still be 26 for the 1st three weeks of next season. His defense needs work, but his bat may be rounding into above average form.

 

C - Castillo

1B - Rizzo

2B - ?

SS - Castro

3B - ?

 

The Cubs obviously value Darwin Barney's defense and leadership, otherwise they wouldn't have put up with his lack of production at the plate this season. Like it or not, Darwin may still be the Cubs best option at 2B next season. Major league ready in-house options are limited to Logan Watkins and scrap heap signings like Donnie Murphy. This front office's penchant for giving prospects 500 PA in AAA before bringing them up takes Baez and Alcantara out of the running. In general, rules don't seem to apply to Javy, but I doubt the Cubs want him at 2B anyway.

 

The list of free agent 2B aren't great after Cano, and we all know he's not leaving NY. Utley signed an extension to stay in Philly. Kelly Johnson will be available along with personal favorite Omar Infante, who was a Cub for 3 weeks during the '07 off season but never played a game for them. They will both be 32 next spring.

 

Third base is a total clusterf*#k. Valbuena, Olt, Vitters and even Lake could see time there next spring. It seems clear the Cubs want Olt to take the job, but he hasn't looked good all year. Vitters can't stay healthy or play passable defense at the position apparently. Lake has played a total of 65 games at 3B over the last two seasons, and there is likely a very good reason he has played OF exclusively since being called up. The free agent class is even less inspiring than the one for second. Unless there's a trade, all signs point to a platoon of Valbuena and whoever wins the job in spring training between Olt, Vitters and whoever else they bring in.

 

Outside of Rizzo and Castro continuing to develop, it doesn't seem like the Cubs infield is likely to improve much in 2014.

[CubsWin]

THE OUTFIELD

 

Ryan Sweeney is a free agent. Schierholtz and DeJesus are each under team control for one more year. Lake, Gillespie, Neal and Sappelt are all controlled until 2019. With the way Lake has played to date, he is the front runner to be the everyday LFer in 2014. However, this is the one area where some good FAs are available, the top 2 being Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury who will be 31 and 30 next spring respectively. There's sure to be plenty of debate amongst Cubs fans as to whether the team should invest the big bucks it's going to take to bring in one of these guys.

 

You can have Lake, DeJesus, Schierholtz with Gillespie and whomever as reserves or you can have Lake, Choo/Ellsbury, Schierholtz with DeJesus and Gillespie coming off the bench.

 

Interesting...

[TheDude]

I'd like to see the Cubs land two of the list: Tanaka, Garza, Choo, Ellsbury. Outside of that I expect a quiet off-season that includes a veteran bullpen arm and a Villanueva type for depth.

[davell]

I think Arrieta and Cabrera are both out of options, aren't they? I don't know whether either makes the rotation, but I do expect each to be on the staff. I think our offseason will be dictated partly by the renovations and whether or not we'll have extra revenue streams or not. If so, maybe the payroll goes up, if not, it stagnates or drops a bit more. Either way, we've got depth that makes it much easier to fill out a roster at this point.

[Guest]

No Garza please. Robinson Cano and I don't care about whoever else.

[pitchcs]

Fujikawa for the Bullpen??

[pitchcs]

Also, I don't see how one of DeJesus or Schierholtz isn't traded in the offseason.

[davell]

Fujikawa won't be back until midseason and thats if he recovers correctly. After looking over the FA OFers, I'm not thinking DeJesus or Schierholtz is dealt. The only OFer I could see moving is Lake, if the Cubs see a "sell-high" opportunity out there.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm not giving Arrieta a starting job just yet, nor are Russell or Parker guaranteed jobs in the pen.

 

I figure one FA/trade pitcher from outside the organization, then one job in open competition among a lot of different guys:

 

Samardzija/Wood/Jackson/OutsideGuy, then a competition between Hendricks/Arrieta/Cabrera/Rusin/Grimm. Hendricks' roster options remaining might cost him the job and keep him in the minors, but you never know. Cabrera has tons of pen experience and Arrieta is an obvious choice for a late-inning reliever. Rusin is a guy whose stuff I think might really benefit from the boost that comes with going into the pen.

 

In the outfield, I'm still not particularly inclined to give Junior Lake a starting job in 2014. A bench role is fine, he'd get plenty of PAs in our platoon-heavy outfield.

 

The infield is what really intrigues me. There's a lot of interesting options, but basically two decisions to be made:

 

1) Does the front office plan on getting significant internal contributions from Olt and/or Baez in 2014?

2) Valbuena or Barney at 2b?

[davell]

I think Olt will be our 3B next year myself. Maybe Barney gets dealt for a Kelvin Herrera type? Allow Valbuena to play 2B, with Watkins or a scrap heap veteran as the backup until Alcantara is ready?

[jersey cubs fan]

I think Olt will be our 3B next year myself.

 

It's certainly set up to be his job, but he has literally done nothing that would indicate he should get it. Well, he has more than doubled his July OPS in August, but that is still below 600.

[Guest]

I'm not giving Arrieta a starting job just yet, nor are Russell or Parker guaranteed jobs in the pen.

 

I figure one FA/trade pitcher from outside the organization, then one job in open competition among a lot of different guys:

 

Samardzija/Wood/Jackson/OutsideGuy, then a competition between Hendricks/Arrieta/Cabrera/Rusin/Grimm. Hendricks' roster options remaining might cost him the job and keep him in the minors, but you never know. Cabrera has tons of pen experience and Arrieta is an obvious choice for a late-inning reliever. Rusin is a guy whose stuff I think might really benefit from the boost that comes with going into the pen.

 

I'm of a similar mind. I think they'll add one SP that's certain of a spot, maybe it'll be someone like Tanaka or Garza on the high end, or maybe a guy like Vargas on the lower end. I think that 5th starter role is primarily a competition between Arrieta and Villanueva, with Grimm on the periphery but likely needing to start in Iowa. I hope Arrieta wins it, because then everything else flows a little easier.

 

Then in the pen, Villanueva becomes the long man, Russell, Rusin, and Rosscup fight for 2 LHP spots, and then you need 4 RHP from the list of Strop, Parker, Cabrera, Lim, Vizcaino, and anyone else brought in. If Villanueva wins the 5th starter role, then Arrieta locks up a RHP spot and guys like Cabrera, Hendricks, and Grimm see their odds of making the roster as the long man improve.

[mul21]

Fujikawa won't be back until midseason and thats if he recovers correctly. After looking over the FA OFers, I'm not thinking DeJesus or Schierholtz is dealt. The only OFer I could see moving is Lake, if the Cubs see a "sell-high" opportunity out there.

 

If they sign one of the FA OF there's no way they keep both of them. I'd be surprised if they deal Lake, especially with budget uncertainty and the need to have some sort of production out there long term until Almora et al are ready.

[sneakypower]

my '14 roster best guess (FA in bold)

 

Lake/Ellsbury/Schierholtz (Sweeney, Chris Young, Sappelt) - trade DeJesus

Olt/Castro/Barney/Rizzo (Valbuena, Watkins)

Castillo (Navarro)

 

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/(Phil Hughes/Lincecum)/Arrieta (Villanueva, Rusin [Travis Wood 2.0?], Hendricks, Grimm, Baker, Cabrera as insurance)

 

Strop/Russell/Parker/Cabrera/Lim/Villanueva

 

AAA:

Scott Baker, Grimm, Rusin, Joey Devine, Sanchez, Rosscup, Rondon

 

plenty of insurance to provide for possibility of Olt/Lake flameouts, but both players should contribute enough defense to allow more patience in seeing what the bat can do than you'd otherwise want to allow

Edited August 12, 2013 by sneakypower

[KingCubsFan]

I think Olt will be our 3B next year myself. Maybe Barney gets dealt for a Kelvin Herrera type? Allow Valbuena to play 2B, with Watkins or a scrap heap veteran as the backup until Alcantara is ready?

I think Olt will get the first shot, too. But they'll have to keep Barney at 2B with Valbuena on the bench in case Olt is a total bust and Vitters shows he can't handle the position defensively.

[davell]

Hughes AND Lincecum or just one of them?

[sneakypower]

Hughes AND Lincecum or just one of them?

oh [expletive] i guess i made that kind of confusing

 

just one of them

[Old Style]

After what he's done so far how can you not give Lake the chance to play every day to start next season? This assumes he doesn't completely [expletive] the bed between now and the end of the season.

[Guest]

There is very nearly nothing that Lake can do between now and next April that would make me comfortable giving him a starting job.

[Guest]

There is very nearly nothing that Lake can do between now and next April that would make me comfortable giving him a starting job.

 

This.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fujikawa won't be back until midseason and thats if he recovers correctly. After looking over the FA OFers, I'm not thinking DeJesus or Schierholtz is dealt. The only OFer I could see moving is Lake, if the Cubs see a "sell-high" opportunity out there.

 

If they sign one of the FA OF there's no way they keep both of them. I'd be surprised if they deal Lake, especially with budget uncertainty and the need to have some sort of production out there long term until Almora et al are ready.

 

Why wouldn't they want an outfield of DeJesus/Free Agent/Schierholtz with Lake as the 400 PA bench guy? That seems ideal to me.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There is very nearly nothing that Lake can do between now and next April that would make me comfortable giving him a starting job.

 

If he ends the year with a BB rate around 4, a K rate below 23%, and improved scouting reports on his OF defense, then I could be persuaded to live with it, so long as we're spending the money to upgrade the lineup elsewhere.

 

The problem is, we can't (or at least shouldn't) run an entire lineup of "not that bad if they are cheap" guys plus Castro and Rizzo.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think Olt will be our 3B next year myself.

 

It's certainly set up to be his job, but he has literally done nothing that would indicate he should get it. Well, he has more than doubled his July OPS in August, but that is still below 600.

 

At least the Ks seem to have stopped. He's in the mysterious world of no BABIP right now, and disappointingly low power.

[KingCubsFan]

I think Olt will be our 3B next year myself.

 

It's certainly set up to be his job, but he has literally done nothing that would indicate he should get it. Well, he has more than doubled his July OPS in August, but that is still below 600.

 

At least the Ks seem to have stopped. He's in the mysterious world of no BABIP right now, and disappointingly low power.

He has to be mentally screwed up at this point. I'd be OK just pulling from Iowa, having him work out in Arizona, and then letting him play in the AFL to get his confidence back up.