Minor League Discussion & Boxes 6-12-13

[CUBZ99]

So Baez has 3bbs on the day? Wonder when that happened last?

[ctcf]

It honestly feels like some switch just flipped in the guy's head. Pretty amazing run he's on.

[ScrubMD]

If Javy's newfound patience and reduced k rate is for real, he's going to be so good that I'll have to buy bigger pants to accommodate my permanent erection.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

BB rate up to 5.4%, K-rate down to 23.1%.

 

K:BB from ungodly 7+ down to 4.3.

[woodprior04]

Hopefully tonight is a case of Javy showing good patience rather than the opposing pitchers blatantly pitching around him after his 4 home run game.

[CarolinaCubFan]

It honestly feels like some switch just flipped in the guy's head. Pretty amazing run he's on.

 

As much as Javy does whatever he wants, he appears to be coachable. He went through a good slump and all of the sudden his approach changed.

[ctcf]

Well Javy went hitless for the day but I could care less because he took 3 walks and didn't strike out.

[davell]

I clearly am insane and don't study prospects at all close enough to make this statement, but I wouldn't trade Javy for any prospect in baseball right now. I know he has a huge bust potential, but I also think he has the highest ceiling of any guy in the minors.

 

I'd give him and Almora for Buxton.

 

Holy hyperbole. Kyle, you wouldn't actually do that, right?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I clearly am insane and don't study prospects at all close enough to make this statement, but I wouldn't trade Javy for any prospect in baseball right now. I know he has a huge bust potential, but I also think he has the highest ceiling of any guy in the minors.

 

I'd give him and Almora for Buxton.

 

Holy hyperbole. Kyle, you wouldn't actually do that, right?

 

I absolutely would. If Buxton isn't the best prospect in baseball right now, he will be this time next year for sure. Anytime you can take a step up in quality for some quantity, you do it.

[davell]

I clearly am insane and don't study prospects at all close enough to make this statement, but I wouldn't trade Javy for any prospect in baseball right now. I know he has a huge bust potential, but I also think he has the highest ceiling of any guy in the minors.

 

I'd give him and Almora for Buxton.

 

Holy hyperbole. Kyle, you wouldn't actually do that, right?

 

I absolutely would. If Buxton isn't the best prospect in baseball right now, he will be this time next year for sure. Anytime you can take a step up in quality for some quantity, you do it.

 

 

Holy crap. Really? Baez and Almora are far, far from "quantity" type pieces. Half a season in A Ball of Buxton does THAT much for you? I'll just say there's no way in hell I'd even consider a deal like that. I'm not denying Buxton is excellent, probably the top prospect in the game. But, I don't see his value anywhere near the combined value of those two.

[RammyFanny]

Buxton is really good. If you think he's a Trout type prospect, it's pretty understandable. I love our two guys, but i'd probably lean towards yes on that deal as well. Maybe his insane performance on TV the other day is just fresh in my head.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Holy crap. Really? Baez and Almora are far, far from "quantity" type pieces.

 

Everyone's a quantity piece compared to someone. It's a zen thing.

[Guest]

Hopefully tonight is a case of Javy showing good patience rather than the opposing pitchers blatantly pitching around him after his 4 home run game.

 

I'm fine with the latter as long as he's willing and able to take those when they're given to him (particularly at the Major League level).

[Guest]

I'm not even sure I'd trade Baez straight up for Buxton if the switch flip is real and he puts up the peripherals he has for the past month for another month or two.

[illiniguy]

I clearly am insane and don't study prospects at all close enough to make this statement, but I wouldn't trade Javy for any prospect in baseball right now. I know he has a huge bust potential, but I also think he has the highest ceiling of any guy in the minors.

 

I'd give him and Almora for Buxton.

 

Holy hyperbole. Kyle, you wouldn't actually do that, right?

 

I absolutely would. If Buxton isn't the best prospect in baseball right now, he will be this time next year for sure. Anytime you can take a step up in quality for some quantity, you do it.

Time warp to 01, I'd absolutely trade #89 Adrian Gonzalez and #91 Miguel Cabrera for #2 Corey Patterson. Did you see the numbers he just put up in low A?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Time warp to 01, I'd absolutely trade #89 Adrian Gonzalez and #91 Miguel Cabrera for #2 Corey Patterson. Did you see the numbers he just put up in low A?

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed.

 

In 1997, 89 and 91 for 2 would have been Glendon Rusch and Brad Rigby for Vladimir Guerrero.

[illiniguy]

Time warp to 01, I'd absolutely trade #89 Adrian Gonzalez and #91 Miguel Cabrera for #2 Corey Patterson. Did you see the numbers he just put up in low A?

 

Nothing is ever guaranteed.

 

In 1997, 89 and 91 for 2 would have been Glendon Rusch and Brad Rigby for Vladimir Guerrero.

I just think you need to see another year out of Buxton before you get too crazy giving up multiple top 30 guys for him. He's probably going to be more Vlad than Corey, but it's really early in his career to make that kind of gamble.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

It's early in all their careers. And it's irrelevant, because it's never actually going to really happen.

[Guest]

It's early in all their careers. And it's irrelevant, because it's never actually going to really happen.

 

As early as it is, given the fact that Almora has shown just as much as Buxton in low A (in about 1/3-1/4 the PA, admittedly), I'd have a really hard time throwing another really impressive top 15 or prospect in with him for Buxton. I know you love the pedigree that comes with being a #2 pick and all that [expletive], but I think in individual cases like this applying it isn't all that useful much given how different one draft class can be in terms of depth/quality than another. And because the draft is a crapshoot and even their small sample of performance means more than that at this point.

[ctcf]

Didn't think I'd read Glendon Rusch's name in one of these threads.

[WrigleyField 22]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

[Guest]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

So it can't be discussed from a hypothetical/theoretical standpoint then because it isn't likely to happen?

 

I'm pretty sure every conversation we have here is pointless beyond entertaining ourselves and maybe educating some people.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

But in a completely hypothetical sense, if I had a chance to trade two guys from the back of the top 20 for someone in the top 2, I'm doing it almost every time.

 

I'll get burned sometimes, but I'm pretty sure in the long run it's +EV.

[illiniguy]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

But in a completely hypothetical sense, if I had a chance to trade two guys from the back of the top 20 for someone in the top 2, I'm doing it almost every time.

 

I'll get burned sometimes, but I'm pretty sure in the long run it's +EV.

Sure, if you are blindly picking two guys from the back of the top 20.

 

That being said if Baez has developed his approach, and is now going to be as patient as this past month has been, he could be a top 5 guy all by himself. Not many SS hit 40 homers anymore, or have all the sexy slash lines that go along with that.

[Guest]

This is a pointless exercise. If you are trading two top 50 prospects you are doing so for an established player, not someone in low-A, no matter the pedigree.

 

But in a completely hypothetical sense, if I had a chance to trade two guys from the back of the top 20 for someone in the top 2, I'm doing it almost every time.

 

I'll get burned sometimes, but I'm pretty sure in the long run it's +EV.

 

I'm curious, so I'll try this with the BA top 20s I can find. Let's say #2 v. #15 & #19 ahead of time so I'm not biased to pick a particular spot at the back of the top 20.

 

http://i.imgur.com/zpecR0a.jpg

 

#15 & #19 run away with it. In sum they end up better, and they're more often better in any individual year as well.