Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-12-13

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Well, never mind then. :yahoo:

 

I'll tell Theo not to worry about it.

[KingCubsFan]

Pretty sad we had the #2 prospect 2 years in a row and they were both busts.

[Guest]

Pretty sad we had the #2 prospect 2 years in a row and they were both busts.

Except neither really was.

[KingCubsFan]

Pretty sad we had the #2 prospect 2 years in a row and they were both busts.

Except neither really was.

I'm not going to argue semantics, but one's career was over at the age of 25, and the other one failed to get 600 plate appearances in a season after the age of 24. Considering how highly touted they were, I'd say that's pretty disappointing.

 

 

And I place the majority of the blame on Dusty Baker for both players' career arcs.

[jersey cubs fan]

Pretty sad we had the #2 prospect 2 years in a row and they were both busts.

Except neither really was.

I'm not going to argue semantics, but one's career was over at the age of 25, and the other one failed to get 600 plate appearances in a season after the age of 24. Considering how highly touted they were, I'd say that's pretty disappointing.

 

 

And I place the majority of the blame on Dusty Baker for both players' career arcs.

 

There's no semantics. Prior wasn't a bust. He was awesome, then he got hurt after already achieving what anybody could have hoped for a prospect.

[Guest]

Out of the 16 #2 prospects on that list, they rank 12th and 13th in career WAR(assuming David Price's career doesn't end before 2014). Semantics of "bust" aside, that's pretty disappointing for the two that came through the Cubs organization.

[jersey cubs fan]

Out of the 16 #2 prospects on that list, they rank 12th and 13th in career WAR(assuming David Price's career doesn't end before 2014). Semantics of "bust" aside, that's pretty disappointing for the two that came through the Cubs organization.

 

But that happened because his manager killed him, not because he wasn't actually that good or worthy of the ranking, like Patterson.

 

A bust does not do what Prior did at the major league level.

[Tyrant]

Prior was definitely not a bust. Incredibly disappointing ending, sure, but not a bust at all.

 

It's all semantics anyways.

[davell]

Yeah, if Bryce Harper or Mike Trout had some sort of catastrophic injury they couldn't come back from, they aren't busts, by any stretch. Prior was on his way to a ridiculously awesome career. Just as those two are.

[KingCubsFan]

Out of the 16 #2 prospects on that list, they rank 12th and 13th in career WAR(assuming David Price's career doesn't end before 2014). Semantics of "bust" aside, that's pretty disappointing for the two that came through the Cubs organization.

Did you include Ankiel's pitching WAR too? It probably doesn't matter anyways.

[Elrhino]

Well Javy went hitless for the day but I could care less because he took 3 walks and didn't strike out.

 

And no errors.

[Guest]

Out of the 16 #2 prospects on that list, they rank 12th and 13th in career WAR(assuming David Price's career doesn't end before 2014). Semantics of "bust" aside, that's pretty disappointing for the two that came through the Cubs organization.

Did you include Ankiel's pitching WAR too? It probably doesn't matter anyways.

 

Oh, good call. That only adds 3.4 fWAR though, so he's still down the list.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I clearly am insane and don't study prospects at all close enough to make this statement, but I wouldn't trade Javy for any prospect in baseball right now. I know he has a huge bust potential, but I also think he has the highest ceiling of any guy in the minors.

 

I'd give him and Almora for Buxton.

 

Holy hyperbole. Kyle, you wouldn't actually do that, right?

 

I absolutely would. If Buxton isn't the best prospect in baseball right now, he will be this time next year for sure. Anytime you can take a step up in quality for some quantity, you do it.

Time warp to 01, I'd absolutely trade #89 Adrian Gonzalez and #91 Miguel Cabrera for #2 Corey Patterson. Did you see the numbers he just put up in low A?

 

In this world, whether Miggy's a bust or a triple crown winner he's not a Marlin. Specifially, he's not a 2003 Marlin. More specifically, he's not a 2003 Game 7 Marlin.

[Guest]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

But in a completely hypothetical sense, if I had a chance to trade two guys from the back of the top 20 for someone in the top 2, I'm doing it almost every time.

 

I'll get burned sometimes, but I'm pretty sure in the long run it's +EV.

 

I'm curious, so I'll try this with the BA top 20s I can find. Let's say #2 v. #15 & #19 ahead of time so I'm not biased to pick a particular spot at the back of the top 20.

 

http://i.imgur.com/zpecR0a.jpg

 

#15 & #19 run away with it. In sum they end up better, and they're more often better in any individual year as well.

A really interesting study would be to analyze whether BA and others are getting any better at ranking players. I'd be really curious if the hit rate for highly ranked players is getting better or treading water.

[illiniguy]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

But in a completely hypothetical sense, if I had a chance to trade two guys from the back of the top 20 for someone in the top 2, I'm doing it almost every time.

 

I'll get burned sometimes, but I'm pretty sure in the long run it's +EV.

 

I'm curious, so I'll try this with the BA top 20s I can find. Let's say #2 v. #15 & #19 ahead of time so I'm not biased to pick a particular spot at the back of the top 20.

 

http://i.imgur.com/zpecR0a.jpg

 

#15 & #19 run away with it. In sum they end up better, and they're more often better in any individual year as well.

A really interesting study would be to analyze whether BA and others are getting any better at ranking players. I'd be really curious if the hit rate for highly ranked players is getting better or treading water.

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

[Guest]

probably

[jersey cubs fan]

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

 

what do you mean throw out?

 

One of the things in favor of the two "lesser" prospects is that there are two of them. If the better guy gets hurt, that underscores part of the value of having quantity. You can't ignore that part of the equation.

[Guest]

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

 

what do you mean throw out?

 

One of the things in favor of the two "lesser" prospects is that there are two of them. If the better guy gets hurt, that underscores part of the value of having quantity. You can't ignore that part of the equation.

 

I think he's referring to Tim's idea of figuring out if BA has gotten any better at picking out future successful Major Leaguers.

[jersey cubs fan]

ah, I see

[illiniguy]

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

 

what do you mean throw out?

 

One of the things in favor of the two "lesser" prospects is that there are two of them. If the better guy gets hurt, that underscores part of the value of having quantity. You can't ignore that part of the equation.

 

I think he's referring to Tim's idea of figuring out if BA has gotten any better at picking out future successful Major Leaguers.

Yes, this. I don't expect anyone to predict that Mark Prior will get flipped by Marcuse Giles and then have Brad Hawpe hit a liner off of his throwing elbow.

[jersey cubs fan]

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

 

what do you mean throw out?

 

One of the things in favor of the two "lesser" prospects is that there are two of them. If the better guy gets hurt, that underscores part of the value of having quantity. You can't ignore that part of the equation.

 

I think he's referring to Tim's idea of figuring out if BA has gotten any better at picking out future successful Major Leaguers.

Yes, this. I don't expect anyone to predict that Mark Prior will get flipped by Marcuse Giles and then have Brad Hawpe hit a liner off of his throwing elbow.

 

You didn't have to predict the specifics once Dusty was hired.

[illiniguy]

Ok, I don't expect anyone to know a GM is going to bring in dusty baker years in advance.

[Quakers]

Do you throw out injuries when performing this exercise?

 

what do you mean throw out?

 

One of the things in favor of the two "lesser" prospects is that there are two of them. If the better guy gets hurt, that underscores part of the value of having quantity. You can't ignore that part of the equation.

 

I think he's referring to Tim's idea of figuring out if BA has gotten any better at picking out future successful Major Leaguers.

Yes, this. I don't expect anyone to predict that Mark Prior will get flipped by Marcuse Giles and then have Brad Hawpe hit a liner off of his throwing elbow.

 

You didn't have to predict the specifics once Dusty was hired.

 

 

How are the Rdes doing this year?

[Guest]

How are the Rdes doing this year?

 

 

Managers are basically never the reason a team wins. They can, however, quite easily be the reason lots of young pitchers get hurt.

[illiniguy]

Chasing the cardinals?