Rizzo

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ok, let's get this back on the topic of Rizzo and not about a poster.

[Guest]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

[SABR Gamer]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

There's a reason he's projected to become the best first baseman in baseball. Everyone scoffs at the idea that Theo believes Rizzo is a generational talent, but he actually might be.

[Tryptamine]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

There's a reason he's projected to become the best first baseman in baseball. Everyone scoffs at the idea that Theo believes Rizzo is a generational talent, but he actually might be.

 

It would be nice if that comes to fruition, because it's looking like Manny Machado is becoming what I hoped Starlin Castro would be.

[Rob]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

Freddie Freeman

[Guest]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

Freddie Freeman

Ah, just doesn't have enough AB this year to be qualified.

[Guest]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

There's a reason he's projected to become the best first baseman in baseball. Everyone scoffs at the idea that Theo believes Rizzo is a generational talent, but he actually might be.

 

It would be nice if that comes to fruition, because it's looking like Manny Machado is becoming what I hoped Starlin Castro would be.

Yeah, what Machado is doing this year at age 20 is great. It's really time that Baltimore puts Hardy out to pasture and let Machado play SS where he belongs.

[Tryptamine]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

There's a reason he's projected to become the best first baseman in baseball. Everyone scoffs at the idea that Theo believes Rizzo is a generational talent, but he actually might be.

 

It would be nice if that comes to fruition, because it's looking like Manny Machado is becoming what I hoped Starlin Castro would be.

Yeah, what Machado is doing this year at age 20 is great. It's really time that Baltimore puts Hardy out to pasture and let Machado play SS where he belongs.

 

He's already put up a 1.6 fWAR at 3B. If he gets moved to SS he might be a 5 or 6 WAR player as a 20 year old.

[Guest]

I'm not sure Machado will keep up his current +45 UZR pace at SS. Or 3B for that matter.

[Guest]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

[SABR Gamer]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

 

I think if he becomes a more durable Longoria, that's best case scenario. Go check his Fangraphs page. Longoria is an absolute beast, and a generational talent.

 

Being better than that puts him in Harper/Trout territory, and I don't think Rizzo is on that level.

[UK1679666180]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

 

Ceiling-wise, I'm thinking McGriff.

[Gingerballs Lives]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

 

I think if he becomes a more durable Longoria, that's best case scenario. Go check his Fangraphs page. Longoria is an absolute beast, and a generational talent.

 

Being better than that puts him in Harper/Trout territory, and I don't think Rizzo is on that level.

 

Joey Votto-esque, I think.

 

Which would be awesome. He's going to be a fan favorite for a long time.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Is a left-handed Derrek Lee a bad comp?

[Guest]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

 

I think if he becomes a more durable Longoria, that's best case scenario. Go check his Fangraphs page. Longoria is an absolute beast, and a generational talent.

 

Being better than that puts him in Harper/Trout territory, and I don't think Rizzo is on that level.

 

i meant longoria at the plate

[neely crenshaw]

Derrek Lee would actually be the closest comp.

he was hitting .280s with homeruns in the high 20's with a OPS in the higher .800's

Votto has pretty much hit over .300 every year since he was 24(hit .297) with mid 20's hrs and he lowest ops was .874, his average OPS has got to be .950's- So Rizzo has a ways to go to even get in that realm.

He's actually more like the national league Adam Dunn (a little lower on ops) than he is like Votto.

How about before we elect him to the Hall of Fame we allow him to play an entire season, hit .270 get to 30hrs and post an .850 ops

 

Derrek Lee age 24- .281 28hr .875ops very good, but certainly not "generational".

[SABR Gamer]

so what do we think rizzo's realistic ceiling is like now? i was thinking longoria, but could he be better?

 

I think if he becomes a more durable Longoria, that's best case scenario. Go check his Fangraphs page. Longoria is an absolute beast, and a generational talent.

 

Being better than that puts him in Harper/Trout territory, and I don't think Rizzo is on that level.

 

i meant longoria at the plate

 

Rizzo should end up being a better hitter than Longoria, he's pretty much as good already. I would be a bit disappointed if Rizzo's offensive ceiling was Longoria. Evan has basically been a ~.370/.375 wOBA, I would hope Rizzo can be at least a .385/.390 guy, maybe higher.

[neely crenshaw]

He's never done that, other than in the PCL where is batting average was 70-80 points higher than any other year. Heck, if he picks it up a bit he can be Leon Durham circa '81-'87....

[SABR Gamer]

He's never done that, other than in the PCL where is batting average was 70-80 points higher than any other year. Heck, if he picks it up a bit he can be Leon Durham circa '81-'87....

 

He was young for all his levels in the minor leagues and he's already at .368 this year with the bad babip luck. He can easily become a .380/.390 wOBA hitter.

[neely crenshaw]

OK I can go with the age, that gives us hope, but he is at .328 according to baseball reference.

It's hard for me to say he can do something easily...when he has never done it.

Lee and Durham both broke in at 24, a year older than Rizzo. They both posted stats that Rizzo hasn't yet. They both basically maintained that same performance for the next 6-7 years, why are we so sure Rizzo will make a leap from very good to "generational"?

Pujols was generational..he broke in at 21, and never hit below .312 for the next 10 years. He has 1 year below .997 OPS, and that was still .955 . 4 seasons were above1.100 OPS

Fielder broke in at 22, he has posted .287 avg .932ops in those 8 season hitting 30 or more every year but 1 (25)

 

how about this for a comp:

Rizzo 2012 (age 22) 87 games .285 avg .342 ob% .805 ops

Durham 1981 (age 23) 87 games .290 avg .344 ob% .804ops

[Guest]

wOBA, not OBP. After today's game, Rizzo's wOBA is .366

[Guest]

OK I can go with the age, that gives us hope, but he is at .328 according to baseball reference.

It's hard for me to say he can do something easily...when he has never done it.

Lee and Durham both broke in at 24, a year older than Rizzo. They both posted stats that Rizzo hasn't yet. They both basically maintained that same performance for the next 6-7 years, why are we so sure Rizzo will make a leap from very good to "generational"?

Pujols was generational..he broke in at 21, and never hit below .312 for the next 10 years. He has 1 year below .997 OPS, and that was still .955 . 4 seasons were above1.100 OPS

Fielder broke in at 22, he has posted .287 avg .932ops in those 8 season hitting 30 or more every year but 1 (25)

 

how about this for a comp:

Rizzo 2012 (age 22) 87 games .285 avg .342 ob% .805 ops

Durham 1981 (age 23) 87 games .290 avg .344 ob% .804ops

I think you're missing the "w" part of wOBA

[neely crenshaw]

My bad! missed that completely. Appreciate you pointing that out without any "extras".

 

 

I still found the half year comp of Durham intriguing/weird!

Two young Cubs First baseman, who played exactly 87 games each, and posted almost identical stat lines..

[neely crenshaw]

I was trying to come up with a better young 1B than Rizzo and was shocked how few young 1B there are in MLB right now. In fact, there are only two starting 1B that are 24 or under: Hosmer and Rizzo.

 

Dude's a stud.

 

Tim, Do you think it's possible that's because 1B tends to be an older position?

Also while looking at the future remember a lot of first baseman come from other positions. Votto was catcher, Pujols played everywhere, lots of outfielders,catchers, and third basemen make the switch. How does the future change if Stanton(23) is moved to first? or even a Harper or Trout? Either could be moved to save them from killing themselves on defense.

You have young offensive catchers like Santana(27), Arencibia(27) and Rosario(23) that could very well be moved to maximize their offense.

Even Lake and Soler are big men that could be moved to first at some point.

 

It used to be they moved you to first because you couldn't play the other position, now they move you to reduce wear and tear for longevity sake, and to maximize offense.

Edited May 6, 2013 by neely crenshaw

[Guest]

Votto only caught 7 games in Rookie ball and was a 1B through his career, but that's an important point on both sides. Elite 1B need to be offensively elite for all positions since the best hitters get funneled there when injuries or need for defense elsewhere strikes. At the same time, someone who can even approach that level of offense at Rizzo's age has a good chance to be a cornerstone player.