Kap: Cubs expected to spend next winter

[davell]

I love David Price, but this would be much smarter. I wouldn't trade Moore and I doubt Tampa will, but there's quite a few other intriguing young arms to deal for.

[Andy]

Haha, I'm not against any of the possible moves, but I had a chuckle at the Pineda/Montero comparison since that deal has been one of the most colossal lose/lose trades (so far anyway) in recent memory.

[Guest]

That would...make me very happy.

 

Indeed. I was disappointed the Cubs couldn't get involved in the Bauer trade talks, but it'd be nice if they were looking for a similar acquisition instead of Price.

 

I just can't fathom the Rays trading Moore, especially considering what his price tag will be.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm glad we're looking for such trades, but such pitchers aren't exactly flooding the trade market each year. I won't hold my breath.

 

Seems like they are at least playing around with the idea of making a major push in 2014, which is cool.

[Guest]

I'm glad we're looking for such trades, but such pitchers aren't exactly flooding the trade market each year. I won't hold my breath.

 

Seems like they are at least playing around with the idea of making a major push in 2014, which is cool.

 

They have to hunt for such trades if there's as big a clamp on spending as has been suggested.

[Sammy Sofa]

But now it's being suggested that they CAN spend, so maybe....dual fronts?!?!

 

*Dramatic music cue*

[Hairyducked Idiot]

They have to hunt for such trades if there's as big a clamp on spending as has been suggested.

 

Sure. I mean, they have to no matter what. Our organizational pitching situation is still pretty dismal above rookie ball. We're going to need to add a bunch of pitchers in the upcoming offseason just like we did in the previous one, and that's not an easy thing to do in free agency alone no matter how much you have to spend.

[SABR Gamer]

The Cubsden guys dug around a bit after Rosenthal mentioned extending Garza and they said it really is a possibility, not necessarily just a ploy. Given his current situation, he could actually take a discount to stay, especially since he wants to be here. I like it.

 

As for spending, my hope is we add money thru trades, the FA class is just too weak. I'd prefer Choo to Ellsbury as well, but I kind of think Cincy keeps him. That extra 25 mill a year coming in seems earmarked for him.

 

For what its worth, I've heard from within the Reds FO that resigning Choo is a long shot for them. They offered him an extension when they traded for him and he wanted a considerable amount more than they were willing to go, and how he has played so far is only making it less likely they will be able to keep him.

[apete6]

But now it's being suggested that they CAN spend, so maybe....dual fronts?!?!

 

*Dramatic music cue*

 

Could be another way to put pressure on the stadium deal getting approved. If it doesn't, they can say "well, we would have signed Robinson Cano, but we don't have enough revenue from signage, so we have Darwin Barney and a cardboard cutout of the Big League Chew guy instead. Sorry. "

[KingCubsFan]

They have to hunt for such trades if there's as big a clamp on spending as has been suggested.

 

Sure. I mean, they have to no matter what. Our organizational pitching situation is still pretty dismal above rookie ball. We're going to need to add a bunch of pitchers in the upcoming offseason just like we did in the previous one, and that's not an easy thing to do in free agency alone no matter how much you have to spend.

Adding Vizcaino and Gray/Appel will help.

[Banedon]

would be the best this franchise has seen likely since the '03 Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Clement, Estes and more importantly one that rivals just about anyone in the game.

 

I know it had the Prior/Wood injuries, but '04 was what I think of when I think of the dream team rotation, with Maddux instead of Estes.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Adding Vizcaino and Gray/Appel will help.

 

They will, and it's still dismal. Epstein and Hoyer have been scrambling for pitching since the day they took over, and it's still this bad, which just goes to show what a hole they started with in that department.

 

They did an amazing job of patching as many holes as they could with mid-level pitching free agents this offseason, but it still just took two injuries and a Baker setback to sink the ship. All of a sudden we've got Kevin Gregg closing and trying to figure out if we can get away with Michael Bowden in high-leverage 8th-inning situations.

 

Contrast that with the Cardinals (a bit of an unfair comparison, because they are the best in baseball in this category). They've had just as many pitching injuries, and they still have the Baseball America podcast this week fapping over how they don't have room for three more young pitchers who could easily hold down an MLB rotation spot in a pinch.

 

Under contract for 2014 (and excluding the indistinguishable waiver-wire replacement-level guys), we've got Jackson, Samardzija, Wood, Villanueva, Fujikawa, Russell, Vizcaino. Even if we rather prematurely add in the No. 2 draft pick, that's eight guys including a fresh draft pick and a recent TJ rehabber. That's half-a-dozen pitchers short of where we probably need to be to be comfortable, given the attrition rates the position experiences.

[Cubswin11]

would be the best this franchise has seen likely since the '03 Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Clement, Estes and more importantly one that rivals just about anyone in the game.

 

I know it had the Prior/Wood injuries, but '04 was what I think of when I think of the dream team rotation, with Maddux instead of Estes.

2004 didn't happen

[GammonsPocketTweets]

I still hope we can make a run at Stanton using Baez and some other Hendry/Wilken garbage.

[illiniguy]

would be the best this franchise has seen likely since the '03 Wood, Prior, Zambrano, Clement, Estes and more importantly one that rivals just about anyone in the game.

 

I know it had the Prior/Wood injuries, but '04 was what I think of when I think of the dream team rotation, with Maddux instead of Estes.

2004 didn't happen

Let's also pretend that '05 and '06 didn't happen.

[Fro]

Adding Vizcaino and Gray/Appel will help.

 

They will, and it's still dismal. Epstein and Hoyer have been scrambling for pitching since the day they took over, and it's still this bad, which just goes to show what a hole they started with in that department.

 

They did an amazing job of patching as many holes as they could with mid-level pitching free agents this offseason, but it still just took two injuries and a Baker setback to sink the ship. All of a sudden we've got Kevin Gregg closing and trying to figure out if we can get away with Michael Bowden in high-leverage 8th-inning situations.

 

Contrast that with the Cardinals (a bit of an unfair comparison, because they are the best in baseball in this category). They've had just as many pitching injuries, and they still have the Baseball America podcast this week fapping over how they don't have room for three more young pitchers who could easily hold down an MLB rotation spot in a pinch.

 

Under contract for 2014 (and excluding the indistinguishable waiver-wire replacement-level guys), we've got Jackson, Samardzija, Wood, Villanueva, Fujikawa, Russell, Vizcaino. Even if we rather prematurely add in the No. 2 draft pick, that's eight guys including a fresh draft pick and a recent TJ rehabber. That's half-a-dozen pitchers short of where we probably need to be to be comfortable, given the attrition rates the position experiences.

 

The starting rotation's been good. The bullpen was really bad early but seems to have stablized in the last week or two.

 

Obviously you'd like more depth in the minor leagues but that's going to work itself out over the next few years.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The starting rotation's been good. The bullpen was really bad early but seems to have stablized in the last week or two.

 

Obviously you'd like more depth in the minor leagues but that's going to work itself out over the next few years.

 

It's been good right now, but pitching is a high-attrition position and the lack of depth does not bode well.

 

It's not an insurmountable problem, but imo it's the biggest one facing us in the next few years.

[Guest]

i would say the rotation seems like one of their least concerns over the next few years, especially if they just extend garza. that would give us samardzija/garza/jackson/wood all locked up for the next few years, with a few high ceiling prospects already in house (vizcaino, paniagua, pierce, appel/gray) with a chance to join the big league team in the next couple years. also, i don't think theo will have a problem finding solid FA SP bargains like he has the last 2 years, if he needs to fill out the rotation for some depth.

 

i think the concerns with the rotation are more long-term, and i think they'll be able to stock the system with pitching by that time.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

samardzija/garza/jackson/wood all locked up for the next few years, with a few high ceiling prospects already in house (vizcaino, paniagua, pierce, appel/gray) with a chance to join the big league team in the next couple years. also, i don't think theo will have a problem finding solid FA SP bargains like he has the last 2 years, if he needs to fill out the rotation for some depth..

 

Ordinary attrition would probably be expected to rob you of at least one of those locked-up four. Maybe you'll get luck and all four will still be useful in 2014 and 2015, but you might just as well be dealing with two of them falling off to injury or loss of skill. I mean, heck, heading into 2011 we had Zambrano (30), Randy Wells (28) and Cashner (24) all ready to go, and two years later none of them are here.

 

That list of high-ceiling prospects just isn't particularly impressive to me. I don't think Vizcaino can stick as a starter, we have no clue what Paniagua can do, Johnson is in low-A and we don't actually have Appel or Gray.

 

I don't think we should so easily assume that because Epstein/Hoyer did a fantastic job finding cheap, adequate pitching this offseason that they'll be able to do it every time. It reminds me of how we were going to keep making Rizzo-like acqusitions, except there still hasn't been one since.

 

Maybe things will go well, sure. Maybe Vizcaino can handle 30 starts a year, we draft Appel and he's in the rotation immediately, nobody gets hurt and we're loaded. But the implosion potential seems pretty high to me.

[Sammy Sofa]

I mean, heck, heading into 2011 we had Zambrano (30), Randy Wells (28) and Cashner (24) all ready to go, and two years later none of them are here.

 

You say that like Zambrano didn't have a massive track record of issues leading up to that point, like there wasn't a ton of doubt about Wells' ability to stick around the entire time he was with the team. Plus you're throwing Cashner out there like he wasn't moved for an upgrade, much as you did when you pointed out moving Marshall when they traded him for a...starting pitcher. Whoa, weird how things can work like that. Terrible example, Kyle. 2004 would have been much better. Nobody looked at the 2011 rotation and thought the Cubs were anywhere remotely near set, and it doesn't compare to the position they're in right now.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

You say that like Zambrano didn't have a massive track record of issues leading up to that point, like there wasn't a ton of doubt about Wells' ability to stick around the entire time he was with the team. Plus you're throwing Cashner out there like he wasn't moved for an upgrade, much as you did when you pointed out moving Marshall when they traded him for a...starting pitcher. Whoa, weird how things can work like that. Terrible example, Kyle. 2004 would have been much better.

 

Garza has a massive track record of issues leading up to this point (and hasn't actually been signed to any sort of extension), there's been a ton of doubt about Wood's ability to stick around, and we could easily trade any of them.

 

You could use almost any year. The 2009 Cubs had a 27-year-old Rich Harden. The 2007 Cubs had a 27-year-old Rich Hill and a 24-year-old Sean Marshall. The 2005 Cubs had a 24-year-old Mark Prior, a 28-year-old Kerry Wood and a 23-year-old Jerome Williams.

 

Starting pitcher is just a high-attrition position. A significant percentage of guys will get hurt, get moved to the pen, or simply lose effectiveness.

 

I'm a big fan of this chart (and the article it comes from):

 

Attrition rate for starting pitchers with at least 150 innings in the previous season:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/images/20030226_01_silver.gif

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1658

 

Even in their primes, starting pitchers have an attrition rate of about 1-in-7. You're going to lose 1-2 every two years on average.

[Sammy Sofa]

No [expletive]; I'm not disagreeing with the obvious point that there's a ton of fluctuation when it comes to pitchers panning out. I'm pointing out how terrible a comparison 2009 is. It's like you're constantly tripping over yourself to make a point over and over and over again.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

No [expletive]; I'm not disagreeing with the obvious point that there's a ton of fluctuation when it comes to pitchers panning out. I'm pointing out how terrible a comparison 2009 is. It's like you're constantly tripping over yourself to make a point over and over and over again.

 

What you call tripping over myself to make a point, I simply call backing up my point with information. It was 2011, and it wasn't meant to be a direct comparison. Since we were imagining going forward two years, I thought it'd be interesting to go back two years.

 

Getting back to the actual point of our short- and medium-term pitching outlook.

 

Actually under contract for 2015, we have:

 

Jeff Samardzija's age 30 season

Edwin Jackson's age 31 season

Travis Wood's age 28 season

 

And that's backed by one of the the least inspiring bunch of upper-minors pitching prospects in baseball.

 

We can hold it together with some skill, luck and money in the next two years. But if things go badly and we aren't a very good team by that time, I'd suspect lack of pitching to be the most likely culprit.

[Guest]

samardzija/garza/jackson/wood all locked up for the next few years, with a few high ceiling prospects already in house (vizcaino, paniagua, pierce, appel/gray) with a chance to join the big league team in the next couple years. also, i don't think theo will have a problem finding solid FA SP bargains like he has the last 2 years, if he needs to fill out the rotation for some depth..

 

Ordinary attrition would probably be expected to rob you of at least one of those locked-up four. Maybe you'll get luck and all four will still be useful in 2014 and 2015, but you might just as well be dealing with two of them falling off to injury or loss of skill. I mean, heck, heading into 2011 we had Zambrano (30), Randy Wells (28) and Cashner (24) all ready to go, and two years later none of them are here.

 

That list of high-ceiling prospects just isn't particularly impressive to me. I don't think Vizcaino can stick as a starter, we have no clue what Paniagua can do, Johnson is in low-A and we don't actually have Appel or Gray.

 

I don't think we should so easily assume that because Epstein/Hoyer did a fantastic job finding cheap, adequate pitching this offseason that they'll be able to do it every time. It reminds me of how we were going to keep making Rizzo-like acqusitions, except there still hasn't been one since.

 

Maybe things will go well, sure. Maybe Vizcaino can handle 30 starts a year, we draft Appel and he's in the rotation immediately, nobody gets hurt and we're loaded. But the implosion potential seems pretty high to me.

 

not just this offseason. the previous offseason too.

 

the arguments you're making can be made for pretty much every team. yea if we get a bunch of injuries and our pitchers suck and our prospects suck, then our rotation will suck. agreed.

Edited May 15, 2013 by 17 Seconds

[Sammy Sofa]

No [expletive]; I'm not disagreeing with the obvious point that there's a ton of fluctuation when it comes to pitchers panning out. I'm pointing out how terrible a comparison 2009 is. It's like you're constantly tripping over yourself to make a point over and over and over again.

 

What you call tripping over myself to make a point, I simply call backing up my point with information. It was 2011, and it wasn't meant to be a direct comparison. Since we were imagining going forward two years, I thought it'd be interesting to go back two years.

 

Well that's certainly arbitrary. Let's look ahead 6 years and look back 6! How about 4? Maybe 3.8. I'm sure all of these things would mean things.