Random Cubs Musings: Minor League Edition

[davell]

Read this elsewhere:

 

When answering questions today about Baez following his performance last night, someone mentioned the 26 errors Baez has made so far and Theo emphatically replied "We feel more confident now about his ability to play SS at the Major League level than we did at the beginning of the season."

 

Did this happen?

Again, people here are putting too much emphasis on the errors. Horrible field and a horrible defensive first baseman has quite a bit to do with that number. I read he's got more throwing errors than fielding(unsure if true). But if it is, even if a solid first baseman saved 7 or 8 of them, the number wouldn't look that bad.

[KingCubsFan]

So the MLB Network guys were just fawning over Baez and then proceeded to speculate about where he'd end up playing... saying Castro is at SS and they just drafted Bryant, maybe he would play the OF...

 

Aside from other things wrong with that logic, why do so few mention 2B as a possible future position for Baez? It seems like it's right there in their faces and they just gloss right over it. Like it has to be intentional and I can't figure out why. This isn't the first time I've heard this conversation play out that way.

Baez has a pretty strong arm, but may eventually lack the range for the SS position, so those guys generally move to 3B. I don't see why he couldn't play 2B though.

[KingCubsFan]

Funny, I was thinking today that the chances of him ending up in the OF are underrated.

 

There are three reasons you might shift him from SS:

 

1) He gets too big for the position

2) He makes too many errors trying to field ground balls and convert them to outs

3) You want to improve his long-term health outlook because his bat is so valuable.

 

Moving to 2b doesn't really solve any of them, and to 3b only does partially.

4) You want to get his bat in the lineup, and the other positions are filled by good players.

[Guest]

So the MLB Network guys were just fawning over Baez and then proceeded to speculate about where he'd end up playing... saying Castro is at SS and they just drafted Bryant, maybe he would play the OF...

 

Aside from other things wrong with that logic, why do so few mention 2B as a possible future position for Baez? It seems like it's right there in their faces and they just gloss right over it. Like it has to be intentional and I can't figure out why. This isn't the first time I've heard this conversation play out that way.

Baez has a pretty strong arm, but may eventually lack the range for the SS position, so those guys generally move to 3B. I don't see why he couldn't play 2B though.

 

Exactly...at least, barring some scenario where he outgrows ANY infield position or something like Kyle said. My question is more related to the being blocked by Castro scenario, not the being deemed not good enough to play the infield scenario.

[davell]

Its likely something as simple as not wanting to waste a strong arm at 2B.

[Guest]

Its likely something as simple as not wanting to waste a strong arm at 2B.

 

Which is kind of dumb. They definitely should not be using his arm as a primary determining factor in what position he plays at the major league level (mainly in the sense that he'd play a less premium position because his arm is "too strong" for the more premium one, that is - obviously if an arm is too weak for a given position, that would be a real issue).

Edited June 12, 2013 by David

[Guest]

Theo and Sveum comments on Javy:

 

Cubs officials enjoyed watching video of Javier Baez’s four home run night on Monday.

 

“It was quite a show,” Epstein said. “He sprayed it around, covered different parts of the strike zone, different pitches. His swing is really under control and that’s the great thing about Javy and his bat speed. He doesn’t have to swing for the fences. He can take a nice, normal under control swing, the type that would normally produce a line drive or a ball in the gap, and in his case there’s plenty of carry over the fences.”

 

Dale Sveum watched video of Baez’s blasts.

 

“I wish I could’ve seen where they landed,” Sveum said Tuesday. “The swings were pretty good. I’ve been watching the video anyway, but one good thing about it is he’s calmed down. He’s cut down his movement [on his swing] about 40 percent, 50 percent. It’s a lot more calm and controled.”

 

Baez, 20, the Cubs’ No. 1 Draft pick in 2011, was batting .291 with 13 home runs and 44 RBIs in 57 games. He’s also been charged with 26 errors.

 

“A lot of his errors have been extreme plays at the end of his range or weird things on rundowns or trying to do too much,” Epstein said. “He needs to polish that up. We actually feel better at this moment about his ability to play shortstop every day in the big leagues than we did on Opening Day because of the way he’s playing shortstop. He needs to clean it up but I have no doubt he can play shortstop at the big league level.”

 

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2013/06/11/611-extra-bases-2/

 

 

 

More Theo on Javy (This from Bruce - some overlap in quotes):

 

Can one game move the needle on a player's timetable to shoot up through the minor leagues?

 

That was the question to Cubs President Theo Epstein on Tuesday, one day after shortstop Javier Baez hit 4 home runs for Class A Daytona against Fort Myers.

 

The 20-year-old Baez joined former Cubs farmhand and 2003 top pick Ryan Harvey as the only players to have hit 4 homers in a Florida State League game.

 

The Cubs aren't going to rush Baez, their first-round draft pick from 2011, but Epstein did address the move-the-needle question.

 

"In some ways it can," he said. "We ask players to execute the player-development plan. That's how they get to the next level. A night like that, if it's part of a longer stretch, and so far it has been this month, where he clearly dominates his competition, that gets him closer to moving up.

 

"Any one night or any one game in itself doesn't really change the progression or the pattern of the player. He's doing really well. What stands out to me more than the power ... (is) he's really started to have better quality at-bats and have his swing under control more and cut his strikeout rate down a little bit and seeing some more pitches. He still got some polish to his game before he moves through the organization."

 

Baez has a hitting line of .291/.339/.570 with 13 homers and 44 RBI. He also has 26 errors. However, Epstein said many of the errors have come on "extreme plays at the end of his range" or on rundown plays.

 

"We actually feel better at this moment about his ability to play shortstop every day in the big leagues than we did on Opening Day because of the way he's playing shortstop," Epstein said.

 

http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20130611/sports/706119685/

[Guest]

Brett brings up a good point if Javy is promoted to AA soon (not that his development shouldn't take priority over every one of these guys):

 

Moving Baez up to AA Tennessee within the next few weeks now seems like a very realistic possibility.

 

The only rub there is playing time, which Baez is obviously going to need at shortstop. Arismendy Alcantara has emerged as a very legitimate prospect for the Tennessee Smokies, though he’s only been playing part-time at shortstop. If he’s not ready to move up to AAA Iowa – Alcantara is just 21, although he’s hitting very well – Alcantara could spend more time at second base. But then the Cubs run into some tricky decisions with what to do with Roni Torreyes (another legit prospect, mostly playing second base) and Christian Villanueva (another legit prospect, mostly playing third base).

 

The glut is a good problem to have, but is a problem that requires solving before Baez can be promoted. Because when Baez comes up to AA, one thing’s for sure: he’s the priority at shortstop.

 

http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/06/12/is-javier-baez-getting-close-to-a-promotion/

[davell]

Its likely something as simple as not wanting to waste a strong arm at 2B.

 

Which is kind of dumb. They definitely should not be using his arm as a primary determining factor in what position he plays at the major league level (mainly in the sense that he'd play a less premium position because his arm is "too strong" for the more premium one, that is - obviously if an arm is too weak for a given position, that would be a real issue).

Less wear and tear at 3B than at 2B? Makes sense to me. Couple that with the arm strength thing, seems plausible. As an aside, it doesn't matter to me which spot he winds up at.

[Guest]

Its likely something as simple as not wanting to waste a strong arm at 2B.

 

Which is kind of dumb. They definitely should not be using his arm as a primary determining factor in what position he plays at the major league level (mainly in the sense that he'd play a less premium position because his arm is "too strong" for the more premium one, that is - obviously if an arm is too weak for a given position, that would be a real issue).

Less wear and tear at 3B than at 2B? Makes sense to me. Couple that with the arm strength thing, seems plausible. As an aside, it doesn't matter to me which spot he winds up at.

 

3B is fine. I just can't explain why someone would jump to OF rather than 2B after ruling out 3B and SS because of being blocked by certain players (in the case of their discussion, Castro and Bryant).

[SouthSideRyan]

Read this elsewhere:

 

When answering questions today about Baez following his performance last night, someone mentioned the 26 errors Baez has made so far and Theo emphatically replied "We feel more confident now about his ability to play SS at the Major League level than we did at the beginning of the season."

 

Did this happen?

Again, people here are putting too much emphasis on the errors. Horrible field and a horrible defensive first baseman has quite a bit to do with that number. I read he's got more throwing errors than fielding(unsure if true). But if it is, even if a solid first baseman saved 7 or 8 of them, the number wouldn't look that bad.

 

Yeah, if most people can be above caring about total errors in the majors., I don't understand why there's so much focus on it at the minor leauge level.

[Guest]

 

Yeah, if most people can be above caring about total errors in the majors., I don't understand why there's so much focus on it at the minor leauge level.

 

Especially when they mean even less in the minors.

 

That said, I mean, I guess I get how people care when they're as alarmingly high as Baez's have been.

[davell]

Oh OK. In no way would I move Javy out of the IF to accomodate Bryant. Who actually has questions concerning his ability to stick at 3B. My guess is Bryant winds up as our longterm LF.

[Guest]

Oh OK. In no way would I move Javy out of the IF to accomodate Bryant. Who actually has questions concerning his ability to stick at 3B. My guess is Bryant winds up as our longterm LF.

 

Ideally, I'd rather do neither and put Javy at 2B and Bryant at 3B.

 

That said, if Alcantara wants to force the issue, that'd be just fine with me too.

 

Most likely though, we'll be lucky if half of them pan out to the point where things like this are an issue... even though an all young, mostly home grown lineup like that would be all kinds of fun.

[jersey cubs fan]

Lineup

 

5. Soler LF

 

7. Lake RF (nobody else to put there)

8

 

Isn't Soler the RF of the future?

[Guest]

Lineup

 

5. Soler LF

 

7. Lake RF (nobody else to put there)

8

 

Isn't Soler the RF of the future?

 

Yes.

[Guest]

David, I might be misunderstanding your question here but if you're wondering why most people think Baez's likeliest move is from SS to 3B to OF, it's clearly just because that's how most players move on the defensive scale (generally because they get bigger, age, lose a step, etc). It's the lazy, easy answer - it's just how things have been done - while not paying specific attention to this individual scenario. I don't see why Baez couldn't play 2B.

[Guest]

David, I might be misunderstanding your question here but if you're wondering why most people think Baez's likeliest move is from SS to 3B to OF, it's clearly just because that's how most players move on the defensive scale (generally because they get bigger, age, lose a step, etc). It's the lazy, easy answer - it's just how things have been done - while not paying specific attention to this individual scenario. I don't see why Baez couldn't play 2B.

 

My question was really more related toward why people seem to always skip over 2B when talking about where he'd play if he's blocked at SS and/or 3B. It came up specifically on MLBN yesterday and it wasn't really about where he'd be if he got bigger or lost a step. It was about where the Cubs could make room for him with Castro at SS and Bryant potentially slated for 3B. I have no idea why those guys would rather stick him in the OF than at 2B and I've seen other conversations on this exact issue go the same direction. Often the discussion then goes to "Well Baez's arm would be wasted at 2B" which is absolutely ridiculous to me....(but the MLBN guys didn't go that direction at all...they just didn't even mention 2B).

 

Totally understand the idea that he might outgrow the infield or lose a step as he ages.

[jersey cubs fan]

David, I might be misunderstanding your question here but if you're wondering why most people think Baez's likeliest move is from SS to 3B to OF, it's clearly just because that's how most players move on the defensive scale (generally because they get bigger, age, lose a step, etc). It's the lazy, easy answer - it's just how things have been done - while not paying specific attention to this individual scenario. I don't see why Baez couldn't play 2B.

 

My question was really more related toward why people seem to always skip over 2B when talking about where he'd play if he's blocked at SS and/or 3B. It came up specifically on MLBN yesterday and it wasn't really about where he'd be if he got bigger or lost a step. It was about where the Cubs could make room for him with Castro at SS and Bryant potentially slated for 3B. I have no idea why those guys would rather stick him in the OF than at 2B and I've seen other conversations on this exact issue go the same direction. Often the discussion then goes to "Well Baez's arm would be wasted at 2B" which is absolutely ridiculous to me....(but the MLBN guys didn't go that direction at all...they just didn't even mention 2B).

 

Totally understand the idea that he might outgrow the infield or lose a step as he ages.

 

Even if he loses a step 2B can still be the next stop. My guess is that while the focus may have been on what they will do with Castro around, there was still an assumption being made that he'd outgrow the middle infield.

 

MLBN went crazy with talks about how this year's draftees affect the major league rosters of the teams that drafted them, immediately. It's just a talking point meant to fill airtime, not meaningful at all.

[EhDubya]

For all you dreamers out there... what is the sexiest looking 2015 lineup you can imagine, based off of what we have in our system now?

[Guest]

For all you dreamers out there... what is the sexiest looking 2015 lineup you can imagine, based off of what we have in our system now?

 

C - Castillo (since it has to be based on what we already have)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Alcantara

3B - Baez

SS - Castro

LF - Soler/Bryant

CF - Almora

RF - Bryant/Soler

SP - Samardzija

[Guest]

For all you dreamers out there... what is the sexiest looking 2015 lineup you can imagine, based off of what we have in our system now?

 

C - Castillo (since it has to be based on what we already have)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Alcantara

3B - Baez

SS - Castro

LF - Soler/Bryant

CF - Almora

RF - Bryant/Soler

SP - Samardzija

 

2016, maybe. Don't think Almora will be ready in 2015.

[Sammy Sofa]

But Stanton isn't in there.

[Guest]

For all you dreamers out there... what is the sexiest looking 2015 lineup you can imagine, based off of what we have in our system now?

 

C - Castillo (since it has to be based on what we already have)

1B - Rizzo

2B - Alcantara

3B - Baez

SS - Castro

LF - Soler/Bryant

CF - Almora

RF - Bryant/Soler

SP - Samardzija

 

2016, maybe. Don't think Almora will be ready in 2015.

 

High A half of this year, AA at some point next year, mid-late season 2015 callup

 

Let's do it

[Guest]

2015 is probably the first year you can expect significant playing time from Soler, maybe Baez and Bryant if things go well. 2016 would see Almora, Vogelbach, and maybe Candelario join them. So sexy in the "home grown lineup" sense? By 2016 you could reasonably have:

 

Bryant/Almora/Soler

 

Baez/Castro/Barney/Rizzo

 

Castillo

 

Because of how new to MLB that lineup would be I'm not sure if it'd be sexy in the "Score ALL THE RUNS" sense, but the future would almost assuredly be very bright.

 

The good news here is that we're talking about waves of 3 legitimate hitting prospects per year, so even with expected attrition there's still talent feeding the MLB team even if any one or two guys fail.