Random Cubs Musings

[mookie]

Thank you for filling out all those comment cards.

[XZero771679666304]

I want all the Cubs discussion. With all the navel gazing about how smart this place is, there's like four interesting baseball posts a day on average.

 

Quality posts have been flagging in recent years for sure, but it's still better than PSD. It's not an endorsement of NSBB so much as a condemnation of PSD.

 

But in these lean times quality discussion has been on the decline across all Cubs forums that I'm aware of.

[Sammy Sofa]

Yeah, man, NSBB's really slacking when it comes to getting in on all the torrent of Cubs' discussion topics right now.

[mookie]

We Sox. Discuss.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

OK, if anyone accidentally clicks on this thread, I guess I'll post some random Cubs musings to make it slightly less a waste of a page and a half of posts.

 

I really, really like what the Cubs have done over the last month or so. Arrieta, Strop, Grimm and maybe Neil Ramirez go a long, long way toward addressing what was our biggest hole for 2014, the lack of pitching depth. We should be able to get a couple of decent (i.e. not sub-replacement) relievers out of that bunch, and maybe even a fifth starter. That takes a ton of the pressure off of our upcoming offseason in terms of finding a volume of useful pitchers.

 

Unless all those guys (and Hendricks, and Cabrera, and a few others) all turn out to be terrible, we should have a fairly decent team in 2014. Our pythagorean projection is right around 78-79 wins right now (right where a few of us optimists projected we'd be) and I'm fairly certain we can beat that projection by next spring.

 

In 2012, one of the stories of the season was just how inexplicably awful we were at finding successful bargain-basement and mid-level guys. That was something the front office had been really good at in Boston. They went back to normal pretty solidly this year, getting solid contributions offensively from Schierholtz, Hairston (if his BABIP hadn't messed him up), Valbuena, Navarro, Ransom, Sweeney. I'm pretty sure we can repeat that success again next year.

 

Losing Garza is going to sting, but we've got the money to replace him with someone in the same ballpark, presuming we can find such a pitcher available. It's not really going to be money so much as just limited supply that might keep us from getting a quality pitcher this offseason.

 

What I'm hoping is that we go out and get an outfielder this offseason, someone the equivalent of Edwin Jackson in price and quality, as our big piece. Either a CFer and push DeJesus to LF, or pretend that DeJesus is a CFer for another season. Unless Lake's magic continues the rest of the year, you can give him a bench role with the plan to give him 300-400 PAs.

 

We can mostly stand pat with the infield. Give Olt the 3b job unless he just continues to fall apart at Iowa, then trade Barney for what you can get and hand Valbuena the 2b job.

 

Then go out and get the best mid-level SP you can, maybe one mildly expensive BP arm, and you've got yourself a team with pretty much the same budget as the last two seasons but a bit better.

 

FA OF/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Lake, Random reserve OF)

Olt/Castro/Valbuena/Rizzo (Watkins, Vitters)

Castillo (some cheap vet)

 

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/FA SP/Arrieta

Russell/Strop/Grimm/Hendricks/Cabrera/a billion different guys

 

I think that should comfortably slot in to an 82-84 win projection so long as the bullpen is average, which I think is a reasonable hope.

 

The bad news is that it looks like there will be three better teams in the division, but you just need to have one of them go the way of the 2013 Giants or Nationals and you've got yourself in the fringes of contention.

[Sammy Sofa]

Way to hog 25% of the baseball posts, you jerk.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Way to hog 25% of the baseball posts, you jerk.

 

TT only felt like making three today. Nobody else was going to post anything interesting, so someone had to do something.

[Sammy Sofa]

That was like one step above a WSR post.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

That was like one step above a WSR post.

 

That's the nicest thing you've ever said to me.

[Backtobanks]

OK, if anyone accidentally clicks on this thread, I guess I'll post some random Cubs musings to make it slightly less a waste of a page and a half of posts.

 

I really, really like what the Cubs have done over the last month or so. Arrieta, Strop, Grimm and maybe Neil Ramirez go a long, long way toward addressing what was our biggest hole for 2014, the lack of pitching depth. We should be able to get a couple of decent (i.e. not sub-replacement) relievers out of that bunch, and maybe even a fifth starter. That takes a ton of the pressure off of our upcoming offseason in terms of finding a volume of useful pitchers.

 

Unless all those guys (and Hendricks, and Cabrera, and a few others) all turn out to be terrible, we should have a fairly decent team in 2014. Our pythagorean projection is right around 78-79 wins right now (right where a few of us optimists projected we'd be) and I'm fairly certain we can beat that projection by next spring.

 

In 2012, one of the stories of the season was just how inexplicably awful we were at finding successful bargain-basement and mid-level guys. That was something the front office had been really good at in Boston. They went back to normal pretty solidly this year, getting solid contributions offensively from Schierholtz, Hairston (if his BABIP hadn't messed him up), Valbuena, Navarro, Ransom, Sweeney. I'm pretty sure we can repeat that success again next year.

 

Losing Garza is going to sting, but we've got the money to replace him with someone in the same ballpark, presuming we can find such a pitcher available. It's not really going to be money so much as just limited supply that might keep us from getting a quality pitcher this offseason.

 

What I'm hoping is that we go out and get an outfielder this offseason, someone the equivalent of Edwin Jackson in price and quality, as our big piece. Either a CFer and push DeJesus to LF, or pretend that DeJesus is a CFer for another season. Unless Lake's magic continues the rest of the year, you can give him a bench role with the plan to give him 300-400 PAs.

 

We can mostly stand pat with the infield. Give Olt the 3b job unless he just continues to fall apart at Iowa, then trade Barney for what you can get and hand Valbuena the 2b job.

 

Then go out and get the best mid-level SP you can, maybe one mildly expensive BP arm, and you've got yourself a team with pretty much the same budget as the last two seasons but a bit better.

 

FA OF/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Lake, Random reserve OF)

Olt/Castro/Valbuena/Rizzo (Watkins, Vitters)

Castillo (some cheap vet)

 

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/FA SP/Arrieta

Russell/Strop/Grimm/Hendricks/Cabrera/a billion different guys

 

I think that should comfortably slot in to an 82-84 win projection so long as the bullpen is average, which I think is a reasonable hope.

 

The bad news is that it looks like there will be three better teams in the division, but you just need to have one of them go the way of the 2013 Giants or Nationals and you've got yourself in the fringes of contention.

 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about 82-84 win projection unless the FAs (OF & SP) really produce.

[Guest]

YOU GET RIGHT OUTTA TOWN

[Guest]

 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about 82-84 win projection unless the FAs (OF & SP) really produce.

 

 

Except right now this team has been about a 78 win team and the only thing lost is Garza (and Soriano's below average production) while adding players with the salary off the books and one can pretty reasonably expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo next year as well as a likely better bullpen.

[Cubswin11]

Adding Robinson Cano would fix some of those problems

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Adding Robinson Cano would fix some of those problems

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/nope.gif

[Backtobanks]

 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about 82-84 win projection unless the FAs (OF & SP) really produce.

 

 

Except right now this team has been about a 78 win team and the only thing lost is Garza (and Soriano's below average production) while adding players with the salary off the books and one can pretty reasonably expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo next year as well as a likely better bullpen.

 

Right now they are on a pace to win 74 games (with Garza and Soriano), so a below 70 win season is very likely. I would expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo, but there's a very real possibility that players like Schierholtz, Valbuena, and Wood might be less productive. Obviously it depends on the FAs signed (in your scenario) and hoping that Olt is productive enough to play 3B everyday.

[Guest]

 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about 82-84 win projection unless the FAs (OF & SP) really produce.

 

 

Except right now this team has been about a 78 win team and the only thing lost is Garza (and Soriano's below average production) while adding players with the salary off the books and one can pretty reasonably expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo next year as well as a likely better bullpen.

 

Right now they are on a pace to win 74 games (with Garza and Soriano), so a below 70 win season is very likely. I would expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo, but there's a very real possibility that players like Schierholtz, Valbuena, and Wood might be less productive. Obviously it depends on the FAs signed (in your scenario) and hoping that Olt is productive enough to play 3B everyday.

 

 

For our purposes, pythagorean wins mean more than their actual record.

 

Soriano is not very good and Garza was here for 10 starts.

[KingCubsFan]

OK, if anyone accidentally clicks on this thread, I guess I'll post some random Cubs musings to make it slightly less a waste of a page and a half of posts.

 

I really, really like what the Cubs have done over the last month or so. Arrieta, Strop, Grimm and maybe Neil Ramirez go a long, long way toward addressing what was our biggest hole for 2014, the lack of pitching depth. We should be able to get a couple of decent (i.e. not sub-replacement) relievers out of that bunch, and maybe even a fifth starter. That takes a ton of the pressure off of our upcoming offseason in terms of finding a volume of useful pitchers.

 

Unless all those guys (and Hendricks, and Cabrera, and a few others) all turn out to be terrible, we should have a fairly decent team in 2014. Our pythagorean projection is right around 78-79 wins right now (right where a few of us optimists projected we'd be) and I'm fairly certain we can beat that projection by next spring.

 

In 2012, one of the stories of the season was just how inexplicably awful we were at finding successful bargain-basement and mid-level guys. That was something the front office had been really good at in Boston. They went back to normal pretty solidly this year, getting solid contributions offensively from Schierholtz, Hairston (if his BABIP hadn't messed him up), Valbuena, Navarro, Ransom, Sweeney. I'm pretty sure we can repeat that success again next year.

 

Losing Garza is going to sting, but we've got the money to replace him with someone in the same ballpark, presuming we can find such a pitcher available. It's not really going to be money so much as just limited supply that might keep us from getting a quality pitcher this offseason.

 

What I'm hoping is that we go out and get an outfielder this offseason, someone the equivalent of Edwin Jackson in price and quality, as our big piece. Either a CFer and push DeJesus to LF, or pretend that DeJesus is a CFer for another season. Unless Lake's magic continues the rest of the year, you can give him a bench role with the plan to give him 300-400 PAs.

 

We can mostly stand pat with the infield. Give Olt the 3b job unless he just continues to fall apart at Iowa, then trade Barney for what you can get and hand Valbuena the 2b job.

 

Then go out and get the best mid-level SP you can, maybe one mildly expensive BP arm, and you've got yourself a team with pretty much the same budget as the last two seasons but a bit better.

 

FA OF/DeJesus/Schierholtz (Lake, Random reserve OF)

Olt/Castro/Valbuena/Rizzo (Watkins, Vitters)

Castillo (some cheap vet)

 

Samardzija/Jackson/Wood/FA SP/Arrieta

Russell/Strop/Grimm/Hendricks/Cabrera/a billion different guys

 

I think that should comfortably slot in to an 82-84 win projection so long as the bullpen is average, which I think is a reasonable hope.

 

The bad news is that it looks like there will be three better teams in the division, but you just need to have one of them go the way of the 2013 Giants or Nationals and you've got yourself in the fringes of contention.

I'd still really like to see them get Choo. I know he'll be 32 when the contract starts, but I think his skill set should age pretty well, to the point where he'll be pretty productive for 4 years of that contract.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Maybe I'm just a reckless optimist, but I'm not convinced this team is all that much worse than it was before the sell-offs, especially when you consider how little Garza had been healthy enough to contribute.

 

I think we should have a very good chance of avoiding 90 losses.

[davell]

I don't see a gigantic dropoff either. Not like last year for sure. We're much deeper and its not even close.

[Thed Hoyerstein]

While we all agree that Soriano's production was average, or even below-average, given his position, can't we expect some drop-off seeing as though his production is likely to be replaced by Lake's regression and some consortium of the Gillaspie/Sappelt pu pu platter?

 

I think we should also take into account the possibility of Russell and Gregg being dealt, as those two, as much as they have been struggling of late, helped solidify the bullpen in addition to the Guerrier and Strop moves.

 

From an optimist perspective, any lost value in the Soriano trade and potential Russell/Gregg trades could theoretically be covered by bounce backs from Castro (already seeing that in July), Rizzo, and EJax.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

If there's any dropoff from Soriano to his replacements, I think it's probably fractional.

 

Depending on which set of peripherals you believe in, we've been playing like a 78-82 win team all season that just happens to be on pace for 73 wins. After the selloff, I think we're closer to actually just being a 73-win team.

[Guest]

While we all agree that Soriano's production was average, or even below-average, given his position, can't we expect some drop-off seeing as though his production is likely to be replaced by Lake's regression and some consortium of the Gillaspie/Sappelt pu pu platter?

 

I think we should also take into account the possibility of Russell and Gregg being dealt, as those two, as much as they have been struggling of late, helped solidify the bullpen in addition to the Guerrier and Strop moves.

 

From an optimist perspective, any lost value in the Soriano trade and potential Russell/Gregg trades could theoretically be covered by bounce backs from Castro (already seeing that in July), Rizzo, and EJax.

 

With Schierholtz and DeJesus healthy, the other OF spot will likely be by committee, at least until Sweeney gets back at the end of August. While there is more potential for the bottom to fall out than otherwise, there's so many options vying for playing time that I think you'll see poor performances cycled out pretty quick.

 

As you mention, the much more important consideration for the rest of this year's win total is the bullpen. Gregg will be traded, and that will hurt a bit, although Russell/Strop/Parker/Guerrier/Bowden is better than what we dealt with early in the season. If Russell gets traded too, that's when you could see a spike in blown leads that might drive the team down to 90 losses and beyond.

[davell]

PSD would be a better board than NSBB except they insist on calling prospects "specs." That puts them like tied with BCB and barely above Cubs.com.

PSD has some quality posters, but the insiders and Yagyu's draft coverage are what keeps me going there.

[Backtobanks]

 

I think you're being pretty optimistic about 82-84 win projection unless the FAs (OF & SP) really produce.

 

 

Except right now this team has been about a 78 win team and the only thing lost is Garza (and Soriano's below average production) while adding players with the salary off the books and one can pretty reasonably expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo next year as well as a likely better bullpen.

 

Right now they are on a pace to win 74 games (with Garza and Soriano), so a below 70 win season is very likely. I would expect better production out of Castro and Rizzo, but there's a very real possibility that players like Schierholtz, Valbuena, and Wood might be less productive. Obviously it depends on the FAs signed (in your scenario) and hoping that Olt is productive enough to play 3B everyday.

 

 

For our purposes, pythagorean wins mean more than their actual record.

 

Soriano is not very good and Garza was here for 10 starts.

 

Maybe for your purposes, but not mine. I don't want the Cubs to be a 95 pythagorean win team, I want them to actually win 95 games.

[Guest]

YOU GET RIGHT OUTTA TOWN