Best early season surprise?

[bukie]

Defensive metrics confuse the hell out of me; I would have figured Wellington's value would be dragged down by how (seemingly) bad he's been behind the plate. Is it because more of that is blamed on the pitcher than what I'm guessing? Is his ability to throw out runners pushing it back up? Someone explain.

His ability to throw out runners outweighs his inability to keep balls in front of him.

[treebird]

Defensive metrics confuse the hell out of me; I would have figured Wellington's value would be dragged down by how (seemingly) bad he's been behind the plate. Is it because more of that is blamed on the pitcher than what I'm guessing? Is his ability to throw out runners pushing it back up? Someone explain.

His ability to throw out runners outweighs his inability to keep balls in front of him.

 

does uzr or anything make any effort to differentiate between wild pitches that might have been blocked by a better catcher? i'm sure castillo is being penalized for passed balls, but how much do these systems know that he's not blocking as many balls as he might?

 

i am generally wary of advanced defensive metrics when it comes to catchers and first baseman, as so much of their value comes excusing the mistakes of others. if things have improved in these areas, i'd be thrilled to hear about it. i won't pretend to be particularly up on things these days.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Castillo's problem is his terrible receiving of pitches. He needs to watch tape of Jose Molina or something.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There was something done like a year ago that plotted pitches on a graph both vertical and flat on the ground and judged catchers by what percentage of similar balls resulted in WP or PB. I can't find it now, though.

[Beer Kaese]

Travis Wood hands down. When the Jedi arrived Z was cancer and Dempster was old. No real talent in the system (see 2011). You gotta have pitching, it's why we over spent on Jackson.

[Sammy Sofa]

Travis Wood hands down. When the Jedi arrived Z was cancer and Dempster was old. No real talent in the system (see 2011). You gotta have pitching, it's why we over spent on Jackson.

 

Edwin Jackson is getting $13 million a year through the 2016 season.

 

According to Fangraphs he's been worth the following:

 

2009: $16.4 million

2010: $13.9 million

2011: $16.1 million

2012: $10.1 million

2013 (so far): $3.8 million

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Edwin Jackson is getting $13 million a year through the 2016 season.

 

Not that it matters, but Cot's either has that wrong or they are just using the luxury tax number rather than the actual dollar amount. He got an $8 million signing bonus and then gets $11 million a year from here on out.

[Sammy Sofa]

Edwin Jackson is getting $13 million a year through the 2016 season.

 

Not that it matters, but Cot's either has that wrong or they are just using the luxury tax number rather than the actual dollar amount. He got an $8 million signing bonus and then gets $11 million a year from here on out.

 

Call it what you want; I don't agree with him saying that Jackson is overpaid like they threw an ungodly amount at him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, he's totally not overpaid, and we had little choice even if he was. Our pitching is absurdly thin. We added a bunch and still don't have enough, and we'll need to add a bunch more next offseason.

[Derwood]

Valbuena's isoD is right sexy

[Guest]

Valbuena's isoD is right sexy

Ok, totally random rant...

 

I hate IsoD as a measure of discipline. Let's take an extreme example:

 

Player A has 10 PA, including one walk and nine outs. His IsoD is .100 (.100 OBP - .000 BA)

 

Player B has 10 PA, including one walk and nine hits. His IsoD is .000 (1.000 OBP - 1.000 BA)

 

Obviously, that's an extreme example. But the point is that I don't like using a metric to measure discipline that is somewhat dependent on a player's batting average. It's fine as a quick and dirty measure, but BB% is available just about everywhere now and is more accurate.

 

Sorry, end of rant.

[Derwood]

Fair enough, but over a large sample size, any isoD over .100 is pretty great, no matter how flawed the metric.

 

Valbuena's .117 is sexy (as is his 16 BB/17 K ratio)

 

Conversely, Castro's .024 is ugly as sin

[Guest]

Fair enough, but over a large sample size, any isoD over .100 is pretty great, no matter how flawed the metric.

 

Valbuena's .117 is sexy (as is his 16 BB/17 K ratio)

 

Conversely, Castro's .024 is ugly as sin

Sample size is irrelevant. Multiply all the numbers in my post by 1000 and the math is the same.

 

What matters is that the range of batting averages in question is much smaller than 0.000 - 1.000. Given the same number of walks and PA, the difference in IsoD for a guy batting .230 vs .320 isn't overwhelming.

 

But it's also enough that just using BB% makes much more sense.

[Guest]

Okay, as long as I'm discussing this in more detail:

 

IsoD has an advantage in that it also captures HBP. Even thought that doesn't reflect discipline, it is a repeatable way to get on base for some players.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Similarly, K% is way better than K/9.

[DiamondMind]

valbuena, t wood, villanueva's mustache, schierholtz

[Hawk4Hall]

Valbuena and Gregg for me.

[Guest]

I want to change my vote to Kevin Gregg. 1-2-3 yer out Bugs Bunny.

[imb]

How could it not be Travis Wood?

[sneakypower]

Wood now has the 3rd-best pitchers bWAR (2.2) in MLB

[ConstableRabbit]

Wood now has the 3rd-best pitchers bWAR (2.2) in MLB

That's amazing, considering his FB % (45%!). We're going to see some regression to the mean in the summer months...

[Guest]

Based on xFIP, Travis Wood has been our worst starter to date.

[Beer Kaese]

Travis Wood hands down. When the Jedi arrived Z was cancer and Dempster was old. No real talent in the system (see 2011). You gotta have pitching, it's why we over spent on Jackson.

 

Edwin Jackson is getting $13 million a year through the 2016 season.

 

According to Fangraphs he's been worth the following:

 

2009: $16.4 million

2010: $13.9 million

2011: $16.1 million

2012: $10.1 million

2013 (so far): $3.8 million

 

I don't have a problem with the contract. It was necessary to spend on a dependable arm for the next three years. (My only issue is the 4th year.) Let's look at his recent history. He was traded from Arizona to Detroit . . . Detroit let him walk and he signed with Chicago . . . Chicago let him walk and he signed with Washington . . . and Washington let him walk. It is not a contract that will bite the team but teams in search of a title didn't find him worth keeping.

[Sammy Sofa]

The Nationals have an excellent rotation and didn't need to sign someone like him going forward right now. The White Sox didn't have the money. Are you saying that you think there's something beyond his actual numbers/performance that should have kept the Cubs away? Or makes the fourth year a problem?

 

This isn't a bad contract at all.