NCAA Mock Tourney Selection 2013

[bukie]

Three more auto bids tonight:

#1 South Dakota State vs #3 North Dakota State (South Dakota State 57%) for the Summit title.

#1 Valparaiso vs #3 Wright State (Valparaiso 79%) for the Horizon title.

#3 LIU Brooklyn vs #5 Mount St Mary's (LIU Brooklyn 66%) for the NEC title.

 

Four more conference tourneys start today:

-- WAC (KP #26 Denver is a 56.3% favorite...and the 2 seed)

-- SWAC (KP #163 Southern is a 81.1% favorite)

-- Big East (KP #3 Louisville is a 49.8% favorite...and also the 2 seed)

-- MWC (KP #34 UNLV is a 31.3% favorite despite being the 3 seed, because they're at home)

[bukie]

LIU Brooklyn cruised to the NEC title.

[bukie]

South Dakota State wins the Summit. Valpo wins the Horizon.

[bukie]

2 hours to get the initial lists to me.

[bukie]

5 more minutes, here's my lists:

 

 

Team: Illinois

 

Locks:

Florida

Indiana

Louisville

Duke

Pittsburgh

Ohio State

Kansas

Michigan State

Michigan

Wisconsin

Syracuse

Georgetown

Miami

St Louis

Colorado State

New Mexico

Oklahoma State

VCU

Minnesota

Missouri

Marquette

Arizona

UCLA

Notre Dame

UNLV

Kansas State

 

Consider:

Virginia

St. Mary's

San Diego State

Denver

UNC

Iowa

Middle Tennessee

Wichita State

Iowa State

Kentucky

Memphis

North Carolina State

Cincinnati

Baylor

Stanford

Mississippi

Colorado

Boise State

Villanova

Oklahoma

La Salle

Oregon

California

Butler

Providence

Southern Miss

Akron

Tennessee

Maryland

Temple

 

Top 16:

1. Indiana

2. Duke

3. Louisville

4. Gonzaga

5. Florida

6. Kansas

7. Ohio State

8. Georgetown

9. Michigan

10. Michigan State

11. Miami

12. Marquette

13. Wisconsin

14. New Mexico

15. St. Louis

16. Syracuse

 

[bukie]

LOCKS (25):

 

Arizona

Colorado State

Duke

Florida

Georgetown

Illinois

Indiana

Kansas

Kansas State

Louisville

Marquette

Miami

Michigan

Michigan State

Minnesota

New Mexico

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Oklahoma State

Pittsburgh

St Louis

Syracuse

UCLA

VCU

Wisconsin

 

 

CONSIDERATION (43):

 

Air Force

Akron

Alabama

Arizona State

Arkansas

BYU

Baylor

Boise State

Bucknell

Butler

California

Cincinnati

Colorado

Dayton

Denver

Iowa

Iowa State

Kentucky

La Salle

Louisiana Tech

Maryland

Memphis

Middle Tennessee

Mississippi

Missouri

North Carolina

North Carolina State

Oklahoma

Oregon

Providence

San Diego State

Southern Miss

St. Mary's

Stanford

Stephen F Austin

Temple

Tennessee

UNLV

Umass

Villanova

Virginia

Washington

Wichita State

 

 

I'll get to the rest a bit later, but here ended up being the top 12 (complete now):

#  Team         1-25  -50  -100  -200  201+  R/N   AVG   NC    Top W     Top L
A  Duke         5-2   4-1  5-1   11-0  2-0   11-4  86    96    G,H,L     H
B  Florida      3-2   3-2  7-2   5-0   6-0   9-6   111   125           
C  Georgetown   4-3   3-1  6-0   5-1   6-0   8-4   106   174   G         E
D  Gonzaga      4-0   3-1  6-1   7-0   8-0   16-1  131   114           
E  Indiana      7-3   3-1  4-1   5-0   7-0   9-3   101   171   C,2I,2J,L L
F  Kansas       3-2   8-2  5-0   3-0   7-1   10-4  109   121   L         J
G  Louisville   4-3   4-2  5-0   10-0  3-0   11-4  95    133             A,C
H  Miami        3-2   3-0  4-1   11-3  2-0   10-5  98    122   A,J       A
I  Michigan     4-5   5-0  3-0   7-1   5-0   8-5   101   169   J,L       2E,J,L
J  Michigan St  6-6   3-0  3-1   6-0   4-0   7-6   87    146   F,K,L     2E,H,I,L
K  New Mexico   2-1   5-2  9-1   9-1   1-0   11-4  90    109           
L  Ohio State   5-6   2-1  2-0   8-0   6-0   7-5   104   181   E,I,J     A,E,F,I,J  	             	       	   

 

AVG is average rating of opponent, NC is average rating of non-con opponent. The data gathering takes a bit.

Edited March 13, 2013 by bukie

[bukie]

Next for today:

1) Rank that top 12 in order. I will fill in rest of stats later.

2) Rank your next 12 in order from locks, considerations and auto bids (which I will, again, post later).

3) Top 16 considerations (in order), since there are at least 12 at large bids available

4) Bottom 16 considerations (in order), since there are not 43 at large bids available

5) Lowest 12 auto bids (again, in order), to fill in the bottom of the bracket.

 

Remember, don't include your team in your votes. I am factoring that in automatically.

[bukie]

Here are the auto bids. For conferences that have not yet completed their tournament, the odds on favorite is listed in parentheses:

Auto Bids (31):

America East - (Vermont)

Atlantic 10 - (VCU)

ACC - (Duke)

Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12 - (Kansas)

Big East - (Louisville)

Big Sky - (Weber State)

Big South - Liberty

Big Ten - (Indiana)

Big West - (Pacific)

CAA - James Madison

C-USA - (Memphis)

Horizon - Valparaiso

Ivy - Harvard

MAAC - Iona

MAC - (Akron)

MEAC - (NC Central)

MVC - Creighton

MWC - (UNLV)

NEC - LIU Brooklyn

OVC - Belmont

Pac-12 - (Arizona)

Patriot - (Bucknell)

SEC - (Florida)

Southern - Davidson

Southland - (Stephen F Austin)

SWAC - (Southern)

Summit - South Dakota State

Sun Belt - Western Kentucky

WCC - Gonzaga

WAC - (Denver)

Edited March 13, 2013 by bukie

[bukie]

I am going to try to do a stats breakdown on the auto bids too, because it will look hilarious in comparison to the top 12 (mostly).

[Exile on Waveland]

AVG is average rating of opponent . . . The data gathering takes a bit.

 

Besides the "thank you" for compiling that data, I find it pretty amazing how closely clumped the average rating of opponent is for the teams listed.

 

Edit: I was a bit premature because this post was prior to you finishing, but the point still mostly stands.

Edited March 13, 2013 by Exile on Waveland

[bukie]

Finished the stats on the top 12. New Mexico and the MWC are masters of non con scheduling to game the RPI. Only one opponent outside the top 200.

[bukie]

AVG is average rating of opponent . . . The data gathering takes a bit.

 

Besides the "thank you" for compiling that data, I find it pretty amazing how closely clumped the average rating of opponent is for the teams listed.

Yeah, with the MWC not really having any bad teams, and Duke, Kansas, Miami and Florida scheduling non-con better than usual, the overall opponent ratings are pretty close for everyone. Except for Gonzaga, which had the fun of 3 terrible teams at the back end of their conference (instead of 2, like the Big 12).

[bukie]

Updated the OP with all the latest data/info so it's all in one place.

[bukie]

One bid decided tonight:

#1 Bucknell vs #2 Lafayette (Bucknell 86%) for the Patriot title.

 

Five more conference tournaments start today:

-- Pac-12 (KP #19 Arizona is a 30.1% favorite despite the 4 seed, but it's really kind of a crapshoot overall)

-- Big 12 (KP #8 Kansas is a 54.2% favorite)

-- CUSA (KP #38 Memphis is a 48.1% favorite)

-- Southland (KP #72 Stephen F Austin is a 69.2% favorite)

-- SEC (KP #1 Florida is a 73.2% favorite)

[Andy]

I'm on the road and won't be back till late tonight. Should be able to get that list in by midnight, just a heads-up.

[bukie]

I'm on the road and won't be back till late tonight. Should be able to get that list in by midnight, just a heads-up.

It should be ok. 3 am is the new midnight for some, apparently.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm on the road and won't be back till late tonight. Should be able to get that list in by midnight, just a heads-up.

It should be ok. 3 am is the new midnight for some, apparently.

 

There's nothing new about that.

[SouthSideRyan]

Sorry bukie

[bukie]

Meh, it was fine. Just knocked out a couple of locks, the top 12 was already pretty set overall.

[bukie]

Potential one-bid leagues (23): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, CAA, C-USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, MVC, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SoCon, Southland, SWAC, Summit, Sun Belt, WAC, WCC

 

So other than the 12 at-large bids to be filled, there exists the possibility of an additional 8 from the A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, MWC, Pac 12 and SEC.

 

So, 20 of the 41 teams under consideration could make the tournament.

[bukie]

Bucknell wins the Patriot league.

 

Here are the stats on all the potential auto-only bid leagues:

Team                        1-25    -50     -100    -200    -300    301+    R/N     AVG     NC
America East (Vermont)      0-0     0-0     1-2     5-6     8-2     6-0     11-6    205     173
FL Gulf Coast (A-Sun)       1-2     0-1     0-1     5-1     12-2    4-3     9-9     224     169
Big Sky - (Weber State)     0-0     0-0     1-1     3-2     12-1    6-1     10-4    247     165
Liberty (Big South)         0-1     0-0     0-3     2-4     8-9     2-3     7-13    224     174
Big West - (Pacific)        1-2     0-0     1-2     10-7    3-1     2-0     6-10    162     91
James Madison (CAA)         0-0     0-1     0-2     7-8     10-3    3-0     10-10   202     202
C-USA - (Memphis)           0-3     0-0     5-1     14-0    4-0     4-0     10-3    154     148
Valparaiso (Horizon)        0-1     0-1     1-1     12-2    9-2     3-0     10-5    183     194
Harvard (Ivy)               0-1     0-1     1-4     6-2     9-1     1-0     6-8     172     128
Iona (MAAC)                 0-0     1-0     1-2     12-8    6-3     0-0     9-12    159     131
MAC - (Akron)               0-2     1-0     4-1     6-2     10-1    2-0     9-5     173     147
MEAC - (NC Central)         0-1     0-1     0-1     1-3     11-2    7-0     10-6    238     168
Creighton (MVC)             1-1     2-2     8-2     11-2    3-0     2-0     12-5    121     134
LIU Brooklyn (NEC)          0-0     0-1     0-1     5-5     8-5     7-1     7-9     223     196
Belmont (OVC)               0-2     2-0     1-0     8-4     8-0     5-0     13-6    179     127
Patriot - (Bucknell)        0-1     0-0     4-2     10-2    9-0     4-0     14-4    185     150
Davidson (SoCon)            0-2     0-1     2-0     5-2     14-2    4-0     14-6    213     124
Southland - (SF Austin)     0-0     1-0     0-0     7-2     7-1     7-0     11-3    243     168
SWAC - (Southern)           0-0     0-1     0-1     2-4     2-2     14-1    9-9     262     151
S. Dakota State (Summit)    0-1     1-1     2-2     4-1     8-3     7-1     12-9    200     168
West. Kentucky (Sun Belt)   0-2     0-3     0-1     7-5     7-4     4-0     9-11    190     146
WAC - (Denver)              0-1     0-1     3-6     7-0     7-0     3-0     8-6     165     136
Gonzaga (WCC)               4-0     3-1     6-1     7-0     8-0     0-0     16-1    131     114

 

Notice how similar Memphis's profile is to, say, Denver.

[Vanilla Ice]

Memphis' and Denver's profiles have much more separation when you use RPI and not KP, though

[CubInOK]

I will not be able to get my picks in tonight. Sorry.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Mountain West is seriously making this such a [expletive] mess for me.

[bukie]

My selections for round 2:

 

TOP 12:

1. Indiana

2. Duke

3. Louisville

4. Gonzaga

5. Kansas

6. Michigan

7. Georgetown

8. Michigan State

9. Ohio State

10. Florida

11. Miami

12. New Mexico

 

NEXT 12:

Marquette

Wisconsin

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

Oklahoma State

VCU

Syracuse

Kansas State

Creighton

Arizona

Minnesota

Colorado State

 

TOP 16 CONSIDER:

1. UNLV

2. Missouri

3. North Carolina

4. Butler

5. North Carolina State

6. San Diego State

7. Oklahoma

8. Memphis

9. Iowa State

10. St. Mary's

11. Wichita State

12. Kentucky

13. Cincinnati

14. Boise State

15. Middle Tennessee

16. La Salle

 

BOTTOM 16 CONSIDER:

1. Stephen F Austin

2. BYU

3. Washington

4. Louisiana Tech

5. Southern Miss

6. UMass

7. Bucknell

8. Arkansas

9. Maryland

10. Providence

11. Dayton

12. Arizona State

13. Akron

14. Air Force

15. Alabama

16. Tennessee

 

BOTTOM 12 AUTO

1. Liberty (Big South)

2. SWAC (Southern)

3. MEAC (NC Central)

4. America East (Vermont)

5. LIU Brooklyn (NEC)

6. James Madison (CAA)

7. Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)

8. Florida Gulf Coast (A-Sun)

9. Big West (Pacific)

10. Big Sky (Weber State)

11. Valparaiso (Horizon)

12. Harvard (Ivy)