Random Cubs Musings

[neely crenshaw]

We mentioned Kemp during the Stanton rant. What about looking at him? Obviously he has been injured, unhappy and not exactly himself stat-wise. All which could be could for lowering trade value. He has a big deal 5 years-107 mil left after this year.

He seems to be in a similar situation to Soriano-probably even worse because of length of deal, and he isn't producing-which at Soriano was.

We certainly haven't been shy about spending money to get rid of players, paying players to play for others, so paying 20 mil for a guy who actually plays for you isn't any worse than paying almost 20 for Z and Soriano to play elsewhere.

Kemp could bounce back at least offensively in a much friendly home park, and playing full-time.

Beyond that I have to believe if the dodgers want anything in return, they are going to have to pay a lot of his salary, maybe all of it. They do not need him, they have 3 other OF's playing better, and possibly there best is tearing up triple A.

So maybe for a low level prospect or 2, we could land a potentially free or low cost all star bat.

Because of his problems I wouldn't want to pay him anything near full salary or give up much, but it might be a low enough gamble on cost and assets to look at.

The Dodgers need to deal him, and I'm sure they want to deal him. I also know they probably don't want to deal him to anyone that could compete with them now or in the near future-which doesn't leave many options. I'm sure they would love to get some value but I don't see many takers on his salary or for good prospects.

I know they don't want to DFA him, then he could go anywhere and I'm sure he'd love to find a place to go against them.

Maybe Vogelbach or similar would get it done. It sure looks like his value to this organization is to be a trade chip.

[sneakypower]

Castillo's slash line down to 244/288/388.

 

We probably won't be able to get around to it soon because of all the other holes, but catcher will need upgrading/replacing in the next few years while we are thinking about maybe trying to be good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

[neely crenshaw]

That's great but most of that is from last year. He is producing .4 thru 25% of the games this year, which puts him at 1.6 war for this year. What he did last year does not help us much now.

Geovanny Soto had 2 nice season for us, where he put up 3.6 and 3.7 war, but he has never done that again. If Castillo rebounds, great but it's not a sure thing.

War is very much a reflective stat. It can tell you who had a good year, but it is not very good as a predictive stat.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Castillo's slash line down to 244/288/388.

 

We probably won't be able to get around to it soon because of all the other holes, but catcher will need upgrading/replacing in the next few years while we are thinking about maybe trying to be good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Hmm. Why was that endpoint chosen? Why not 2012 to 2014? Why not 2014 alone?

[Guest]

Castillo's slash line down to 244/288/388.

 

We probably won't be able to get around to it soon because of all the other holes, but catcher will need upgrading/replacing in the next few years while we are thinking about maybe trying to be good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Hmm. Why was that endpoint chosen? Why not 2012 to 2014? Why not 2014 alone?

The last 12 months would have looked even better.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

None of which fully answers the more important question of what we are going to get from him going forward.

[Guest]

None of which fully answers the more important question of what we are going to get from him going forward.

I'd really like to see if he can have a strong second half again before answering that question.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

*shrug* OK, guess we won't DFA him today after all.

[sneakypower]

Castillo's slash line down to 244/288/388.

 

We probably won't be able to get around to it soon because of all the other holes, but catcher will need upgrading/replacing in the next few years while we are thinking about maybe trying to be good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

Hmm. Why was that endpoint chosen? Why not 2012 to 2014? Why not 2014 alone?

he played as a back-up in 2012, so it's not super relevant to how he compares to other full-time C using a reasonable time-frame

 

nonetheless if you want to include it 2012 is a data point in his favor, as he played at 2.3 fWAR 120 G pace

Edited June 2, 2014 by sneakypower

[Guest]

*shrug* OK, guess we won't DFA him today after all.

Playing Baker full time would help with that #1 pick in 2015, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hmm. Why was that endpoint chosen? Why not 2012 to 2014? Why not 2014 alone?

he played as a back-up in 2012, so it's not super relevant to how he compares to other full-time C using a reasonable time-frame

 

Well, if you believe that "how he's ranked in fWAR over the last 1.5 years" is absolutely the entirety of the discussion to be had, then you've made your point completely and thoroughly.

[jersey cubs fan]

It seems pretty obvious to me they will need new bodies at the catcher position before they start winning division titles. I would never rely on a catcher to stay productive for longer than 2-3 seasons. Might as well keep him around in the meantime, but don't get crazy with an extension or ignore potential replacements.

[neely crenshaw]

You're basically looking at last season as a starter and the first quarter of this season. It's what he has done as a starter, which obviously has been solid BUT most of that is last season, and until he shows it's his "norm" there should be concerns about what he will produce especially with his defensive flaws.

 

Good point on change, unless you have someone special like a Posey or Molina, change over every few years is probably a good idea.

 

Can't say there's a stat for it but I have to believe catching almost everyday in the daytime heat has got to take a toll on production.

 

let's just hope he warms up like last year and gets back to that production

[Backtobanks]

We mentioned Kemp during the Stanton rant. What about looking at him? Obviously he has been injured, unhappy and not exactly himself stat-wise. All which could be could for lowering trade value. He has a big deal 5 years-107 mil left after this year.

He seems to be in a similar situation to Soriano-probably even worse because of length of deal, and he isn't producing-which at Soriano was.

We certainly haven't been shy about spending money to get rid of players, paying players to play for others, so paying 20 mil for a guy who actually plays for you isn't any worse than paying almost 20 for Z and Soriano to play elsewhere.

Kemp could bounce back at least offensively in a much friendly home park, and playing full-time.

Beyond that I have to believe if the dodgers want anything in return, they are going to have to pay a lot of his salary, maybe all of it. They do not need him, they have 3 other OF's playing better, and possibly there best is tearing up triple A.

So maybe for a low level prospect or 2, we could land a potentially free or low cost all star bat.

Because of his problems I wouldn't want to pay him anything near full salary or give up much, but it might be a low enough gamble on cost and assets to look at.

The Dodgers need to deal him, and I'm sure they want to deal him. I also know they probably don't want to deal him to anyone that could compete with them now or in the near future-which doesn't leave many options. I'm sure they would love to get some value but I don't see many takers on his salary or for good prospects.

I know they don't want to DFA him, then he could go anywhere and I'm sure he'd love to find a place to go against them.

Maybe Vogelbach or similar would get it done. It sure looks like his value to this organization is to be a trade chip.

 

Dodgers get Vogelbach with Cubs getting Kemp + $55 million sounds great to me.

[neely crenshaw]

I don't think that sounds to crazy or out of line. I could see them paying more possibly.

 

Soriano had less time left on his deal but also was producing. We got a good class A pitcher and paid 75% of the deal.

 

Black was rated 25th best prospect in the Yankee organization, Vogelbach is our 9th rated. Obviously a lot more cash to cover for his deal, but the Dodgers don't seem shy about spending.

he's not producing like 21mil player but even in his terrible years he's not bad(.725 ops), and most of that is in Dodger stadium, Wrigley in summer and playing full-time would have to help

[DiamondMind]

[Splendid Splinter]

I don't care what Donaldson has become the Harden deal was still a great deal for the Cubs.

 

 

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[DiamondMind]

Someone explain to me why Bryant won't be called up this year. I don't care about what it costs us - this team has the money. I don't care about "stunting his growth" - because that is [expletive], dude is a monster.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Someone explain to me why Bryant won't be called up this year. I don't care about what it costs us - this team has the money. I don't care about "stunting his growth" - because that is [expletive], dude is a monster.

 

Because we haven't dug out all the anti-personnel mines around 3b and want to make sure if there's one that's been missed, a guy like Olt or Valbuena is all that's at risk. We can't keep having our HOF third basemen lose legs.

[Guest]

Someone explain to me why Bryant won't be called up this year. I don't care about what it costs us - this team has the money. I don't care about "stunting his growth" - because that is [expletive], dude is a monster.

 

Because we haven't dug out all the anti-personnel mines around 3b and want to make sure if there's one that's been missed, a guy like Olt or Valbuena is all that's at risk. We can't keep having our HOF third basemen lose legs.

Jokes in poor taste seem to be in vogue tonight.

[SouthSideRyan]

Someone explain to me why Bryant won't be called up this year. I don't care about what it costs us - this team has the money. I don't care about "stunting his growth" - because that is [expletive], dude is a monster.

 

Because we haven't dug out all the anti-personnel mines around 3b and want to make sure if there's one that's been missed, a guy like Olt or Valbuena is all that's at risk. We can't keep having our HOF third basemen lose legs.

Jokes in poor taste seem to be in vogue tonight.

 

I think Bill Mueller is over his knee injury, Tim

[KingCubsFan]

I find it strange that Rizzo is on pace for only 14 doubles.

[Guest]

So...just for fun...

 

After 39 games the Cubs sat at 13-26 with a near even run differential and there was much debating about how good the team actually would be over the remainder of the season. We are not nearly far enough into things to be able to make any judgments, but I thought I'd cherry pick this time to point out how things have progressed.

 

In particular, I was pinned down on what I'd predict the record to be over the next 39 games. We are now 17 games into that 39 and our record in those games is 9-8.

 

While we have a winning record since then, our run differential has actually gotten worse. I said then and I'll say now that the actual ability of this team was probably closer to pythagorean record of .500 than the actual record of .333. What we are seeing is those numbers converging as we get a bit deeper into the season.

[SouthSideRyan]

I don't know how to find the stupid thread but as long as we're making brags halfway into an already limited sample I said they'd be closer to 500 than 333 too. I think most people did. And you didn't think they were a 500 team in spite of their run differential saying they were

[neely crenshaw]

So...just for fun...

 

After 39 games the Cubs sat at 13-26 with a near even run differential and there was much debating about how good the team actually would be over the remainder of the season. We are not nearly far enough into things to be able to make any judgments, but I thought I'd cherry pick this time to point out how things have progressed.

 

In particular, I was pinned down on what I'd predict the record to be over the next 39 games. We are now 17 games into that 39 and our record in those games is 9-8.

 

While we have a winning record since then, our run differential has actually gotten worse. I said then and I'll say now that the actual ability of this team was probably closer to pythagorean record of .500 than the actual record of .333. What we are seeing is those numbers converging as we get a bit deeper into the season.

it may have more to do with playing San Diego 4 times(2-2) and the Mets(2-0). Prior that 17 games they had just gone 1-5 vs STL/ATL.

This is a team with good pitching and very,very streaky players. When we lose we will keep it close, when our offense rolls, we win by a lot, but that simply doesn't happen often enough.

We have Rizzo and Valbuena above .800 ops, and then Castro is above .700 and no other regulars above .700- That's just not a potential .500 team.